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Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - Printable Version

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Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - DanSchwartzgan - 06-02-2023

I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  __________

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  ___________

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  ______________ 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? _________________


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - ItsGoTime - 06-02-2023

I know what is meant by question #2, for accuracy’s sake, might want the question to ask first year salary.


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - DallasMaverick - 06-02-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  U

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  __N/A________

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  __Naz Reid_________

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  N

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
  
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  __ Markieff Morris_____ 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? __Naz Reid______________



RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - BigDirk41 - 06-02-2023

I started to answer all of these and realized how little faith I have in the Mavs to do the right thing. I hope they change my mind.


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - omahen - 06-02-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  N/A

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Ayton

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  N

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
    1. Under the LT 
    

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  Green 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? Craig



RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - IamDougieFresh - 06-02-2023

I’m going to wait until like the day before the draft to convince myself that the Mavs will make good decisions. What can I say? I’m ready to be hurt again.


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - loki - 06-02-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Yes

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  Over

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  Over

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  N/A

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Gafford

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  No

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be:
    2. Between the LT and first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  Bullock

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? Kyrie. If it has to be a non-Mav, Bates-Diop.



RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - ballsrchr - 06-02-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N

I hope...no.

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U

I hope...under

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U

I hope...under.

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade

I hope...keep.

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  Only ADEE knows.  I think that was some sewer cleanout company in the stone ages.  Still...who knows what they are going to do?

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  ___________

I don't know, but I hope we have one...

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N

I think...yes.

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron--This.  Because they have no idea how to manage money versus personell

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  ______________ 

I hope...THJ, Bertans, Bullock, Mcgee.  I know you said one, but we've got so much to choose from...

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)?

I don't know.  Does anyone?

Yes....there are a lot of hopes in this, but who in the hell knows what the Mavericks will do?  I don't.


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - ItsGoTime - 06-02-2023

Winner(s) of this will get a “Nostradamus” title.


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - DallasMaverick - 06-02-2023

(06-02-2023, 12:28 PM)ballsrchr Wrote: Yes....there are a lot of hopes in this, but who in the hell knows what the Mavericks will do?  I don't.

A big bag of "Give Up"


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - mvossman - 06-02-2023

1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N  Y

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U  O

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U  O

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade  Trade

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  ____N/A______

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  ______Ayton_____

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N   N

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be:   2
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  _____Bullock_________ 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? _Kyrie and Powell, but if you mean non Mav, then Crowder


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - ThisIStheYear - 06-02-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:


1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N N Sign and trade for Maxey and Harris (and Philly is nuts for entertaining this idea)

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U O. Always take the over.

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U. Over

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade. Keep

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  __________Lively. Lively, Miller, or Coulibaly would all work for me, but the Mavs have a massive, gaping hole at center. This exercise made me realize that hole is even bigger than I thought. The Mavs may be forced to take Lively to even have a viable player at the position.

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Lively___________

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N No

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: Between
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  ______________ Kyrie. But the Mavs will more than recoup what they gave up for him.

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? _________________DP is back baby!  



RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - StepBackJay - 06-02-2023

Challenge accepted: https://medium.com/mavsforum/we-take-on-danschwartzgans-challenge-predicting-the-future-on-mavsboard-com-5248bc5863a4


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - DanSchwartzgan - 06-03-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N.   YES

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U. UNDER

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U.    OVER

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade.     TRADE (down)

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  CLOWNEY

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  CAPELA

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N. NO

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be:   2. BETWEEN LT and 1st APRON
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  HARDAWAY 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum?  DiVincenzo 



RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - Scott41theMavs - 06-03-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N Lulz of course not.

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U U because he'll have to take a pay cut to go to a team that isn't the Mavs.

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U O because Mark can't quit him.

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade Trade 10 and pick lower

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  Lively - the Mavs hope, but there's a good chance they get Giannised.

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Lively - or Maxi, if they fluff the draft.

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N N because bigs gotta play defense and that ain't him. He's Bertans with some hops.

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 1 due to Kyrie jumping ship
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  THJ 

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? Brooks at an overpay b/c that's so Cuban



RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - ballsrchr - 06-03-2023

(06-02-2023, 02:55 PM)DallasMaverick Wrote: A big bag of "Give Up"

Nope.  I haven't given up on the Mavs for 43 years.  Perhaps...a little cynical--at the moment.


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - DanSchwartzgan - 06-03-2023

Interesting that we often see Powell penciled in at the minimum by people here, but so far very few have taken the under on $4mm.  I thought about setting it at $7mm, but was influenced down by my interpretation of board sentiment.  $7mm may have been the more challenging number to decide over or under.


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - F Gump - 06-03-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I thought it would be interesting to post a 10 question test regarding the draft and free agency and see how people do.  Please answer before the draft.  If you post more than one guess (as things change between now and then), please let us know which is your "Sheet of Integrity".  This is intended to be what you 'think' will happen as opposed to what you 'want' to happen.  Each question is worth 10 points.  Six of the questions are simple Yes/No or Over/Under.  Four of the questions require a name.  Good Luck:

1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Y/N
YES ...Cuban won't let his new high-priced toy get away. This is just like KP.

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  O/U
OVER ... While I think "same as Luka or less" is the right number, I don't think Cuban has the negotiating skill to keep from overpaying. I hope to be proven wrong on this one.

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  O/U
OVER ...and I don't assume he will be a Mav next year

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Keep/Trade
TRADE ... I wish the Mavs would keep the pick if it's a really good prospect at the right position, but I think they are too enamored of what they can get by trading down (or out) of pick 10 to stay at 10

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  __________
LIVELY? ....It mostly depends on where they pick and who is available, of course, and I would hope for a trade down rather than a trade out of the 1st round.

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  ___________
AYTON ...I cringe as I write it, but it's such a Cuban move to go for the big name with the bad contract. I like Claxton of course, if available, and the Capella ideas, much better than Ayton. And I think the price they ask and Cuban gives for him will be a killer for the Mavs' chances to assemble a really strong team around Luka.

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Y/N
NO ... I think his best play for an over-MLE contract would be with Mavs working with him on a SNT, but I think that adds too much salary to the Mavs payroll to have much of a shot at happening. IMO his expectation that he's an All-Star-in-waiting and his new team needs to help accommodate that will work against him in a big way.

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
    1. Under the LT 
    2. Between the LT and first apron 
    3. Over the first apron
2 BETWEEN  

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  ______________ 
BERTANS ... Because of the cap crunch, I think he's a lock to be stretch-waived

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? _________________
KYRIE ... He's a free agent. I hope they have a big MLE too and use it, and would want someone like Torrey Craig. (It would be a finesse move if the Mavs could roll Craig into an Ayton trade rather than have to use some or all of the MLE.) 

My guesses above.


RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - SkenfromLMF - 06-03-2023

(06-02-2023, 08:16 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: 1. Will Kyrie remain a Dallas Maverick next season?  Yes to start

2. Will Kyrie make over or under $41mm in the first year of his next contract?  U

3. Will Dwight Powell make over or under $4mm on his next contract?  U

4. Will the Mavericks keep or trade the player taken at #10?  Trade (B4 THE DRAFT)

5. Who will the Mavericks draft with whatever first round pick they make (N/A if no pick)?  Have to pick someone in 1st rd: Lively

6. Who will be presumed to be the Mavericks starting center in Mid-July?  Powell/Maxi

7. Will Christian Wood get a contract over the full MLE?  Yes (from Dallas)

8. Will the Mavericks total salary to start the season be: 
   
    3. Over the first apron

9. Name one current Maverick player who will be traded or waived by mid-July?  THJ

10. Who will the Mavericks sign (if anyone) in free agency above the minimum (N/A if none)? N/A



RE: Predictions are Tough (especially about the future) - ItsGoTime - 06-03-2023

(06-03-2023, 06:24 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: Interesting that we often see Powell penciled in at the minimum by people here, but so far very few have taken the under on $4mm.  I thought about setting it at $7mm, but was influenced down by my interpretation of board sentiment.  $7mm may have been the more challenging number to decide over or under.
There is almost always a difference between what Cuban should do and what he probably will do. Cuban might be Dwight’s best agent. Imagine the money he would have had had he not had to pay one!