DFS II: Return of the Doe-Doe

[F Gump]

I don't believe there could be a deal on draft night...
IF I were the Mavericks you see if BKN would take C-Wood in a S&T for DFS.
I know there are a lot of Ben Simmons hate mongers amongst us, but a draft night trade of Bullock, Bertans and McGee and the '27 FRP for Simmons and #22 with a gentleman's agreement that Wood is S&T'd for DFS (after 7/1) with Wood getting the fewest guaranteed years possible, but salary fitting in the window between DFS' $14 million in 23-24 and the 5 million BKN saves from the Dallas package, coming off of Simmons. Brooklyn then can S/W Bertans and Bullock and be looking at being under the aprons for 23-24, and a MAJOR player in FA for the Summer of '24.

That's awful!! There is no value in getting Simmons. You just get the privilege of paying a massive salary. And you give up an unprotected future pick too? Goodness. Hard pass.

[SwisherPrice]

Time to move on from DFS and other limited 3 and D players (Bullock) as starters/big minute rotation guys. The league is shifting to where you have to be more of a threat overall on offense instead of just standing around and waiting to shoot. The two teams in the Finals showed that almost everyone on the floor needs to be able to not only shoot but also be able to attack off the pass. That doesn't necessarily mean being able to create your shot in an ISO situation but if the ball swings, you need to be able to have some skills to do something with the ball.

[ItsGoTime]

Time to move on from DFS and other limited 3 and D players (Bullock) as starters/big minute rotation guys. The league is shifting to where you have to be more of a threat overall on offense instead of just standing around and waiting to shoot. The two teams in the Finals showed that almost everyone on the floor needs to be able to not only shoot but also be able to attack off the pass. That doesn't necessarily mean being able to create your shot in an ISO situation but if the ball swings, you need to be able to have some skills to do something with the ball.

GSW has been showing that too. Off ball movement creates opportunity.

[Scott41theMavs]

Time to move on from DFS and other limited 3 and D players (Bullock) as starters/big minute rotation guys. The league is shifting to where you have to be more of a threat overall on offense instead of just standing around and waiting to shoot. The two teams in the Finals showed that almost everyone on the floor needs to be able to not only shoot but also be able to attack off the pass. That doesn't necessarily mean being able to create your shot in an ISO situation but if the ball swings, you need to be able to have some skills to do something with the ball.

I was about to say something snarky, but I'll keep it polite. Several things:

1) Who ever thought the 3 and D would go the way of the Patrick Ewing's of the world?

2) So you have to have a) a shot, b) the ability to create offense on your own, and c) guard at least three positions if not 5. I think it's pretty clear that, 10 years ago, maybe even 5 years ago, there were not more than 30 players playing 25+ minutes a game who could check all three of those boxes. So which is it? Has the number of players who are entering the league over the past ten years who can check all three boxes skyrocketed, or is it just that a few teams have been hoarding all the guys who do check all three boxes?

3) Let me double down on that prior point - 5-10 years ago, the guys in the league who could do all three of those things playing 25+ minutes a game were known as "all-stars." Even if there's a larger number of guys who can do that (an idea which I'm open to), with the new CBA, you can perhaps afford two max guys, three starters who make about $15 mil average, and three bench guys making $8-12 mil each, with the """depth""" consisting entirely of vet mins. How many guys who can check the boxes are willing to take a huge paycut? If there are more guys like that in the league, I suppose that they will have to. If the number is the same as it's ever been, then I think it's going to be very hard for anyone to build a true contender, and probably asymptotically impossible for the Mavs given Cuban being in charge.

4) Maybe I have read too much into Luka's "it's not fun anymore" quote from late March (IIRC). I read that not so much in terms of being sad about not winning so much as about "I don't get to cook near as much anymore." Do you believe that Luka is really going to be all that happy with four other guys on the floor who can create their own shot and don't need him? How many guys who fit that profile of being able to create on their own are going to be content to watch Luka (and perhaps Kyrie) cook?

My point with 2), 3), and 4) is that a 3 and D guy playing big minutes still has high value on this roster, in my opinion. If Luka is willing to completely, absolutely transform the way he plays basketball in the NBA (hint: 1) as in, into how he has always played, and won internationally, and 2) as you could knock me down with a feather if he ever did so in the NBA before age 30), then we should only target those shooter/creator/defender guys you want.

[SwisherPrice]

^Yeah I agree that it all comes back to the style of play that the Mavs and Luka want. If they are still obsessed with copying the Moreyball/Harden Rockets then we will continue to see high-usage Luka and a bunch of one-dimensional shooters who live and die by the three. And that's never going to be sustainable to win 4 playoff series for a championship. Those role players are eventually going to go cold at the worst time. Players like DFS and Bullock are still useful in a rotation but not worthy of logging some of the highest minutes per game on the team like the past two seasons. 

If they ever decide to evolve past that, I think the Mavs can find some affordable players to fill these roles if they have capable scouts and a front office who know what to look for (but we know that's asking a lot).

These don't have to be players who average a ton of points or need the ball a lot of themselves - just look at the guys Miami has like Strus, Vincent, Robinson, Martin. All of those players were important for their playoff run and worked well with Butler and Bam. KCP and Bruce Brown played big roles for Denver but their skills are not just limited to standing around and shooting threes. 

Mavs Moneyball had a good piece this week on this topic: https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2023/6/12/...cks-evolve

This is why I called the Mavericks’ roster building belief pervasive — it feels like a philosophical Stockholm Syndrome. A narrative has been built about the specificity of a roster around Luka, and it usually involves a stretch big, a roll big, a couple of 3-and-D wings and another shot creator. It’s a standardized set of allocated roles. A half-decade ago, everyone was copying “Morey-Ball”, the analytics-friendly construction of a well-spaced roster built around the pick-and-roll, coined after then-Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Now it seems like the NBA is moving toward prizing the intersection of size, skill, athleticism and ball handling.

The truth is, Luka does need to up his game as an off-ball player. The hypothesis is that, if you surround him with many other players who can handle, pass and process the game, it will push him into it. At the very least, make use of his off-ball gravity (that exists even if he barely moves because he’s Luka-Freaking-Doncic). In 2022, this happened much more — the team spoke of something they called “the blender,” where shading toward Luka meant other players had room to drive and kick, creating the sorts of threes-or-layups shot quality we associate with the Warriors and Nuggets. It’s hard to replicate the best shooter ever and the best passing big-man ever as far as gravity, but you can still work toward that model instead of away from it. Luka with a decoy post-up, improving as a shooter off the catch, being the hub for dribble hand-offs. Have guys around him who make those actions beneficial, and maybe Luka does them.

[The Jom]

I get the Ben Simmons aversion. But I could easily see him growing up and manning up. And I don’t view him as expensive if you’re dumping 22.7 million of 2023 salary in the deal to get him. His 37.9 minus the 22.7 = 15.2, with another 10 of that otherwise owed to Bullock if you don’t do the deal.

So the Simmons overpay would really only come in the last year of his contract, when it’s only offset by 11 million of Bertans/McGee savings. And at that point, it’s an expiring trade chip.

[Jakeospikez]

Nah man, Ben Simmons has had love of the game issues since college. He got his max contract and doesn't give a shit anymore. His heart isn't in the game and he won't work on improving it. Avoid at all costs.

[dirkfansince1998]

[MFFL]

Ugh

I had no idea that DFS and Bullock were THIS bad last year

https://twitter.com/the_bball_index/stat...14752?s=46&t=2Vx-6ngtP-fUxROA9UvgJA

[DanSchwartzgan]

Ugh

I had no idea that DFS and Bullock were THIS bad last year

https://twitter.com/the_bball_index/stat...14752?s=46&t=2Vx-6ngtP-fUxROA9UvgJA

Note THJ in the upper left (the good quadrant).

Luka and Kyrie will get you good looks.  (DFS and Reggie got some of the best looks in the league).  Just need to find people who can knock them down at a high rate.  Someone like DiVincenzo would be a huge upgrade over Reggie for a similar sized guy.

[ThisIStheYear]

DFS may be a declining player due to age. Getting off his contract was a sneaky benefit of the Kyrie trade.

[Chicagojk]

For the first time in his career last year, he did not improve over the previous season. Then he really struggled in Brooklyn. I still think he still have plenty of good years left. I would have loved to keep him and include Bullock in the Nets trade, but it wasn't in the cards. I actually think he would fit in well here with our current roster. I don't expect it to happen though. I do expect DFS to be moved this summer. Probably to some contender in the west.

[ItsGoTime]

I think there might be something to the people pointing to all the minutes Bullock and DFS got in the WCF run, but in my mind, there’s no reason to gamble that being the case for the age and level of player DFS is when right.

[cow]

So much God King slander. I hope you all feel tremendous shame.

[khaled1987]

Ugh

I had no idea that DFS and Bullock were THIS bad last year

https://twitter.com/the_bball_index/stat...14752?s=46&t=2Vx-6ngtP-fUxROA9UvgJA

THJ numbers looks good

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

I mean that chart also highlights that THJ takes a lot of bad shots.

[mvossman]

I mean that chart also highlights that THJ takes a lot of bad shots.

He does, and some of it is self imposed, but a lot of it is due to volume.  In his last three healthy seasons he has taken well over 7 3s a game at over a 39%.  That has a lot of value.  When you consider he has raised his defense to at least average NBA level, you realize he is actually a very useful rotational player.  I think he gets underrated a fair amount around here.

[michaeltex]

Ugh

I had no idea that DFS and Bullock were THIS bad last year

https://twitter.com/the_bball_index/stat...14752?s=46&t=2Vx-6ngtP-fUxROA9UvgJA

My impression (I have no data) is that Reggie can't hit anything reliably until sometime after Christmas. Seems like he starts every year stone cold on 3s then gets more respectable toward mid-season. I'm OK with sharing that frustration with another team.

[dirkfansince1998]

My impression (I have no data) is that Reggie can't hit anything reliably until sometime after Christmas. Seems like he starts every year stone cold on 3s then gets more respectable toward mid-season. I'm OK with sharing that frustration with another team.

Difference compared to THJ is that he needs more time and space to get his shot off. Cannot really do anything against a hard closeout. Isn´t going to fake and drive or side step the closeout. Same for DFS or Maxi. If they cannot get a shot off the offense resets and Luka/Kyrie have to start from scratch against a late clock.

[ThisIStheYear]

Waive Bullock. He was god awful last year.