New CBA agreement

[omahen]

The new Minimum Team Salary rules will be fully in force for 2023-24, with one minor exception. For the 2023-24 season only, a team under the minimum team salary on day 1 will be eligible for ONE HALF of a share of tax receipts, rather than zero.

(Per the summarized notes I was given access to, which were written by NBA)

This means, every team will aggresively try to fill their cap in the summer. It can have two consequences - some FA might be overpaid as teams will be looking to fill their cap space. We could especially see some high short term deals. The other thing could be that prices for dumping players will drop, since teams will be more incentivized to take salary.

[F Gump]

I think the most impactful change from the new CBA is that it effectively puts a real limit on spending. Technically not a hard cap, but effectively one will be there at Apron 1 (for 2023-24, about $170M).

That means you can't just chase talent, but you also have to figure out how that talent fits into your payroll. And the ability to spend is way more limited than a lot of our proposals, because a roster with 2 stars is confined to something like this (and unfortunately, Mavs don't have much room for new players):

STAR - 40M Luka
STAR - 40M Kyrie
20M THJ
20M Maxi-Bullock
20M [MLE]-[BAE, or player via Wood snt at MLE-ish]

5M Green
5M Pick 10
5M McGee
5M [dead money Bertans SW]

2M (min) Hardy
2M (min)
2M (min)
2M (min)
2M (min)
2M (min)

[IamDougieFresh]

All I know about the new CBA is from you guys so correct me if you have a different interpretation… Sounds like the draft is more important than ever.

[F Gump]

"Sounds like the draft is more important than ever. "

Both the draft, and the less glittery side of free agency.

Finding and signing players for the minimum, or for less than 5M, will be crucial to filling out the playing roster with enough pieces who are needed. Until Cuban hires someone who is a genius in those areas, the Mavs' inability to EXPERTLY evaluate, draft, and negotiate are going to be massive handicaps, likely insurmountable, in building out a roster to compete at the highest level.

[ThisIStheYear]

Yes. Sounds like the new CBA screws the Mavs and makes it likely they’re forced to trade Doncic after another year or so. The 10th pick gives them some hope if they hit a home run. Trade options are difficult because they can’t bring back a third big salary over the long term. A sign and trade for Irving where they get back at least equal value to what they gave up may be a path, but that one is outside the Mav’s control. Maybe you move back and add two or three rookies instead of the 10th pick. The Mavs just don’t have enough quality or quantity after losing Brunson for nothing, giving Barnes away, striking out in every free agency move, and managing the KP trade so it’s a big net loss. Best case scenario is probably a team that’s exquisitely designed to allow Luka to win a scoring title and finish as an 8th seed. That would still be entertaining at least. Or, perhaps the Mavs could try changing coaches.

[Mavs2021]

"Sounds like the draft is more important than ever. "

Both the draft, and the less glittery side of free agency.

Finding and signing players for the minimum, or for less than 5M, will be crucial to filling out the playing roster with enough pieces who are needed. Until Cuban hires someone who is a genius in those areas, the Mavs' inability to EXPERTLY evaluate, draft, and negotiate are going to be massive handicaps, likely insurmountable, in building out a roster to compete at the highest level.

I doubt it´s a problem of expertise. Hobby analysts on this board can frequently identify buy-low targets. I have to believe even the low-level competence center of the Mavs front office could occasionally nail such a pick-up, if it was a strategic directive. It´s that Cuban´s directive is 1000% anti-draft, anti-youth, anti-upside evaluation. He just wants veteran NAMES. 

But I agree that sadly this whole new CBA reads like a manual to do everything that Cuban does not believe in. That´s why I´m saying please don´t be the first to make a trade on draft night, cause you´ll get the values so wrong....again.

[F Gump]

I doubt it´s a problem of expertise.

I do. Cumulative results over time tell if the decision maker has elite level expertise in getting his job done expertly.

"I knew what to do but went a different direction" does not change an ongoing fail result. Instead it reveals that the expertise of the decision-maker is deficient because they don't know how to set the right priorities to get the proper result (or they are lying to cover their butt for repeated failure).

"We have lots of smart people offering good ideas" is not expertise either. That's no different than having a library full of reference books and a computer full of how-to videos. Having access to good ideas is not having expertise unless those resources are then used to make decisions that get the results at an expert level. Ideas can be many and varied, so much of the genius of a genius is knowing how to separate out the best from the rest, and get it done.

Also it's not just a lack of high-level ideas they can't find a way to execute, but there's a bigger hole in the expertise than that -- by every indication, Cuban has no real long term vision and road map for how to get from where they are to where they want to be. At best it appears he just stumbles towards a series of one-off ideas, that may or may not go anywhere. But "the rest of the story," having a plan for filling in the gaps that will bring ongoing improvement, there's none of that.

An expert GM setting the course, and making the decisions would be a game-changer. But those are expensive; and Cuban's been proving for a while that he's not the big spender he likes to play on TV.

[Mavs2021]

I do. Cumulative results over time tell if the decision maker has elite level expertise in getting his job done expertly.

"I knew what to do but went a different direction" does not change an ongoing fail result. Instead it reveals that the expertise of the decision-maker is deficient because they don't know how to set the right priorities to get the proper result (or they are lying to cover their butt for repeated failure).

"We have lots of smart people offering good ideas" is not expertise either. That's no different than having a library full of reference books and a computer full of how-to videos. Having access to good ideas is not having expertise unless those resources are then used to make decisions that get the results at an expert level. Ideas can be many and varied, so much of the genius of a genius is knowing how to separate out the best from the rest, and get it done.

Also it's not just a lack of high-level ideas they can't find a way to execute, but there's a bigger hole in the expertise than that -- by every indication, Cuban has no real long term vision and road map for how to get from where they are to where they want to be. At best it appears he just stumbles towards a series of one-off ideas, that may or may not go anywhere. But "the rest of the story," having a plan for filling in the gaps that will bring ongoing improvement, there's none of that.

An expert GM setting the course, and making the decisions would be a game-changer. But those are expensive; and Cuban's been proving for a while that he's not the big spender he likes to play on TV.

Well that´s basically saying the same thing. Cuban controls everything from the top. He´s a moron. Nobody is willing to confront him, cause they like their job security or/and know it´s useless to even try. We have 25 years of evidence that Cuban does what he wants, has no interest in a powerful figure besides himself and won´t listen to anybody. The end result is the same. The fish stinks from the head.

Maybe Lindsey can bring some directional change or direction at all, but like you, I highly doubt it as long as Cuban is firmly in charge.

The lack of self-awareness where you are in the standings, what your roster set-up looks like. Jazz, Pelicans, Kings, Thunder, Wolves, Grizzlies (Morant aside) etc. are younger and deeper teams that will naturally improve and while this might not translate into play-off success immediately, it will translate into regular seasons wins, which means we´ll have a hard time to jump back into the play-in, let alone the top 6.

[ItsGoTime]

The new CBA requires a team to figure out the best 8 players to fit and get paid as much as possible, vet min and rookie scale contracts after that. If you manage to fit a vet min/rookie salary into the top 8, you’re ahead of the game. Got to have the right starters first though.

[DanSchwartzgan]

From a personal source, found some previously unreported CBA changes that I think will make a noticeable difference:
 
2 There are significant hits to team flexibility by being over over the FIRST apron. In a trade, they get 110% matching for 2023-24 season, but then it's 100% (no multiplier) in future years. Everyone else gets 200% rather than the prior 175% (NOTE - that is limited by the $5M spread as before, except it's been increased to 7.5M and will now inflate with future cap growth). 

I heard the 110% matching described as another way of being hard capped on the NBA Front Office Podcast today.  So, like using the MLE or taking on a S&T, if you do a trade with more than 110% matching, you are hard capped at the first apron 

This adds to the argument that Bertans will be S/W'd.  If we do nothing but bring back the gang...Luka, Kyrie (@ $40mm Year One), THJ, Maxi, Bullock, #10, McGee, Green, Hardy, some combination of MLE/BAE/Powell that totals $16.7mm and 3 minimum slots, we are $5mm under the first apron with $4.4mm for the S/W.  Without the stretch, we are approaching the second apron.  The flexibility appears to be night and day between the two. 

Three questions:

1.  Is the 200% up to 7.5mm rule in effect in 23/24?  If so, it would appear taxpaying teams who are under the apron have a practical matching rule that is 200% capped at the first apron or $7.5mm (whichever hits first).  

2.  Have you seen yet whether the Full MLE will be able to be used as a TE in the 23/24 season?  

3.  You've illustrated that apron math (for minimum's) is different than cap room math.  Under 'apron math', do you have to account for 15 spots or can you stop at 14?

Thanks in advance

[F Gump]

Yes, in addition to all the other ways we've had to create a hard-cap at Apron 1, using trade matching above 110% (or 100% after this coming season) will make you hard-capped at Apron 1.

1 yes -- as long as you stay under Apron 1, lots of flexibility
2 no -- that rule starts July 2024 and is allowed on all the annual exceptions except TxMLE
3 14 is the general roster minimum through the season (and you count all salaries of whatever number you have)

Irrelevant to any of the above, I ran into another little goodie being added that you might like -- once we get to the end of the 2023-24 regular season, all TPE's will expire and will not carry over for use in the post-season or free agency. Each year, the end of the regular season will become the expiration date for all of them.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Yes, in addition to all the other ways we've had to create a hard-cap at Apron 1, using trade matching above 110% (or 100% after this coming season) will make you hard-capped at Apron 1.

1 yes  -- as long as you stay under Apron 1, lots of flexibility
2 no  -- that rule starts July 2024 and is allowed on all the annual exceptions except TxMLE
3 14 is the general roster minimum through the season (and you count all salaries of whatever number you have)

Irrelevant to any of the above, I ran into another little goodie being added that you might like -- once we get to the end of the 2023-24 regular season, all TPE's will expire and will not carry over for use in the post-season or free agency. Each year, the end of the regular season will become the expiration date for all of them.

Thanks for all of that.  I'd seen where TPE's expire each year, but didn't dream it would be at the end of the regular season.  Yikes!  

It seems really imperative that if Dallas wants to make a splash this summer, they need to either:

1. Get most of their work done in June

2. Get themselves well below the first apron and then do the things they want to do to get right back up to it (even if it hard caps them this year).   Maybe that is some or all of the TPE.  Maybe that is a trade with greater than 110% matching.  I'm more convinced than I was before that Kyrie's number is going to be flexible.  Whatever we have left up to a hair below the first apron.

Trading down in the draft for picks, players and to reduce salary starts to make more sense (Utah has multiple TPE's that would absorb McGee).  Maybe you S/W Bertans or maybe you S/W Reggie's guaranteed amount.  But if you want a sizable trade spread and use of most of the MLE, you can't stand still.

Once you have the team you want in place, you can fiddle around the edges (TP MLE and 100% trade matching) if you stay under the first apron.  Or, you can drift over the first apron and kind of screw your flexibility.  This may really hurt the little cottage industry that exists around player movement at the TDL and in the offseason.

[DallasMaverick]

Thanks for all of that.  I'd seen where TPE's expire each year, but didn't dream it would be at the end of the regular season.  Yikes!  

It seems really imperative that if Dallas wants to make a splash this summer, they need to either:

1. Get most of their work done in June

2. Get themselves well below the first apron and then do the things they want to do to get right back up to it (even if it hard caps them this year).   Maybe that is some or all of the TPE.  Maybe that is a trade with greater than 110% matching.  I'm more convinced than I was before that Kyrie's number is going to be flexible.  Whatever we have left up to a hair below the first apron.

Trading down in the draft for picks, players and to reduce salary starts to make more sense (Utah has multiple TPE's that would absorb McGee).  Maybe you S/W Bertans or maybe you S/W Reggie's guaranteed amount.  But if you want a sizable trade spread and use of most of the MLE, you can't stand still.

Once you have the team you want in place, you can fiddle around the edges (TP MLE and 100% trade matching) if you stay under the first apron.  Or, you can drift over the first apron and kind of screw your flexibility.  This may really hurt the little cottage industry that exists around player movement at the TDL and in the offseason.

Might be an argument for keeping the #10 pick rather than trading for an established player. On the other hand, if the trade brings back a contributing player on a value contract, and dumps a marginally-performing contract...

Either way, the goal is to find and retain players that perform at or above their pay level.

[F Gump]

Thanks for all of that.  I'd seen where TPE's expire each year, but didn't dream it would be at the end of the regular season.  Yikes!  

It seems really imperative that if Dallas wants to make a splash this summer, they need to either:

1. Get most of their work done in June

2. Get themselves well below the first apron and then do the things they want to do to get right back up to it (even if it hard caps them this year).   Maybe that is some or all of the TPE.  Maybe that is a trade with greater than 110% matching.  I'm more convinced than I was before that Kyrie's number is going to be flexible.  Whatever we have left up to a hair below the first apron.

Trading down in the draft for picks, players and to reduce salary starts to make more sense (Utah has multiple TPE's that would absorb McGee).  Maybe you S/W Bertans or maybe you S/W Reggie's guaranteed amount.  But if you want a sizable trade spread and use of most of the MLE, you can't stand still.

Once you have the team you want in place, you can fiddle around the edges (TP MLE and 100% trade matching) if you stay under the first apron.  Or, you can drift over the first apron and kind of screw your flexibility.  This may really hurt the little cottage industry that exists around player movement at the TDL and in the offseason.

" Get most of their work done in June "

A note about this -- after June 2023, the transaction season in May-June becomes more blurred with July. Of particular note is that starting at the end of the regular season a year from now (and each year thereafter), what you do after your season impacts whether you are hard-capped for the ensuing season. (IOW, if you use "greater than 100% trade matching" in a 2024 draft day trade, for example, you will be hard-capped at Apron 1 through the end of the 2024-25 regular season). And in May 2024 the added limits for teams over Apron 2 hit as well (no aggregating, no cash tips to another team in trade, no snt's either way in trade).

If you are above Apron 1, it will be easy to drop salary, but virtually impossible to add it via trade. And over Apron 2, all you have are trades and minimums and re-signing your own.

[ItsGoTime]

Thanks for all of that.  I'd seen where TPE's expire each year, but didn't dream it would be at the end of the regular season.  Yikes!  

It seems really imperative that if Dallas wants to make a splash this summer, they need to either:

1. Get most of their work done in June

2. Get themselves well below the first apron and then do the things they want to do to get right back up to it (even if it hard caps them this year).   Maybe that is some or all of the TPE.  Maybe that is a trade with greater than 110% matching.  I'm more convinced than I was before that Kyrie's number is going to be flexible.  Whatever we have left up to a hair below the first apron.

Trading down in the draft for picks, players and to reduce salary starts to make more sense (Utah has multiple TPE's that would absorb McGee).  Maybe you S/W Bertans or maybe you S/W Reggie's guaranteed amount.  But if you want a sizable trade spread and use of most of the MLE, you can't stand still.

Once you have the team you want in place, you can fiddle around the edges (TP MLE and 100% trade matching) if you stay under the first apron.  Or, you can drift over the first apron and kind of screw your flexibility.  This may really hurt the little cottage industry that exists around player movement at the TDL and in the offseason.

Ok, this to me is the best argument to S/W Bertans. It all hinges on the execution though. It does make a much better case to use #10 to dump Bertans contract, however the 10 is overcompensation and there is little on their team I want back (Sochan?). SA seems like the only option at the draft, and with Wallace almost certainly available there would be really good incentive IMO. Question becomes what 3rd team? 

I’d say, if we want cap room, young rookie scale contract(s) are what we want back. A ton of the young names that are desirable are players just coming off of their rookie deal. Tough to get around a tampering investigation if we go after a snt deal at the draft. 

Is Atlanta a good option here? Something like:

Johnson to Atl
Collins, Bertans and #10 to SA
Bey to Dal

Can SA absorb that much salary at the draft? This gets us out of the S/W business and gets a young decent player in the process. The hope would be for Bey to fit in well from the start. Would asking for Sochan in such a deal be too much?

Another angle I haven’t seen talked about here is our use of the 5th year on Kyrie’s contract. If the number that makes him happy is in the $200M range, most have talked about a 4 year deal for him. What if we stretched that out to 5 years on a flat $40M per year type deal. I wonder if that works for him? That starts to look like getting max possible cap space now type negotiations.

Again, it’s all comes down to the execution of the space created.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Ok, this to me is the best argument to S/W Bertans. It all hinges on the execution though. It does make a much better case to use #10 to dump Bertans contract, however the 10 is overcompensation and there is little on their team I want back (Sochan?). SA seems like the only option at the draft, and with Wallace almost certainly available there would be really good incentive IMO. Question becomes what 3rd team? 

 
Bey to Dal

Can SA absorb that much salary at the draft?  

SA is the only team that can absorb Bertans in June (Brooklyn can but won't).  SA has about $22mm of room, so they could actually take Bertans and McGee.  Unfortunately, that space will come at a high price.  Just as a for instance, would Phoenix give away Shamet for zero return if they could?

I kind of like Utah as a trade partner in a trade down.  They just have so much stuff to deal with...16, 28 and three picks in 2025.  They have all sorts of TE's.  And, they don't have cap/tax issues in 23/24 (this is important).  They have a TPE big enough to absorb Maxi, another big enough to absorb McGee and still another that would take the guaranteed part of Reggie.   They don't have a logical player we might take in a direct trade. OKC is another candidate.  They can absorb Reggie (and keep him) and we move down two spots.  Maybe we take back Kenrich Williams as part of the deal to provide a cheap wing defender with more size than Reggie.  Or, maybe we swap McGee for K-Rich and they take Reggie into their TE.  They also have 3 first rounders in 2024.

So, your thinking in terms of this being a multi-team deal makes sense.  We involve a team like Utah/OKC to crawl far enough below the first apron that we have room to do some things.  If you can get far enough under, your offseason additions are: 

1. one trade that fully leverages the allowed trade spread, 
2. whatever draft pick you still have and 
3. one of either:
     a. The Full MLE or 
     b. What your get back from a Wood S&T or a Bertans trade with full spread (which opens up the world beyond just FA's)


I think the path to one of the guys we talk about a lot (Collins, Draymond, Capela, Ayton) from a team that needs to dump salary is to send out salary to someone like OKC or Utah and move down a few slots.  That way, Atlanta or GS or Phoenix isn't taking the full brunt of the matching salary.  You have to trust your scouts.  You also have to muck up the trade enough that it doesn't look like a straight salary dump.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

I like Dray and Capela from that group. Not much interest in Collins or Ayton at their salaries. Capela has two years left at 23m per. So we’d have two years to develop a young big. If we could move down and still get Lively that’d be huge win. And flexibility for trades/MLE

[ItsGoTime]

I like Dray and Capela from that group. Not much interest in Collins or Ayton at their salaries. Capela has two years left at 23m per. So we’d have two years to develop a young big. If we could move down and still get Lively that’d be huge win. And flexibility for trades/MLE

This has long been one of my favorite ideas. After Capela’s contract expires, the hope is for him to become a bench C with Lively stepping up and starting. We have a couple years of cheap C’s until Lively comes up for extension. Only issue might be OKC’s need for a C. They could take him at 12. If not, our C position is sewn up for years.

[F Gump]

Some fine print on a new rule noted above:

THE RULE: Once we get to the end of the 2023-24 regular season, TPE's will expire and will not carry over for use in the post-season or free agency.

THE FINE PRINT: This TPE cut-off only applies to teams who are over Apron 1 at the end of the regular season. One more incentive to stay under the apron, and one more way to prevent over-apron teams from adding salary.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Second Apron Teams Can Trade Out Own Player For Aggregated Players
JUN 19, 2023 3:31 PM


Under the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement, teams over the second luxury tax apron cannot aggregate their own players in a trade. But they can send a player out for a combination of aggregated players.
There were questions of whether the Phoenix Suns were under a deadline to trade Deandre Ayton as they are now projected to be over the second apron in the future.

Bobby Marks clarified that stipulation during a podcast appearance with Zach Lowe, citing executives with teams he spoke to over the past day.

The NBA's next collective bargaining agreement has not yet been published by the league and NBPA.
BOBBY MARKS/ESPN