New CBA agreement

[DanSchwartzgan]

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[F Gump]

Thanks for sharing that summary.

I would add that some of those restrictions apply to being over Apron 1 as well, including the 110% limit. The 110 goes to 100 at the end of this coming season, applicable to Apron 1 as well as 2. The loss of TEs at the end of a season applies to both as well.

The new rules as known are written in clunky verbiage, which Marks reflects, but the concept to understand is that by the end of this coming season they are doing their best to make it impossible for Apron 2 teams to add salary except by pick or re-sign your own or minimums. Trades require less salary coming back, not only overall, but also in relation to each player sent out. And Apron 2 teams can't do ANY sign and trade, period, either coming or going, so if you don't sign your own FA, you can't use him to get talent back.

[DanSchwartzgan]

NBA Projects 23-24 Salary Cap At $136M, Luxury Tax At $165M
JUN 21, 2023 12:55 PM


The NBA has informed teams that the 23-24 salary cap is projected at $136 million, which is $2 million higher than their previous projection.

The luxury tax will be set at $165 million, which is $3 million higher than their previous projection.

The salary cap for the 22-23 season was set at $123.655 million.

[F Gump]

NBA Projects 23-24 Salary Cap At $136M, Luxury Tax At $165M

Yes, those are slight increases from prior projections, and the cap can't go much higher (the limit is 136,021,000).

That also would increase the other numbers we work with. The most relevant would be (approx):
Apron 1  172,000,000
Apron 2 182,500,000
NonTxpMLE  12,403,200
TxpMLE  5,000,000
RmMLE  7,722,080
BAE  4,514,820
Pick 10 (120%)  5,290,500
Rookie Min  1,119,400
2 yr exp min  2,019,400

[DanSchwartzgan]

New trade matching starting in July for teams under the first apron:

As of July 1, for teams below the apron:

• Up to $7.5 million in outgoing salary can bring back 200 percent plus $250,000
  
• $7,500,001 to $29 million will be padded by a flat $7.5 million
  
• Above $29 million will be limited to 125 percent plus $250,000
  

https://www.sportsbusinessclassroom.com/...agreement/


So, McGee alone can bring back $11.7mm.  2 x $5.7mm plus $250k
Fully guaranteed Reggie can bring back $17.989mm.  $10.489mm plus $7.5mm

Bertans outgoing in the not-completed deal with OKC can bring back $24.5mm ($12mm of that is used up by Holmes not counting his TK, leaving $12.5mm).  There is room here for Utah do just drop Olynyk into this deal and not take back salary or LAC to do the same with Batum or Covington.  Note that $12.5mm is basically a second MLE.  

There isn't room under the apron to use this much extra salary AND the MLE.  But, if the team was willing to S/W Reggie, it could absorb any one of those three players I mentioned, use the MLE and pay Kyrie almost his full max and stay under the apron (or pay him just under $40mm and stay under the TAX).  Obviously, you can add McGee or THJ's salary to $12.5mm and get whatever that comes to in returning salary since the spread is already in the numbers.  So, for example, LAC could dump Marcus Morris to us for $17mm and take back only McGee if they wanted to move some salary.  Or, we could send McGee to a team that doesn't mind sending us a S&T player making $18.2mm (McGee could go to a third team with a TE or cap space and the team with the $18mm S&T player wouldn't have to absorb any salary).

Also, TE's now have a $250k spread instead of $100k of the past.  So, if Bertans ends up being non-simultaneous, the TE could bring back as much as $5.25mm in round numbers.  $5mm of TE plus the $250k spread.

Edit:  The part in RED above is off by about $2mm as I didn't account for a minimum slot.  It is discussed and corrected in the post further down this tread.

[F Gump]

Thanks for the outline and your analysis.

Two broad picture comments:
1 " So, if Bertans ends up being non-simultaneous....." --- I'm not sure what you mean by that, but I'm guessing your intent would be better worded as "So if the Bertans remainder ends up being non-simultaneous" with the idea of talking of an amount not used.

But it may help the general understanding to note that despite the way it was reported (ie, 1 Mavs are getting a 17M TPE in OKC deal, followed by 2 the Mavs spent 12M of that TPE on Holmes), the reality is that the SAC deal will almost certainly be added onto the DAL/OKC deal (it would be foolish to do it any other way), making it a 3-way DAL/OKC/SAC deal. And before all is said and done, they might add more players and/or teams. You probably know this, but others might not.

If what's been done so far is all that happens, then yes the Mavs get to bank a TPE for the difference between DB salary and RH salary, as you noted. But they could effectively piggyback onto that trade to offer a big chunk of payroll savings and get a preferred player as a result.

2 Whether it's spent in free agency (including MLE and minimums), an add-on to the existing 3-way, banking a remainder TPE and then using it, sign-and-trades, a trade with a difference in salary coming and going, or some combo of those, the Mavs only have $X more left to add to current payroll (not counting minimums), and X isn't a real big number. It is somewhere in the vicinity of the MLE right now.

So I would think the Mavs aren't likely to offer much if any payroll space in a trade unless it will be bringing THE Player who would be worth more than any MLE player they could get.

And part of my point being that with the limited room they have, I don't think the Mavs are focusing on ways to make an even wider spread (between incoming and outgoing) in a trade this summer. More likely to be looking at swaps where total salary is fairly close both ways.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thanks for the outline and your analysis.

 
2 Whether it's spent in free agency (including MLE and minimums), an add-on to the existing 3-way, banking a remainder TPE and then using it, sign-and-trades, a trade with a difference in salary coming and going, or some combo of those, the Mavs only have $X more left to add to current payroll (not counting minimums), and X isn't a real big number. It is somewhere in the vicinity of the MLE right now.
 

Unless you S/W Reggie (which is what the post says).  

The math is kind of interesting, but it requires the same qualifiers we've been using for weeks (14 players, Kyrie at $40mm to start and Holmes waives his TK).  If another incoming player is added to the Bertans/Holmes deal (with nothing outgoing), there is room as a trade match to take back $12,500,000 in round numbers.  $17mm (Bertans) + $7.5mm (Spread) - $12mm (Holmes) = $12.5mm.  That is basically a second MLE level salary whether it is used for a player under contract or a FA.  

Plug in that $12.5mm into the spreadsheet and add $1.8mm of dead money and spend the real MLE of $12.4mm.  It leaves you about half a million under the apron.  Adding a player making up to $12.5mm to the Bertans/Holmes deal doesn't wipe out use of the MLE.  You can do both and it fits almost perfectly.  Once you've used the spread in that way, you can add outgoing for incoming on a dollar-for-dollar basis (but you have to add a minimum wage guy to replace Reggie if you do that).  

If McGee goes out in the Bertans/Holmes deal...$12.5mm becomes $16.2mm of usable space to trade for someone ($18.2mm minus a minimum).  That is a $10.5mm trade spread and it doesn't change the ability to spend the MLE.  Replace McGee with THJ as additional outgoing in the Bertans/Holmes trade and we can literally bring in a player making $28.5mm player AND use the MLE.  Again, combining this with the open trade provides a $10.5mm trade spread instead of $7.5mm.  I can't imagine why they wouldn't consider using that technique with the wider trade spread (and therefore less incoming money for the other team) if there was a deal to be made out there.

The fatal flaw in all of this is the S/W of Reggie which is set to be decided mid week.  He wasn't very valuable to the on-court product last year, but he is $10.5mm of expiring money in a July deal in a year where expiring money is more valuable than usual.  If you don't use the S/W on him, then you are right.  You can't stack the trade, bring back extra money AND use the MLE.  You can still stack the trades and get an unusually high spread, but with Reggie's money still on the books, there isn't a path the the MLE in addition to the other.  

There is, however, room to stack more onto the Bertans/Holmes deal and use the TP MLE at $5mm.  You can stack Reggie onto the deal, use the TP MLE and bring back about $22mm (existing contract or S&T).  Sub McGee for Reggie as the stacked outgoing and you can get someone making $16.2mm and use the TP MLE and still be under the first apron.  $16mm and $22mm are better than $12.4mm, but it requires some work.  Even if we don't S/W Reggie, I'd probably rather shop in this part of the free agent market (and have the $5m MLE) than settle for the $12.4mm MLE.

[Jason Terry]

Excellent work in here y’all! It’s very much appreciated

Maybe we can get Reggie to move the guarantee date to July

[F Gump]

[selected items]
1 Unless you S/W Reggie (which is what the post says).  

2 The fatal flaw in all of this is the S/W of Reggie which is set to be decided mid week.  H

3 There is, however, room to stack more onto the Bertans/Holmes deal and use the TP MLE at $5mm.  

1 Ok, got it. Missed it before, Thx.

2  It's possible to revise deadlines, by mutual agreement. There are a lot of factors in play with RB and his contract.

3 I didn't want to wade into the exact numbers being floated at this point, but I'm assuming that you would be using the TxpMLE because you busted Apron 1. In general I suspect this wouldn't be a practical path to pursue in comparison to the others. 

A trade spread beyond 110% triggers a hard cap at Apron 1. Using the TxpMLE doesn't remove that hard cap, once created.

[MarkAguirreWrathofGod]

So this would be a route to pursue “big swing” guys like Jerami Grant, PJ Washington, Bruce Brown or Kuz.

Grant and Washington (especially) would be interesting in that you could field a super effective “small” 5-out closing playoff lineup of PJ or Jerami, Maxi, Green, Luka, Kyrie.

Does Charlotte match a 20m offer for Washington? Does the max mentioned above, I think it was 28m, get it done for Grant if Dame leaves. Jerami Grant seems like a relationships guy. His moves to Detroit were built around Troy Weaver (Syracuse connection) and then Dame. Grant is a Klutch guy, which we now roster two of in Hardy and Lively.

[Reunion Mav]

Excellent work in here y’all! It’s very much appreciated

Maybe we can get Reggie to move the guarantee date to July

Ditto the appreciation.

[F Gump]

So this would be a route to pursue “big swing” guys like Jerami Grant, PJ Washington, Bruce Brown or Kuz.

Grant and Washington (especially) would be interesting in that you could field a super effective “small” 5-out closing playoff lineup of PJ or Jerami, Maxi, Green, Luka, Kyrie.

Does Charlotte match a 20m offer for Washington? Does the max mentioned above, I think it was 28m, get it done for Grant if Dame leaves. Jerami Grant seems like a relationships guy. His moves to Detroit were built around Troy Weaver (Syracuse connection) and then Dame. Grant is a Klutch guy, which we now roster two of in Hardy and Lively.

For me, Brown at the MLE would be the highest priority target. And there's no other way for Mavs to get him than that.

As for the other 3 ...I'd much prefer Gafford as a trade target than any of those at 20M starting salary or more.

[ThisIStheYear]

So we have until Wednesday to waive Reggie and save approximately half his contract ($5 million). BBall Index has a good metric called LEBRON that looks at box score stats and adjusted plus minus to assess value. It says that Reggie was worth -$975,000 last year. That’s negative as in he should have been paying the Mavericks, presumably, for all the minutes he got. Being so bad yet getting minutes is a privilege afforded to very few in this league. Negative is a lot less than $5 million. If the Mavs don’t plan to use him in a trade, Reggie should be waived.

[F Gump]

The 2023 CBA has now been completed and ratified.

The text of the agreement is 676 pages and is here, if you are interested: https://imgix.cosmicjs.com/25da5eb0-15eb...-28-23.pdf

[MFFL]

The Athletic had a nice write up

https://theathletic.com/4607105/2023/06/...new-rules/

[SleepingHero]

New NBA salary cap numbers for 2023-2024, per sources: Salary Cap: $136M; Tax Level: $165.2M; First Apron: $172.3M; Second Apron: $182.7M; Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: 12.4M. The salary cap and tax levels will rise 10%

[MFFL]

P331 of new CBA

https://twitter.com/KT_3410/status/16774...31873?s=20