2022 NBA Draft: #37 Jaden Hardy (6' 3", 6' 9" WS) to DAL | two 2nds to SAC

[F Gump]

I don't think the Mavs will draft for need, nor should they. Not to fill a need this year, at least, because it's so HIGHLY unlikely that a player picked at 26 will play meaningful minutes on a team with title aspirations.

When looking at the draft choices, we should assume the Mavs existing regulars will be supplemented elsewhere (free agency or trade) by the addition of both a big and a 2-way wing, who can play a regular role in the playoffs. There won't be a hole for the draftee to step into. Plus, by the time he's ready in 2 or 3 years, the current set of regulars - and needs - will have changed.

If they find a guy who can help by then, call it a success.

[F Gump]

2) Kessler has a lot of body fat (14.7%), the 2nd most in the whole combine. 

You keep citing this as a reason not to draft Kessler. I'm not sure it is.

This guy is a skinny teenager, when you look at him. He's not fat. He just doesn't have a lot of muscle definition. It's not unlikely that whoever drafts him will get him in the weight room, and the bidy profile will begin to be quite different in a year or two.

If that happens, and I can't imagine it won't, what will that do to his game?

I see a LOT to like in this guy. He's certainly not a finished product, but he is mobile, relentless, and productive anyhow, and that interests me when combined with his EXTREME length.

[hakeemfaan]

If the Mavs don’t strictly draft for need this guy is extremely intriguing.  Clearly a couple of years and a few milkshakes needed prospect but skilled for that size

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XTaOibTjy8c

[Kammrath]

You keep citing this as a reason not to draft Kessler. I'm not sure it is.

This guy is a skinny teenager, when you look at him. He's not fat. He just doesn't have a lot of muscle definition. It's not unlikely that whoever drafts him will get him in the weight room, and the bidy profile will begin to be quite different in a year or two.

It may not be significant, but it could be.

There is a reason they measure body fat. There have been studies on professional athletes (and specifically basketball players) and it has shown the correlation between lower body fat and increased athletic performance. Also, carrying extra body fat means extra weight on the joints. And as you have pointed out, Kessler is a BIG guy and historically they have lower leg issues. Increased weight only increases those chances, and increased "bad weight" (fat not muscle) only does so further. 

Kessler could come in and absolutely change his diet, exercise, etc., and make his body much leaner. But the reality is that if he is carrying that body weight now at such a young age, he WILL be predisposed to continue to carry that weight and even put more on. 

The body fat thing is by no means the biggest factor in evaluating him (not even close), but it is a factor I take into account.

I also do not consider him to be "mobile." He shows some straight line mobility, but his lateral quickness and change of direction is not good IMO, much worse than Koloko IMO.

[hakeemfaan]

Kessler hand measurements…is that accurate?  Seems extremely small for a center.

[Kammrath]

Kessler hand measurements…is that accurate?  Seems extremely small for a center.

From the official NBA combine database:



It IS extremely small. It makes me nervous about his finishing in traffic among other things. 


Here is the other end of the database:

[hakeemfaan]

More than the body fat the palm size concerns me. Even guards have relatively big mits these days

[Kammrath]

More than the body fat the palm size concerns me. Even guards have relatively big mits these days

Absolutely. Hand size can be a significant factor in NBA success at times. Kawhi would not be the player he is without his 11.25" width hands.

[KillerLeft]

Absolutely. Hand size can be a significant factor in NBA success at times. Kawhi would not be the player he is without his 11.25" width hands.

Yes. Of all possible offensive skills, I'd say "catching the ball" is most important for centers, especially on a pick-and-roll team with a guy like Luka. 

Side note: I've never understood how Powell's hands can be so great on offense and so poor as a defensive rebounder. It's quite frustrating.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/_TradeDeadline/statu...8449573891

[VintagePejav2]

FWIW, the June 9 consensus mock has Hardy at #23 and Kendall at #26....

Kendall Brown is just an athlete at this point. Reminds me of Josh Green quite a bit. Awesome leaping ability. Decent wingspan. But.. his jumpshot needs a lot of work and he appears afraid to shoot. I’m not particularly interested in that kind of project again.

[Winter]

Kendall Brown is just an athlete at this point. Reminds me of Josh Green quite a bit. Awesome leaping ability. Decent wingspan. But.. his jumpshot needs a lot of work and he appears afraid to shoot. I’m not particularly interested in that kind of project again.

I totally agree with this. He may actually be marginally better than Green on defense, but that's nearly the same player.

[Kammrath]

I totally agree with this. He may actually be marginally better than Green on defense, but that's nearly the same player.

Disagree. JG couldn't finish in college and has struggled in the NBA. Kendall is an ELITE finisher at the rim. JG also has guard size and length, whereas Kendall has wing size and length.

Kendall is more like an athletic DFS (thinking DFS as a 19 year old).

[hakeemfaan]

It is hard to gauge anyone in the draft especially this low, but I will go with what Kamm is saying. Kendall is finishing through some tough contact in there.  Plus unlike DFS you can see Brown handling the ball from half court and taking it to the rim. The only reason I rated Dalen Terry higher was that Terry’s ability to pass while driving is something I feel can really open up our offense.  However again all these guys have warts and that’s why they are slated where they are. The key is who you believe can continue to grow. That is why Nico gets paid the big bucks. 

The one who is really standing out as a wow factor for me is John Butler. That size and ability to shoot and create his own shot.  He is currently ranked to go a few spots below where the Mavs pick. I know he is more raw than all the players we have talked about and legs like that are always concerning. You could be the next Durant or the next Porzingis in terms of frailty. But wow. I am drawn to that ability for that size

[VintagePejav2]

Teams simply won’t guard Kendall Brown on the perimeter, and his best “skills” which are cutting and finishing at the rim will be negated by NBA defenses. His shot might need even more work than Green’s. They have similar physical profiles, Brown is a tad bit bigger and longer.

Jalen Williams, Jake LaRavia, Marjon Beauchamp, and Wendell Moore are all players I’d rather take a chance on than Kendall Brown.

[Chicagojk]

Pure conjecture on my part, but I find the Shaedon Sharpe speculation fascinating.  I have only watched his last season high school highlights and they are pretty impressive.  But that was over a year and a half ago.  I haven't spent much time on the drafts top prospects, but if I was a consistent lottery team he would high on my priority list.  For instance, if I am Detroit.   I really like Dyson Daniels and Keegan Murray has a lot fans but Sharpe would be above Maturin and Johnny Davis for me.  Maybe even Daniels and Murray too.   I just think if you are Detroit or Indiana of the worlds, I would prefer swinging for the fences.  

I also find it intriguing there are rumors Toronto would listen to offers for OG.   Everyone is looking for wings now and OG fits that prototype.  He is good.   But Toronto has two guys better than OG.   They are a little thin at center.  Would they look to move OG for a lottery pick for Duren from Memphis?   That would make them even a younger, more athletic, and a beast of a team to play against.  I could totally see Toronto going down that route.   Not sure if that is their plan, but something I could see them considering.   

Oklahoma City will also be fascinating.   Do they package 12, 30 and a few future picks to move up 5-6 picks for a guy like Sharpe?  Quite a haul if they left the draft with Chet and Sharpe.....the top rated guys in their classes.   I think they move from being a collector of picks to a team looking to get guys they want now.

---

With Dallas, something to consider is some of these prospects in our range are best in a fast pace style.   They are at their best when the game is fast paced.   Luka likes to play at a slower pace.  If we plan to play that same type of style, we should factor that in when looking at prospects.

[Chicagojk]

My question to you: Do you like Kessler better than Koloko? If so, why?


My issues with Kessler: 

1) Kessler has SMALL hands (8.5"), the 2nd smallest hands in the whole combine (!).

2) Kessler has a lot of body fat (14.7%), the 2nd most in the whole combine. I think this bodes poorly for his future outlook on avoiding lower body injuries (knees, ankles, and feet).

3) Kessler refused to do athletic testing...and would have tested poorly if he did IMO.

4) Kessler shot 59.6% on free throws which means the likelihood of him adding a three ball is very low (Koloko shot 73.5% by comparison).



I 100% agree with you there is a market inefficiency. I am 100% open to the Mavs getting a more traditional center in the draft, especially if all the good wing options are gone.

You know, I am really not sure.  I am sort of surprised that there now appears to be a gap in rankings between Kessler and Koloko now in the sites I monitor.    I like Koloko's touch in his highlights.   He is still really raw in that part of his game but I see some traits where he may be more than just a dunker in time.    

I am really impressed with Kessler's ability to block with his left hand.  It appears to be his preferred hand to block shots.   I do wonder if his movement can be similar to Myles Turner or Poetl.   My only trouble is when I watch games like last night and try to picture these draft candidates playing in that game.  It is probably my biggest drawback when thinking about Kessler.  How does he handle when Tatum and Brown try to get him switched on him every time down the floor?  Can he do that?   Or do you play drop coverage?   I wish there were some workout videos of him online.  I take them with a grain of salt, but it is something I like to watch.  Especially when I have just highlights to go off on.

[Winter]

Teams simply won’t guard Kendall Brown on the perimeter, and his best “skills” which are cutting and finishing at the rim will be negated by NBA defenses. His shot might need even more work than Green’s. They have similar physical profiles, Brown is a tad bit bigger and longer.

Agree. If he can't shoot from the perimeter yet, then he remains a "potential" rotation player. A lot of wings in the draft can "finish at the rim," like Brown, but about half of them can't shoot well from the perimeter. Please give me one who can. 

All year many people on this board said the same thing about Green. "He's young. He's only 21." Well I would rather not replay all that in the 2022-23 season for a 19 year-old Kendall Brown.

[hakeemfaan]

Teams simply won’t guard Kendall Brown on the perimeter, and his best “skills” which are cutting and finishing at the rim will be negated by NBA defenses. His shot might need even more work than Green’s. They have similar physical profiles, Brown is a tad bit bigger and longer.

Jalen Williams, Jake LaRavia, Marjon Beauchamp, and Wendell Moore are all players I’d rather take a chance on than Kendall Brown.

If only things were that easy to gauge. You could be right but none of us know. Green and Thybulle are almost the same size physically and have similar athleticism but one is a much better defender. Smart is smaller than both and a better defender.  Draymond shot has been broke for a while now. Yet he is a valuable contributor. 

On the offensive end, someone like JJB should not have been better than RoddyB. Yet he was. Both has similar iffy jumpers and you can say RoddyB injuries caught up to him. The real differnce is that JJJB always processed things a split second earlier and made quick decisions. There was no hesitation. 

Where I am going is that you cannot just look at players with similar sizes.  Yes having certain deficiencies mean that you will never be great but a lot of players have had long solid careers though they never were stars  The key to last in the NBA seems to be self confidence and that ability to read things a split second earlier than the guy who doesn’t last long in the league despite all the comparable physical measurables.

[KillerLeft]

Agree. If he can't shoot from the perimeter yet, then he remains a "potential" rotation player who is useless for extended minutes. A lot of wings in the draft can "finish at the rim" like Brown, but about half of them can't shoot well from the perimeter. Please give me one who can. 

All year people on this board said the same thing about Green. "He's young. He's only 21." Well I would rather not replay all that in the 2022-23 season for a 19 year-old Kendall Brown.

Is there ANYONE potentially available at 26 who won’t be a project, to a certain point? 

This is why I think the pick will be made for another team on draft night, personally.