2022 NBA Draft: #37 Jaden Hardy (6' 3", 6' 9" WS) to DAL | two 2nds to SAC

[Kammrath]

Read and listened to a couple of analysis. They give a wide range of comparisations. Bad John Jenkins. Low Dion Waiters. Good Jordan Clarkson. Great D´Angelo Russell.
Last one is interesting because the physical measurements are almost identical. And I also the play style. Both relying heavily on their outside shot. With 3PAr in the high 0.40s or 0.50s. Both with a mediocre first step. Leading to a low volume of drives and shots at the rim. Also mediocre/bad percentages in the paint.
I think Beal is a way better athlet than both.

Beal is absolutely a better athlete than Hardy, I just was thinking build wise he is eerily similar. 

Great call on the D'Angelo comp. I hated D'Angelo out of college and thought he would be a total bust (maybe you remember me ranting about it when people wanted him in DAL), mostly because of his terrible athleticism and D. He totally proved me wrong by at least being a decent NBA player. Russell is probably the best case scenario like you said (and like I was tryign to say above...I wasn't saying Hardy's best case was Beal, but just a player who is poor on D and potent on O).

[Kammrath]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYExZUggS3c

[Mavs2021]

Read and listened to a couple of analysis. They give a wide range of comparisations. Bad John Jenkins. Low Dion Waiters. Good Jordan Clarkson. Great D´Angelo Russell.
Last one is interesting because the physical measurements are almost identical. And I can also see the play style. Both relying heavily on their outside shot. With 3PAr in the high 0.40s or 0.50s. Both with a mediocre first step. Leading to a low volume of drives and shots at the rim. Also mediocre/bad percentages in the paint.
I think Beal is a way better athlet than both.

The real problem with players finishing at the rim is strength, body control and touch. It´s not size exclusively. JJB could finish plays while flying clotheslined by seven foot scumbags. Others take minimal contact/distractions and their lay-up attempts fly into the 1st row (Green/Ntilikina). That´s the problem I see with Hardy´s finishing.

[dirkfansince1998]

The real problem with players finishing at the rim is strength, body control and touch. It´s not size exclusively. JJB could finish plays while flying clotheslined by seven foot scumbags. Others take minimal contact/distractions and their lay-up attempts fly into the 1st row (Green/Ntilikina). That´s the problem I see with Hardy´s finishing.

Agree. But as mentioned. I think that is only one part. Problem one. He cannot get to the rim. Problem two. He lacks touch around the rim.

[Dundalis]

If our defense suffers because he's on the court than is he our best big?  We had no problem playing Maxi huge minutes in the playoffs despite Powell starting all year.

It's an interesting take and I guess I can understand why people would consider Brunson a liability but I certainly didn't see that last year.  To say that Brunson was exploited on BOTH ends of the court during the playoffs though is definitely strange to me because it was clearly the best ball he's played his whole career and there's a very strong chance he's the only reason we got out of the first round.  Just out of curiosity, did you think our defense wasn't good enough last year?  Who is the ideal player you want next to Luka because it's not like Jrue Holidays grow on trees.

I'm with you that I hope Brunson's contract is reasonable but I disagree that Brunson's defense holds us back from being a true contender.

I think Brunson is predictable offensively, predominantly because he has no pull up 3 in his arsenal, and he still struggles a lot against length. He was very inconsistent offensively. That it was the best he's played in his whole career is irrelevant, Im not comparing him to his previous play, I'm comparing to what ideally you would have next to Luka. I would be fine with an inconsistent offensive player if they were a lockdown defender.

That's literally what I'd want next to Luka. Someone well above average defensively with length. They wouldn't even have to be as good on offense as Brunson. I'd prefer 3 positive defenders in the starting unit with Luka.

If Wood doesn't work out and we are reducing his minutes in favor of Maxi, then we are likely mostly in the same situation we were in last season, but probably with a Western conference that is much healthier than it was. Meaning we probably aren't in the mix at all.

[Chicagojk]

I probably should not have referenced Beal.   It is unfair.  I just see a tad in him getting to his jumper.  I tersti g to see him in summer league.

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/exiting-...aden-hardy

[Kammrath]

Thanks for the article above on Hardy. 

Couple thoughts:

1) My biggest concern is still his athleticism. But I can see that in the GLeague being outmatched athletically would be common place as the GLeague might be the most athletic league in the world. I just saw a lot of film of him being smothered in the lane and at the rim. Credit to him for getting into the lane more than I thought he would, but what often happened there was not pretty. 

2) Additionally, the GLeague is kind of chaotic as well. The discipline and spacing and organization of teams is significantly lower than in the NBA. This makes things hard to evaluate IMO.

Point being, I have zero experience trying to evaluate guys coming from the GLeague (never done it before taking time now to look at Hardy), so I want to be clear on my limitations on that front.

[Winter]

Point being, I have zero experience trying to evaluate guys coming from the GLeague (never done it before taking time now to look at Hardy), so I want to be clear on my limitations on that front.

Most everything I see makes me think he needs good coaching - mainly because of his poor decisions about how to read the defense. But sometimes it's hard to tell if a player can really fix his own bad habits.

The most encouraging thing I heard Nico say was that he was so willing to learn and get better.

[hakeemfaan]

The most interesting things from Nico to me on Hardy:

1) They massively valued the fact that he struggled and didn't quit and kept growing to figure out how to be a better player in the GLeague context. This is an intangible thing that is really, really important to NBA success.

2) They massively valued the fact that he was the alpha dog on that G League ignite team and that even the vets would look to him and give him the ball. 

I very much agree with these two things and it makes me much more optimistic about this pick and also Nico's draft team.

Couple of other things:

He was playing against older folks who are genuinely fighting to get a chance and good enough to make the G League, as opposed to most college players who are playing against kids their age, many of whom will never make the G League. 

G League is not as glamorous or cushy a life as a major college program where the players, especially the top dogs like Hardy would have been, are pampered and treated like royalty. 

So the fact that he fought through and kept improving definitely says something about his work ethic and mental makeup.

[SleepingHero]

I didn't want to clutter the bigger post by naming a name, but for fun let's fill in Gobert (you can fill in whatever name you wish).  The deal is:

What about a 3-team trade with the Spurs where the Mavs end up with Dejounte Murray. 

2 picks from NY heads to San Antonio, Mavs send 1 of their own along with some filler like Powell. 

Mavs get Murray

Knicks get Brunson. 

Is this even legal?
What about D'Angelo Russell? Seeing all those former tweets, then the Wolves are practically begging someone to take Russell off their hands. I don't think he's a bad player, and he's a bigger guard as well.
EDIT:

Just realized I was in the draft thread...

IN any case I'm sticking with Hardy. I think he can be a valued contributor in a couple of years if he fixes his decision making and defense.

[Mavsfan12]

What about a 3-team trade with the Spurs where the Mavs end up with Dejounte Murray. 

2 picks from NY heads to San Antonio, Mavs send 1 of their own along with some filler like Powell. 

Mavs get Murray

Knicks get Brunson. 

Is this even legal?

For this team, as constructed, I would trade JB and the contract he is about to sign for Murray and his contract.  No doubt. He makes a lot of sense with THJ still here and gives us a defensive presence at the point of attack, which makes our defensive issues at the rim less of a problem.

[KillerLeft]

There seem to be quite a few NBA players who are behind this Hardy kid. He seems to be in the "hooper" inner circle already, at least on a neophyte level. And when I watch him play, it's undeniable that his game is VERY polished. 

I'm liking this pick more and more every day. If he's DLo, Poole, Clarkson, whomever, and they got him at 37? That's a nice bit of business. 

The only thing I dislike is that he's a Klutch client. I really wouldn't want to give those guys access to Luka or anyone in the locker room, honestly.

[Dirknows]

They took a swing on a talented player. If it doesn’t work out they didn’t give up much, but at least Nico is bringing in more talent, which the Mavs need.

[SleepingHero]

The only thing I dislike is that he's a Klutch client. I really wouldn't want to give those guys access to Luka or anyone in the locker room, honestly.

Only thing you have to be worried about with Klutch clients are the stars. See: Noel, Nerlens. 

They don't care about anyone that isn't a big deal. Should Hardy show up and become a big deal then yes, I agree I hate that he's apart of Klutch. BUT right now he's a small fish in a big pond and I'm pretty sure his agency doesn't even know he exists.

[DanSchwartzgan]

What about a 3-team trade with the Spurs where the Mavs end up with Dejounte Murray. 

2 picks from NY heads to San Antonio, Mavs send 1 of their own along with some filler like Powell. 

Mavs get Murray

Knicks get Brunson. 

Is this even legal? 

If Brunson signs for $25mm and we are permitted to make this a S&T, then he counts as $12.5mm going out.  That isn't quite enough to match Murray at 125%, but you could add Green and easily get there.

The bigger issue is where all the picks are coming from.  NY can easily do this without us and as Omahen has pointed out, there is a world in which we have to pay something to even get a TPE.  The only I see that we get even a single pick from NY (preferably our own) is if it will cost them something to drop the final $10mm needed for Brunson.  If some cap team would take Burks or Noel with no compensation returning, then we are screwed.  If it is going to cost NY a pick to dump Burks or Noel, then just as easy to give us the pick to take a $10mm player from NY than to find a third team.

If Brunson walks, I see the following scenarios as possible:

1. NY says they will agree to a S&T where we take Noel and get our first back

2. NY says take the protection off of the Dallas 2023 pick and they will allow us to have a $25mm TPE

3. Dallas says screw you and we lose Brunson for nothing

[Mavs2021]

I think what the Mavs see in Hardy is this: Good spot up/open 3pt shooter. Good FT shooter. If you can eliminate his dumb shot selection, his jumpshot seems failr reliable at the current level. Disclaimer DoJo was a goat shooter at this level. Then you look at his dribbling/attacking skills. They are not spectacular, but with Luka´s gravity all he really needs to do is go by a late rotation for a straight line drive to the rim. His handling skills should be more than sufficient for that.

I think that´s what the Mavs project he can become. If it turns into something more, then party on.

[KillerLeft]

I think what the Mavs see in Hardy is this: Good spot up/open 3pt shooter. Good FT shooter.

I think this is true, but I think they're likely ALSO enamored with his bevy of 1-on-1 dribble moves that have him easily creating space for himself to get pull-up jumpers off.

---

1. NY says they will agree to a S&T where we take Noel and get our first back

I don't think this is possible anymore. 

I'm not 100% sure, but I believe one of the deals they made on draft night offered a team "the most favorable" between that Dallas pick and one they possess from the Bulls.

[SleepingHero]

The bigger issue is where all the picks are coming from.  NY can easily do this without us and as Omahen has pointed out, there is a world in which we have to pay something to even get a TPE.  The only I see that we get even a single pick from NY (preferably our own) is if it will cost them something to drop the final $10mm needed for Brunson.  If some cap team would take Burks or Noel with no compensation returning, then we are screwed.  If it is going to cost NY a pick to dump Burks or Noel, then just as easy to give us the pick to take a $10mm player from NY than to find a third team.

Thanks for replying and working out the money. I'm operating under the assumption that cap space is an extreme luxury, and that teams aren't going to want to just give it away. We saw how expensive it was for NYK to dump Kemba on draft night and he was only 9 mil. 1 lotto pick and 4 2nd rounders is prohibitively expensive to dump an expiring.

SO in my mind if that's what it costs to just dump 1 contract, I assume the Mavs can go to NYK and spin it like:
1 FRP for Brunson, 1 FRP for the salary dump. Otherwise go find someone else to take your trash. 

Even still I like the Murray idea. I don't think he'd cost 3 firsts as thats incredibly expensive, but maybe 2 firsts and a 2nd? I'd do that all day. 

I'd also am starting to warm up to the idea of D'Angelo Russell as a reclamation project. His defense got a lot better this year and he's been a pretty good shooter for most of his career.

[omahen]

1 lotto pick and 4 2nd rounders is prohibitively expensive to dump an expiring.

It was actually the 4 2nd rounders. Knicks paid 1FRP and 4 SRP for the lotto pick to Charlotte. This pick was sent with Kemba to Detroit for a FRP. So net difference is 4 SRP

[SleepingHero]

This pick was sent with Kemba to Detroit for a FRP

The pick they got was a heavily protected pick from MIL in 2025. So basically a late 1st. Not the same value at all.

Point is, dumping money is going to be expensive. It's going to cost a lot of capital. Mavs pitch to the Knicks can just be "hey we're a 1 stop shop. If you want Brunson this badly we'll make it happen, just give us 2 firsts"