Wemby injury watch

[Jym]

Give me Wembanyama all day, every day and I'm taking my chances on him staying healthy

[MFFL]

This height / injury discussion has been brought up by Craig Miller of The Ticket on multiple occasions. The magic # is 7’3” and up.  Weight isn’t really a factor.  You can find much stuff on the web, such as…As of 2019, only 26 players in NBA history.  Only 12 played over 2 NBA seasons (total games).  HOF: Ming, Sampson, Sabonis.  Porzingis would probably be the next best (highest PPG on the list).  Then you’ve got guys like Smits and Ilgauskas….pretty good players. The 3 HOF guys only have 5-6 seasons of games played due to injuries. Sabonis was 31 when he was finally allowed to come over but went downhill pretty fast.  Eaton is the games leader at 875. He was never hurt. It’s a really, really small sample, but it’s worth considering.

Sports announcers have not done a lot of research on this. They just go by what someone else has said. Most of 7'3" players didn't play because they sucked, not because they were injured.

There are 12 players that were complete spares:
Chuck Nevitt 7'5"
Pavel Podkolzin 7'5"
Sim Bhullar 7'5"
Priest Lauderdale 7'4"
Peter John Ramos 7'3"
Hasheem Thabeet 7'3"
Swede Halbrook 7'3"
Keith Closs 7'3"
Ha Seung-Jin 7'3"
Aleksandar Radojevic 7'3"
Walter Tavares 7'3"
Tibor Pleiß 7'3"

Then you have a probable spare:
Tacko Fall 7'5"

Then you have your career backup players:
Boban Marjanovic 7'4"
Randy Breuer 7'3"

Lets eliminate the player with a pituitary gland disorder:
Gheorge Muresan 7'7"

So already 16 of your 26 players are eliminated. I can go through the rest if you like. Spoiler alert, injuries only derailed the careers of 2 of them (Sampson & Ming)

[ThisIStheYear]

We probably won’t have to worry about, but I’ll be happy if this becomes a concern! He’s incredible.

[ItsGoTime]

Added this to the OP, but here the theory is all in 1 large thought.

So here is my Theory all in 1 place (what else is there to read?). As I discuss it and get input, I do change things up a bit, but for the most part this is it:

I think Wemby will be injury prone for 3 interconnected reasons: height, body shape and style of play in this new injury prone era of NBA basketball. To me, I think AD's last 5 years is about what he'll be until injuries just sap all the ability out of him. A guy that is constantly injured during the season (avg 50 gp per season for the last 5 years) and there is no telling if he'll be available or ready to go come playoff time. When he plays, he helps vault your otherwise well built team to contender status, but that is so hit or miss, you most of the time don't want him on your team. I think KP and Bol Bol are the closest player comparisons in terms of the full package (KD is closer to what Wemby is in play, but he doesn't have close enough to the height and even he came out 7 inches shorter, but only 5 lbs lighter than Wemby...let that sink in please!). I have to say, I think Kareem is too far away from this new style of NBA basketball that I can't accept him as a great comparison. I don't think I need to spend a ton of time on the first two things, as those are what have been discussed the most in this topic, but, here is the breakdown of each aspect and how it connects with the rest.

Height:
If you haven't seen or heard of the studies about how height is connected with injury, you probably aren't reading this long post. There's enough smoke out there to me, to believe there's fire with this aspect of it in my mind, so I subscribe to it (I also have to say, I've seen it myself growing up and watching the game for 40i years). This is also the key part to both the other two, because of how unique Wemby is as a player of his height. It's newish territory being so tall. This is why KP, who can't be the sole reason for a theory, is the best case study for any of this. Bol Bol is another pretty good comparison, but then it's starting to get too far away from 7'5". It's 2 inches difference from KP to Wemby, 3 inches from Bol Bol to him. To put it in simpler terms and keeping in mind this is solely in a thought about height in a vacuum, three inches in general is the difference between a great height for a PG to a good height for a SF (6'4" to 6'7"). So that is to basically say, 2-3" still needs to be put in it's place with all of this. Which is also to say, the taller you are, the harder it is to maintain your body.

Body shape:
Andre the Giant would have made a terrible basketball player. Wemby will make an amazing one, when he plays. In general, this part is a look at the height to weight ratio and how it affects a player's health. I haven't made a spreadsheet to calculate the height to weight ratio, I've used height, weight and sight for my "analysis". Pokusevski and Holmgren are 2 guys that have the most comparable body shapes to Wemby. New study on height/weight bigs. I've done this once already, but never set parameters up before doing it. At 6'10" the player can be no more than 205 lbs., then no more than 5 lbs for each inch above (which is still being very generous with Wemby's height/weight ratio). Here is your list with the # of NBA games played to date and years past draft:

Chet Holmgren - 7' - 195 - 0 - 1
Yannick Nzosa - 6'10" - 195 - 0* - 1
Evan Mobley - 7' - 215 - 148 - 2
Isaiah Jackson - 6'10" - 206 (close enough) - 99 - 2
Aleksej Pokusevski - 7' - 201 - 140 - 3
Jaden McDaniels** - 6'10" - 184 - 212 - 3
Nicolas Claxton - 6'11.75" - 217 (close enough) - 170 - 4
Bol Bol - 7'2" - 208 - 123 - 4
Michael Porter Jr*** - 6'10.75" - 211 (close enough) - 187 - 5
Jonathan Isaac - 6'11" - 205 - 147 - 6
Thon Maker - 7'0.75" - 216 - 263 - 7****
Kristaps Porzingis - 7'3" - 230 - 402 - 8

* - Never on the team's roster
** - More a SF for a big man study
*** - preexisting injury issue well documented
**** - only in the league for 5 years

Biggest part of the reason this is a 6'10" cutoff is cause most bigs aren't smaller unless they are way outside the parameters. This is a "big" study, mostly because of the role bigs play on defense being that of a paint protector so they will come into contact with other players in compromising (to the body) positions and elevations. The toll taken on a body of Wemby's shape is much different (read as worse most of the time) than the toll on bigger players (again, most of the time). One thing to mention, either guys with this type build are for whatever reason, not drafted, or they don't make it to the draft. There are also a LOT of 6'10" - 7' guys that have bigger body shapes that are drafted in the space I was studying. Is that supply? Is it where NBA teams are trending towards? Either way, this list, as small as it is doesn't have much to redeem for players with similar body types to Wemby. It's right on par with AD's last 5 years prediction, 50 gps and hit or miss on playoff availability.

Style of play in the new, injury prone, era of NBA basketball:
If you asked me who is gonna win a regular season matchup between any two teams in the league, my first question is, who is on the injury report? This league has either become soft, or the way the players play is not conducive to staying healthy or both. One way or another, it's just the way I see it. If you disagree, we will absolutely agree to disagree on that without any discussion needed.

Wemby's style of play puts him at maximum risk of injury in the NBA. Great defender, rim protector and rebounder on defense. He would play a "big" role to protect the paint and grab rebounds. That is enough contact for guys to get injured fairly often. I suspect Gobert is a decent place to also consider how Wemby will play on defense, soft, but quicker on the perimeter. Gobert is not oft injured, probably because he does not play with much force, but he does get injured, and all of this is building to the bigger whole.

Great dribble penetrator, 3 shooter, passer and rebounder on offense. Let's get 3 shooting out of the way, not many injuries when someone shoots a 3. Passer? Anytime a player has the ball, there is focus on that player and thus more possibility of contact, the more contact, the closer to injury. Offensive rebounder? Fighting for a rebound and then being that close together while jumping in the air with arms and legs flailing and players trying to get every advantage is a recipe for disaster, however, I continue down the path of the Gobert model where he's gonna play with as little force as possible while still doing well with rebounds. He could be worse than Gobert on this cause he will also be on the perimeter more often than him when the ball goes up, assumingly. In that sense, let's say he's closer to Dirk on ORebs than Gobert.

Dribble penetration is the worst of all of the offensive play style traits (for a player with the other two issues). This is where even small guys get hurt fairly often. This is one of the biggest reasons (please do not read that as ONLY) I keep talking about style of play being an important part of the whole of the theory. I just don't see a way around a 7'5" 220 guy going up against Embiid...or worse, Markus Morris (take your pick of guys) and the outcome not being an injury of some sort to Wemby. Then there's the thought of the adjustment to the speed, quickness and size of the defenders all around him. Hip checks going to the rim are a foul, does the player care about that foul when he hip checks the biggest threat on the court into injury? The more he goes up in the air and lands in traffic, the highest the risk of injury in my mind. Dereck Rose wants his game back.

All of his style of play attributes are what make him who he can be on the court and that should look great. Most of them are what adds up to getting him closer and closer to his next injury. Here's the point where I also say, these 2 way guys are burning the candle at both ends. It's one thing if you are like Trae Young and are an amazing offensive player but take your rest on the defensive end. If you're Maxi Kleber who plays hard on the defensive end but can sit on the 3 line during most of the offensive sets. It's another thing if you're doing it on both ends like AD. It takes a toll, wears you out and then you're doing things you think you should be able to do, but your body is spent so you get injured (see Luka).

Wemby's style of play adds to the interdependent whole of being injury prone. Which is to say, this theory isn't necessarily repeatable as a whole.

[ballsrchr]

Added this to the OP, but here the theory is all in 1 large thought.

So here is my Theory all in 1 place (what else is there to read?). As I discuss it and get input, I do change things up a bit, but for the most part this is it:...

I didn't want to take up too much room by quoting your entire post, but...great post!  I enjoy reading such informative, factual, and thoughtful posts.  Opinionated?...sure.  We all have opinions.  Nothing wrong with that.  This also helps show the cogitation behind the post(s).  

I generally agree with your post...based entirely on experience, what I have seen...and what I see.  I don't have time to do the deep dives some of you guys do...but I damn sure appreciate it.  Keep up the good work!

[ItsGoTime]

I didn't want to take up too much room by quoting your entire post, but...great post!  I enjoy reading such informative, factual, and thoughtful posts.  Opinionated?...sure.  We all have opinions.  Nothing wrong with that.  This also helps show the cogitation behind the post(s).  

I generally agree with your post...based entirely on experience, what I have seen...and what I see.  I don't have time to do the deep dives some of you guys do...but I damn sure appreciate it.  Keep up the good work!

Thank you. I took the time cause I was doing nothing this afternoon, so, might as well.

[ThisIStheYear]

The fluidity and suppleness of Wemby’s movement is unlike any of the people you’re comparing him with. There’s never been anyone like him. He’s probably the greatest prospect in history and you have to give him a chance if you get the top pick. There’s just too much upside, on a level we’ve never seen, to give him up.

[ItsGoTime]

I did forget to add this. 

The one thing that does give me pause is that he’s being trained by Holger.

[ballsrchr]

I did forget to add this. 

The one thing that does give me pause is that he’s being trained by Holger.

Yes!  I think that is a plus, and worth a second look.

[dirkfansince1998]

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1658552209699635202?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1658552209699635202%7Ctwgr%5Eb7fa934a1312c067397a729645c4c9e6e0567bff%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.realgm.com%2Fboards%2Fviewtopic.php%3Ft%3D2230348start%3D860

"This is the most highly-anticipated player to ever enter the NBA. ... Maybe the greatest prospect in the history of team sports."

[ItsGoTime]

Gonna be great when he plays.

[ItsGoTime]

I bet some of you today are hoping my thoughts ring true!

[dirkfansince1998]

How it all started...

[DallasMaverick]

Is he hurt yet?

[Dahlsim]

The fluidity and suppleness of Wemby’s movement is unlike any of the people you’re comparing him with. There’s never been anyone like him. He’s probably the greatest prospect in history and you have to give him a chance if you get the top pick. There’s just too much upside, on a level we’ve never seen, to give him up.

Good point.   I would say that young Wilt Chamberlain might actually be the best comparision to Victor Wembanyama. 

Most people wouldn't probably make the connection because basketball itself  and the center position changed so much and most video of Wilt is of his later heavier years and after his knee injury too. 
Also Wilt was a track star and world class decathlete but when he came into the NBA with no 3 point shot and slower paced 1/2 court game, centers were made to stay in the paint and do their work only in close. 

If you look at young Wilt who also was fluid and skilled enough to play with the Harlem Globetrotters, you can see how Wemby might be Wilt for the modern generation, a very rare thing. 

  

[KillerLeft]

My comp for wemenyama (being woefully ignorant of Chamberlain’s game other than stats) is Durant. I normally go the other way with these predictions, but in his case I actually think his way in the world is at forward, not center. I have spent limited time studying him compared to some of you, however.

[Dahlsim]

My comp for wemenyama (being woefully ignorant of Chamberlain’s game other than stats) is Durant. I normally go the other way with these predictions, but in his case I actually think his way in the world is at forward, not center. I have spent limited time studying him compared to some of you, however.

Yeah in this positionless era he may play more forward on offense but on defense?   If you define position based on who does the player guard, seems like they may want to keep this massive wingspan near the rim on defense more often than not, ergo center. 

My comparison with Wilt though is on his super freakish height and length combined with elite athleticism and  fluidity and suppleness. 
I had to project young Wilt matching the super freak size while still being elite in the other areas.  It requires projection because the role of the center the NBA game was so different when young Wilt entered the league.   
I can't see any other player in NBA history quote matching Victor Wembanyama on size/athleticism/fluidity and suppleness along with basketball skill. 

https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/victor-we...ming-boban 
Givony reported that the 18-year-old Wembanyama measured at 7-foot-4 barefoot (!) with an 8-foot wingspan.

Wilt was officially listed only 7:1 so still not Wemby but might have been a little taller since when he pictured next to Shaq Wilt was actually a little taller than the Diesel. 
The high school / rookie Wilt videos look the closest to Victor W.  Other guys like Boban and Taco Fall etc. can compare on size but don't enter the fluidity/suppleness conversation at all and the even the elite skill.  

Durant is an excellent comp, I agree but Durant is not super freakish in size by NBA size, he's just a regular freak.   

[ItsGoTime]

Is it just me or has anyone else never heard the word supple outside of describing boobs?

[Dahlsim]

Is it just me or has anyone else never heard the word supple outside of describing boobs?

 Nice. 

https://www.wordnik.com/words/supple 
Readily bent, folded, or manipulated; pliant: synonym: flexible.

To the Wemby comparisons perhaps former Mavs great hope Kristaps Porzingis at 7-foot-3 deserves to be considered in this context.  
Too bad Dallas won't get to match KP vs Wemby in the West.

[Chicagojk]

I see a lot of Satham Singh when I see his highlights.