Wemby injury watch

[ItsGoTime]

I don´t have an percentage. Already stated my opinion. Could be anything from 1-99%. Just not possible to make a call without any deeper knowledge. Frame/size/weight alone aren´t enough. Just don´t see a reason why I should have a super strong opinion on something that is impossible to predict with the little knowledge that I have.
With the same logic that you are using I could make the case that teams shouldn´t pick Henderson. Would bring out the Derrick Rose comparisation and argue that super athletic guards are just as injury-prone as lanky bigs.
But that wouldn´t be fair because just like in Wenbanyama´s case we have seen plenty of players like Henderson or Rose that had long and successful careers.

I also don´t think the Wenbanyama comparisations you are using are fair because the risk/reward ratio isn´t even close. That´s the kind of logic that people used to downplay Luka prior to the draft. We aren´t talking about a guy that put up 5pts/3ast (Hezonja) or 10pts/4reb (Porzingis). We are talking about a player that leads the french league in points, rebounds and blocks (21pts/10reb/3blk). A player that dominated the top picks from last years draft class when he was nearly two years younger.

At the end of the day, the scenario is we get the #1 pick, do you draft Wemby with it or trade it to get the deal that will put behind us all the asset issues and problems we put ourselves in. To me, it’s the Hershel Walker deal because we already have THE piece. If we were to draft Wemby and he gets season ending injured in game 12, it would be devastating to the season. If we got the Herschel Walker trade and filled the team with good to great players at every position, one of them gets season ending injured and we’re just fine.

If I am just about any other team (I think Denver is the exception too, they should take the package and run), I’m thinking about this differently. We are in a pretty unique situation because of how horrible a position we put ourselves in (Donnie and Mark put us in that is).

That being said, “The Future”, I am still predicting to be injury prone no matter what team he goes to ck. You choose not to predict based on your thought process, but it can be predicted one way or another. That is a for sure yes or no question that will be answered in the future.

That’s the definitive “yes or no” prediction. I also gave the weather report option in %.

[dirkfansince1998]

At the end of the day, the scenario is we get the #1 pick, do you draft Wemby with it or trade it to get the deal that will put behind us all the asset issues and problems we put ourselves in. To me, it’s the Hershel Walker deal because we already have THE piece. If we were to draft Wemby and he gets season ending injured in game 12, it would be devastating to the season. If we got the Herschel Walker trade and filled the team with good to great players at every position, one of them gets season ending injured and we’re just fine.

If I am just about any other team (I think Denver is the exception too, they should take the package and run), I’m thinking about this differently. We are in a pretty unique situation because of how horrible a position we put ourselves in (Donnie and Mark put us in that is).

That being said, “The Future”, I am still predicting to be injury prone no matter what team he goes to ck. You choose not to predict based on your thought process, but it can be predicted one way or another. That is a for sure yes or no question that will be answered in the future.

That’s the definitive “yes or no” prediction. I also gave the weather report option in %.

Please elaborate. What is the exact formula that lead to your percentage? Completly understand that you have concerns but this isn´t an exact science. Would need to know a lot more to make a call like this.

[ItsGoTime]

Please elaborate. What is the exact formula that lead to your percentage? Completly understand that you have concerns but this isn´t an exact science. Would need to know a lot more to make a call like this.

Of course there isn’t an exact formula to it. I’ve said plenty in this thread and others as to how I come to the conclusion I did. There is always a chance I am wrong, so that is the 20% part. However, if there is an 80% chance for rain, probably should take an umbrella.

[DallasMaverick]

Superstars with spotty injury histories are SO tough to evaluate. Really high risk / reward.

Are the Clippers happy they have Kawhi and PG? Lakers with AD? Blazers with Greg Oden?

Chandler Parsons? John Wall? Derrick Rose?

If you get a hit, and your guy avoids injury, all your fans are happy. Coaches and front-office people keep their jobs. Maybe even get raises for their incredibly good foresight, wisdom, and talent evaluation.

If the guy is hurt, then you're paying a big chunk of your cap space for zero production. It's really tough to compete at a high level when your healthy roster is composed of a few mid-priced specialists, maybe a max-salary guy who doesn't play at a max level, and some near-minimums. Fans arrive with torches and pitchforks. Coaches and GM's get fired for their incompetence.

I can certainly understand how a team that lands the #1 pick might choose to trade it for established players or lower picks. It can significantly reduce risk.

For the Mavericks, who already have a couple of proven superstars who can produce at a high level, I'd certainly trade out of the high-risk #1 pick. Give me a couple of solid, mid-level producers I can count on.

[Chicagojk]

Sure, he may get injured. Sure, he may disappoint even if he is not injured. But if I get the #1 pick, my decision is pretty easy one. He is the best prospect since Lebron. I will take the odds he is legit over one getting injured or underperforming. If Mavs got the #1 pick, I could literally care less what we did with Kyrie. Even if we got a .25 deal on Kyrie, that would be fine. Sure, bring him back. If he wants to go somewhere else, that is ok as well. You would have one top 5 player at age 24 and another one everyone is saying could become a top five player as well.

[ballsrchr]

If we get the pie in the sky #1 pick...nope, nope, nope. Not drafting Wemby. I was on the fence, but I went out and checked his injury history up till now. I perused his body type and musculature. So...nope, I'm not drafting Wemby.

What I am going to do is trade down and get a honeypot load of first round...and maybe a few second round...picks. It's time to load up the team with potential rather than overpriced and over the hill veterans. We don't have many people we should be keeping--maybe 4 or 5.

I could be wrong, I guess...

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Man people on this board really overthinking this and leaving some pretty loud receipts regarding the most sought after prospect in two decades...

[ItsGoTime]

Man people on this board really overthinking this and leaving some pretty loud receipts regarding the most sought after prospect in two decades...

I don’t understand the “overthinking” thing. Why is it overthinking to see what a disaster this team is with so many holes, but 2 superstar players NOT being one of them and it being an overthinking thing to want to get out of this mess asap? The #1 pick, many believe, does that in 1 offseason.

LAL is showing that surrounding your 2 superstars with a good supporting cast makes you that team, as long as your superstars are healthy for the playoffs.

[ItsGoTime]

On top of that response. You said most hyped in 20 years. We’re talking pre-draft hype, so you only have to go back 4 years to Zion Williamson. That’s the cautionary tale!

[ItsGoTime]

Fitting how body type (in the opposite direction) and style of play are the reasons for Zion’s injury history.

[ballsrchr]

Fitting how body type (in the opposite direction) and style of play are the reasons for Zion’s injury history.

I, for one, believe you've hit the nail on the head--even though you may not have intended to.  There's a delicate balance of size, strength, and technique for good play and longevity.  

My 7 foot stepson at 480 pounds is not there, nor are most of the skinny beanpole guys--though some of the real rangy guys (like Dirk) can be deceptively strong and agile.  Better to be thin and rangy than: ...overweight.

[ItsGoTime]

I, for one, believe you've hit the nail on the head--even though you may not have intended to.  There's a delicate balance of size, strength, and technique for good play and longevity.  

My 7 foot stepson at 480 pounds is not there, nor are most of the skinny beanpole guys--though some of the real rangy guys (like Dirk) can be deceptively strong and agile.  Better to be thin and rangy than: ...overweight.

Yes, like all rules, there are exceptions, how much do you gamble that Wemby is the exception? That’s why I gave the % option.

---

However have you talked to you stepson about the WWE?

[DallasMaverick]

Yes, like all rules, there are exceptions, how much do you gamble that Wemby is the exception? That’s why I gave the % option.

---

However have you talked to you stepson about the WWE?

...or Sumo.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

On top of that response. You said most hyped in 20 years. We’re talking pre-draft hype, so you only have to go back 4 years to Zion Williamson. That’s the cautionary tale!

I think there is way more hype here than Zion.  Zion's hype got built up in one year, people have been talking about Wemby since he was like 16.

Is there risk?  Sure there is, but there is risk to any athlete you draft, so you should get the most talented one.  I don't think Zion is the best comparison because he is notoriously out of shape and not motivated to change that while Wemby is already being very conscious of his body because of the exact narrative that is forming in this thread.

If you take this approach to drafting then you would pass on Kevin Durant, Giannis, Dwight Howard and the current MVP.  I would also say that while there is a possibility of Wemby tearing a knee up and missing a year that it doesn't make him not worth the pick.  Blake and Embiid both dealt with injuries early on and have had terrific careers and I also think that it's too early to call Zion a bust.

I just don't think you realize that you're presenting a lot of anecdotal evidence about big man injuries.  There's plenty of examples that you can pull out for smaller in shape players who's bodies just don't hold up because that's what sports can do to anyone.  Brandon Roy, Kawhi, IT.

It's also not like Wemby has dealt with any major injuries yet, the only one of concern was a stress fracture in his fibula that he came back from in 4 months and has looked great since.  Other time he's missed has had nothing to do with his size.

Also, if you have that bird in hand you jump at it and if does show some wear and tear you can always flip it down the road because there will be some medical staff that thinks it can rescue him.  You may get less value but that trade off in value is well worth the risk in this case.

It's just strange to me that we're all saying how much we need to improve our front court and we're also saying that we don't want the best front court prospect since....KAT?  AD?  He just clearly addresses a ton of needs for us and you can explore Kyrie S&T options that can fill additional holes.  Getting the #1 pick can lead to gaining multiple assets in other ways than simply trading the pick itself.

[ItsGoTime]

I think there is way more hype here than Zion.  Zion's hype got built up in one year, people have been talking about Wemby since he was like 16.

It has subsided and not talked about since he entered the league, but I read GOAT predictions with him too. That’s the thing about media hype, they can’t get past the thought that if they don’t one up the last big prediction, then they aren’t saying anything. So no, there is no “more hype here than Zion”.

Is there risk?  Sure there is, but there is risk to any athlete you draft, so you should get the most talented one.  I don't think Zion is the best comparison because he is notoriously out of shape and not motivated to change that while Wemby is already being very conscious of his body because of the exact narrative that is forming in this thread.

Yes, there is risk to every athlete regardless of where you are acquiring him. Traded and FA signed players have risk. Boston found that out quickly with Hayward. I keep saying this, hopefully it doesn’t continue to fall on deaf ears. Our situation with this team is different than most teams in the league. We are the remnants of the horribly run for over a decade Dallas Mavericks. I’ve said if we were, say, the Charlotte Hornets, my thought process on whether or not to take the risk and pick him might be different. Thing is, we are not the Hornets, we’re still the Dallas Mavs and that risk factor when we already have a young superstar and most likely (esp if we trade the pick to get a great team behind him) an aging one after that, we have…meh or less than meh. Take the pick and keep the meh and be back here when Wemby gets season ending injured on game 21, or trade it and have a deep contender that has us talking about next round’s matchup this time next year cause we have a team that can withstand any 1 injury (maybe even Luka if the value of the pick is as much as some have talked about). Zion’s name was brought into the conversation based on pre-draft hype, I then drew the similarities in what I keep talking about with body type (in the opposite direction) and style of play. You’re taking my words out of context outside of those 2 points.

If you take this approach to drafting then you would pass on Kevin Durant, Giannis, Dwight Howard and the current MVP.  I would also say that while there is a possibility of Wemby tearing a knee up and missing a year that it doesn't make him not worth the pick.  Blake and Embiid both dealt with injuries early on and have had terrific careers and I also think that it's too early to call Zion a bust.

See above. It’s not every draft that we have 2 superstars and a large turd. However, if that was the case when those guys came out and their value was as high as some here have said it is? I would be winning championships by trading those picks too. Then, while my young superstar is currently winning championships, I would use all the extra draft compensation to keep my young superstar competitive with the newer superstar that I gave up to win championships and since my young championship superstar has already figured out how to reach the pinnacle, the newer, turns out injury prone non-championship player continues to get schooled by my young championship superstar. Championship (just 1 more time for good measure).

I just don't think you realize that you're presenting a lot of anecdotal evidence about big man injuries.  There's plenty of examples that you can pull out for smaller in shape players who's bodies just don't hold up because that's what sports can do to anyone.  Brandon Roy, Kawhi, IT.

It's also not like Wemby has dealt with any major injuries yet, the only one of concern was a stress fracture in his fibula that he came back from in 4 months and has looked great since.  Other time he's missed has had nothing to do with his size.

I don’t know what to say to you guys that just keep talking about 1 or 2 parts to the 3 part theory. If you’re not going to read the full thoughts, then don’t respond. If you have a question about what you’re reading, ask for clarification. I went through the last  6 drafts looking for guys with height and weight that made them similar build to Wemby (Pokusevski is the only one that came up with a worse build than Wemby’s), none of them is supposed to be as versatile as Wemby (maybe Chet), but Mobley was the only player out of all those listed previously that hasn’t had injury issues. Not many of them have honestly close to the height Wemby has either.

Also, if you have that bird in hand you jump at it and if does show some wear and tear you can always flip it down the road because there will be some medical staff that thinks it can rescue him.  You may get less value but that trade off in value is well worth the risk in this case.

I’d say the bird in hand is trading the pick in a way that gets us a starting lineup of:

Luka/Kyrie/OG/Siakam/Duren

Adding 2-3 FRPs to that and still having Green/Hardy/Stewart off the bench. That’s 4-7 birds in the hand to the 1 in the bush who has never played an NBA game.

It's just strange to me that we're all saying how much we need to improve our front court and we're also saying that we don't want the best front court prospect since....KAT?  AD?  He just clearly addresses a ton of needs for us and you can explore Kyrie S&T options that can fill additional holes.  Getting the #1 pick can lead to gaining multiple assets in other ways than simply trading the pick itself.

I just posted in the Roster thread about the holes we have on this roster. If you disagree with that, then that may be the disconnection. There are varying ideas on the value we could get back from a Kyrie SnT. One thing hasn’t been disagreed to is how much value we can get from #1 on draft day. On top of that, I have yet to get pushback on how screwed this team is with on court or contract values. If you also don’t believe that, I think you’re in the major minority.

[ItsGoTime]

Honestly, there might be 1 saving grace to all of this injury talk. Holger is training him and even if small sample size, it hits home. Maybe I give my % prediction a bump down to 65% because of that. It might be ok if you don’t bring an umbrella.

[ballsrchr]

Yes, like all rules, there are exceptions, how much do you gamble that Wemby is the exception? That’s why I gave the % option.

---

However have you talked to you stepson about the WWE?

Haa...I've talked till I'm blue in the face.  He is a master at anything that can be done laying down.  I have often hypothesized that laying in bed all the time helps one grow tall and/or big.  All that gravity pushing down on them and spreading them out--and up...if they ever stand up.  But no...my wife, his mom, is a 6' tall Norwegian and comes from a very tall family.  It irritates her that she is the shortest in the family by far, including recent ancestors.  I'm the shortest by far in this family, and it doesn't bother me a whit.

To be fair to my stepson he does make a good living troubleshooting and improving computer games.  So I'm happy.  Now if I could just get him out of the back bedroom...

Wemby?  I guess I'm still on the fence...maybe 49/51% to trade the pick.  Damn but it's a sharp picket fence!  Wemby needs to add a lot of muscle to support that frame of his, or be made of bull penis hide--whang leather.

[SweetFidelia]

This height / injury discussion has been brought up by Craig Miller of The Ticket on multiple occasions. The magic # is 7’3” and up. Weight isn’t really a factor. You can find much stuff on the web, such as…As of 2019, only 26 players in NBA history. Only 12 played over 2 NBA seasons (total games). HOF: Ming, Sampson, Sabonis. Porzingis would probably be the next best (highest PPG on the list). Then you’ve got guys like Smits and Ilgauskas….pretty good players. The 3 HOF guys only have 5-6 seasons of games played due to injuries. Sabonis was 31 when he was finally allowed to come over but went downhill pretty fast. Eaton is the games leader at 875. He was never hurt. It’s a really, really small sample, but it’s worth considering.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Man, I normally enjoy your posts but that was an incredibly patronizing response to a post that I felt covered a lot of points. The Zion hype point doesn't really matter all that much but you're clearly stating your opinion as fact which is odd. But to sit there and tell people that they just aren't reading your thoughts fully is super condescending, you've said the same schtick over and over now and act like everyone is missing the point of this thesis that you have in your head. You responded to me listing injury histories of folks with different body types like I'm a third grader and I don't really appreciate that.

You can go ahead and run with your opinion, I'm not going to stop you.

[ItsGoTime]

Man, I normally enjoy your posts but that was an incredibly patronizing response to a post that I felt covered a lot of points.  The Zion hype point doesn't really matter all that much but you're clearly stating your opinion as fact which is odd.  But to sit there and tell people that they just aren't reading your thoughts fully is super condescending, you've said the same schtick over and over now and act like everyone is missing the point of this thesis that you have in your head.  You responded to me listing injury histories of folks with different body types like I'm a third grader and I don't really appreciate that.

You can go ahead and run with your opinion, I'm not going to stop you.

Ok, my built up frustration of people not giving an inch on this boiled over on you. I’m sorry for that. The response was to you, but a lot of it was directed at all that have been coming at me about this. 

What I was stating as fact in the Zion case is that hype can’t go any higher than GOAT (or the media has yet to figure out that higher step). So once GOAT hype is claimed, there is no more hype to really achieve. It’s not talked about anymore because of what has happened with him since.

Part of my frustration is when you say I have this thesis “in my head”. If that isn’t telling me I haven’t been pouring out that thesis over the last month in various places, then please tell me what you meant. I know there have been a few spots I’ve discussed all parts to the theory together, there hasn’t been an full on diatribe to put everything in one place. Part of that is I didn’t think there would be this much determination in rebuttal. I’ll try to work out a more cleanly written theory.