IZTOK DIAGNOSES DECLINE OF MAVS OFFENSE

[mavsluvr]

Where Has All the Offense Gone?

The exciting and effective offense of the past two seasons has deteriorated into a slog this season. Shot quality has been reduced. More mid-range shots and fewer shots at the rim are being attempted. Drives have declined to 24th in the league. A team that averaged 117 and 112 points in the last two seasons frequently doesn't manage 100. Shouldn't a team that “is built for offense,” per Jason Kidd, be better than mediocre on that end of the court? Yes. 

So, what's up with the decline? Several factors may be at play. 

New Ball. This is Mark Cuban’s proffered opinion. Make of it what you will.

New Officiating Rules. This has had an effect league-wide, but the Mavs have declined relative to other teams. 

Luka’s Conditioning. Luka’s burst has been sapped, making him have to work harder to drive by defenders and get into the paint. Luka needs to be better. But Kidd's scheme is not doing him any favors. 

But, mainly — 

Kidd’s Offense

Two-Big Lineups

Carlisle used these too, but far less often than Kidd does. These lineups rank among the worst in the league offensively. When these lineups are on the floor, drives, Luka’s pick-and-roll efficiency, volume of uncontested corner threes, and shots in the restricted area are worse. The KP-Powell lineups are the worst in the NBA in terms of rim frequency. 

Lack of clearly defined roles. Interesting fact. These lineups worked very well offensively in Carlisle’s scheme (although they struggled defensively). This was at least partly due to having clearly defined roles — the center served as the screener and roller, and the PF spaced the floor. In the KP-Powell duo, Powell would screen and roll, KP would hang out behind the three-point line, and it was all copacetic wrt offensive performance. 

Prioritizing KP's individual performance. Kidd’s main focus on offense has been to get KP back to playing at an All-Star level. That goal requires not giving KP a limited role. KP now serves as the screener (rather than the spacer) more than twice as often, even with Powell on the floor. While it is a noble effort to lift KP, the result is that defenders ignore Powell and instead pack the paint to prevent Luka’s drives. The Luka-KP tandem was the league’s best PNR duo last season. Executing those plays with another guy on the floor who doesn’t have to be guarded has cratered the maneuver. 

And the two-big lineups aren't even the biggest challenge in the new system. That would be --

Spacing

In Carlisle’s offense, spacing was a very high priority, with shooters placed deep in the corners and high on the wings. For Kidd’s coaching staff, spacing is simply not a priority — rather, they are more focused on defense. On offense, their main goal is to get KP operating like he did in NY — more plays inside the arc, more post-ups, more elbow action. The shooters are positioned closer in, and it is ruining Luka’s ability to drive in a league where a foot, or even a fraction of an inch, can matter. 

This far into the season, KP is still seen trying to seal his man in isolation and PNRs. He spends more time at the dunker’s spot (on the baseline just outside the paint), even when he is the only big on the court. Accordingly, Luka's ability to get to the rim is reduced. Taking a dismal recent late-game play trying to come from behind as an example, Luka drives into the paint off a Brunson pick. Last season, that would have resulted in an easy layup. Now, KP is hanging out near the rim, KP's defender collapses on Luka, Luka is forced to make an awkward kick-out to Tim, and Tim misses the three. Plays like this add up, and turn the Mavs into a jump-shooting team. 

Where We Go From Here

It’s too early to assess Kidd’s offense as a finished product. He is still experimenting, and, in fairness, the results haven’t been all bad. KP looks more comfortable, and is more aggressively attacking mismatches. If Porzingis can punish opponents for putting wings on him, that would go a long way toward unlocking the Luka-KP PNR in the playoffs. 

But first, they have to get to the playoffs, let alone try to win a series. For this to happen, everybody on the team has to bring his “A” game. The talent level of the roster and the team’s position in the standings don’t allow much more time for experimenting. Shooters have to start making open shots. Luka needs to get in shape. Kidd needs to dial the two-big lineups down and unclog the offense. 

There is still enough season left to turn the offense around. But time is growing short. 


https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2021/12...-solution/ 

[KillerLeft]

Great recap, thanks!

[mavsluvr]

Update --

Iztok said on Twitter today that he wanted to elaborate on his article in two respects. 

1.  Two-big lineups

When he talks about the poor two-big lineups, he is talking about lineups in which KP is operating as the 4. 

The Lakers have faced similar problems with AD. Kidd often refers to Vogel as his mentor, and Vogel says he was able to unlock LeBron's offense by downsizing to smaller lineups, with one big or no bigs. AD played over 90% of his time at PF last season, and now spends 70% of his minutes at center. Kidd may want to consider the same. 

(Iztok acknowledges in the original article that he understands the logic of using two bigs to preserve KP's body for the playoffs, but thinks that goal must be balanced with the team's performing at a sufficient level to get to the playoffs in the first place.)

2.  Three-point shooting

Data suggests that the new ball is not the problem. Rather, it's more about the new rules and Kidd's system. 

The Mavs are still okay at uncontested or lightly contested threes. However, they take the highest number of heavily contested threes in the league, and make them at the third-worst rate. Last season, the team took fewer heavily contested threes (although still a lot), but Luka, KP and THJ were making them at a very high rate, and this season, they're not. Some positive regression could still occur, but it may not be totally a result of randomness.

[Chicagojk]

It is going to be really interesting on how the manage preserving KP vs continuing to try to smash a square peg through a round hole.  This is going to be such a important need if we deem KP as a core player (either due to his play or unable to get good value in return).  That PF type is going to be extremely difficult to get.   I believe if they found that player, this team is not far off from contending.  The problem is they are really hard to find.   

Christian Wood is a difficult evaluation for me.  Both on the court and off.  But lets say you added him to this roster.  He is not the playmaker I would prefer, but he fits a lot of other boxes I like.    Would that type of player work with KP?   John Collins type player too.   Those may be the type of players we look to go all in in the next year- year and a half.   The rest of the roster would still need a few more tweaks such as another wing creator, but it would be close.

[omahen]

It is going to be really interesting on how the manage preserving KP vs continuing to try to smash a square peg through a round hole.  This is going to be such a important need if we deem KP as a core player (either due to his play or unable to get good value in return).  That PF type is going to be extremely difficult to get.   I believe if they found that player, this team is not far off from contending.  The problem is they are really hard to find.   

Christian Wood is a difficult evaluation for me.  Both on the court and off.  But lets say you added him to this roster.  He is not the playmaker I would prefer, but he fits a lot of other boxes I like.    Would that type of player work with KP?   John Collins type player too.   Those may be the type of players we look to go all in in the next year- year and a half.   The rest of the roster would still need a few more tweaks such as another wing creator, but it would be close.

I really like Wood but I agree he is difficult to assess. We know we need a 3 point shooting guy next to KP, as long as they allow him to post up. I am affraid that all options with center (Sabonis also mentioned lately) will just not be good enough defensively, especially in the playoffs. I think a big wing is the guy they really should be playing next to KP. If they can't, then trade KP. Mavs don't have enough talent to get a respectable playoff spot playing suboptimal lineups.

[mavsluvr]

Iztok adds that he thinks the coaching staff understands the problems with two-big lineups, but made a decision early on to minimize KP's time at center for body-preservation purposes. The problem is, the margin of error has grown so thin that they can't keep doing this. 

Iztok believes that Kidd must (1) reduce the amount of time KP spends at the four; and/or, (2) make the lineups with Kidd at PF work, as Carlisle did.

[chaparral]

I understand the term 5 out w/KP at the 5.  But is there a name for the type of offence Kidd is trying to run with 2 bigs and KP at the 4?  And what type of offence would Kidd run if KP was not on this team?

[michaeltex]

Update --

Iztok said on Twitter today that he wanted to elaborate on his article in two respects. 

1.  Two-big lineups

When he talks about the poor two-big lineups, he is talking about lineups in which KP is operating as the 4. 

The Lakers have faced similar problems with AD. Kidd often refers to Vogel as his mentor, and Vogel says he was able to unlock LeBron's offense by downsizing to smaller lineups, with one big or no bigs. AD played over 90% of his time at PF last season, and now spends 70% of his minutes at center. Kidd may want to consider the same. 

(Iztok acknowledges in the original article that he understands the logic of using two bigs to preserve KP's body for the playoffs, but thinks that goal must be balanced with the team's performing at a sufficient level to get to the playoffs in the first place.)

2.  Three-point shooting

Data suggests that the new ball is not the problem. Rather, it's more about the new rules and Kidd's system. 

The Mavs are still okay at uncontested or lightly contested threes. However, they take the highest number of heavily contested threes in the league, and make them at the third-worst rate. Last season, the team took fewer heavily contested threes (although still a lot), but Luka, KP and THJ were making them at a very high rate, and this season, they're not. Some positive regression could still occur, but it may not be totally a result of randomness.

The 3pt shooting seems to go back to the spacing issue. If the shooters aren't deep in the corner and high on the wing, or when one is a non-shooter like DP, then you can have one guy cover both and use the extra coverage to disrupt Luka's game.

I get that Kidd is trying to elevate KP's game, but it almost feels like sub-optimizing to make one guy successful. Maybe this is part of inflating his value for a trade, but I personally am frustrated with the result. Last two seasons you always had a sense that the guys were never out of a game, but this year there have been several they were done before the 4th quarter started.

[omahen]

Iztok believes that Kidd must (1) reduce the amount of time KP spends at the four: and/or, (2) make the lineups with Kidd at PF work, as Carlisle did.

I would add (3) get 3 point shooting center. 

Aaron Baynes (not sure if he is healthy) is a FA. I think he is much better than Powell and WCS.

Some cheap trade options: Muscala, Olynik. Perhaps available but not that cheap: Bryant, Bamba

[KillerLeft]

And what type of offence would Kidd run if KP was not on this team?

That's a great question. 

I think the elephant in the room is that Kidd was brought in with a mandate of making KP happy and to help him look good enough to make the Mavericks' situation a little less depressing while they figure out what to do next. I'm not even joking. 

A fool's errand, imho, but I have to say that Kidd has accomplished it with more success than I anticipated, which could, in a certain light, be viewed as reason to inspire hope.

---

I get that Kidd is trying to elevate KP's game, but it almost feels like sub-optimizing to make one guy successful.

This.

[Chicagojk]

I would add (3) get 3 point shooting center. 

Aaron Baynes (not sure if he is healthy) is a FA. I think he is much better than Powell and WCS.

Some cheap trade options: Muscala, Olynik. Perhaps available but not that cheap: Bryant, Bamba

I think Olynik would be real attractive.  Not a huge fan but I imagine playing for a 4 win team plus being hurt, you could probably get him for almost nothing.   He could be a nice short term solution to play 20 minutes a night.

A few weeks ago I thought Bryant was going to cost something....still might.  But Washington have been cratering lately.    When Bryant is back, they will have 3 centers (two will be free agents after the season).    Orlando is also worth watching.    Is Robin Lopez just like a similar version of Boban?    Jalen Smith from PHX may be interesting as well.  Although he is not really a center and is more of a guy you hopes develops rather than a finished product.

[Chicagojk]

I really like Wood but I agree he is difficult to assess. We know we need a 3 point shooting guy next to KP, as long as they allow him to post up. I am affraid that all options with center (Sabonis also mentioned lately) will just not be good enough defensively, especially in the playoffs. I think a big wing is the guy they really should be playing next to KP. If they can't, then trade KP. Mavs don't have enough talent to get a respectable playoff spot playing suboptimal lineups.

I agree.  I think the piece I am envisioning is a PF who can play on the perimeter as well....more than a Center.   We have limited assets so we need to prioritize.  I think the center is much easier to find.    I am just not sure if there is a deal for that PF right now.    If not, we need to find a way to get better center play.   I think finding a short term solution will be available to us.    Even if that is just 15% better than what we already have.

[dirkfansince1998]

The 3pt shooting seems to go back to the spacing issue. If the shooters aren't deep in the corner and high on the wing, or when one is a non-shooter like DP, then you can have one guy cover both and use the extra coverage to disrupt Luka's game.

I get that Kidd is trying to elevate KP's game, but it almost feels like sub-optimizing to make one guy successful. Maybe this is part of inflating his value for a trade, but I personally am frustrated with the result. Last two seasons you always had a sense that the guys were never out of a game, but this year there have been several they were done before the 4th quarter started.

I think we would all agree that KP is moving better than last season but the numbers don´t reflect the improvement. They are actually worse. Slight increase in assists but the worst PPG (exact same PP/36 compared to last season) and TS% since he became a Mav.
On pace to have his most efficient season ever under the rim. Also having the worst jump shooting season of his career. 40.5% from midrange, 28.8% from 3.

Right now they aren´t even elevating KPs game. He is probably happier because he is more involved but the overall results aren´t better. Even when we are talking about KPs individual numbers.

[sefant]

DP needs to get Kemba'd. Mavs offense is better than the Warriors when he is off the floor. And worse than Rockets when he plays. Even 10-20 minutes is too much at this point. While i think Luka was in terrible shape to start the season, lots of Luka's +/- mess is pairing him with Powell.

The two biggest roster challenges:

Luka + THJ pairing isn't working on defense -> WORST defense in the league when they share the floor
Powell isn't working at all. Give me Eugene at this point (and see if he can give you extra spacing), Kleber or go small with DFS/Bullock at the 4.


While individual net rating isn't a good stat, DP managed a negative net rating in the last 3 games. Every other player on the roster was positive. We are talking about 2 blowout wins and a close OT loss.

[dirkfansince1998]

Luka + THJ pairing isn't working on defense -> WORST defense in the league when they share the floor

I wanted THJ back but I obviously didn´t know what kind of defense Kidd wants to run. My message over the last couple of years has been consistent. THJ is a solid on ball defender. Terrible team defender.
In the new (more agressive) scheme that requires more rotations from the off ball defenders THJ is a really bad fit. Something they should have known prior to signing him.

[mavsluvr]

I understand the term 5 out w/KP at the 5.  But is there a name for the type of offence Kidd is trying to run with 2 bigs and KP at the 4?  And what type of offence would Kidd run if KP was not on this team?

I think this question presupposes that Kidd would change the offense he runs to suit his roster. I think that is far from a given.

[mavsluvr]

While individual net rating isn't a good stat, DP managed a negative net rating in the last 3 games. Every other player on the roster was positive. We are talking about 2 blowout wins and a close OT loss.

Not as a defense of Powell, but as a comment on statistics --


This example might be an illustration of this statistic not necessarily telling you the whole story. While Powell has his flaws, I think blaming him for being stuck in lineups where he is assigned to space the floor so that KP can rock and roll might lead to not recognizing the main problem -- a very poor scheme for these lineups.

[fifteenth]

Where Has All the Offense Gone?

The exciting and effective offense of the past two seasons has deteriorated into...
https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2021/12...-solution/ 

Iztok rules!

This isn't the first time I've had this thought, but this article brought it back to the front of my thoughts. If the primary goal is to "get KP going", that makes me wonder if the primary, internal goal, is to make KP tradeable.

[Kammrath]

If the primary goal is to "get KP going", that makes me wonder if the primary, internal goal, is to make KP tradeable

Must be IMO. RC was utilizing KP in a way that he thought would best get the team to win. I think Kidd has been directed to utilize KP in a way that increases his value.

[KillerLeft]

I think Kidd has been directed to utilize KP in a way that increases his value.

I don't agree with that idea (not your observation of it, but the principle at play if in fact your observation is accurate) so I have a huge problem with running a team this way, but I must admit that I would much prefer to believe that than to believe that it's a plan to improve the team over years past. 

I'm really curious for this trade deadline. In the past, we always knew that the Mavs were willing and able to take BIG in-season swings (many teams won't) and it was just a matter of waiting to find out if they could get anything done. This year we have zero clue about what they're even out to do, philosophically. A KP trade is a pretty quick way for a new GM to put his stamp on the team, imo, but we don't even know that they're trying, really.