IZTOK ON KIDD'S DEFENSIVE SYSTEM AND THE ROSTER

[Mavs2021]

So I ran four men line-ups through NBA.com and the defensive ratings. Minimum 10 minutes played. In the top 25 line-ups:

Players appear:

Bullock 15
Ntilikina 12
Brunson 11
Porzingis 7
WCS 7
Kleber 6
THJ 6
Burke 6
DFS 5
S. Brown 5
Doncic 4
M. Brown 3
J. Green 3
Powell 2
Omoruyi 2
Boban 2

Now i know not all minutes are created equal in regards to the situations, level of opposition and team mates, but if Kidd has such a hard on, the question becomes why Omoruyi or M. Brown are not taking some of Powell´s minutes and J. Green is not taking some of S. Brown´s minutes. They have so few minutes, but still appear in as many impact defensive line-ups. Given that they are much younger and have more developmental potential, you´d think it would at least be worth a try.

If I open this up to five minutes together Josh Green´s number sky-rockets to 32% of the top 25 line-ups, while Lukas´s number drops to zero.

Don´t complain about not having any defensive players, when you don´t play your best defensive players. Or just flat out say that you need better players period that can play both ends of the floor.
 
I think this also tells me Luka needs to get better at the defensive end, but also that they have absolutely not found a defensive set-up with Luka that works and imho the answer to this question is that Luka is basically a PG on offense, but a PF on defense. For some weird reason Kidd continues to play with PF Powell, who contributes nothing on either end of the floor. Get him out of the starting five for a faster/smaller defensive player and you´ll see defensive improvment immediately imho.

[burekemde]

Yes Luka absolutely needs to attack the rim. ESSENTIAL for his effectiveness.

Luka shot 26.0% of his shots at the rim in 19-20, then 18.0% in 20-21, and now 11.5% in 21-22. I personally believe this is directly connected to his weight/conditioning which from my view has gotten worse progressively each of the last three seasons. 

But regardless of the cause, Luka absolutely needs to get back to getting shots at the rim, it opens up HIS game and everyone around him.

From seeing the stacked paint, it's in my view 100% on the scheme. When you have KP and Powell in the paint, its hard to get to the rim. What makes it worse, is the wrong positioning of players outside, that even when they get it open, dont hit their shots. Meaning the defenses can collapse even more into the paint as they dont respect our shooters.

Reverse back two years and you have Curry, THJ, KP, Maxi spaced well with proper positions on the outside, and the defenses had to respect each and could not collapse the paint. In addition, you only had Powell as roll man. Luka had single coverage and destroyed that. Any double team was punished by good spacing outside.

Luka doesnt attack into the paint as its not effective enough, there is too often double teams coming up. I count that many times a game, whereas before under RC that number was a lot lower.

To get back at ML point, both on offense and defense, Kidd is trying to fix some deficiencies. Yes we would be great if we could move more on defense. But we are not good at that. Yes, we would be good if we could have two big in the paint on offense getting more offensive boards and getting more mid rangers. But we are not good at that.

What he is trying, is maybe hurting the things we are great at. Thats exactly the question we need to ask. That's why the shooting has gone worse, thats why attacking the rim has gone worse. And everything in basketball is connected. Once you cant shoot, it effects your rim play as well. Its a super delicate balance.

[dirkfansince1998]

From seeing the stacked paint, it's in my view 100% on the scheme. When you have KP and Powell in the paint, its hard to get to the rim. What makes it worse, is the wrong positioning of players outside, that even when they get it open, dont hit their shots. Meaning the defenses can collapse even more into the paint as they dont respect our shooters.

Reverse back two years and you have Curry, THJ, KP, Maxi spaced well with proper positions on the outside, and the defenses had to respect each and could not collapse the paint. In addition, you only had Powell as roll man. Luka had single coverage and destroyed that. Any double team was punished by good spacing outside.

Luka doesnt attack into the paint as its not effective enough, there is too often double teams coming up. I count that many times a game, whereas before under RC that number was a lot lower.

Did not know where to put this but the double team tracking is really highlighting this observation.

https://nbacourtoptix.nba.com/en

According to NBA.com´s tracking Luka leads the league in drawn double teams. On a percentage of possessions base and also in total per game. Mavs scoring effciency on those plays is mediocre.

[mavsluvr]

Well articulated, with astonishing clarity and rare style. 

Hopefully, even if the effect you describe at the end is what we're seeing, it will be temporary and pay off in the end.

LOL

I always like it when you and fif are posting, because I usually leave laughing (in a good way!) 

It doesn't even matter when the laugh is on me, hahaha.

[KillerLeft]

It doesn't even matter when the laugh is on me, hahaha.

Appreciate the compliment, and hopefully you didn't get the impression that I was being sarcastic at your expense. I absolutely meant what I said!

[hakeemfaan]

Reading all this and the article that mavsluvr posted, it ilooks like a huge coaching issue more than anything else.

I am not going to focus on other things that were also said on the leadership vacuum thread and will just stick to defense.  

Yes Luka is lazy on defense and does not give his all there. How many so called superstars do?  Even the rare ones among them who were lauded for their defense like a MJ, Kobe, LeBron were not Hakeem in the sense they pick and choose parts in the game where they go all out on defense. 

However Luka is also the same guy who played some really good defense in the LAC series. Probably better man to man defense than Dirk has ever done at any point in his career. So I am not going to say that he is automatically relegated to being a lost cause on defense. Needs to get in better shape, get back than complain to refs, and get his usage down on offense so that he can pick and choose his spots to go all out on defense too like other great ones did even if he cannot match their defensive abilities. He IMO can still be a pretty good defender based on last year’s playoffs. 

The real issue though is this. All teams that have transcendent stars do things to hide their defensive weaknesses and maximize their offense. That is on the coaching staff.  The last line in mavsluvr provided article summarizes my view too:
“Kidd had just about the ideal roster to make this experiment work. If it didn’t work in Milwaukee,  why would it work anywhere else?”

[mavsluvr]

The real issue though is this. All teams that have transcendent stars do things to hide their defensive weaknesses and maximize their offense. That is on the coaching staff.

This. 


No one is asking Steph Curry to stop running around attempting threes and protect the rim instead. A book's worth of analysis was devoted to the compensations the Nash Suns team made for Steve. Transcendent stars have to devote a great deal of effort on the court, and conservation of energy is a skill like any other. Squandering energy in efforts that can't achieve material results is not heroic -- it's dumb. 

If they want Luka to address deficiencies, it probably makes more sense for him to practice shooting (for example) than to devote his energies to trying to be a stopper or trying to sculpt his body to resemble Trae Young. 

Luka may actually have it in him to be a truly great shooter, if he works his craft. But he's probably never going to be the guy who locks down the paint and also closes out on shooters, all in the same possession. Similarly, even if he lost a third of his body weight, he still wouldn't be the gazelle twinkling down the court before you can blink an eye. He doesn't have an ectomorphic body, and all the effort in the world won't give him one.  

Not to say Luka should refuse to play defense, or spend his evenings eating chips and drinking beer. But in terms of prioritizing his energy on improvements, he should be encouraged to devote his energy to goals where he can get the most bang for the buck, not places where a great deal of effort will make only a modicum of difference. There are other players in the league who can help the team by being agile defenders or running fast. But hardly anyone can do what Luka does well. 

It is on the organization to develop systems and assemble players who complement Luka's strengths and can help compensate for his weaknesses. They shouldn't demand that he cover for all their failures, and if he doesn't, shame him as a slothful and obese slacker.  Imho, anyway.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

No one is asking Steph Curry to stop running around attempting threes and protect the rim instead. A book's worth of analysis was devoted to the compensations the Nash Suns team made for Steve. Transcendent stars have to devote a great deal of effort on the court, and conservation of energy is a skill like any other. Squandering energy in efforts that can't achieve material results is not heroic -- it's dumb. 

If they want Luka to address deficiencies, it probably makes more sense for him to practice shooting (for example) than to devote his energies to trying to be a stopper or trying to sculpt his body to resemble Trae Young. 

.. even if he lost a third of his body weight, he still wouldn't be the gazelle twinkling down the court before you can blink an eye. He doesn't have an ectomorphic body, and all the effort in the world won't give him one.  

What I get from the first few sentences is the thought of not changing the way Luka plays. A team should build around phenoms and not ask the phenom to adjust to the system. But you probably mean not asking Luka to defend as much, which I agree as well. If it takes too much of a toll on him that his offense suffers, the Mavs should just go on with a Luka running a brilliant offense than a Luka at 70% offense and a minor improvement in defense.

For the weight issue however... people are throwing out the "he-can't-be-Morant-even-if-Luka-tries-his-hardest". The thing is, some of us aren't asking for a sculpted body of Trae for Luka, or Luka to run like a gazelle, none of those superlatives matter to us. We simply want him to tone down a few notches of weight which can lead to a bump of a few notches of quickness. Luka is already strong and he doesn't need more strength as it stands, unless he wants to become a power forward. The increase in speed and quickness can do him wonders, we already know he plays like an MVP when he is fit. His weight at this point doesn't allow him that.

Again, I'll point this out for emphasis.
The way I see it, Luka was like a 7 in strength and a 5 in quickness last 2 seasons ago.
Now he is an 8 in strength and a 4 in quickness. That will be okay if he isn't playing point guard, but he is. A point guard doesn't have to be quick to be effective, but the thing with Luka at PG is we do not want him to be just "effective", he must always be lethal as he can.

That said, I hope he gets back to a 7 and 5. 
7 and 5 doesn't give you Morant-like jumping ability or De'Aaron-Fox-like speed, but a 7 and 5 for Luka just means his fittest playing weight so far, and a likely MVP candidate.

[hakeemfaan]

Mavsluvr. The term shaming usually applies to ordinary celebs where their body mass composition has no relevance to their activities. Athletes have to be in shape. As the previous poster mentioned Luka might never be chiseled and that is perfectly fine.  

Jokic dropped down to 250 from 290 but felt it took something away from his strength and is back up to 280 now but by all accounts he is working hard and while some amount of fat is needed for that type of gaining weight back, he is apparently also working out hard. 

The other thing is not cribbing constantly and missing defensive assignments due to that. 

So yes the coaching can be faulted, but there are some things Luka needs to improve too.  He is the face of this franchise, is getting paid a ton of money, and wields a lot of power. So he can do some things in his control too. I still feel if he is in shape he is a good defender.

[mavsluvr]

What I get from the first few sentences is the thought of not changing the way Luka plays. A team should build around phenoms and not ask the phenom to adjust to the system. But you probably mean not asking Luka to defend as much, which I agree as well. If it takes too much of a toll on him that his offense suffers, the Mavs should just go on with a Luka running a brilliant offense than a Luka at 70% offense and a minor improvement in defense.

For the weight issue however... people are throwing out the "he-can't-be-Morant-even-if-Luka-tries-his-hardest". The thing is, some of us aren't asking for a sculpted body of Trae for Luka, or Luka to run like a gazelle, none of those superlatives matter to us. We simply want him to tone down a few notches of weight which can lead to a bump of a few notches of quickness. Luka is already strong and he doesn't need more strength as it stands, unless he wants to become a power forward. The increase in speed and quickness can do him wonders, we already know he plays like an MVP when he is fit. His weight at this point doesn't allow him that.

Again, I'll point this out for emphasis.
The way I see it, Luka was like a 7 in strength and a 5 in quickness last 2 seasons ago.
Now he is an 8 in strength and a 4 in quickness. That will be okay if he isn't playing point guard, but he is. A point guard doesn't have to be quick to be effective, but the thing with Luka at PG is we do not want him to be just "effective", he must always be lethal as he can.

That said, I hope he gets back to a 7 and 5. 
7 and 5 doesn't give you Morant-like jumping ability or De'Aaron-Fox-like speed, but a 7 and 5 for Luka just means his fittest playing weight so far, and a likely MVP candidate.

I think you get it. 


The weight issue was just an example, but let's use your hypothetical. That there is a tradeoff to be made between strength and quickness when a weight choice is made. Where should these changes be made? 

Fan K thinks if Luka loses a couple of notches of weight, the team would improve markedly, and if he loses even more, the team could tear the league up. 

The Coaching staff thinks if Luka loses a couple of notches of weight, it wouldn't make any difference, but that if he loses more than a couple of notches, he will shed effectiveness and will no longer have the ability to rumble like a freight train across the court. 

What are we to do with these varying articles of belief? Maybe make Luka cycle through all the weight choices to see if there is a magic weight that turns him into a lithe version of  Hercules?

[KillerLeft]

The Coaching staff thinks if Luka loses a couple of notches of weight, it wouldn't make any difference, but that if he loses more than a couple of notches, he will shed effectiveness and will no longer have the ability to rumble like a freight train across the court.

Not calling this into question, but just want to be clear:

Besides the statement from Dameris on the podcast that you summarized (meaning we're two layers removed from any real source), do we have any basis to accept this as fact?

I don't agree with the coaches, if this is in fact what they think.

[mavsluvr]

Mavsluvr. The term shaming usually applies to ordinary celebs where their body mass composition has no relevance to their activities. Athletes get body shamed, just like anybody else. Celebs get body shamed, even (especially?) when important elements of their job involves their bodies being a certain way. No one is exempt, and everyone is hurt by it.  Athletes have to be in shape. As the previous poster mentioned Luka might never be chiseled and that is perfectly fine.  

Jokic dropped down to 250 from 290 but felt it took something away from his strength and is back up to 280 now but by all accounts he is working hard and while some amount of fat is needed for that type of gaining weight back, he is apparently also working out hard. 

The other thing is not cribbing constantly and missing defensive assignments due to that. He needs to grow up in this respect, yes. I'm not counting on it happening overnight, but I think he'll get there. 

So yes the coaching can be faulted, but there are some things Luka needs to improve too. Of course, there are. I think he expects and wants to be coached. If Cuban walked in tomorrow and told him he was no longer going to be coached and could just do whatever he wanted, I think he would be bewildered, not thrilled.  He is the face of this franchise, is getting paid a ton of money, and wields a lot of power. So he can do some things in his control too. I still feel if he is in shape he is a good defender.

I raise the weight thing because we have an actual contradiction between what the team is telling Luka and what fans think he should do. The team doesn't want him to lose very much weight, because being big and strong for his position is critical to what he does. They know he isn't in peak shape yet, but they think he is in good shape and going in the right direction, and they don't think trying to rush him into completing the process would improve any results. So -- looks like the shaming fans think he should do one thing, and the team thinks he should do another. Therefore -what should we do with that?

---

Appreciate the compliment, and hopefully you didn't get the impression that I was being sarcastic at your expense. I absolutely meant what I said!

Kind of you, sir.

Didn't think you were being sarcastic, just thought you were adding a little sly humor into the mix -- always appreciated.

[mavsluvr]

Re: Mavs thinking Luka doesn't need to lose weight --

Not calling this into question, but just want to be clear:

Besides the statement from Dameris on the podcast that you summarized (meaning we're two layers removed from any real source), do we have any basis to accept this as fact?

I don't agree with the coaches, if this is in fact what they think.

Believe the other source was Voulgaris, who said he gets why the Mavs don't want Luka to lose weight.

Dameris and Bob could both be lying, of course.

[KillerLeft]

Dameris and Bob could both be lying, of course.

I don't think they're lying, but they might be getting lied to. 

It's just so obvious that he's better when he's a little lighter than he is now.

[hakeemfaan]

---

mavsluvr. If the team or FO is indeed telling him that there is no issue with his weight, then they are enabling him.  All of us saw he was out of shape to begin the season last year and this.  That is not shaming someone. That is a minimum expectation from even someone decorating the end of the bench let alone someone who is a franchise player on a max contract.    If you feel that is shaming or no concern, we just disagree on that. No probs. 

There has to be some balance between the weight that Luka is comfortable playing at and being in shape. No one is asking him to be cut or skinny. 

Back to the topic of defense, while Luka has to do his part, the coaching staff has to find schemes that protect their stars as much as possible. No disagreements there.

[vfromlmf]

Back to the original article ... this is gold for people who like to think about roster building. First you have Kidd telling the media his roster is built to shoot. "we're not built to play defense" ....and now you have this article. Seems there are a couple of guys in the rotation who really standout. Let the fun begin!

Foundation to build around: Luka, KP

Versatile Defenders: DFS, Kleber, Bullock, Ntilikina, WCS

Shooters / bigs who can't defend in Kidd's system: THJ, Brunson, Powell (combined $34 million)

Who's interested in Brunson + THJ to Detroit for Jerami Grant ?

[dynamicalVoid]

What I get from the first few sentences is the thought of not changing the way Luka plays. A team should build around phenoms and not ask the phenom to adjust to the system. But you probably mean not asking Luka to defend as much, which I agree as well. If it takes too much of a toll on him that his offense suffers, the Mavs should just go on with a Luka running a brilliant offense than a Luka at 70% offense and a minor improvement in defense.

For the weight issue however... people are throwing out the "he-can't-be-Morant-even-if-Luka-tries-his-hardest". The thing is, some of us aren't asking for a sculpted body of Trae for Luka, or Luka to run like a gazelle, none of those superlatives matter to us. We simply want him to tone down a few notches of weight which can lead to a bump of a few notches of quickness. Luka is already strong and he doesn't need more strength as it stands, unless he wants to become a power forward. The increase in speed and quickness can do him wonders, we already know he plays like an MVP when he is fit. His weight at this point doesn't allow him that.

Again, I'll point this out for emphasis.
The way I see it, Luka was like a 7 in strength and a 5 in quickness last 2 seasons ago.
Now he is an 8 in strength and a 4 in quickness. That will be okay if he isn't playing point guard, but he is. A point guard doesn't have to be quick to be effective, but the thing with Luka at PG is we do not want him to be just "effective", he must always be lethal as he can.

That said, I hope he gets back to a 7 and 5. 
7 and 5 doesn't give you Morant-like jumping ability or De'Aaron-Fox-like speed, but a 7 and 5 for Luka just means his fittest playing weight so far, and a likely MVP candidate.

That was me.

But...as Mavsluvr described way better than me...I also used the Tony Romo situation to try and illustrate that Mavs/Luka might think Luka being heavier is a more effective Luka right now.

After Romo started gaining weight...Cowboys fanbase wanted Romo to lose weight to be able to run if need be(seems perfectly reasonable)...Cowboys wanted Romo to be a pocket passer and gain weight to absorb contact better to prevent injury(seems perfectly reasonable).

So...where are we at?

Heres what I think:  I think posters are looking for reasons to bitch.  I dont think Luka is anywhere near a sloth/dangerously out of shape.  I agree that Luka should look into a professional diet...but I dont care if that makes him lose weight or not.   I agree that a lighter Luka would maybe help his reactions and movement on defense...but is the give and take him being less effective in the paint on offense or securing less rebounds because he is getting bodied?  I dont know.  What I do know is...constantly complaining about Luka's weight is a waste of time.  Hes fine

[fifteenth]

Wow, great thread. Seems like with Iztok's help we're getting closer to the mark in understanding the poor play.

@"mavsluvr", thanks for the summary and great thread starter!

Here's my question: does the fact that the team has executed the new schemes well against poor teams (at times) suggest that the team is on a learning curve and may get to where they are executing against good teams? Or, is it more probable that they don't have the personnel to get to that point where they execute the system well against good teams?

[fifteenth]

Heres what I think:  I think posters are looking for reasons to bitch. 

This may happen sometimes. But predominantly I think this place is populated with folks who care about the Mavs and are attempting to engage in thoughtful problem solving.

[dynamicalVoid]

This may happen sometimes. But predominantly I think this place is populated with folks who care about the Mavs and are attempting to engage in thoughtful problem solving.

This is by far the best sports board I have ever been on.  Everything else I have experienced is Doom or Gloom with every thread getting hijacked by polarizing opinions that distract from meaningful discussion.  This board rocks.