TAKE DAT WIT YOU 11/4

[fifteenth]

Good question. 

In terms of seeing what he has, Kidd does seem to be asking some players to stretch their comfort zones, likely thinking that they might have it in them. The podders think that even Kidd probably doesn't expect 100% of these experiments to work, but a few probably will, and they don't think he will insist on sticking to them if they're clearly not working after being given a reasonable chance. 

I guess one way to look at it would be that these guys are being given a chance, assuming they want one.

Good points. I've also thought of this as information gathering for the new coach. If so, then this is a departure from Rick's approach for sure. He appears to be more in favor of doing his info gathering in practice, which I've always kind of defended. To me Kidd seems to be doing something that folks on this forum have wanted for a long time. He's allowing for more development time in game.

I agree with the thought that he won't keep doing the things that don't work. In fact, it looks like he goes more back to what the players are used to when he needs a win. 

At some point Kidd said that he'd know what he has around Christmas. Unless the losses pile up too much, we may see experimentation all the way through December.

[mavsluvr]

Before you dump on my stats, I know this is short on data, which limits its validity, but it supports the eye test of slow starts and early game inefficiencies. Not enough to draw conclusions, but interesting to watch and see if there is a change in the trends.

Also, the delta values show each of the 3 losses had one bad quarter of >-10. I think this means that avoiding a big run by the opponent is key to staying competitive for the game. Sometimes there is nothing you can do and sometimes you have to Hack-a-Shaq. Hopefully, the defensive focus will improve the team effort and eliminate these situations.

michaeltex, 


Thanks for your observations. I hope I am not coming across as dumping on you or anyone else, and that is certainly not my intention. 

I agree that the stats are interesting. Thanks for organizing and presenting them! As you point out, a statistical analysis is affected by sample size, and the podders suggest that the team has been playing under very non-representative conditions, which may indicate that the stats under those conditions could be outliers. (As a Mavs fan, I am clinging to the hope that they have something there.)

Having said that, the stats you have unearthed do indicate what actually happened, and it seems that you have offered some well-considered hypotheses as to what they might mean.  I, too, have noticed some of the things you describe under your eye test. I am not yet ready to draw conclusions, but agree that these trends merit watching. Maybe you can check back with us in a few games to see how your impressions are bearing out!

Thanks again. Good food for thought!

[mavsluvr]

The 3pt shooting sucks. But it will revert to the mean.

I tend to agree with this. The numbers are SO much different than normal, my mind just won't wrap itself around their being anything but outliers. But emotions and impressions don't equal facts, so I'm really hoping to start seeing some empirical proof of that, preferably sooner rather than later. If this poor-shooting situation is in fact, the new normal, then we're in for a whole different ballgame than I expected.

[mavsluvr]

Good points. I've also thought of this as information gathering for the new coach. If so, then this is a departure from Rick's approach for sure. He appears to be more in favor of doing his info gathering in practice, which I've always kind of defended. To me Kidd seems to be doing something that folks on this forum have wanted for a long time. He's allowing for more development time in game.

I agree with the thought that he won't keep doing the things that don't work. In fact, it looks like he goes more back to what the players are used to when he needs a win. 

At some point Kidd said that he'd know what he has around Christmas. Unless the losses pile up too much, we may see experimentation all the way through December.

I have thought about this a lot. In some ways, this is what many fans have long cried out for. He's finding time for a lot of the players, trying new things, not giving up on something the first time it doesn't work, etc. If we don't like this, maybe we should be careful what we wish for, lol. 

I had the impression listening that these experiments were going to continue for at least 20-30 games before Kidd settles into a more "permanent" strategy.

[michaeltex]

FWIW, if we're going to be in the lab for a while here, I wouldn't mind seeing Mose get more time. Especially if Maxi is out for a while. I'm curious about his energy and if it will pump up the team some. More that than any specific skill set he brings.

[david75090]

FWIW, if we're going to be in the lab for a while here, I wouldn't mind seeing Mose get more time. Especially if Maxi is out for a while. I'm curious about his energy and if it will pump up the team some. More that than any specific skill set he brings.

I was hoping Kidd would put the kid in when Boban needed a breather. SA was having trouble with Boban's size and Brown would be more of the same except with more energy.

[mavsluvr]

FWIW, if we're going to be in the lab for a while here, I wouldn't mind seeing Mose get more time. Especially if Maxi is out for a while. I'm curious about his energy and if it will pump up the team some. More that than any specific skill set he brings.

I could see that happening, at least here and there. 

From what little I have seen of him, he seemed pretty raw -- more in the nature of a project than someone who could provide much help now. But hard to know at this early stage. I was also not certain what level of commitment they had to him since, iirc, he was just the price of dumping JR, rather than someone they actively sought. I was happy that he made the team. Would be cool to see him develop.

[mavsluvr]

I heard a podcast today featuring Matt Moore, longtime NBA writer, and something he said resonated with me. 

He and Kirk were evaluating the various teams in the Western conference. Matt characterized the Mavs as a high-floor, low-ceiling team. Says it was actually somewhat built that way. They acquired Luka, which gave them a high floor and a high ceiling, but then surrounded him with a supporting cast that lowered their ceiling, but did little or nothing to further raise their floor. 

So what is the outlook for a team with a high floor (because of Luka) and a low ceiling (because of the low-upside remaining roster). These early-season struggles we are seeing probably get ironed out. Provided Luka stays healthy, the team is not likely to fall out of the playoffs. But not likely to contend for the title, either.

[ReunionMav]

As for a higher ceiling, one way to get there is by discovering existing players can do more. Kidd seems to be in experiment mode to see what he might have that we did not expect. The other side of the experiment could be discovering who the Mavericks would move on from by trading for other raise the ceiling player candidates.

[mavsluvr]

As for a higher ceiling, one way to get there is by discovering existing players can do more. Kidd seems to be in experiment mode to see what he might have that we did not expect. The other side of the experiment could be discovering who the Mavericks would move on from by trading for other raise the ceiling player candidates.

Agree with that. 

As far as I can tell, Kidd seems to be approaching the players as if he has no preconceived opinions, and is challenging/allowing them to do things that may or may not work out to raise the ceiling via improvements in the current roster/coaching schemes. It seems like at least some of them would add some value. 

And as you point out, there is the possibility of acquiring players who could already raise the ceiling, or could get there in a reasonably short time. That story? To be continued.