THE CRUCIFIX: Cato: Wood isn't thrilled w/ his role...Will depart in the summer

[mvossman]

False.

Statistical analysis of the history of the draft show that the pick is 55% a star, solid player, or role player, while 45% a bust. 

Better than a 50/50 chance that player is in your rotation in the future. That is not small.

I find that hard to believe.  I guess it depends on the concept of role player.  From my perspective, in order for a draft pick to be of significant value, they need to be worth at least MLE value prior to their second contract.  I'm wondering if the "role player" definition above equates to that?