2022 NBA Draft: #37 Jaden Hardy (6' 3", 6' 9" WS) to DAL | two 2nds to SAC

[Winter]

Since J. Hardy was expected to go in the late 20's in the first round, I'm guessing the Mavs have him pretty well scouted.

From all I can tell, Hardy has a long history of scoring points wherever he plays. He averaged 30 ppg in high school and had offers from several big universities like Duke. But instead of college, he decided on G League.

[loki]

I don't know what they intend to do with Hardy contract wise. If they use part of the taxpayer mid level, my only request is that they don't give him a guaranteed 3rd year.

[MAVS-SLO]

If someone after the end of the season offered you a starting caliber center & top 5 recruit from high school in a draft i think everyone would sign this.

And we got this without giving particuraly nothing.

I already wrote about Hardy as an first option at the 26. His scoring potential is enormus and in the Kidd system and Mavs culture i think it will work perfectly fine.

And also, after the trade he got a new comparison. ''The last time Kings trade their 37 pick it was GTJ''.

With this draft i think all options of Dragic to Dallas falls away.

Next priority is resigning a Brunson and then looking for a  big forward (3-4) for MLE, but for now Nico did A+ job in the offseason.

[SleepingHero]

I'm reading this a second time now ... If i'm Brunson, i'd be pissed with that counter-offer because you are questioning his math skills. 

The counter to trump 4/100 is at least 5/125 with last year as PO.

I mean I understand the 5/115 has a lower average yearly salary, but it still has an extra year and 15 more million over the life of the contract. 5/125 is a lot for Brunson. The Knicks aren't even at the point where they can offer that to him. But even if they should get that space, are we really sure the Knicks are going to massively overpay? They're going to have to find someone to take on Fournier/Randle for air, or lose another 2-4 guys for air to get even close to that 25 million number.

[SleepingHero]

We need to log this one away as....

@"Chicagojk" & @"SleepingHero"

VERSUS

@"dirkfansince1998" & @"Kammrath"

One of our evaluation reputations will take a big hit and one of our evaluation reputations will get a huge boost based on how this turns out.

HA! 

Bring it on! I will say though, Hardy was like my 6th realistic choice behind all the centers, Ochai Agbaji, Sochan, and Jovic, so I will preface my bet on Hardy with that.

I'm excited to see his summer league and hope he shows out.

[Winter]

I think you have to watch the G-league with a really disciplined eye.

Well that pretty much eliminates me.

[hakeemfaan]

Well that pretty much eliminates me.

That would eliminate most of us 

[ThisIStheYear]

Again.  He’s the steal of the draft and who the Mavs would have taken at 26 anyways. Essentially, the Mavs have now truly acquired Wood for a garage sale of assets.  He was basically free.

[hakeemfaan]

https://www.dmagazine.com/sports/2022/06...ep-making/

[DanSchwartzgan]

FWIW, a few thoughts on the night...

I won't pretend I was a Hardy advocate.  I ignored him even though he was mocked in the general area of the Mav's pick because I didn't see that he fit a positional need.  With that said, I like the way this played out:

1. Since it could have been justified to take him at 26, we essentially got Wood for free.

2. We all hoped entering the night the team would "do something" to land a pick.  They did.

3. The place I think NBA teams mess up projections is when they try to project a "no-tool" player "might" develop into a "five-tool" player (baseball analogy).  I've seen much more success where teams take someone with a single NBA skill (often defense or shooting) and hope they can train the player up to adequate in other areas.  If the vision here is DSJ with longer arms, I suspect this will fail.  If the idea is that Hardy can be an off ball shooter with some ability to be a secondary creator off the bench, then this has a chance of working.  I think there is an NBA 3 point shot there (I don't really care what happened in 12 G-League games where he was trying to be the star).  The key is limiting Hardy to the proper role and letting him do more of what he can be good at and less of what he isn't good at (but work at getting better at those things over time)

4.  Summer League just got a little more interesting.

5.  Seemed a bit of a Rashard Lewis moment last night.  Is there anyone in the draft who will come into the NBA with a bigger chip on his shoulder?  I'm actually more interested in Hardy's resilience than I am just about anything else.  I don't have a clue what he has between his ears, but I suspect it is the key to this pick working or not. 

On to Brunson...

Because I talk about it a lot, some here take the lazy position of painting me as anti-Brunson or an advocate of trading Brunson.  We spend a lot of time thinking through roster construction here.  Seems kind of stupid to not at least think through how BYC might be overcome and what a S&T with NY might look like.  I think it wise to also consider how we might move forward IF Brunson were to leave.  There is a point where this gets to be ridiculously expensive and I wouldn't probably roast the team for not paying up.  The question, if it happens, will be how do they recover from such a loss.

BTW, where are the people who told me it was going to be really tough for NY to dump salary.  With FIVE picks in the 2023 draft and only the need to drop either Noel or Burks to get to $25mm in space, NY can fall out of bed and have the space to pull this off.  

The thing I mainly want to point out here is NY has put themselves in position to make it much easier to do a S&T with Dallas.  BYC won't be an issue any longer and Dallas doesn't have to take back a bunch of salary they don't want.  This could literally be as simple as Burks (or Noel), the Dallas 23 and MAYBE one of the picks NY received last night.  Here is my question then.  Is a starting lineup that includes Burks/Wood really much worse than one that includes Brunson/Powell instead?  From a tax standpoint Burks would cost maybe $15mm less than Brunson (that is a bunch of tax savings).  But, that isn't where the roster moves would end.  We would potentially have two 23 picks, 25 and 27 and some mid-sized contracts to go star shopping with.  Whether now, the TDL or next draft, that would be enough ammunition to do something significant.

I think the odds are still higher that Brunson stays than leaves, but it isn't in our control.  The biggest question to me is what does the bounce back from such an event look like and can we stay competitive if that were to happen.

[cow]

We need to log this one away as....

@"Chicagojk" & @"SleepingHero"

VERSUS

@"dirkfansince1998" & @"Kammrath"

One of our evaluation reputations will take a big hit and one of our evaluation reputations will get a huge boost based on how this turns out.

Let's just settle it now with a fight to death.  I've got a bat and a knife.  Flip a coin for who picks their weapon of choice.

[juanc]

Here's what I wrote on Hardy 2 months ago

Jaden Hardy - For some time I have been realy down on Hardy, but after watching more tape on him,I changed my mind... He is just to skilled to not make it. He is great at creating his own shot, at getting seperation, but the shot just won't fall in. But I think that changes with repetition. Don't really see him being a great star in the league, but a 6thMOY candidate(ala Clarkson). One thing that bothers me is his finishing at the rim, where he wasn't exactly the greatest, and he also isn't a great athlete, but as I mentioned earlier, just to crafty and skilled to not make it IMO.

If he would end up on the Mavs I fear that it would be hard for him to get minutes.

I am stoked the Mavs got Hardy at pick 37!

[KillerLeft]

So, they got the guy who was 19th on their board. This makes me feel like he might have been the pick at 26, had there been no Wood trade. They got a great deal done with the pick for an immediate contributor, traded back in and got their guy at 37. That's a pretty nice week of work, imo. 

The evaluation leading to having the kid at 19...who knows? Some of you don't like it, some of you are more hopeful, but you can't say they didn't have a planned approach with end goals in mind. 

My only complaint, and it is veeerrrrry minor, is that Cuban seems to value $2 million more than a future 2nd. I mean, I get it - he's about to write a huge luxury tax check this year, for the first time in a long, long time. But, I do think this should be kind of an indicator of some things. I predict:

No TP MLE this season.
The team will take evasive maneuvers not to be a tax payer next year, and this might involve a move or two that we don't care for much around here.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Cuban seems to value $2 million more than a future 2nd

I think this is a fair take but I also think that maybe he just looks at 2nd as easy to acquire.  He probably sees is as "well if this second only cost me two future seconds then next year if there's not someone we like in the second round then we can just flip it for two down the road to replace those".  Not saying that is something that I agree with but just kind of playing devil's advocate there.

[KillerLeft]

I think this is a fair take but I also think that maybe he just looks at 2nd as easy to acquire.  He probably sees is as "well if this second only cost me two future seconds then next year if there's not someone we like in the second round then we can just flip it for two down the road to replace those".  Not saying that is something that I agree with but just kind of playing devil's advocate there.

@"Arioch" (I think) made this point last night, and I agree with it. 

BUT, Cuban probably won't "buy" a 2nd rounder in the future. Sure, he can, but he won't. He MIGHT allow the team to trade a 2nd rounder (the next time they have one) for multiple even more future 2nds, but they don't ever seem to do that, either.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
The thing I mainly want to point out here is NY has put themselves in position to make it much easier to do a S&T with Dallas.  BYC won't be an issue any longer and Dallas doesn't have to take back a bunch of salary they don't want.  This could literally be as simple as Burks (or Noel), the Dallas 23 and MAYBE one of the picks NY received last night.   

I didn't want to clutter the bigger post by naming a name, but for fun let's fill in Gobert (you can fill in whatever name you wish).  The deal is:

Brunson to NY for Burks and 23 (note Brunson is going into $16mm of cap space net of the Burks contract which defeats BYC.  This is important)

Powell/Green Dallas 23 and 25 to Utah for Gobert (note how little salary has to go to Utah).

Dallas gets Gobert/Burks for Brunson/Powell/Green and 25.  This isn't designed to be equal value.  Brunson left.  This is taking advantage of that fact and trying to turn lemons into lemonade.  

Dallas gets to count the Brunson outgoing along with expiring Powell and Green.  Because of this, Utah doesn't have to take on much money and isn't taking on any money past 22/23 if they don't want to.  Utah can sell their fans on the fact they got a recent #1 in Green plus two future firsts.  Powell is a stop gap center for now.

NY gets their guy and still has a ton of draft capital to play with.

Dallas loses a favorite son, but between Dragic and Burks can replace much of what Brunson provided.  In addition, the front court is now Gobert/Wood...a pretty dramatic improvement both offensively and defensively.

Gobert
          Maxi         
Wood

DFS    THJ          
          
Burks  Bullock               
         
Luka   Dinwiddie

[Arioch]

@"Arioch" (I think) made this point last night, and I agree with it. 

BUT, Cuban probably won't "buy" a 2nd rounder in the future. Sure, he can, but he won't. He MIGHT allow the team to trade a 2nd rounder (the next time they have one) for multiple even more future 2nds, but they don't ever seem to do that, either.

I know Cuban has history, and as the guy who ultimately signs the checks, the terms of this deal might be 100% his. But I am absolutely certain Nico was fully on board with it and was advising exactly this deal if Hardy was indeed #19 on their board.

I spend my days neck-deep in the P&L reports for a Fortune 500 company. In a scenario where "we want X. We have 2 options to get it, option 1) we pay $3Million for it now, option 2) we pay 'future considerations' now, and if we want more X in the future we can always pay $3Million then", corporate executives are going to go with option 2 100 times out of 100. It's Balance Sheet Management 101.

[F Gump]

I didn't want to clutter the bigger post by naming a name, but for fun let's fill in Gobert (you can fill in whatever name you wish).  The deal is:

Brunson to NY for Burks and 23 (note Brunson is going into $16mm of cap space net of the Burks contract which defeats BYC.  This is important)

Powell/Green Dallas 23 and 25 to Utah for Gobert (note how little salary has to go to Utah).

Dallas gets Gobert/Burks for Brunson/Powell/Green and 25.  

BYC doesn't work like that. That deal is not close to legal.

Gobert/Burks is 48.2
Brunson/Powell/Green is maybe 25 or so

As an aside, I think the Gobert/Mavs idea is dead anyhow. I think the Mavs interest was predicated on the idea UT was wanting to move him, period, and might lack interest on a contract that big -- but when the conversation turned to big values and teams competing to get him, with expectations of highly prized players and picks in return, they stepped out of the conversation.

[KillerLeft]

I spend my days neck-deep in the P&L reports for a Fortune 500 company. In a scenario where "we want X. We have 2 options to get it, option 1) we pay $3Million for it now, option 2) we pay 'future considerations' now, and if we want more X in the future we can always pay $3Million then", corporate executives are going to go with option 2 100 times out of 100. It's Balance Sheet Management 101.

Yes, I have absolutely no issue with this logic and completely agree. 

What I'm saying is that I believe there is a 0% chance Cuban will ever again write a $2 million check for a draft pick (he used to do it often) because:

A) he's on record as being really ashamed that he lost $100 million on the Mavs during his first decade owning the team.

B) he's on record saying he didn't think the owners got the job done to his satisfaction during the 2011 negotiations, and this will be the very first time since then that he has ever paid any luxury tax. How much he'll pay remains to be seen, and my bet is that it will be the smallest amount of tax he thinks he can get away with (the idea that he has a ceiling in mind for his Brunson offer is the only thing that gives me any worry there). I believe that when the 2011 CBA happened he made a decision to do business in a new way that doesn't allow for throwing money around, even when it might make a little sense. 

C) It doesn't appear that he thinks very much of draft picks to begin with - he hasn't for a LONG time. Now, you can convince me that Harrison and other new blood might be attempting to change that thinking, but I don't think the organization's approach (for which Cuban is the bottom line) is going to do a 180º turn overnight. 

I'm not saying that the wrong decision (2 2nds instead of 1 pick+$2 million) was made, I'm simply saying that everyone thrilled with this effort to get into the 2nd might just be kicking their disappointment can down the road without realizing it. People who place a high value on that future 2nd (the extra one) shouldn't assume, imo, that the situation will be fixed with cash just because it can be.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

https://theathletic.com/3381739/2022/06/...urce=nbatw