Bucks game got folks' attention

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

The area Powell improved most this season imho is the short roll. The role critical in the system with Luka, because he gets doubled so much. That pass to the short roll is critical - the player should be able to be an instant threat. Either to shoot, drive or pass to the open man. Powell was not so good in this role at the start of the season, but has improved a lot. He can really pass it well. Maxi is still bad, as he only looks for a pass and defenders know that by now. 

Mike Tobey from Olympics was actually the best guy in this position I saw next to Luka. Real threat when he got the ball. Sure most of competition was lower level, but Luka and him torched Gobert in semifinals - he scored 23 points against France. 

As some has previously said, it was also always a mistery to me too, why KP didn't accept this role. He should really shine as he has the shot, the drive or the pass. But I agree, he must have had other ideas. 

So, which center can be better offensively while playing same or better level of defense (I always thought Powell is a great team defender)? 

Wood is a guy that is very intriguing on the offensive side for me. He can shoot and is great in PnR. Can he get his head straight? Can he be successful on a winning team? I didn't see him enough to be able to judge his defense. These are the questions I don't have the answer.

I think Holmes would be an improvement on both sides. He is not a shooter so perhaps not ideal, but he has a killing floater. 

Turner is an improvement defensively, but I am not so sure about offense. What can he do as a short roll?

Gobert is certainly better defender and better in PnR. He is not a great passer though, but mostly he is imho way overpaid and would cost too much I would be willing to pay.

This is a really great post.  I've said it on this board before but our inability to make the correct play out of the short roll was the reason we lost to the Clippers (I would actually argue Maxi/DFS/Hardaway were the main victims last year but that was also because Powell wasn't on the floor in late game situations during that series).  I'm actually curious if DFS gets thrown into that role again if we end up going ultra small at times during the playoffs.  He has added a lot of game putting the ball on the floor this year and I think would do much better when asked to handle those 4 on 3 situations.

[mvossman]

Minor pushback…I think stats do answer this.  It just depends which question you are asking.  If you are saying he’s never scored like this (meaning in terms of measuring points scored on a per minute basis), then he has actually scored like this before.  If you are saying he’s never scored like this (meaning as easily and efficiently), then TS% and to a lesser extent O-Rating say you are right about that.  

When you said “his best year”, I took it to mean across the entire spectrum of what he contributes.  18/19 is amazingly similar to 21-22 (and better by very small degrees in most measurements).  It is even better in some measurements than post all-star break Powell.  I think Killer is right that we just didn’t appreciate it as much when it happened on a less successful team. 

I’m not a Powell defender because I think he’s a top flight starting center.  I’m a Powell defender because so many people here have missed the analysis on him for such a long time.  BTW, be prepared for disappointment those of you who think he will be signing for less than the MLE.  I find the discussion about adding to the future center rotation that has been going on to be fascinating.  

Gobert?  A lesser Gobert (like Capella or Turner)?  Another small/mobile center who is good at the PnR like Powell?  A cheap big thug who is nothing like Powell to eat up some minutes against bigger bodies?  A 3&D center (who actually hits 3’s) to replace/supplement Maxi?  I have no problem with Powell moving to the bench if a new starter pushes him there.  I’ve always thought it much more likely he stays next season in some capacity.  That probably means Maxi either goes or moves to backup PF behind DFS (a position he would compete with Bertans for).  I do think it would be a mistake to try to roll with what we have at this position past the current season, but I can make a good argument for just about any of those possibilities.  Its not like we were all pinning for Bullock prior to his signing, so the odd are none of us has this exactly nailed at this point.

Good stuff.  I think the one argument you could make in favor of this season's Powell is that he is doing this as a starter instead of 2019 when he was mostly terrorizing opposing benches.  

I definitely fall into the camp of folks thinking Powell is better suited as a 20 minute a game key rotational bench player (a la 2019), but that kind of player makes the MLE.  Honestly as I look over the roster, Bertans is the only truly overpriced player on the team (other than the silly Burke, Boban, Brown contracts that should be mins).  Even THJ is a reasonably priced contract (once he gets healthy), he just does not really fit.

[SleepingHero]

BTW, be prepared for disappointment those of you who think he will be signing for less than the MLE.  I find the discussion about adding to the future center rotation that has been going on to be fascinating.  

An aside, are you really confident in him getting paid 10+mil again? 

He'll be 31 with a previous achilles tear playing probably the least valued position in the game today (in that you're either a star getting 20+mil or you're getting vet min). You can see this plain as day if you go to Spotrac and sort by contracts for centers. 10th highest paid center in the league is Myles Turner (20 mil next season). 11th-15th spots the median yearly value is 15 mil (with the guys being Capela, Adams, JV, Brook Lopez and WCJr). 

With 16-20, we're in MLE territory with Timelord, Nurkic and Holmes (median yearly value ~12mil) 

All of these guys save Lopez are younger and better than Powell right now, with no serious injury history. 

Just off of current production, age and future production I'd put Powell's next contract in the 3 years 24-26mil range (8-8.5 mil a year and probably descending as a trade chip). Right in line with guys like Nerlens Noel, Poeltl, and Zubac. Even then you can argue that's an overpay.

[DanSchwartzgan]

An aside, are you really confident in him getting paid 10+mil again? 

He'll be 31 with a previous achilles tear playing probably the least valued position in the game today (in that you're either a star getting 20+mil or you're getting vet min). You can see this plain as day if you go to Spotrac and sort by contracts for centers. 10th highest paid center in the league is Myles Turner (20 mil next season). 11th-15th spots the median yearly value is 15 mil (with the guys being Capela, Adams, JV, Brook Lopez and WCJr). 

With 16-20, we're in MLE territory with Timelord, Nurkic and Holmes (median yearly value ~12mil) 

All of these guys save Lopez are younger and better than Powell right now, with no serious injury history. 

Just off of current production, age and future production I'd put Powell's next contract in the 3 years 24-26mil range (8-8.5 mil a year and probably descending as a trade chip). Right in line with guys like Nerlens Noel, Poeltl, and Zubac. Even then you can argue that's an overpay.

Yes I do.  If he were extension eligible, I'd guarantee it, but a year is a long time to wait for the answer and a lot can change between now and then.

Spotrac also shows that the average center actually makes more than the average SF or SG.  So, I'm not sure about this "centers don't get paid" narrative.  We just spent half a page discussing how Powell is having his best year as a pro.  He's the starting center for one of the best teams in the league and a vital running partner for the star of said team.  I can't conceive of why he would take a pay cut at all frankly.

There are issues with some of your comparables.  Noel isn't a starter and Poeltl and Zubac will get paid soon.  Their last contracts were held down by restricted free agency.  If you focus on more recent signings of UFA's, 33 year old Horford got four years at a $27mm average in 19.  31 year old Brook Lopez got four years at a $13mm average in 19.  Non-starting 31 year old Ibaka got two years at a $9.5mm average in 20.  Non-starting 29 year old Theis got four years at an average of $8.9mm in 21 and non-starting 29 year old Favors got three years at a $9.7mm average in 20.  Non-starting 27 year old Noel got three years at a $9.2mm average in 21.  Holmes got an $11.4mm average for four years in 21.   

Looking at that list, if Powell were free right now, he'd get more than any of Ibaka, Theis, Favors and Noel.  Holmes is probably the best comp and I'd agree Powell wouldn't get any more than Lopez.  The injury is a non-factor as he's recovered fully and playing as well as he ever has.  Age isn't typically an issue for dollars as we see all of the time.  The way teams deal with age is years.

---

Good stuff.  I think the one argument you could make in favor of this season's Powell is that he is doing this as a starter instead of 2019 when he was mostly terrorizing opposing benches.  

 Very reasonable IMHO.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The area Powell improved most this season imho is the short roll. The role critical in the system with Luka, because he gets doubled so much. That pass to the short roll is critical - the player should be able to be an instant threat. Either to shoot, drive or pass to the open man. Powell was not so good in this role at the start of the season, but has improved a lot. He can really pass it well.  

So, which center can be better offensively while playing same or better level of defense (I always thought Powell is a great team defender)? 



 
I think Holmes would be an improvement on both sides. He is not a shooter so perhaps not ideal, but he has a killing floater. 

 

Completely agree.  He's really good at it and that push shot is part of why I like Holmes.  I'm not kicking Gobert, Turner or Capela out of bed for eating crackers.  I'm dubious about Wood.  We sent out the exact salary needed and essentially the same assets used to match/get Wood in a deal that included Detroit and he didn't end up here.  That tells me we either didn't want him or he didn't want us.  Yes, we've had a regime change and who knows what is still valid and what isn't.  It has always made me scratch my head that we could have easily dealt for him that summer and didn't for some reason.

[SleepingHero]

There are issues with some of your comparables.  Noel isn't a starter and Poeltl and Zubac will get paid soon.  Their last contracts were held down by restricted free agency.  If you focus on more recent signings of UFA's, 33 year old Horford got four years at a $27mm average in 19.  31 year old Brook Lopez got four years at a $13mm average in 19.  Non-starting 31 year old Ibaka got two years at a $9.5mm average in 20.  Non-starting 29 year old Theis got four years at an average of $8.9mm in 21 and non-starting 29 year old Favors got three years at a $9.7mm average in 20.  Non-starting 27 year old Noel got three years at a $9.2mm average in 21.  Holmes got an $11.4mm average for four years in 21.   

Looking at that list, if Powell were free right now, he'd get more than any of Ibaka, Theis, Favors and Noel.  Holmes is probably the best comp and I'd agree Powell wouldn't get any more than Lopez.  The injury is a non-factor as he's recovered fully and playing as well as he ever has.  Age isn't typically an issue for dollars as we see all of the time.  The way teams deal with age is years.

Interesting. I mean the centers don't get paid narrative namely stems from that good teams don't overpay for centers unless they're all-stars. Holmes is a perfect recent example of that. But to be fair that philosophy also extends to every position, as overpaying anywhere is a mistake. In any case it doesn't really matter. 

The examples you list either are special cases or objective examples of bad contracts, which should further drive home the point that Powell either won't (or SHOULDN'T) be getting a raise next contract. 

Noel WAS starting for the Knicks the season he got his contract (41 starts in 64 games, 24mpg) and proved to be a valuable piece helping lead the Knicks to a 4th seed with a stifling interior presence.
Poeltl, I agree was hindered by RFA, but he also didn't have any buzz. His lack of market led him to taking a small prove it deal, thus comparing him in this situation to Powell is out of place. 
Zubac is a wait and see. So far his play has been enough to get a raise in that next tier of 12+mil, but a lot can happen in a year (injuries etc.) so I'm reserving judgment. And that's before even mentioning that Zubac is 6 years younger than Powell. 

Now to the special cases:

Horford's contract was seen as a complete overpay at the time and is still considered one of the worst contracts in the league (with it's main value coming from it's non-guarantee in its last year). Philly had to pay OKC to ship him off. We shouldn't be propping up the train of thought that led Philly to giving Horford that contract  if we want to seriously compete for a championship. 

Lopez was given an extension namely because MIL had no reason to let him walk. Either they lose him for nothing or they keep their championship core so it's a special case scenario. If the Mavs were to win the championship in the next two years I wouldn't be shocked (nor that mad because it means he was doing something right) if Powell got extended at 10+mil. 

Ibaka 2 years ago was a better player than Powell has ever been, and the contract he signed at that point was seen as a discount to ring chase as he signed it shortly after Kawhi signed. Their situations aren't perfect comparisons in any case, as Ibaka has largely been injury bitten after turning 30 and should make us wary committing long term money to a non all-star big post 30 years old. 

Theis is a great comparison. However, his average value of 8.9 mil is almost right on the money to my suggestion of 8-8.5 mil a year for Powell. Theis also benefits from being 2 years younger than Powell and being 28 at the time of signing his contract, versus the 32 years old Powell will be next year. 

Looking at that list, if Powell were free right now, he'd get more than any of Ibaka, Theis, Favors and Noel.  Holmes is probably the best comp and I'd agree Powell wouldn't get any more than Lopez.  The injury is a non-factor as he's recovered fully and playing as well as he ever has.  Age isn't typically an issue for dollars as we see all of the time.  The way teams deal with age is years.

If you're Powell and this is likely your last long term contract, do you think it's more likely he'd accept 2 years at 20 mil or 3 years at 24 mil? I see no benefit at the shorter contract other than him not wanting to take a step back on the money-per-year. 

But hey, at the end of writing this wall of text I'm reminded that the Mavs always bid against themselves. Which means you're probably right and Powell is about to be handed a 4 year 40 mil contract next year at age 32.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If you're Powell and this is likely your last long term contract, do you think it's more likely he'd accept 2 years at 20 mil or 3 years at 24 mil? I see no benefit at the shorter contract other than him not wanting to take a step back on the money-per-year. 

But hey, at the end of writing this wall of text I'm reminded that the Mavs always bid against themselves. Which means you're probably right and Powell is about to be handed a 4 year 40 mil contract next year at age 32.

Actually, you'd take 3/30 and give the team a TO for the third year in exchange for a partial guarantee (like they gave Reggie).  That way if you are cut after two years your average salary is effectively bumped up as you spread the partial guarantee over the two years you played.

If we are putting words in my mouth, let's get them right.  I didn't say anything about four years.  In fact, I specifically said years is more likely the give up for Powell vs. dollars.  It wouldn't surprise me if Powell got three but with the third either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.

[omahen]

Actually, you'd take 3/30 and give the team a TO for the third year in exchange for a partial guarantee (like they gave Reggie).  That way if you are cut after two years your average salary is effectively bumped up as you spread the partial guarantee over the two years you played.

If we are putting words in my mouth, let's get them right.  I didn't say anything about four years.  In fact, I specifically said years is more likely the give up for Powell vs. dollars.  It wouldn't surprise me if Powell got three but with the third either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.

I think the salary and long term future has to do a lot with his role here. If Powell is the starting center to stay, than this is a realistic outcome. However, things might change if Mavs are looking for an upgrade at center.

Powell can only play the center position. So, if they look for an upgrade and this guy too can only play the center position (for example Holmes), than Powell at 10 mil per year becomes expensive as one would expect that the upgrade would play at least 30 minutes per game. If Mavs go after Gobert, they would have hugely overpriced back-up in Powell at 10 mil. Not because Powell is not worth 10 mil, but because of his role.

Things are easier if the upgrade can play both C and PF. This way he can share some floor time with Powell. Maxi might become a bit unnecessary (too expensive for his role) in this case.

I agree Powell can be worth 10 mil per year (although I am not 100 % sure he will be able to get that), but it might be some other team paying him that.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think the salary and long term future has to do a lot with his role here. If Powell is the starting center to stay, than this is a realistic outcome. However, things might change if Mavs are looking for an upgrade at center.

Powell can only play the center position. So, if they look for an upgrade and this guy too can only play the center position (for example Holmes), than Powell at 10 mil per year becomes expensive as one would expect that the upgrade would play at least 30 minutes per game.  

Agreed.  This was the reason behind my opening line in the first post of the salary discussion with SH.  A lot can change in a year.  I'd be much more confident if Powell was a FA or extension eligible this summer.

[F Gump]

Yes I do.  If he were extension eligible....

Interesting discussion about Powell's value, but not so sure about the idea that things may change before it's decision time -- isn't he extension eligible on July 1 this summer?

[Hogmelon]

Interesting discussion about Powell's value ...

Powell, Powell, Powell ...

Plays hard, plays smart.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3zynWeHM_E

[SleepingHero]

If we are putting words in my mouth, let's get them right.  I didn't say anything about four years.  In fact, I specifically said years is more likely the give up for Powell vs. dollars.  It wouldn't surprise me if Powell got three but with the third either non-guaranteed or partially guaranteed.

I wasn't trying to put words in your mouth. Last sentence was supposed to bring some levity to the discussion as it's so ridiculous on the face of it but you never know with the Mavs. 

I agree a 3 year deal with a partial/non guarantee in the last year is a realistic option and perhaps even a solid deal for Powell. If anything the final year non-guaranteed year is a solid trade chip.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Interesting discussion about Powell's value, but not so sure about the idea that things may change before it's decision time -- isn't he extension eligible on July 1 this summer?

Thank you.  Was too busy/lazy to look and couldn’t remember if 3 year deals were eligible or not.  So, now we have a third element to discuss…how much, how long and when to do it.

[Jommybone]

Ultimate team guy. I’d guess a team-friendly price and structure over as many years as the rules allow. I know that’s not what Dan thinks, and he knows way more about this than me. But I’m suspicious you all are underestimating the love affair between great Mavs kindsa guys and management. Dwight may eventually be part of the front office here.

[Chicagojk]

My ideal vision for this team is still a top tier PF type.  A guy who can play on the perimeter but also play bigger if needed.    I am not a huge Grant fan, but lets use him as an example.   BTW, I also wasn't a Dinwiddie fan so take my thoughts with a grain of salt.   

Could you find a player like Grant, put Bullock on the bench and then find a low cost center in the draft/FA?

If you could have a nine man rotation where your bench was Dinwiddie, Bullock, Green and low cost Center.   That is not bad.  The key is identifying that right player though via trade.  Maybe you can find a role for Bertans in the regular season.  We would probably be minus picks but we would have solid assets though if another move had to be made.  Would need to be creative though if we traded two future picks.  

Luka
Brunson
DFS
TBD
Powell

Bench
Dinwiddie
Bullock
Green
TBD Center

[Smitty]

My ideal vision for this team is still a top tier PF type.  A guy who can play on the perimeter but also play bigger if needed.    I am not a huge Grant fan, but lets use him as an example.   BTW, I also wasn't a Dinwiddie fan so take my thoughts with a grain of salt.   

Could you find a player like Grant, put Bullock on the bench and then find a low cost center in the draft/FA?

If you could have a nine man rotation where your bench was Dinwiddie, Bullock, Green and low cost Center.   That is not bad.  The key is identifying that right player though via trade.  Maybe you can find a role for Bertans in the regular season.  We would probably be minus picks but we would have solid assets though if another move had to be made.  Would need to be creative though if we traded two future picks.  

Luka
Brunson
DFS
TBD
Powell

Bench
Dinwiddie
Bullock
Green
TBD Center

I still like PJ Washington as a young Kleber. I think he would fit well here and also the age timeline.

[ItsGoTime]

FWIW, Sportrac has Powell ranked 42 out of all centers in terms of contract value for this season. I know, I know, intangibles and team guy and we don't appreciate what he brings to the table and all, just adding someone else's statistical approach to the table.

[ReunionMav]

Ultimate team guy. I’d guess a team-friendly price and structure over as many years as the rules allow. I know that’s not what Dan thinks, and he knows way more about this than me. But I’m suspicious you all are underestimating the love affair between great Mavs kindsa guys and management. Dwight may eventually be part of the front office here.

I totally agree Powell is headed for the Mavs front office. I have said this a few times over the last couple of years. I also noticed some time ago that Powell was always better than some on here gave him credit for. We get too distracted by what he is not. We always gave him credit for rim running. Now we can add excellent pick and role partner for Luka and good perimeter big man defender now that we have solid wing defenders to go with him. I really enjoyed this discussion.