IZTOK DIAGNOSES DECLINE OF MAVS OFFENSE

[mavsluvr]

Along this line of questioning, exec shoe salesmen deal with the very same agents GM’s deal with do they not? Is that not at least enough a part of the job to be respected and given a chance?

I think there is indeed some overlap in terms of the people a shoe exec and a GM deal with. However, it's not in the same capacity. A shoe exec dealing with an agent is trying to convince the agent that the shoe company can put more money into the player's pockets than other shoe companies. A GM dealing with an agent is playing a different role. 

Ordinarily, I would say that the fact that Nico has the job means he is being given a chance. And I think he is, as far as Cuban is willing to relinquish authority to him. If there are pieces of the job that Cubes doesn't want Nico to do, or doesn't want him to have primary authority over, I think he'll have to earn the chance, or maybe not even have a chance to earn it. 

I don't know why any other GM or agent would respect Nico's skills at roster construction. He has stated himself that he is not familiar with it. He knows a lot of the relevant people, but that doesn't mean they consider him a great builder of rosters. I assume that he is a good person, and that people who know him respect him for that.

[Mavs2021]

DP needs to get Kemba'd. Mavs offense is better than the Warriors when he is off the floor. And worse than Rockets when he plays. Even 10-20 minutes is too much at this point. While i think Luka was in terrible shape to start the season, lots of Luka's +/- mess is pairing him with Powell.

The two biggest roster challenges:

Luka + THJ pairing isn't working on defense -> WORST defense in the league when they share the floor
Powell isn't working at all. Give me Eugene at this point (and see if he can give you extra spacing), Kleber or go small with DFS/Bullock at the 4.


While individual net rating isn't a good stat, DP managed a negative net rating in the last 3 games. Every other player on the roster was positive. We are talking about 2 blowout wins and a close OT loss.

Now to Dallas, Texas....

Kidd: So can we not play Powell anymore?
Cuban: I won the Rondo trade!
Kidd: Sooooo, that´s a....

[ClutchDirk]

https://media.giphy.com/media/uTYgUfZlJv.../giphy.gif

[fifteenth]

The more relevant question might be: should the above hypothetical situation come true and you do spend time as CEO in your industry, does that experience qualify you to run a pro basketball team? I would say "probably" in some ways, but "lol, no" in many others. 

I think that's what the moniker "shoe salesman" is trying to convey in a comedic way.

There are reasons why Nico's experience does apply to working in the NBA. I am not,  in my job, responsible for judging and building relationships with NBA talent or building relationships with adjents or team execs.

---

And "shoe salesman" could be comedic, or it could be shorthand for "not qualified." Is Nico, in fact,  not qualified?

[mavsluvr]

There are reasons why Nico's experience does apply to working in the NBA. I am not,  in my job, responsible for judging and building relationships with NBA talent or building relationships with adjents or team execs.

---

And "shoe salesman" could be comedic, or it could be shorthand for "not qualified." Is Nico, in fact,  not qualified?

I don't see how someone could regard him as qualified in the usual sense of the word -- having a successful track record as a GM, or maybe an assistant GM, at another NBA franchise. Or even having substantial experience working in the front office of another NBA franchise, or possibly even as a successful agent. 

Say I am an executive at a company that sells medical equipment to physicians. I know the physicians, the practice managers, I'm familiar with each of their medical equipment needs, and their preferences in that regard, and I have a lot of product knowledge. Everyone respects and likes me. That's great. But it doesn't mean I'm qualified to start practicing medicine. To be qualified usually requires training/experience in the actual job or something very similar -- not just doing business in a related field.  

I think Nico has certain experience and qualities that may indicate promise that he could become a qualified GM in time -- maybe even a great one. He might be able to hit the ground running on some aspects of the job now. But I don't know how anyone would think he is there at this point. It's a job he's never done before. In the summer, he came out and admitted that there were many areas of the job with which he was unfamiliar. I expect that Cuban wasn't too worried about it, possibly because that particular hire was more about establishing a cultural reset than in-house training of an expert on roster construction and other technical aspects of the position. And maybe he is able to accomplish that task -- I hope so.

And if culture-setting and organizational management are really his jobs, with the broader titles being largely window dressing, then maybe he is pretty close to qualified now. Could be.

[ClutchDirk]

Tin foil hat theory of mine since last offseason...Nico and Kidd were preferred by an NBA Star who might have demanded a trade...

[WildArkieBoy]

Nico would absolutely know this:  
Average shoe size of NBA player:  14.81

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/SpyrosVel/status/147...NtT-SzJieQ&s=19

[ClutchDirk]

https://twitter.com/kenny_817/status/147...dVeB_5EEQA&s=19

[Kammrath]

I have had this thought at times this season, and have been too filled with terror to allow myself to articulate it on this forum.

Can you help me out with this?

What makes you think the Mavs are possibly preparing to choose KP over Luka? Do you suspect some of the issues with Luka are so deep and profound (things we would have no way of knowing) that the Mavs want to sell high before the rest of the league realizes he has already reached his ceiling?

[BackToSquareOne]

If, OTOH, they are trying to choose between going all-in on either KP or Luka, I would find the choice of KP unfathomable, but it might be where they are heading.

Team-KP given the relative value of the assets the Mavs could get for Luka.

I do find it weird that everyone wants to jump to jettisoning the core given it's 75% not proven. However, feel free to propose random things that make you feel better.

[Branduil]

Can you help me out with this?

What makes you think the Mavs are possibly preparing to choose KP over Luka? Do you suspect some of the issues with Luka are so deep and profound (things we would have no way of knowing) that the Mavs want to sell high before the rest of the league realizes he has already reached his ceiling?

Option C: The Mavs are run by an egomaniacal idiot who might triple down and make a franchise-destroying mistake out of pride.

[fifteenth]

I don't see how someone could regard him as qualified in the usual sense of the word -- having a successful track record as a GM, or maybe an assistant GM, at another NBA franchise. Or even having substantial experience working in the front office of another NBA franchise, or possibly even as a successful agent. 

Say I am an executive at a company that sells medical equipment to physicians. I know the physicians, the practice managers, I'm familiar with each of their medical equipment needs, and their preferences in that regard, and I have a lot of product knowledge. Everyone respects and likes me. That's great. But it doesn't mean I'm qualified to start practicing medicine. To be qualified usually requires training/experience in the actual job or something very similar -- not just doing business in a related field.  

I think Nico has certain experience and qualities that may indicate promise that he could become a qualified GM in time -- maybe even a great one. He might be able to hit the ground running on some aspects of the job now. But I don't know how anyone would think he is there at this point. It's a job he's never done before. In the summer, he came out and admitted that there were many areas of the job with which he was unfamiliar. I expect that Cuban wasn't too worried about it, possibly because that particular hire was more about establishing a cultural reset than in-house training of an expert on roster construction and other technical aspects of the position. And maybe he is able to accomplish that task -- I hope so.

And if culture-setting and organizational management are really his jobs, with the broader titles being largely window dressing, then maybe he is pretty close to qualified now. Could be.

I don't think of qualification as a 0% or 100% proposition. I haven't tried to make an argument that Nico is 100% qualified. I doubt you think he's 0% qualified.

I pointed out that he was a CEO/GM level professional who has experience judging and recruiting NBA talent and building great relationships with NBA players and execs. That seems like at least a jumping off point to me. Other NBA teams have shown interest in Nico before. I see enough there that I like, that makes me want to withhold judgement and assumption, and see what actually happens. 

You compared him to someone who hasn't gone to school to be a doctor attempting to be a doctor. I get your point, but think it's over the top. Don't you? 

I would predict failure for the medical equipment exec that transferred to the operating room. I'd call the board or the police and tell patients to stay away.

For a standout CEO type with Nico's reported chops whose prior success depended upon judging NBA talent and building great NBA relationships,  I'd give him more of a chance to succeed than the medical equipment exec in the operating room. 

The next page in your story is that, "because of this shoe salesman's experience level, of course Cuban is still really the GM and Nico's title is just window dressing."

My response is "maybe, but maybe not." I at least think enough of what Nico brings to the table, of his "experience", to wait and see and not assume that he's just "staff manager" with a glorified title. 

I'll give him a chance. And I'm gonna think of him as the GM until I see evidence, other than assumption,  that he's the staff manager with a grand title for window dressing.

[hakeemfaan]

Fif. Reading about Nico previously, it doesn’t seem like he ever at any point worked on identifying raw talent that others missed. It seems that he was fortunate to be placed in working with elite stars who were already on everyone’s radar. No doubt he did a dang good job at that, but that is not the same as talent evaluation. In fact a case could be made about them whiffing on Steph as one of the true difficult evaluations they had to make, and failed. 

The GM job is a different beast. IMO if we resign ourselves to the fact that no superstar FA is going to automatically choose Dallas, it will be the first step towards getting out of the funk this franchise has been under since they won the title. Hit doubles and then try for a bases clearing double. Stack chips than be infatuated with the home run. Know when to get out of bad contracts and build assets in terms of picks. 

Being on speed dial with elite stars is IMO not going to be of much help for Nico here. I would have preferred someone who had a front office experience in identifying talent and working deep in the weeds. Either way we would not be high on any elite superstar’s list but at least we would have someone who had some experience in the more realistic way the Mavs can get back to contention. 

I do wish Nico the best but to put in Dirk’s words, we are depending upon hope and prayer for someone to do something we have no idea if he is good at or not.

[mavsluvr]

I don't think of qualification as a 0% or 100% proposition. I haven't tried to make an argument that Nico is 100% qualified. I doubt you think he's 0% qualified.

Okay, that's a way to look at it. I tend to think of people as qualified or not. Like, when I hire people, I don't usually even look at people who might be "partially qualified." To me, that says, "not qualified." But I'll try to adjust to your perspective. In my lexicon, a person who is "qualified" might still need job-specific training, and entry-level people may not have experience (which would be reflected in their salaries), but they should be in a position quickly to perform the basic job duties without intense supervision.

Maybe in this case, I would frame the question as, "Is Nico capable of performing all material aspects of his job without supervision?" Maybe you would phrase it as, "Is Nico capable of learning to perform his job without supervision?" Something like that, anyway. 

I pointed out that he was a CEO/GM level professional who has experience judging and recruiting NBA talent and building great relationships with NBA players and execs.

Do we think he has experience judging NBA talent? One of the points that came up in the summer when his qualifications were being discussed was that his experience and relationships with players are pretty much limited to big stars, and those guys are already on everyone's radar. He admitted that he has little experience with guys below Tier One. Certainly, he has experience recruiting guys to sign shoe contracts and forming and maintaining relationships with players and execs.  

That seems like at least a jumping off point to me. Do you mean by this that he has some skills and experiences that would provide a basis for jumping into the deep end? So that he might not be lighting the world on fire at this point, but we wouldn't expect him to drown? I agree with that.

 Other NBA teams have shown interest in Nico before. I see enough there that I like, that makes me want to withhold judgement and assumption, and see what actually happens. Well, sure. I think we all hope that he grows into the job. I have not by any means decided or assumed that he will not eventually be competent, or even really good, at his job. I just don't see any basis to judge or assume that he has reached that point now. I admit that it irritated me for Cuban to hire a guy who had never done the job, at a point in the franchise history where it seemed like they could have really used skill and experience -- it's such a Cubes thing to do -- but, in any case, here we are, and I think we have to hope for the best. 

You compared him to someone who hasn't gone to school to be a doctor attempting to be a doctor. I get your point, but think it's over the top. Don't you? 

I would predict failure for the medical equipment exec that transferred to the operating room. I'd call the board or the police and tell patients to stay away.

For a standout CEO type with Nico's reported chops whose prior success depended upon judging NBA talent and building great NBA relationships,  I'd give him more of a chance to succeed than the medical equipment exec in the operating room. 

Choose your own example, if you don't like that one. My point was that some fields of endeavor require a high level of expertise, and being good at selling stuff and rubbing elbows with those customers/businesses doesn't mean the salesman is capable of doing those jobs or running those businesses. 

The next page in your story is that, "because of this shoe salesman's experience level, of course Cuban is still really the GM and Nico's title is just window dressing."

Respectfully, I don't think I said that. I believe I said that, considering that Nico doesn't have the qualifications to perform certain aspects of the job, it is possible that Cuban only wants him to do the re-structuring and selling parts of the position while he learns to do the more technical stuff. I do think there is some evidence for that. For example, it is still Cuban dealing with the media about roster matters, and pontificating on details about what they need/are interested in/are not interested in, etc. not Nico. Mavs fans have become used to that, but it is not the usual NBA owner-GM dynamic. 

My response is "maybe, but maybe not." I at least think enough of what Nico brings to the table, of his "experience", to wait and see and not assume that he's just "staff manager" with a glorified title. 

At the end of the day, it doesn't really matter what we assume about his title. I think the real issue to keep an eye on is whether the "cultural reset" is real, or whether it's just the same pig with different lipstick. The reset was headlined by a new GM and a new coach, but considering the circumstances, I don't see any reason to declare that the organization has undergone a sea change. Maybe they have, you never know. 

I'll give him a chance. And I'm gonna think of him as the GM until I see evidence, other than assumption,  that he's the staff manager with a grand title for window dressing.

Of course, we'll give him a chance. What choice do we have? And think of Nico however you want, I'll be rooting for you!

Fif, I sense that you might be offended on behalf of Nico. 

My uneasiness isn't even really about Nico. Although he has admitted that he has no experience with such areas as the salary cap, putting together a roster from top to bottom, knowledge of guys who aren't in the elite category, determination of what type of player the team needs in a particular situation, etc., there are other people in the organization who presumably do have some understanding of those things, and they are probably being counted on to prop him up as he gets his feet under him. 

My real queasiness has to do with Cuban, but I know you don't like hearing that he might still be the boss. Okay, let's say he isn't.  Then who is? Nico doesn't appear to be, either. Look at the casual committee of governance Cuban has established. Everything isn't being run through Nico, as one might expect in the usual case of an organization's team president. Nico appears to be one of an informal group of people who have an important voice in the enterprise. And that might be appropriate, given the situation. 

I don't think I have slandered Nico. If a person hasn't done something before, then he hasn't done it before, and I don't think it's mean to acknowledge that -- he has said it himself. If Cuban really wants the Mavs to be a professionally run organization, rather than a start-up-like, free-form affair without the usual defined roles and clear lines of authority that attend established enterprises, then that should become evident at some point. I just don't see it, yet. You may be more prescient than I!

Thanks for your detailed response. Much food for thought in your post!

[F Gump]

Fif, I sense that you might be offended on behalf of Nico. 

....

My uneasiness isn't even really about Nico. 

....

My real queasiness has to do with Cuban 

This is an interesting discussion, and I suspect there is no answer, just opinions and perspectives. Mine agrees with each of you in some ways, but with neither of you fully.

The simplest summary of how I see Nico is:
1 I think Nico was indeed given the reins by MC, with Cuban stepping back from the decision making.
2 I think Cuban is trusting Nico to be smart enough to know when and how to get help from others, if he doesn't know the answer. That's not an unreasonable approach imo.
3 OTOH I don't think Nico was really ready to be an expert GM when he was hired.
...To me, that made him "unqualified" (because imo the Mavs desperately needed an expert, not a trainee).
...I wanted someone who either already had skins on the wall (like an Ainge, Ujiri, West, Ellsberg, etc), or someone who had already done years of training (in one or more front offices) and appeared very ready for the next step with hints of looming expertness.
...Nico has none of that.
4 I don't know if Nico can grow into the job or not. Not saying he can't, but rather he has never even tried to do any of the skills needed to be an expert at creating an NBA winner, so why should we expect greatness is ahead?
5 I think the "shoe salesman" moniker, while certainly exaggerating the point, nevertheless is a very fair exaggeration, as it highlights Nico's complete lack of any experience (much less expertise) in player evaluating, scouting, development, trade negotiating, cap juggling, roster fit, assessing needs correctly, filling needs, and the other skills required to plan and acquire a superior NBA roster that can win titles.
6 I hope he works out. But I am not optimistic he will be an expert overnight, or anytime soon, (or maybe ever), because it's a highly competitive game and his competition has the benefit of years of learning the game and doing it. In addition, who's the expert in Dallas to teach him what it takes to be an expert GM? Isn't it going to be "the blind leading the blind" as he tries to learn how to catch up to the other 29 GMs?

[DallasMaverick]

Fif, I sense that you might be offended on behalf of Nico. 

My uneasiness isn't even really about Nico. Although he has admitted that he has no experience with such areas as the salary cap, putting together a roster from top to bottom, knowledge of guys who aren't in the elite category, determination of what type of player the team needs in a particular situation, etc., there are other people in the organization who presumably do have some understanding of those things, and they are probably being counted on to prop him up as he gets his feet under him. 

My real queasiness has to do with Cuban, but I know you don't like hearing that he might still be the boss. Okay, let's say he isn't.  Then who is? Nico doesn't appear to be, either. Look at the casual committee of governance Cuban has established. Everything isn't being run through Nico, as one might expect in the usual case of an organization's team president. Nico appears to be one of an informal group of people who have an important voice in the enterprise. And that might be appropriate, given the situation. 

I don't think I have slandered Nico. If a person hasn't done something before, then he hasn't done it before, and I don't think it's mean to acknowledge that -- he has said it himself. If Cuban really wants the Mavs to be a professionally run organization, rather than a start-up-like, free-form affair without the usual defined roles and clear lines of authority that attend established enterprises, then that should become evident at some point. I just don't see it, yet. You may be more prescient than I!

Thanks for your detailed response. Much food for thought in your post!

Seems like it all boils down to decisions.  Whom to draft. Whom to trade.  Whom to trade for.  Those decisions are made in the context of several voices, several opinions.  Big Cubes.  The salary cap spreadsheet guy.  Kidd's preferences. Guys in the scouting department.  Analytics guys like Voulgaris.

Whoever's in the decision-making seat (or seats) has to listen to inputs and make a call.  Sometimes it's a home run.  Sometimes it's a strike out.  And anywhere in between.

Over a long enough period of time, we gain a pretty good idea of how those decisions play out.  Sometimes a wonder-child like Danny Ainge seems to win every trade, or R.C. Buford seems to keep hitting home runs on low draft picks.  But sometimes there's regression to the mean, and Boston whiffs on a few, or San Antonio gets kinda bad.  Just because a GM has a couple of brilliant moves doesn't mean he can continue for an entire career.  Or just because he gets taken once or twice doesn't mean he's incompetent or incapable.

And of course, with limited visibility into the process, it's tough for us outsiders to assign blame with any real certainty (although we certainly try!).

...and even if we could pinpoint with 100% accuracy everything in the rear view mirror...what good would it do?  Let's say, for example, that we could diagnose the single greatest failure of the Mav organization over the past 10 years was their missing on Giannis in the draft.  And we could lay the blame squarely at the feet of Mark Cuban, who was solely responsible for the decision.
Does that make him somehow incapable of hitting a home run in the future?  Or, if he's a good student, much more likely to avoid a mistake he's made in the past?

I find these blame-hunting endeavors tiring and simplistic, and mostly unfruitful.

Do the best-structured organizations always yield the best results? No.  Do the smartest people always make the best decisions?  No.  Sometimes, it's pure, blind luck, like in A Random Walk down Wall Street.  Sometimes the complexity of relationships and personalities can't be quantified.  If it could, we'd reduce winning to a simple set of steps, a nice formula that yields repeatable results.  Life isn't like that.

[mavsluvr]

Do the best-structured organizations always yield the best results? No.  Do the smartest people always make the best decisions?  No.  Sometimes, it's pure, blind luck, like in A Random Walk down Wall Street.  Sometimes the complexity of relationships and personalities can't be quantified.  If it could, we'd reduce winning to a simple set of steps, a nice formula that yields repeatable results.  Life isn't like that.

Indeed. Why bother to try to improve a poorly structured organization or hire smarter people? An exercise in futility. Everything is random, and nothing matters. Life is a dark, cold, and lonely wilderness, and all we can do is howl in it. 


Matthew Arnold said it best --

Ah, love, let us be true
To one another! for the world which seems To lie before us like a land of dreams,
So various, so beautiful, so new,
Hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain;

And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight, Where ignorant armies clash by night.
                                                                                                           Dover Beach

[fifteenth]

Indeed. Why bother to try to improve a poorly structured organization or hire smarter people? An exercise in futility. Everything is random, and nothing matters. Life is a dark, cold, and lonely wilderness, and all we can do is howl in it. 


Matthew Arnold said it best --

Ah, love, let us be true
To one another! for the world which seems To lie before us like a land of dreams,
So various, so beautiful, so new,
Hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain;

And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight, Where ignorant armies clash by night.
                                                                                                           Dover Beach

Ha ha! I like the following offering as well.

"Shut it down, let's go home" 

-Dirk

[DallasMaverick]

Indeed. Why bother to try to improve a poorly structured organization or hire smarter people? An exercise in futility. Everything is random, and nothing matters. Life is a dark, cold, and lonely wilderness, and all we can do is howl in it. 


Matthew Arnold said it best --

Ah, love, let us be true
To one another! for the world which seems To lie before us like a land of dreams,
So various, so beautiful, so new,
Hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain;

And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight, Where ignorant armies clash by night.
                                                                                                           Dover Beach

All we are is dust in the wind...