Predictions are Tough (especially about the future)

[HAguiar95]

1. Yes.

2. Over (200/4 - PO on 4th year).

3. Over (BAE).

4. Trade down.

5. Coulibaly.

6. Ayton.

7. No.

8. Over the first apron

9. Bertans

10. J. Carter (Tax-MLE), D. Powell (BAE).

Irving/Carter
Green/Hardy
Bullock/Coulibaly
Doncic/Kleber
Ayton/Powell

[mvossman]

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  ___________
AYTON ...I cringe as I write it, but it's such a Cuban move to go for the big name with the bad contract. I like Claxton of course, if available, and the Capella ideas, much better than Ayton. And I think the price they ask and Cuban gives for him will be a killer for the Mavs' chances to assemble a really strong team around Luka.

Totally agree on this.  The only center option in the same ballpark of likelihood is Capela.  He will cost less assets, less cap space and provide more defense, but Cuban loves big names.

[Mavs2021]

I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N ---> YES

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U --> OVER

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U --> OVER

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade --> KEEP

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)? Whoever is available at #10 between Walker, Hendricks and Black.  Otherwise Wallace (depending on his medicals), followed by Hawkins.

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  --> Mo Bamba (traded for Joel).

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N ---> NO

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 2.
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  _____JOEL (traded for Mo Bamba)_________ 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? _____Jalen McDaniels____________

Pretty confident on 1+2+3+7+9.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Pretty confident on 1+2+3+7+9.

Jo-Well for Bamba is an interesting thought.

[SleepingHero]

1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Yes

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  Over- Full Max 4 years

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract? Hesitant push here. Think he gets a new deal right around 3-4 mil and they spit the tax MLE

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Trade (in a deal that many probably think is an overpay)

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  NA

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July? Deandre Ayton

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Yes, but not by the Mavericks.

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
  Between the LT and first apron 

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July? Tim Hardaway Jr.- traded. Bertans-waived.  

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? Does Dwight Powell count? If not then Torrey Craig- 4ish mil. 

[Jason Terry]

Bump. This is awesome

Thinking it over now…….. It’s hard to come to terms with what the mavs will probably do vs. what they should do.

Will we really do a complete 180 and emphasize drafting in a real way vs being the team most willing to throw away picks over the last decades?

I have doubts. It’s clear that trading down is the best move. If they trade out though……i would have issues with that. We need some type of youth movement

Will we stay away from the flashy names and go directly to adding the best fits? I have my doubts

Will we look for value instead of being narrow-minded? I have doubts

Will we actually target defenders? Do they finally see this as a problem? I have doubts

I really want to believe

[DanSchwartzgan]

Bump. This is awesome

Thinking it over now…….. It’s hard to come to terms with what the mavs will probably do vs. what they should do.

Will we really do a complete 180 and emphasize drafting in a real way vs being the team most willing to throw away picks over the last decades?

I have doubts. It’s clear that trading down is the best move. If they trade out though……i would have issues with that. We need some type of youth movement

Will we stay away from the flashy names and go directly to adding the best fits? I have my doubts

Will we look for value instead of being narrow-minded? I have doubts

Will we actually target defenders? Do they finally see this as a problem? I have doubts

I really want to believe

Much of this depends on what we think of Nico and how much we are able to let past wounds and disappointments go.  Nico is the relationship guy and part of relationships is AAU coaches and college coaches (and G-League coaches) and any host of people with a good eye for talent.  We turned the 37th pick last year into someone who is arguably a top 10 guy in his draft class.  Something changed because it wasn’t that long ago we totally whiffed on two second rounders in the same draft that were higher than 37.

If we are willing to give Nico a little rope based on Hardy, then getting a top 10 talent doesn’t necessarily mean using a top 10 pick to do it.  That’s an element of why I’m comfortable moving down (but not out) from 10 if it does other things for us (like rids us of some salary, gets us a veteran big AND permits us to make a value pick or two).  It doesn’t have to be #15 for me either.  What if 10 for 15 got us Capela for Bertans.  Then we do the Bojan deal and get the first pick in the second round.  Capela, Bojan and someone of the same value as Hardy with 31?  We could call it a summer at that point…especially if 31 was a big wing who can defend and hit 3’s.

[Scott41theMavs]

Much of this depends on what we think of Nico and how much we are able to let past wounds and disappointments go.  Nico is the relationship guy and part of relationships is AAU coaches and college coaches (and G-League coaches) and any host of people with a good eye for talent.  We turned the 37th pick last year into someone who is arguably a top 10 guy in his draft class.  Something changed because it wasn’t that long ago we totally whiffed on two second rounders in the same draft that were higher than 37.

If we are willing to give Nico a little rope based on Hardy, then getting a top 10 talent doesn’t necessarily mean using a top 10 pick to do it.  That’s an element of why I’m comfortable moving down (but not out) from 10 if it does other things for us (like rids us of some salary, gets us a veteran big AND permits us to make a value pick or two).  It doesn’t have to be #15 for me either.  What if 10 for 15 got us Capela for Bertans.  Then we do the Bojan deal and get the first pick in the second round.  Capela, Bojan and someone of the same value as Hardy with 31?  We could call it a summer at that point…especially if 31 was a big wing who can defend and hit 3’s.

Scouting is everything. If their guy is at 10, you draft there. If he's at 15, you draft there. If you like someone who is a secret home run at 31, great. 

The thing is, I think "Jason Terry" is grossly underestimating the value of rookie scale deals in the new CBA. And don't talk to me about second or third year guys - they either aren't going to be available, or they're going to be Justin Jackson types. You hit on your picks. They can't afford not to.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

I love threads like this because we can have fun years from now.

Not to thread hijack, but this thread reminds me of showdown I had with Mike "The Hack" Fisher back in 2013. He used to constantly push for premium memberships without actually doing anything more than soft speculating "I predict tomorrow there will be...weather." I just wanted him to put out something and stick by it. So I challenged him in early June and literally pulled out of my ass, "The Mavs will sign OJ Mayo and Darren Collison". It was total dart throw. Fish never made a prediction. The day after those guys signed he wrote a post saying those guys were always on the Mavs radar.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

Much of this depends on what we think of Nico and how much we are able to let past wounds and disappointments go.  Nico is the relationship guy and part of relationships is AAU coaches and college coaches (and G-League coaches) and any host of people with a good eye for talent.  We turned the 37th pick last year into someone who is arguably a top 10 guy in his draft class.  Something changed because it wasn’t that long ago we totally whiffed on two second rounders in the same draft that were higher than 37.

If we are willing to give Nico a little rope based on Hardy, then getting a top 10 talent doesn’t necessarily mean using a top 10 pick to do it.  That’s an element of why I’m comfortable moving down (but not out) from 10 if it does other things for us (like rids us of some salary, gets us a veteran big AND permits us to make a value pick or two).  It doesn’t have to be #15 for me either.  What if 10 for 15 got us Capela for Bertans.  Then we do the Bojan deal and get the first pick in the second round.  Capela, Bojan and someone of the same value as Hardy with 31?  We could call it a summer at that point…especially if 31 was a big wing who can defend and hit 3’s.

I've had the same thoughts on Nico.  It's like he's Sonny Vicarro had he gone into a front office.  Basketball is a relationship business.  He has established connections who will tell him the truth.  I also think he's similar to Jimmy Johnson.  A big reason Jimmy was so successful in the early 90's at drafting is that he'd spent years recruiting and, therefore, had added insight into the players.  The longer he was away from college, the less successful he was at drafting.  It will be interesting if this plays out the same for Nico.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I've had the same thoughts on Nico.  It's like he's Sonny Vicarro had he gone into a front office.  Basketball is a relationship business.  He has established connections who will tell him the truth.  I also think he's similar to Jimmy Johnson.  A big reason Jimmy was so successful in the early 90's at drafting is that he'd spent years recruiting and, therefore, had added insight into the players.  The longer he was away from college, the less successful he was at drafting.  It will be interesting if this plays out the same for Nico.

Interesting theory on Jimmy.  Sonny Vicarro had the kind of connections (and an eye) that I’m talking about.  My favorite part of that movie was him breaking down the game winning shot when Michael was a freshman.  I’d never noticed any of that or seen anyone break it down like that.  It was really cool.

[Mavs2021]

Scouting is everything. If their guy is at 10, you draft there. If he's at 15, you draft there. If you like someone who is a secret home run at 31, great. 

The thing is, I think "Jason Terry" is grossly underestimating the value of rookie scale deals in the new CBA. And don't talk to me about second or third year guys - they either aren't going to be available, or they're going to be Justin Jackson types. You hit on your picks. They can't afford not to.

Oh there was a time, when suddenly half the 2017 draft class became availabe:

Ball
Markkanen
Monk
J. Collins
J. Allen
Kuzma
J. Hart

plus Fultz, Kennard, Z. Collins and so on...

All these players went for cheap or/and were readily available, but Mavs gotta have Dwight Powell and THJ instead. All I took was TWO smart moves that cost about two first round picks. Jarrett Allen and Lauri Markkanen instead of THJ/Powell. Jarrett Allen was a throw-away piece in the Harden deal and Markkanen begged the Mavs to make a move for him. But hey Cuban still winning the Porzingis and Rondo trades.

Doncic/Dinwiddie
Brunson/Green
DFS/Bullock
Markkanen/Kleber
Allen/X

You think we´d have had a legit shot at the Warriors in 21/22 with that rotation.

[Jason Terry]

Much of this depends on what we think of Nico and how much we are able to let past wounds and disappointments go.  Nico is the relationship guy and part of relationships is AAU coaches and college coaches (and G-League coaches) and any host of people with a good eye for talent.  We turned the 37th pick last year into someone who is arguably a top 10 guy in his draft class.  Something changed because it wasn’t that long ago we totally whiffed on two second rounders in the same draft that were higher than 37.

If we are willing to give Nico a little rope based on Hardy, then getting a top 10 talent doesn’t necessarily mean using a top 10 pick to do it.  That’s an element of why I’m comfortable moving down (but not out) from 10 if it does other things for us (like rids us of some salary, gets us a veteran big AND permits us to make a value pick or two).  It doesn’t have to be #15 for me either.  What if 10 for 15 got us Capela for Bertans.  Then we do the Bojan deal and get the first pick in the second round.  Capela, Bojan and someone of the same value as Hardy with 31?  We could call it a summer at that point…especially if 31 was a big wing who can defend and hit 3’s.

I’m with you on everything. I like Nico and he needs a chance. Hardy is enough reason for optimism. When was the last time we did something like that? (Target a player and hit) 

Im also encouraged by the Lindsey hiring. Another adult in the room. I feel more comfortable making trades with him around 

Kyrie is also a relationships guy. Players love him. I think he’s another source of optimism 

Im firmly invested in what we do in the next few weeks. More nervous because it’s such a pivotal summer

[ItsGoTime]

1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  U, I think the sweet spot ends up being $40M to start. Gives Kyrie a raise from this year salary and gives the Mavs wiggle room. I think the question is 4 or 5 years. I also am hoping for the salary to not have raises in it.

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  U

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  Lively

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Capela

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  N

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
    2. Between the LT and first apron.
    

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  THJ

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? Grant Williams

[Chicagojk]

ItsGotime...that was going to be my guess.  Stein saying the Mavs wanted to re-set their center position made me think they are looking at more than one change.   I am always wrong though.  So I will go with another one that I believe will be wrong.   Trading with Orlando for Issac and 36 would be on my wish list, but we really need a bidding war for 10.


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  Under
3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  I am going to say under

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  Lively

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July? Precious

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Yes.  Going against the grain. 

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
  the salary cap stuff is over my head.  
    

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  Bullock, McGee, Bertans (waived)

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)?  Haven't settled on a player yet.

[Luka77]

I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  __________

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  ___________

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  ______________ 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? _________________

1. Yes 
2. Over even though it should be the Luka Max 
3. Over, MC loves him some Powell.
4. Trade bc I don't think the player I/Mavs want will be their and they do something dumb like the Capela trade down.
5. Gradey Dick
6.Capela
7. Yes, over MLE
8. Over the first apron 
9. Wood
10. Kyrie (is this cheating.lol)

[IamDougieFresh]

1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N  Y

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U O

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U U

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  Leonard Miller

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Capela

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N N

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: Between
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  Bertans 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? Barnes

[Hypermav]

1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season? Oh yeah

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract? less than 41 million to start. Will match Luka.

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract? over

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10? Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make Wallace

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July? Capela

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE? N

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be:

3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July? _Bertans_____________

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? _Powell________________

[Halfnir]

1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Yes, at least the first half of the season (up to trade deadline)

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  Under (slightly)

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  Over 

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10? Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  no pick

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Dwight Powell

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Yes

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be:  2. Between the LT and first apron 
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  Maxi Kleber

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? Kyrie Irving

[Jason Terry]

I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N
Yes
2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U
Under
3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U
Under
4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade
Trade
5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  __________
Trade down to 15. Jordan Hawkins
6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  ___________
Capela
7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N
No
8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron
2. Between LT and first apron 
9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  ______________ 
Bertans
10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? _________________
Jaxson Hayes tax MLE

I have us doing the Hawks deal. Bertans and 10 for Capela and 15. Select Jordan Hawkins at 15. Sign and trade with Boston, Bullock for Grant Williams. Sign Jaxson Hayes to the exception 

1. Luka 
2. Kyrie
3. Green
4. Hardy
5. Maxi
6. THJ
7. Mcgee
8. Capela
9. G Williams 
10. Hayes
11. Hawkins
12. Kevin Love vet min
13. Powell vet min
14. Theo
15. Rookie FA

I really like Naz Reid and i think he could be had for full MLE and a starter promise. I don’t think we do it though. My ideal offseason would have us not get a dino-Big like Capela at all. Load up on big wings. Draft prospects i like down from 10  are Leonard Miller, Clowney, Max Lewis, Jaquez, O-Max Prosper. I would be thrilled to be wrong today