DRAFT: #18 [Green] & #31 [Terry] & trade for #36 [Tyler Bey]

[KillerLeft]

Well, I highly doubt they view anyone in this class as a "star." You and I read that DMN story very differently. I read it as three, separate pieces of news, whereas you seem to have interpreted the bullet points as one, layered message. Interesting. 

Either way, I don't doubt Hayes could play here. I just think it would be a waste of his potential, in a weird way. I wouldn't say NO, it's just that I think they could get someone who might be a little bit of an easier fit without having to trade up past 10.

---

I think Vassell, SBey, and Nesmith all have VERY real chances to be available at #10 and SBey and Nesmith could make it to #14 in a lot of scenarios. SBey and Nesmith making it to #18 is a chance...but REALLY small IMO.

Yeah. If they trade up, I like that 10th spot. I don't think they have what Atlanta wants for #6.

[Kammrath]

Well, I highly doubt they view anyone in this class as a "star."

What do you mean? 

Like not an immediate "star" like Luka or can't even be that?

You don't think Hayes has star potential?

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You and I read that DMN story very differently

I read that story as the Mavs are chasing stars this summer and doing in lots of different ways.

I think they MUST see someone in the lottery as a "star" (at least potential) if they have a "strong desire" to move up there.

But I could be wrong and maybe they want a star in FA and want into the lottery for a role player like Vassell.

[KillerLeft]

You don't think Hayes has star potential?

Potential, yes! So do others. But, I don't think any of them are nearly as obvious as like a Luka, Zion, etc, and even they were risks, right? 

But, in terms of potential, that's kind of my point. If he's that high on comparative potential, then he'll go high. If he ends up playing 2nd banana behind someone whose skills overlap sooooo much, like Luka, I would think that curtails the potential a bit. Slows it down, at least. Since it's so pricey to get up into that top 5-7 range (even in a year like this where the top picks are a bit cheaper) it just seems like a team motivated to make that move would be doing so because they think he can be their Luka, not a double down on a skillset so similar to their cornerstone. If he falls, SURE! But why blow your wad trying to move up soooo high? 

Maybe I'm just smoking crack though. I didn't like the Kemba stuff at the time, either, but I certainly get it now. That's a decent point. And, I generally agree with your thinking that in a year when so many teams are trying to trade down, possibly going up is the smart move. I get that. 

Idk...just thinking about it all.

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I read that story as the Mavs are chasing stars this summer and doing in lots of different ways.

I think they MUST see someone in the lottery as a "star" (at least potential) if they have a "strong desire" to move up there.

But I could be wrong and maybe they want a star in FA and want into the lottery for a role player like Vassell.

Yeah, that's what I figured you got out of it through the context of your posts. The last sentence was my take away. Not sure which interpretation is correct. It's just interesting how people get different meanings from things.

[Kammrath]

I generally agree with your thinking that in a year when so many teams are trying to trade down, possibly going up is the smart move. I get that. 

I remember a quote from Cuban a number of years ago where he said basically your strategy needs to be doing what other teams aren't. Basically because the market is against you. 

This is why I am so intrigued by the Mavs suddenly seeming to have interest in THIS year's free agency AND moving up in the draft. The league is zigging right now for a number of reasons and the Mavs might suddenly zag. And I would LOVE that.

[KillerLeft]

I generally agree with your thinking that in a year when so many teams are trying to trade down, possibly going up is the smart move. I get that. 

I remember a quote from Cuban a number of years ago where he said basically your strategy needs to be doing what other teams aren't. Basically because the market is against you. 

This is why I am so intrigued by the Mavs suddenly seeming to have interest in THIS year's free agency AND moving up in the draft. The league is zigging right now for a number of reasons and the Mavs might suddenly zag. And I would LOVE that.

Agreed.

[KillerLeft]

https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/13...80772?s=20

[LukaDrive]

https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/13...80772?s=20

I guess that means we are definitely trying to move up

[cow]

https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/13...80772?s=20

I guess that means we are definitely trying to move up

How are we going to move up far enough for Hal?

[LukaDrive]

Wiggins+2nd pick for maxi+seth+delon+18+31

Interesting idea. 

I just have no sense of the real value of the #2 pick this year, I am just 100% certain it is the cheapest a #2 pick will basically EVER be. But to take on Wiggins AND give up 4 good assets the Mavs better LOVE who is there at #2.


As far as trade up spots I think based on rumors and reports there are 4 spots:

#2 (GSW)
#6 (ATL)
#10 (PHX)
#14 (BOS

Those are all available for the right price it seems. So IF the Mavs trade up I think that is where you are looking.

---

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2020/10/wolv...-pick.html

Possibly an overpay but that could be easily adjusted by subtracting a pick. If I'm putting myself into GSW, ATL, PHX, BOS shoes then GSW would be the most intrigued by what we have to offer. They got their superstar starters but they are incredibly weak elsewhere. Maxi, seth, and delon can fill that void easily and at a team friendly price. PHX would be a maybe if they value Maxi as much as we do, but that would also depend on if the star rookie player we want is at #10 which I do not think will be.

[cjeter24]

P.S. If the Mavs wanted to create space to sign Hayward outright I am almost 100% certain they could do it.

Good point. 

Let's assume the rumors are right and the cap will be set at $109mm. Dallas currently has $110mm in salaries. So basically every dollar they're able to trade away for air is a dollar they can offer to a free agent.

If I'm Dallas, I'd have two goals in this situation: 

1. Do NOT trade players who are free agents in '21 (because we need them to expire to create cap space). 
2. Try to maximize their value while not taking any salary back. The best way to do this is to get picks. But a S&T for another player also works.

The options that meet criteria #1 are Powell (11), Wright (9), Maxi(8.25), Curry(7.8),  and DFS(4). They total about $40mm in salary next year. Dallas obviously wouldn't trade all of them, but they also probably wouldn't have to in order to clear plenty of space to sign a FA like Hayward.

The teams I'd look at for criteria #2 are ones with lots of cap space who might be willing to deal their higher pick for our 2 picks plus a few good players. Let's say Atlanta would trade #6 for 18, 31, Wright, and Maxi. That's a lot of value for one pick that they don't seem too enthused about keeping anyway. Dallas gets a lottery pick, clears enough cap space to sign a guy like Hayward for about $16mm and their '21 cap space is still untouched (pending whatever small salary difference there is between 6 and 18+31).

Now maybe that's not enough money for Hayward to opt out, but you get the idea. Tweak away. But the moral of the story is that I do think there could be ways to clear space for him without depending on a S&T to get it done. And BTW, the same approach could apply to Gallo. Honestly, locking up a scoring wing who is a clear starter while preserving cap space in '21 would be a huge win this offseason, IMO. Even if it takes trading off some of the bench depth to do it.

I think that's a little light for the Mavs to move up all the way to 6 tho. The idea of having someone absorb our salary while moving up also would work with Detroit at 7 and PHX at 10. 

PHX at 10 makes the most sense. 
They have to really want the player to eat the salary otherwise its a net negative for them. They have 16 mill of cap space and likely won't keep any cap holds and could have the minimum 12 on roster where its a clean 16 mill. 

I think Curry would be the most likely guy they would really want. Justin Jackson at 5 mill I believe could be strong armed clearing up about 13 mill in cap space. If you could strong arm them into taking Wright instead (you may need to take back a really small contract) than you are a Jackson expiring dump on someone away from having about 20 mill in cap space. Jackson at only 5 mill I think would be movable with a small asset (future seconds?) and worst case Brunson.

You get your guy at 10 and then sign your free agent at 20mill per. You of course could clear up to about 29 mill of space having Kleber sent away. But I think it's really hard to find any team that has the money to take on even a smallish contract like that without sending something in return or wanting assets which you don't have. It's also not expiring so I think it's tougher than you think to just dump for this summer only. Not meant to slight Kleber in any way. In a non salary dump deal I think he's a clear positive. 

Interestingly enough by my calculations at a flat cap over the next few years I had the Mavs able to keep a max slot for 2021 and have around 20 mill in available cap space to add onto their future cap if they could find a way to trade Curry/Kleber, Wright and Powell. So you would be a Powell salary dump away next summer to having that max slot. 

Is 20 mill enough to sign Gallo? Maybe. What about Van Fleet? Bogdan surely gets matched right? The biggest issue to the plan is finding someone worthy of a big contract and to be here long term. 

Perhaps that is via trade. Maybe orlando wants to dump AG. The facilitator in a big deal trade could work. Gary Harris, Leveret, Bledsoe, Schroder all fit into that salary hole you make (you could just send out Jackson in that deal instead of dumping beforehand. All have been kicked around as possibly being available in a deal.

[LukaDrive]

https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/13...80772?s=20

I guess that means we are definitely trying to move up

How are we going to move up far enough for Hal?

If we think hal,killian,wise etc. is our star we need the #2 or #6. I posted a trade for GSW earlier Wig/2nd pick for Maxi/Seth/Delon/18/31. In normal drafts that might not be enough but, I think they fit perfectly for GSW needs for them to seriously consider it and we would have to eat wigs contract. Maybe Luka can work his magic and he would work out with us and if we really wanted to get rid of him, his stats would be bloated enough to get rid of him without giving up anything next season.

#2 pick/THJ
Wigs
Luka
#2/DFS
KP

sexy lineup

[cow]

Losing Maxi and Curry while adding Wiggins.

https://media.giphy.com/media/3FBwwRCNTSa52/giphy.gif

We have done a lot o business with GSW though.

[LukaDrive]

Losing Maxi and Curry while adding Wiggins.

https://media.giphy.com/media/3FBwwRCNTSa52/giphy.gif

We have done a lot o business with GSW though.

Luka will turn wiggins into kawhi just you wait!

[aguiar95]

https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/13...1646880772

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/13...1646880772

1) The Mavs cannot hide the fact they are trying to move up in the draft. You cannot have all those conversations and not have it leak through the OTHER teams.

2) However, what the Mavs CAN control is who they meet with and who they leak that they meet with. 

My take on this:

Fish, as always, is a mouthpiece for Donnie and DAL. They are leaking this info.

1) It is certainly TRUE info, they will meet with these guys.

2) It affirms they are trying to move up.

3) I would bet they LIKE Hal and Bey, BUT I bet neither are THE target. I think the real target won't have any connection to the Mavs until maybe the 11th hour. 


I still think this is all about Killian Hayes.

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P.S. I think these guys affirm the Mavs believe they can at least get to #10...Hal making me think they can get to #6 (which is where you might need to get to land Killian).

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Wig/2nd pick

This definitely fulfills the notion of taking on bad money for a star.....

[DanSchwartzgan]

https://twitter.com/fishsports/status/13...1646880772

1) The Mavs cannot hide the fact they are trying to move up in the draft. You cannot have all those conversations and not have it leak through the OTHER teams.

2) However, what the Mavs CAN control is who they meet with and who they leak that they meet with. 

My take on this:

Fish, as always, is a mouthpiece for Donnie and DAL. They are leaking this info.

1) It is certainly TRUE info, they will meet with these guys.

2) It affirms they are trying to move up.

3) I would bet they LIKE Hal and Bey, BUT I bet neither are THE target. I think the real target won't have any connection to the Mavs until maybe the 11th hour. 


I still think this is all about Killian Hayes.

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P.S. I think these guys affirm the Mavs believe they can at least get to #10...Hal making me think they can get to #6 (which is where you might need to get to land Killian).

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Bill Simmons podcast with Kevin O'Connor postulated Phoenix might want to draft an older PG who could take over for Rubio when he expires but is mature enough to contribute this season.  That kind of guy would be available still at 18.  Maybe the way to get to 10 is Maxi/18 for Oubre/10.  Fill in other things as you wish, but Maxi is cost controlled and a good fit next to Ayton.  Both the player swap and the pick swap saves Phoenix money.  If they decide to go into the FA market, they would have a decent amount of cash above the MLE if they move on from Baynes and Saric.  Maxi helps them move on from those guys and be the best team with room in free agency.

I'm not an Oubre fan, though much like THJ I could see an uptick in performance here.  But, this isn't about him.  In fact, it might be about getting the guy who takes over for him (or Maxi) a year from now at #10.  It also adds to flexibility to our 2021 cap as Oubre is expiring.

[michaeltex]

to clear plenty of space to sign a FA like Hayward.

And its not just Hayward.... 

• Jerami Grant
  
• OPJ
  
• Bogdanovic 
  
• Gallo
  

Any free agent or guy with a player option, the Mavs could work with and say "opt out we are offering you this much."

Mavs can be players THIS offseason AND next if they want.

I don't know all the dates, but will DAL be able to talk to these guys before they make the opt in/opt out decision? I think they used to have to make it before FA started so everyone knows who is approachable and who isn't.

I see rumors where it's already happening, but that's been with players who are known FAs, not ones with options on the table.

[aguiar95]

I still think this is all about Killian Hayes.

---

P.S. I think these guys affirm the Mavs believe they can at least get to #10...Hal making me think they can get to #6 (which is where you might need to get to land Killian).

---

Bill Simmons podcast with Kevin O'Connor postulated Phoenix might want to draft an older PG who could take over for Rubio when he expires but is mature enough to contribute this season.  That kind of guy would be available still at 18.  Maybe the way to get to 10 is Maxi/18 for Oubre/10.  Fill in other things as you wish, but Maxi is cost controlled and a good fit next to Ayton.  Both the player swap and the pick swap saves Phoenix money.  If they decide to go into the FA market, they would have a decent amount of cash above the MLE if they move on from Baynes and Saric.  Maxi helps them move on from those guys and be the best team with room in free agency.

I'm not an Oubre fan, though much like THJ I could see an uptick in performance here.  But, this isn't about him.  In fact, it might be about getting the guy who takes over for him (or Maxi) a year from now at #10.  It also adds to flexibility to our 2021 cap as Oubre is expiring.

I'm not sure PHO are that down on Oubre. 10 for Maxi/18 seems more realistic. But it puts a lot of pressure on the rookie, since we would be trading one of the fan favorites on the team and we probably get worse on the short-term.

If the Mavs find a way to draft Hayes, I'm sorry Luka & KP, but I'll have a clear favorite guy on the roster. Not sure how he fits in the SL if he doesn't improve his off-ball impact. Vassell should be #1 on their list if they want to add a future starter that fits better with our core, but I love Hayes.

[SleepingHero]

If the Mavs like Killian there is a decent shot he is there at #6.

I think Atlanta wants an established player. I don't think Dallas has anything interesting for them that we would want to give.

Dwight Powell is a pretty established player. 

[fifteenth]

Just read the last 4 or 5 pages. Man, great discussion! You guys are awesome!