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+--- Thread: Wemby injury watch (/showthread.php?tid=2663)
Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-05-2023
Just need an easy to find place to keep track of this.
ESPN is doing a special on him called “The Future”. I hope the guy is humble enough to cut through all that b.s. Otherwise he could become Lebron 2.0.
Edit: So here is my Theory all in 1 place (what else is there to read?). As I discuss it and get input, I do change things up a bit, but for the most part this is it:
I think Wemby will be injury prone for 3 interconnected reasons: height, body shape and style of play in this new injury prone era of NBA basketball. To me, I think AD's last 5 years is about what he'll be until injuries just sap all the ability out of him. A guy that is constantly injured during the season (avg 50 gp per season for the last 5 years) and there is no telling if he'll be available or ready to go come playoff time. When he plays, he helps vault your otherwise well built team to contender status, but that is so hit or miss, you most of the time don't want him on your team. I think KP and Bol Bol are the closest player comparisons in terms of the full package (KD is closer to what Wemby is in play, but he doesn't have close enough to the height and even he came out 7 inches shorter, but only 5 lbs lighter than Wemby...let that sink in please!). I have to say, I think Kareem is too far away from this new style of NBA basketball that I can't accept him as a great comparison. I don't think I need to spend a ton of time on the first two things, as those are what have been discussed the most in this topic, but, here is the breakdown of each aspect and how it connects with the rest.
Height:
If you haven't seen or heard of the studies about how height is connected with injury, you probably aren't reading this long post. There's enough smoke out there to me, to believe there's fire with this aspect of it in my mind, so I subscribe to it (I also have to say, I've seen it myself growing up and watching the game for 40i years). This is also the key part to both the other two, because of how unique Wemby is as a player of his height. It's newish territory being so tall. This is why KP, who can't be the sole reason for a theory, is the best case study for any of this. Bol Bol is another pretty good comparison, but then it's starting to get too far away from 7'5". It's 2 inches difference from KP to Wemby, 3 inches from Bol Bol to him. To put it in simpler terms and keeping in mind this is solely in a thought about height in a vacuum, three inches in general is the difference between a great height for a PG to a good height for a SF (6'4" to 6'7"). So that is to basically say, 2-3" still needs to be put in it's place with all of this. Which is also to say, the taller you are, the harder it is to maintain your body.
Body shape:
Andre the Giant would have made a terrible basketball player. Wemby will make an amazing one, when he plays. In general, this part is a look at the height to weight ratio and how it affects a player's health. I haven't made a spreadsheet to calculate the height to weight ratio, I've used height, weight and sight for my "analysis". Pokusevski and Holmgren are 2 guys that have the most comparable body shapes to Wemby. New study on height/weight bigs. I've done this once already, but never set parameters up before doing it. At 6'10" the player can be no more than 205 lbs., then no more than 5 lbs for each inch above (which is still being very generous with Wemby's height/weight ratio). Here is your list with the # of NBA games played to date and years past draft:
Chet Holmgren - 7' - 195 - 0 - 1
Yannick Nzosa - 6'10" - 195 - 0* - 1
Evan Mobley - 7' - 215 - 148 - 2
Isaiah Jackson - 6'10" - 206 (close enough) - 99 - 2
Aleksej Pokusevski - 7' - 201 - 140 - 3
Jaden McDaniels** - 6'10" - 184 - 212 - 3
Nicolas Claxton - 6'11.75" - 217 (close enough) - 170 - 4
Bol Bol - 7'2" - 208 - 123 - 4
Michael Porter Jr*** - 6'10.75" - 211 (close enough) - 187 - 5
Jonathan Isaac - 6'11" - 205 - 147 - 6
Thon Maker - 7'0.75" - 216 - 263 - 7****
Kristaps Porzingis - 7'3" - 230 - 402 - 8
* - Never on the team's roster
** - More a SF for a big man study
*** - preexisting injury issue well documented
**** - only in the league for 5 years
Biggest part of the reason this is a 6'10" cutoff is cause most bigs aren't smaller unless they are way outside the parameters. This is a "big" study, mostly because of the role bigs play on defense being that of a paint protector so they will come into contact with other players in compromising (to the body) positions and elevations. The toll taken on a body of Wemby's shape is much different (read as worse most of the time) than the toll on bigger players (again, most of the time). One thing to mention, either guys with this type build are for whatever reason, not drafted, or they don't make it to the draft. There are also a LOT of 6'10" - 7' guys that have bigger body shapes that are drafted in the space I was studying. Is that supply? Is it where NBA teams are trending towards? Either way, this list, as small as it is doesn't have much to redeem for players with similar body types to Wemby. It's right on par with AD's last 5 years prediction, 50 gps and hit or miss on playoff availability.
Style of play in the new, injury prone, era of NBA basketball:
If you asked me who is gonna win a regular season matchup between any two teams in the league, my first question is, who is on the injury report? This league has either become soft, or the way the players play is not conducive to staying healthy or both. One way or another, it's just the way I see it. If you disagree, we will absolutely agree to disagree on that without any discussion needed.
Wemby's style of play puts him at maximum risk of injury in the NBA. Great defender, rim protector and rebounder on defense. He would play a "big" role to protect the paint and grab rebounds. That is enough contact for guys to get injured fairly often. I suspect Gobert is a decent place to also consider how Wemby will play on defense, soft, but quicker on the perimeter. Gobert is not oft injured, probably because he does not play with much force, but he does get injured, and all of this is building to the bigger whole.
Great dribble penetrator, 3 shooter, passer and rebounder on offense. Let's get 3 shooting out of the way, not many injuries when someone shoots a 3. Passer? Anytime a player has the ball, there is focus on that player and thus more possibility of contact, the more contact, the closer to injury. Offensive rebounder? Fighting for a rebound and then being that close together while jumping in the air with arms and legs flailing and players trying to get every advantage is a recipe for disaster, however, I continue down the path of the Gobert model where he's gonna play with as little force as possible while still doing well with rebounds. He could be worse than Gobert on this cause he will also be on the perimeter more often than him when the ball goes up, assumingly. In that sense, let's say he's closer to Dirk on ORebs than Gobert.
Dribble penetration is the worst of all of the offensive play style traits (for a player with the other two issues). This is where even small guys get hurt fairly often. This is one of the biggest reasons (please do not read that as ONLY) I keep talking about style of play being an important part of the whole of the theory. I just don't see a way around a 7'5" 220 guy going up against Embiid...or worse, Markus Morris (take your pick of guys) and the outcome not being an injury of some sort to Wemby. Then there's the thought of the adjustment to the speed, quickness and size of the defenders all around him. Hip checks going to the rim are a foul, does the player care about that foul when he hip checks the biggest threat on the court into injury? The more he goes up in the air and lands in traffic, the highest the risk of injury in my mind. Dereck Rose wants his game back.
All of his style of play attributes are what make him who he can be on the court and that should look great. Most of them are what adds up to getting him closer and closer to his next injury. Here's the point where I also say, these 2 way guys are burning the candle at both ends. It's one thing if you are like Trae Young and are an amazing offensive player but take your rest on the defensive end. If you're Maxi Kleber who plays hard on the defensive end but can sit on the 3 line during most of the offensive sets. It's another thing if you're doing it on both ends like AD. It takes a toll, wears you out and then you're doing things you think you should be able to do, but your body is spent so you get injured (see Luka).
Wemby's style of play adds to the interdependent whole of being injury prone. Which is to say, this theory isn't necessarily repeatable as a whole.
RE: Wemby injury watch - MFFL - 05-05-2023
Why do you assume he will be injury prone?
RE: Wemby injury watch - MrGoat - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 03:02 PM)MFFL Wrote: Why do you assume he will be injury prone?
Guys his height usually are
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 03:02 PM)MFFL Wrote: Why do you assume he will be injury prone?It’s not a full assumption. It’s %es. I think there is about an 80% chance he’ll be injury prone. That to me is close enough to cash in on his value, whatever that may be. The Utah trade floated by SH. Ten FRPs from Okc. Whatever, in the long run, it’ll be better, esp for our bereft of talent roster.
RE: Wemby injury watch - MFFL - 05-05-2023
Kareem was 7'2" shorter and he's #2 in game played in NBA history. The player who is #1 in games played in Parrish who was 7'1"
RE: Wemby injury watch - MFFL - 05-05-2023
Slavko Vranes was 7'6" and played 20 seasons in Europe
Shawn Bradley was 7'6" and played 14 seasons in the NBA
Mark Eaton was 7'4" and had an 11 year career in the NBA, averaged 79 games per year
Rik Smits was 7'4" and had an 12 year NBA career, averaged 72 games per year
Yes, Ming and Sampson had short careers due to injuries but there isn't a height that magically produces injuries
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 05:41 PM)MFFL Wrote: Kareem was 7'2" shorter and he's #2 in game played in NBA history. The player who is #1 in games played in Parrish who was 7'1"So, because 2 players 40 years ago were fine, Wemby will be fine despite modern big track record.
RE: Wemby injury watch - RasheedsBigWhiteSpot - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 05:48 PM)MFFL Wrote: Slavko Vranes was 7'6" and played 20 seasons in Europe
Shawn Bradley was 7'6" and played 14 seasons in the NBA
Mark Eaton was 7'4" and had an 11 year career in the NBA, averaged 79 games per year
Rik Smits was 7'4" and had an 12 year NBA career, averaged 72 games per year
Yes, Ming and Sampson had short careers due to injuries but there isn't a height that magically produces injuries
But, but, but that doesn't fit within the narrative that lands IGT's heartthrob Daniel Gafford!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!!!
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 05:48 PM)MFFL Wrote: Slavko Vranes was 7'6" and played 20 seasons in EuropeSo, you don’t agree, you think he’s gonna be Kareem+. That’s the beauty of this thread, we can scoreboard eachother!
Shawn Bradley was 7'6" and played 14 seasons in the NBA
Mark Eaton was 7'4" and had an 11 year career in the NBA, averaged 79 games per year
Rik Smits was 7'4" and had an 12 year NBA career, averaged 72 games per year
Yes, Ming and Sampson had short careers due to injuries but there isn't a height that magically produces injuries
(05-05-2023, 05:55 PM)RasheedsBigWhiteSpot Wrote: But, but, but that doesn't fit within the narrative that lands IGT's heartthrob Daniel Gafford!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!!!!!!!!If we land the #1 pick, Gafford is not top of my list. He’s just, what I think, is the most gettable C of acceptable C’s on the list.
RE: Wemby injury watch - MFFL - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 05:59 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: So, you don’t agree, you think he’s gonna be Kareem+. That’s the beauty of this thread, we can scoreboard eachother!
I don't think he's going to be another Kareem but I don't assume he'll be injury prone just because of his height
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 06:20 PM)MFFL Wrote: I don't think he's going to be another Kareem but I don't assume he'll be injury prone just because of his heightMethinks thou protesteth too much then.
Also, I don’t believe what I believe just because of his height. It’s his height, build and style of play.
RE: Wemby injury watch - Branduil - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 06:42 PM)ItsGoTime Wrote: Methinks thou protesteth too much then.
You literally just made a thread about a guy theoretically getting injured
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-05-2023
(05-05-2023, 08:52 PM)Branduil Wrote: You literally just made a thread about a guy theoretically getting injuredYou didn’t read the thread at all did you. Neither did you read his post if you think this is an appropriate response. I made the thread for those on either side to have a tit for tat discussion so it doesn’t have to flood the other threads. He said he’s not going to be Kareem+ that I’ve read here but not going to be KP either. That puts him somewhere in the middle which has to assume there is a chance for him being KP.
I put my % chance at 80%, where are YOU at?
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-05-2023
Chet Holmgren is 7’ 195 lbs. he is a frail little thing on the court. Wemby is 5” taller and only 25 lbs heavier. The average healthy weight per lb is 6 lbs per inch past 5’. That means Wemby is less than the healthy weight above Chet.
KP was 7’3” 230 going into the draft. He was slight of build too. Looks like Wemby has more ball handling skills than KP too which my hypothesis includes his driving ability as a negative determining factor in my theory. The more he drives, the closer he comes to getting a knee blown out or a foot broke.
Pokusevski was listed at the draft as heavier than he is listed on BBRef. 7’ and 201 lbs (now listed as 190 lbs). He has had a roller coaster of an availability ride his 3 seasons in the league.
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-06-2023
Nic Claxton, 6’11.75” and 217 lbs (now listed as 6’11” 215) has had his first good season in 4 and his size and height is better than Wemby’s.
Bol Bol, 7’2” 208 lbs coming out (220 lbs now) look at Bol right now, now add 3 inches. Frail frame.
Jonathan Isaac, 6’11” and 205 lbs going into the draft (currently listed as 230 lbs lots of bon bons while sitting out 2 full seasons). Thin framed big, had 1 season out of 6 with an acceptable amount of games played. Wemby is also supposed to be a defensive stud. That also puts him in danger.
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-06-2023
That’s a rash of young players who are playing in the new era of the NBA. I’d say that rash covers about 80% of the body.
RE: Wemby injury watch - dirkfansince1998 - 05-06-2023
What about players that started just as skinny but managed to add weight and had successful NBA careers. All of a sudden the list is a lot longer. Including some of the best bigs in the league. Giannis entered the league with a 6´10/190 frame. Evan Mobley is listed at 7´0/215.
It´s not possible to predict their development once they enter the league but most bigs tend to be lanky when they enter the league.
RE: Wemby injury watch - dirkfansince1998 - 05-06-2023
![[Image: cd0ymzcznguwzdbhnduynddiytjhm2yyzthlmtjj...=1362,2048]](https://nba.nbcsports.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2014/04/cd0ymzcznguwzdbhnduynddiytjhm2yyzthlmtjjotqwyyznptzkyzc2njhlyti2mta4odzhyzq2nzk0ntq1ytgyyja3.jpeg?resize=1362,2048)
Clint Capela. One year older than current Wenbanyama...What am I trying to say? It´s not possible to make reliable health/durability predictions based on pre draft weight/frame/length.
RE: Wemby injury watch - ItsGoTime - 05-06-2023
(05-06-2023, 01:47 AM)dirkfansince1998 Wrote: What about players that started just as skinny but managed to add weight and had successful NBA careers. All of a sudden the list is a lot longer. Including some of the best bigs in the league. Giannis entered the league with a 6´10/190 frame. Evan Mobley is listed at 7´0/215.Not really, I just went down the draft list looking for the tall and skinny guys back to Isaac’s draft. There were guys like Mo Bamba who didn’t make the cut because he was a good amount bigger, but it was hard to figure if his games played vs injury history was hard to decipher as far as how many dnp-cd he’s had in those seasons. There were only a couple of those guys, other than that, I listed the longest and lankiest (Mobley would be the only exception). So, 1 guy out of the last 6 years of drafts. The rest of the guys are Goga Bitadze types with sturdier frames coming out.
It´s not possible to predict their development once they enter the league but most bigs tend to be lanky when they enter the league.
I say this cause the new NBA is very rough on the body (ask AD), and Wemby’s touted style of play being a high end two way player with guardlike ability on offense is not conducive to staying healthy. KP is the youngest and closest comparison to what Wemby is supposed to be. The play style is just as important to the prediction as height/height and weight. You guys keep honing in on 1 or 2 of the aspects of the hypothesis.
I also added a % to the prediction. I realize there is a possibility that the prediction is wrong, but the odds in my mind are greater that I’m right. If you feel differently, throw out your %! I mean, I really hope our talent evaluators are taking injury possibility into account when they are drafting.
The success of a talent eval is all dependent upon predictions and projections of the like. Think the talent evaluators are getting high 5’s who pushed the team to draft Isaac? I don’t. They may not be getting fired cause his talent is undeniable but I don’t think that is a cheered pick in the FO anymore.
I mean, if 10 firsts from OKC or the SH Utah trade or something different but comparable were on the table, you’re that sure putting all your future eggs in that 1 basket as opposed to spreading them out on a talent depleted roster with 2 top 10 players already (and honestly, I wouldn’t hesitate to get a decent package for Kyrie if he wanted to go elsewhere after a package like that). I think a team would be fools to take Wemby.
What’s your %?
RE: Wemby injury watch - dirkfansince1998 - 05-06-2023
I don´t have an percentage. Already stated my opinion. Could be anything from 1-99%. Just not possible to make a call without any deeper knowledge. Frame/size/weight alone aren´t enough. Just don´t see a reason why I should have a super strong opinion on something that is impossible to predict with the little knowledge that I have.
With the same logic that you are using I could make the case that teams shouldn´t pick Henderson. Would bring out the Derrick Rose comparisation and argue that super athletic guards are just as injury-prone as lanky bigs.
But that wouldn´t be fair because just like in Wenbanyama´s case we have seen plenty of players like Henderson or Rose that had long and successful careers.
I also don´t think the Wenbanyama comparisations you are using are fair because the risk/reward ratio isn´t even close. That´s the kind of logic that people used to downplay Luka prior to the draft. We aren´t talking about a guy that put up 5pts/3ast (Hezonja) or 10pts/4reb (Porzingis). We are talking about a player that leads the french league in points, rebounds and blocks (21pts/10reb/3blk). A player that dominated the top picks from last years draft class when he was nearly two years younger.