2022 NBA Draft: #37 Jaden Hardy (6' 3", 6' 9" WS) to DAL | two 2nds to SAC

[Mavs2021]

It´s so fascinating to me, how Mavs fans always look to give up assets for players that they could literally have had for free for the last five years. The point is to find the next Richaun Holmes before he got paid and developed some reputation.

Richaun Holmes was the 37th pick once upon a time. Christian Wood was undrafted and bounced around like 12 teams, the Mavs included.

Why are we always looking to give up 1st round picks and assets for players that are available every summer?

That´s just lazy scouting that leads to a messy cap situation like ours.

Holmes is 29 year old averaging 10/7/1. That´s his peak. That´s his prime.

Why do we need to trade for him, when we have/had much younger options available in free agency/trades that are already or will be better than him within the next 12-24 months?

Heck there might be one on the Kings: Damian Jones.

He´s an UFA C, who is 26 years and started 15 games for the Kings last year.

In those 15 games the Kings went 6-9, he played 28 MPG, averaged 14/6/2, shooting 73/33/73.

You want Richaun Holmes from the Kings. There he is.

Doesn´t cost you a first round pick. Probably will not even cost the full TP-MLE.

Around the fringes of the rotation it´s about finding the nobody Richaun Holmes was, not the somebody he is.

[DanSchwartzgan]

It´s so fascinating to me, how Mavs fans always look to give up assets for players that they could literally have had for free for the last five years. The point is to find the next Richaun Holmes before he got paid and developed some reputation.

Richaun Holmes was the 37th pick once upon a time. Christian Wood was undrafted and bounced around like 12 teams, the Mavs included.

Why are we always looking to give up 1st round picks and assets for players that are available every summer?

That´s just lazy scouting that leads to a messy cap situation like ours.

Holmes is 29 year old averaging 10/7/1. That´s his peak. That´s his prime.

Why do we need to trade for him, when we have/had much younger options available in free agency/trades that are already or will be better than him within the next 12-24 months?

Heck there might be one on the Kings: Damian Jones.

He´s an UFA C, who is 26 years and started 15 games for the Kings last year.

In those 15 games the Kings went 6-9, he played 28 MPG, averaged 14/6/2, shooting 73/33/73.

You want Richaun Holmes from the Kings. There he is.

Doesn´t cost you a first round pick. Probably will not even cost the full TP-MLE.

Around the fringes of the rotation it´s about finding the nobody Richaun Holmes was, not the somebody he is.

Sorry to do this in the draft thread, but peak Holmes was in 20/21, not last season.  He had an EPM of 93 was in the 90th percentile of Block%, 87th percentile in DR% and 96th percentile in TS%.  Damian Jones has a negative EPM every single year of his career.  He's never once had a positive On-Off.  There is more to basketball than points and rebounds per game.  

The case for Holmes is very similar to the case for Dinwiddie (which so many here missed).  Dinwiddie was fantastic his final full pre-injury season in Brooklyn.  He didn't look like himself at all in DC, but largely returned to form once he got here.  Holmes put in three really nice seasons as a starter before last season.  Dallas might not be the best place for a guy with domestic violence charges hanging over his head, but he's miles better than Damian Jones or anyone we can get for the TP-MLE.

As to draft picks, a big man taken at 26 is years away from contributing to a serious playoff team.  The hit-rate in this area of the draft isn't high.  Yes, anyone can name names taken in this range or lower.  But what about all the misses.  No one ever names those names and there are MANY more of those.  If it weren't so, two former #8 picks in the draft wouldn't be sitting on our bench struggling to get minutes.

[loki]

Holmes put in three really nice seasons as a starter before last season.  Dallas might not be the best place for a guy with domestic violence charges hanging over his head, but he's miles better than Damian Jones or anyone we can get for the TP-MLE.

Holmes won sole custody of his son about a month ago, so it seems like that situation is resolved. I haven't heard of any criminal charges.

[omahen]

Holmes won sole custody of his son about a month ago, so it seems like that situation is resolved. I haven't heard of any criminal charges.

As far as I saw, he was in a bad custody fight and those charges didn't have anything real behind. As you said, it seems this thing is resolved now by him getting full custody.

[Mavs2021]

Sorry to do this in the draft thread, but peak Holmes was in 20/21, not last season.  He had an EPM of 93 was in the 90th percentile of Block%, 87th percentile in DR% and 96th percentile in TS%.  Damian Jones has a negative EPM every single year of his career.  He's never once had a positive On-Off.  There is more to basketball than points and rebounds per game.  

The case for Holmes is very similar to the case for Dinwiddie (which so many here missed).  Dinwiddie was fantastic his final full pre-injury season in Brooklyn.  He didn't look like himself at all in DC, but largely returned to form once he got here.  Holmes put in three really nice seasons as a starter before last season.  Dallas might not be the best place for a guy with domestic violence charges hanging over his head, but he's miles better than Damian Jones or anyone we can get for the TP-MLE.

As to draft picks, a big man taken at 26 is years away from contributing to a serious playoff team.  The hit-rate in this area of the draft isn't high.  Yes, anyone can name names taken in this range or lower.  But what about all the misses.  No one ever names those names and there are MANY more of those.  If it weren't so, two former #8 picks in the draft wouldn't be sitting on our bench struggling to get minutes.

How about all the misses, when the Mavs did trades? The Mavs probably haven´t won a trade since Tyson Chandler. They traded with the perceived dumbest FO in the Knicks and Kings and still lost the trades. So why do we mention the success rate of late 1st round picks all the time, but never mention the horrible track record of the Mavs trading, whenever somebody suggests a trade.

And I´m sorry Spencer Dinwiddie is not a trade success story. He´s a 14/4/2 guard making 18M. Barnes is a better player than him and he´s making 18M next year. Everybody slacked him of for being a mediocre nothing player.

[DanSchwartzgan]

So why do we mention the success rate of late 1st round picks all the time, but never mention the horrible track record of the Mavs trading, whenever somebody suggests a trade.

Because draft pick hit rates are a 32-team multi-decade sample size that has been the subject of numerous academic studies.  Maverick trade success is a single team highly subjective opinion with limited information available about what the goal of each trade was and what the realistic alternatives were.

But, other than that…

[omahen]

According to the piece below, Mavs met with (at least) following guys at the combine:

Patrick Baldwin Jr.
E.J.Liddell
MarJon Beauchamp
Wendell Moore Jr.
Josh Minott

2022 NBA Draft Combine: From Pablo Escobar to team interviews, and trade talk in between - The Athletic

[DanSchwartzgan]

I’d recommend the Saturday version of The NBA Podcast.  They did their post-mortem/look ahead on Dallas.  Mort Jensen is a pretty good NBA mind.  They deal with all of the usual suspects.

Biggest issue for Dallas is lack of two-way ability.  Role players are being asked to do too much, but would be fine if there was one more two-way talent to push the roles of these guys down a notch.  Positive mention of DFS.  Positive mention of Brunson, but the money may get to be too much (then what do you do if you are Dallas).  These are the guys who have said Luka may be good enough to be equivalent to a Batman and Robin.  Maybe you could build around him with role players (the right role players).  But, would be better to get a two-way talent.  They think Bertans may stick at least to the TDL.  Dallas may be able to find creative ways to get good things out of him.  Best to keep THJ to the TDL to get more value than he has currently.

LaVine isn’t a two-way, but he is SO good offensively.  May be the most efficient SG in the entire league next to Luka.  Extremely difficult to pull off.

Really shouldn’t have traded Barnes

As to the bigs and the need to upgrade center:

Gobert…No.  Would prefer younger/cheaper and more versatile.
Turner…They already tried this archetype.  His name was KP
Holmes…Depends on what Kings to at #4 in terms of what they want from Dallas.
Wood…Jensen likes him for Dallas.
Collins…He’s the guy.  This is the guy that best fits Luka, but what value to Atlanta?  They won’t take back THJ and probably want Maxi-plus in any deal.

Tobias…I mean, if you can’t do Holmes/Woods/Collins, They’d do some kind of THJ/Bertans for Tobias deal.

Would not go for Nic Clayton (predictable offensively).  Guys like that limit Luka.  Need someone who can Pop or Roll and can put the ball on the floor at least a little (attack off the catch).  That last point is why they like Wood and Collins and to a lesser extent Holmes (and don’t like some of the other bigs that get discussed here a lot.

[ItsGoTime]

Mark my words. If we get JC or Wood to play exclusively at C, they will be injured/tired come playoff time. Collins has always played next to a C, so to say he’s THE guy? No possible way anyone can know that. Wood is basically in the same boat, and he just looks tons more frail than JC.

I think both are perfect for the spot I talked about yesterday. Not so much an everyday C.

[ItsGoTime]

I’d recommend the Saturday version of The NBA Podcast.  They did their post-mortem/look ahead on Dallas.  Mort Jensen is a pretty good NBA mind.  They deal with all of the usual suspects.

Biggest issue for Dallas is lack of two-way ability.  Role players are being asked to do too much, but would be fine if there was one more two-way talent to push the roles of these guys down a notch.  Positive mention of DFS.  Positive mention of Brunson, but the money may get to be too much (then what do you do if you are Dallas).  These are the guys who have said Luka may be good enough to be equivalent to a Batman and Robin.  Maybe you could build around him with role players (the right role players).  But, would be better to get a two-way talent.  They think Bertans may stick at least to the TDL.  Dallas may be able to find creative ways to get good things out of him.  Best to keep THJ to the TDL to get more value than he has currently.

LaVine isn’t a two-way, but he is SO good offensively.  May be the most efficient SG in the entire league next to Luka.  Extremely difficult to pull off.

Eh, I’d prefer more defense from the position he would play. Our G rotation is lacking in D.

Really shouldn’t have traded Barnes

Yep, said exactly this yesterday. He would be so good on this team right now.

As to the bigs and the need to upgrade center:

Gobert…No.  Would prefer younger/cheaper and more versatile.
I’m good with this

Turner…They already tried this archetype.  His name was KP

This to me is an odd take. The archetype they tried in KP is as a star. Turner isn’t close to that (neither, really, was KP, but we know that’s what he thought of himself which is a HUGE difference between Turner and him). I mean, I think Maxi is closer to Turner’s archetype than KP.

Holmes…Depends on what Kings to at #4 in terms of what they want from Dallas.

I was totally in on him, then i wavered seeing he was the same size as Powell, now, I’m fine with him if we pick him up.

Wood…Jensen likes him for Dallas.

Great pickup as a big wing/C. Not great if exclusively C.

Collins…He’s the guy.  This is the guy that best fits Luka, but what value to Atlanta?  They won’t take back THJ and probably want Maxi-plus in any deal.

Same as Wood, in a better way.

Tobias…I mean, if you can’t do Holmes/Woods/Collins, They’d do some kind of THJ/Bertans for Tobias deal.

If Morey accepts that trade and none of the better options are actually better (Wood requires 2 future firsts not this years, Collins requires 2 high end contributors on top of picks) I would like this option.

Would not go for Nic Clayton (predictable offensively).  Guys like that limit Luka.  Need someone who can Pop or Roll and can put the ball on the floor at least a little (attack off the catch).  That last point is why they like Wood and Collins and to a lesser extent Holmes (and don’t like some of the other bigs that get discussed here a lot.

[dynamicalVoid]

Is drafting bball players too much of an ask?

Or at 26 do you HAVE to draft for potential over fundamental skill?

Do you just get laughed at by other front offices if you take the high floor guy over the possible high ceiling guy?

John Collins is too small to play and defend at center isnt he?  Even against small ball 5 out teams?   Seems like you would need someone else other than him as well.  Love his offensive game though.

[Mavs2021]

Sorry to do this in the draft thread, but peak Holmes was in 20/21, not last season.  He had an EPM of 93 was in the 90th percentile of Block%, 87th percentile in DR% and 96th percentile in TS%.  Damian Jones has a negative EPM every single year of his career.  He's never once had a positive On-Off.  There is more to basketball than points and rebounds per game.  

The case for Holmes is very similar to the case for Dinwiddie (which so many here missed).  Dinwiddie was fantastic his final full pre-injury season in Brooklyn.  He didn't look like himself at all in DC, but largely returned to form once he got here.  Holmes put in three really nice seasons as a starter before last season.  Dallas might not be the best place for a guy with domestic violence charges hanging over his head, but he's miles better than Damian Jones or anyone we can get for the TP-MLE.

As to draft picks, a big man taken at 26 is years away from contributing to a serious playoff team.  The hit-rate in this area of the draft isn't high.  Yes, anyone can name names taken in this range or lower.  But what about all the misses.  No one ever names those names and there are MANY more of those.  If it weren't so, two former #8 picks in the draft wouldn't be sitting on our bench struggling to get minutes.

I get it. You think basketball is just math and statistics. That´s why for the last three years you tried to convince us that Dwight Powell is some special basketball talent because of his advanced metrics. Then every year around the play-offs, when the game of basketball is played and not the math olympics, you go into hiding just like Powell. Rinse and repeat next regular season, when Dwight Powell goes 9/11 with 12 rebounds during a meaningless regular season game in December against a tanking Houston Rockets team.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I get it. You think basketball is just math and statistics. That´s why for the last three years you tried to convince us that Dwight Powell is some special basketball talent because of his advanced metrics. Then every year around the play-offs, when the game of basketball is played and not the math olympics, you go into hiding just like Powell. Rinse and repeat next regular season, when Dwight Powell goes 9/11 with 12 rebounds during a meaningless regular season game in December against a tanking Houston Rockets team.

Was it something I said.  You didn't like the answer about the draft?  Or, was it that I didn't like your Damian Jones idea.  

BTW, the "9/11 with 12 rebounds during a meaningless regular season game in December against a tanking Houston Rockets team" is a cute line...Congrats.  Since you like counting stats so much, our boy Powell went 12.4/6.3 in 25 minutes during the months of March and April while the Mav's went 15-5.  I'd give you the per36, but don't want to be accused of any advanced stats voodoo.  Good thing we had Powell for the stretch run since Maxi couldn't throw it in the ocean during that time (19% from three).  His counting stats in a very similar 23 minutes where 7.3/6.0.  Maybe instead of trying to ridicule that December game against Houston we could try to celebrate when someone contributes to winning during an important stretch of the season.  Congrats to those who predicted the Luka/Powell PnR would be less effective in the playoffs.  But, would Maxi have been the Maxi he was in the playoffs if not for Powell effectively eating up minutes in the regular season (especially after KP left).

BTW, would it surprise you to learn Powell actually had the better rebound rate than Maxi during the playoffs.  It doesn't surprise me.  Maxi had the better rebounding counting stats this season (career for both he and Powell in terms of per minute rebounding and rebounding percent are dead on).  HOWEVER, when Maxi was in the game this season, the Mav's lost the total rebounding war by almost a rebound per 48.  When Powell was in the game this season, team rebounding beat the opponent's team rebounding by 1.1 boards per 48.  Wait Dan, you mean you don't actually have to grab the rebound to help team rebounding?  Mind blown.

As to "hiding", yeah I posted less as the playoffs went on.  The atmosphere around here got more and more toxic the more success we had (which you've now decided to contribute to for some reason).  Basically the hyperbolic emotionally charged game thread takes (which I also avoid) became the norm for the entire board.  You would think people could enjoy the run and root for players on the team they supposedly love.  I don't think I was alone as traffic here seemingly decreased instead of the increase one would imagine with a WCF appearance.  We really need to add back the ignore button.

[MFFL]

I'll defend Powell on rebounding. Many, many times I would see him unable to get a rebound and he tapped it out to the perimeter where one of our players had a chance to get it. Those are rarely counted as rebounds for Powell but they did wind up with the Mavs getting the ball.

Would I prefer a better player? Yes. Was he available last season for the resources we had available? Apparently not.

[Halfnir]

We really need to add back the ignore button.

It exists, click on the user, then find [add to ignore list] on the bottom right corner (not sure where it is on mobile UI, but it should exist).
Please use it, we need your valuable contributions.

[Mapka]

Was it something I said.  You didn't like the answer about the draft?  Or, was it that I didn't like your Damian Jones idea.  

BTW, the "9/11 with 12 rebounds during a meaningless regular season game in December against a tanking Houston Rockets team" is a cute line...Congrats.  Since you like counting stats so much, our boy Powell went 12.4/6.3 in 25 minutes during the months of March and April while the Mav's went 15-5.  I'd give you the per36, but don't want to be accused of any advanced stats voodoo.  Good thing we had Powell for the stretch run since Maxi couldn't throw it in the ocean during that time (19% from three).  His counting stats in a very similar 23 minutes where 7.3/6.0.  Maybe instead of trying to ridicule that December game against Houston we could try to celebrate when someone contributes to winning during an important stretch of the season.  Congrats to those who predicted the Luka/Powell PnR would be less effective in the playoffs.  But, would Maxi have been the Maxi he was in the playoffs if not for Powell effectively eating up minutes in the regular season (especially after KP left).

BTW, would it surprise you to learn Powell actually had the better rebound rate than Maxi during the playoffs.  It doesn't surprise me.  Maxi had the better rebounding counting stats this season (career for both he and Powell in terms of per minute rebounding and rebounding percent are dead on).  HOWEVER, when Maxi was in the game this season, the Mav's lost the total rebounding war by almost a rebound per 48.  When Powell was in the game this season, team rebounding beat the opponent's team rebounding by 1.1 boards per 48.  Wait Dan, you mean you don't actually have to grab the rebound to help team rebounding?  Mind blown.

As to "hiding", yeah I posted less as the playoffs went on.  The atmosphere around here got more and more toxic the more success we had (which you've now decided to contribute to for some reason).  Basically the hyperbolic emotionally charged game thread takes (which I also avoid) became the norm for the entire board.  You would think people could enjoy the run and root for players on the team they supposedly love.  I don't think I was alone as traffic here seemingly decreased instead of the increase one would imagine with a WCF appearance.  We really need to add back the ignore button.

This is a great post. Thank you.

[Scott41theMavs]

Was it something I said.  You didn't like the answer about the draft?  Or, was it that I didn't like your Damian Jones idea.  

BTW, the "9/11 with 12 rebounds during a meaningless regular season game in December against a tanking Houston Rockets team" is a cute line...Congrats.  Since you like counting stats so much, our boy Powell went 12.4/6.3 in 25 minutes during the months of March and April while the Mav's went 15-5.  I'd give you the per36, but don't want to be accused of any advanced stats voodoo.  Good thing we had Powell for the stretch run since Maxi couldn't throw it in the ocean during that time (19% from three).  His counting stats in a very similar 23 minutes where 7.3/6.0.  Maybe instead of trying to ridicule that December game against Houston we could try to celebrate when someone contributes to winning during an important stretch of the season.  Congrats to those who predicted the Luka/Powell PnR would be less effective in the playoffs.  But, would Maxi have been the Maxi he was in the playoffs if not for Powell effectively eating up minutes in the regular season (especially after KP left).

BTW, would it surprise you to learn Powell actually had the better rebound rate than Maxi during the playoffs.  It doesn't surprise me.  Maxi had the better rebounding counting stats this season (career for both he and Powell in terms of per minute rebounding and rebounding percent are dead on).  HOWEVER, when Maxi was in the game this season, the Mav's lost the total rebounding war by almost a rebound per 48.  When Powell was in the game this season, team rebounding beat the opponent's team rebounding by 1.1 boards per 48.  Wait Dan, you mean you don't actually have to grab the rebound to help team rebounding?  Mind blown.

As to "hiding", yeah I posted less as the playoffs went on.  The atmosphere around here got more and more toxic the more success we had (which you've now decided to contribute to for some reason).  Basically the hyperbolic emotionally charged game thread takes (which I also avoid) became the norm for the entire board.  You would think people could enjoy the run and root for players on the team they supposedly love.  I don't think I was alone as traffic here seemingly decreased instead of the increase one would imagine with a WCF appearance.  We really need to add back the ignore button.

Wonderful. A boss response to a tone-deaf, "I-know-you-are-but-what-am-I" post.

[Chicagojk]

We should probably look into Dalen Terry from Arizona a little more.  Scoring stats are not impressive but he is being viewed as a guy you draft before the jump happens.  I have seen in in the 20’s on some sites. He has the measurements we are looking for with good defense and passing but shot is still in development.  I don’t know much about him at this stage.

https://youtu.be/qZPkQTioQE8

[Kammrath]

Dalen Terry

He is already on my radar and will definitely make my list I am working on.

[F Gump]

2 things we get caught up in, that deserve a word of perspective for our wish lists:

1 We like to focus on height and wingspan, which help the player who can play -- but don't tell us if there is skill, coordination, quickness, strength, instinct, etc. "How well does he play the game" often gets lost in the process of looking, even though that is the most crucial component of a winning player.

2 For the evaluators at the NBA level, the "pro day" videos are virtually worthless. They are designed to create oohs and aahs in doing the most basic skill show. If you don't know already, these are the records of choreographed exhibitions, where evaluators are invited by agent groups, and the players just take some warmup shots and moves around. No defense, nothing hard, just basic shots, easy movements, even worthless dunks in abundance as if the ability to dunk a basketball needs to be proven. These are typically offered as SUBSTITUTES for the player who will not be playing against other prospects at the combine, which is a real concerning approach since you want to see how a player stacks up competitively against other potentially-draftable players. Unless it's a lottery-level guy, if a player won't play at the combine, it should raise big question marks as to why, and what is missing when the player hits the court against competition.