THE CRUCIFIX: Cato: Wood isn't thrilled w/ his role...Will depart in the summer

[ItsGoTime]

Not exactly. There's a big difference between the "eventual" cost after a breakout season being right away, versus it arriving in 3-4 years after the breakout, during which time you have the player giving you large value on a relatively small contract.

Unless the breakout is attached to upcoming years where the player will be outplaying his contract, you really gain little in the roster-building equation by the breakout season, because there's no difference between re-signing your own FA who is worth X and signing some other team's FA who is also worth X. And we can't say that a player who is our own FA will necessarily re-sign here.

You have to navigate things to gain value that can last. In this case, you extend Wood (if we can assume he's worth 17M) or you gain your value by trading him for a similar-value player to what he has become, and let someone else deal with free agency.

Contract doesn't matter if they don't break out. That is why getting them before the breakout regardless of if they're expiring or just signed a contract is the most important part.