GAME 8: DAL (5-3) @ SAS (2-6) | 109-108 win

[mvossman]

It's the exact opposite....I am looking at the forest right now.

Every single other Mav plays with those same guys....and has so far performed better than Luka has with those guys. That's the forest we are facing right now. 

And if you just refuse to look at +/- then just watch Luka really carefully. Watch him hang his head, labor to get up the court, and not get back on D. Watch him turn and argue with an official and miss his defensive rotation. Watch him position himself for a defensive rebound and give up a layup. Watch him be a step too slow to get around an NBA defender. Watch him airball three 3s in a single game. Etc. If you think this is "good Luka" then I am terrified for the future of this team.

You used the same +/- stat to show how great WCS was doing.  That should be enough to completely ignore small sample +/-.  Luka is definitely off his game right now (same as most of the team) just like last year.  Last year it was because he was out of shape.  This year it could be that he is tired from Olympics, or learning a new offensive scheme, or took too much rest after Olympics and still out of shape or some combination of the above.  He is still the most important/valuable player on the team/court, and its not even close (unless Brunson continues on this tear).  He will pull out of it this year like he did last year.  Be glad we are 5-3 with most of the team struggling and our top two frontcourt players out.

[ItsGoTime]

Be glad we are 5-3 with most of the team struggling and our top two frontcourt players out.

Are they struggling, or showing who they are?

[mvossman]

One thing the Mavs haven´t solved is the defense/offense balance. Same trend as last season. Go smaller. With single big lineups or another small ballhandler in the lineup (Brunson) and the defense isn´t looking nearly as good. On the other hand the offense is looking way better.
Don´t think there is a lot the coaches can do to change that. They just have to make the best possible pre and in game adjustments. The solution (in my opinion a big starting calliber forward) isn´t on the roster right now.
Maybe a more consistent version of Frank could help a little bit to compensate for the lack of playmaking in the bigger lineups. Lack of interior defense in the smaller lineups.

I think the real issue is that our top two bigs are injury prone.  We traded out KP for Brunson.  That will obviously hit your defense.  That big starting forward is Maxi in my opinion.  Last year the starting lineup with KP and Maxi dominated.  They would have been even better if KP and Maxi were not struggling with defense for various reasons.  If those guys were healthy, I would expect that lineup to be even better this year (KP and Maxi showed better defense and you would be replacing JRich with THJ or Bullock or Brunson or even Frank).

[mvossman]

Are they struggling, or showing who they are?

Many of them are shooting under 30% from 3.  The team as a whole is shooting under 31%.  That is not "who they are".  That is small sample outlier, especially given that the team as a whole is getting really good looks.  This team starts making shots (and they will soon) things will look very different.

[Kammrath]

You're chopping the guy's head off, claiming he's not a top 5 all time player material or there's a limit to how much Luka can win (despite the years of evidence proving that wrong)

Saying he currently looks like he won't end his career with MJ and Lebron is "chopping off his head"? Geez, pretty sensitive.

We have three years of NBA evidence to point to him struggling to win in the NBA to a certain extent. Sure, he has won with FIBA rules (great and promising!) but the NBA game is very different. Luka may have TONS of international success and very limited NBA success. That IS a possibility. Why I am being accused of being reactionary for grappling with that very real possibility?

[fifteenth]

We have three years of NBA evidence to point to him struggling to win in the NBA to a certain extent.

Compared to other players of his age and experience level, who were asked to be the franchise, I don't Luka has lagged behind in winning at all. If he and his team stagnate, and prove to have topped out, then he will begin to lag behind other generational players.

[fifteenth]

Saying he currently looks like he won't end his career with MJ and Lebron is "chopping off his head"? Geez, pretty sensitive.

I'll have to go out on a limb to guess what SH is saying. But I think by "chopping off his head" he's refering to your discussion about Luka's legaciy based on the start to this season. I mean, his trajectory and legacy appeared to be intact all the way up until the start of this season, just a few weeks ago. 

Here's where I stand on your analysis: I'm concerend, as you are, with Luka's start to the season and with the way Luka lineups have performed. However, I diverge with you regarding discussion of his legacy simply because I think it's premature and because I think there are many possible reasons for the slow start other than "he's not what we thought he was". I'll choose to wait and see whether those "other reasons" are the thing before speculating about legacy.

[Kammrath]

Compared to other players of his age and experience level, who were asked to be the franchise, I don't Luka has lagged behind in winning at all. If he and his team stagnate, and prove to have topped out, then he will begin to lag behind other generational players.

Just as some examples....

Dirk in seasons 3 & 4 won 52 games + 1st round & 57 games + 1st round respectively.

Lebron in seasons 3 & 4 won 50 games + 1st round & 50 games + 3 playoff series.

MJ in season 3 & 4 won 40 games & 50 games + 1st round.

Yes, I think your position is legit, but my concern is when I look under the hood.

[Kammrath]

I mean, his trajectory and legacy appeared to be intact all the way up until the start of this season, just a few weeks ago.

So for full disclosure I have quietly been having these concerns about Luka for at least a year. So I am bringing those concerns out into the light right now for the first time, but I have had some nagging concerns for a year plus and I just buried them because honestly I preferred thinking everything was just fine. 

I am not saying what I am feeling is "right"....but I think they are legitimate feelings based on the evidence in front of us (and not just this year). Time will see if they are accurate or not. I just don't see Luka carrying this team in the way I had hoped and in the way I have seen the greatest players in my lifetime do it.

[dirkfansince1998]

The he isn´t winning anything compared to MJ argument isn´t making any sense. Jordan didn´t win anything in his first few seasons. Not even a winning record in his first three seasons (arguably two because of the injury in his 2nd season). But in a bad conference that was still enough for the playoffs and just like Luka he lost in the first round.
That changed but not because Jordan reached a completly different level. He improved but even more important the team around him improved. Things changed when Pippen and Grant arrived. In their rookie season Jordan wins his first playoff series. In the following seasons they become a legit contender but lose three consecutive ECF vs the Pistons. Jordan is 28. In his 7th season when he gets his first ring.

Same for LBJ. He missed the playoff in his first two seasons. Plays in a terrible ECF and makes the finals in his 4th season. Never gets close again. Joins the Heat. Gets spanked by the Mavs. Gets his first ring in his 9th season.

I don´t want to make the case that Luka is anywhere close to them. No player in his 4th season should get compared to them. But the bottom line is. Both couldn´t win anything without help. No matter how great they played. Things didn´t change because they reached another level. They already played at an all time great level. Things changed when they had a better supporting cast.

I would argue that the talent level of Luka´s cast hasn´t improved at all in the last three seasons. Cannor really expect different results as long as that doesn´t change.

[fifteenth]

Just as some examples....

Dirk in seasons 3 & 4 won 52 games + 1st round & 57 games + 1st round respectively.

Lebron in seasons 3 & 4 won 50 games + 1st round & 50 games + 3 playoff series.

MJ in season 3 & 4 won 40 games & 50 games + 1st round.

Yes, I think your position is legit, but my concern is when I look under the hood.

Those are good examples. 

I'd say Luka's year 3 is comporable to those guys, and he carried way more load than year 3 Dirk did. If Luka has another first round exit this year, that's where he begins to fall behind. 

So in the "legacy" discussion, this is an important year. 

Of course, templates can be broken. If this year is tough because it's a roster and coaching transition year, then Luka could come back in year 5 and pull himself back into the "greats" conversation. 

My biggest fear regarding the "greats" conversation (and I'm sure this is not a hot take at all), is that the "legacy" might be more in jeapordy based on whether the Mavs can put a good enough team together to allow Luka to be in the "top 5" conversation.

[fifteenth]

Joins the Heat. Gets spanked by the Mavs.

This, of course, is the most important point to make about LeBron's legacy.

[Kammrath]

whether the Mavs can put a good enough team together to allow Luka to be in the "top 5" conversation.

A LEGIT, LEGIT, LEGIT concern that gets lots of play on this board. I do NOT disagree with it. This whole talking point of mine is not a rejection of that.

I just think the "internal" concern of Luka himself is just as legit based on what we have seen about stamina, conditioning, shooting consistency, half-assing, etc. 

I think Luka's career can be sabotaged "externally" by the Mavs organization and random crap....OR "internally" sabotaged by Luka's own work ethic, diet, preparation, focus, etc. I just don't think EITHER are a "given" right now.

[SleepingHero]

I'll have to go out on a limb to guess what SH is saying. But I think by "chopping off his head" he's refering to your discussion about Luka's legaciy based on the start to this season. I mean, his trajectory and legacy appeared to be intact all the way up until the start of this season, just a few weeks ago. 

Bingo

---

I would argue that the talent level of Luka´s cast hasn´t improved at all in the last three seasons. Cannor really expect different results as long as that doesn´t change.

 

Double bingo.

[ReunionMav]

Ok. Speaking of sitting on something for a year I really hate the term “Fat Luka “. It is so derogatory! It certainly doesn’t help Luka stay loyal to the Mavericks. It is really stupid on our part as fans.
Does he care? Probably not much. He probably understands fans. But why, why do we have to repeatedly use such descriptions. 

If we grant the conclusion that many believe that he could start the season in better shape, just for sake of argument, that still doesn’t change the most important point. We need him to do too much and he is the highest usage player in the league. I say no one has ever succeeded in winning a title carrying that big of a usage rate though Jordan certainly tried. No one can be in that good of shape physically or emotionally. 

I would point out that J Kidd seems to believe Luka needs a lighter load and they are working on doing just that with Luka seeming to try to adjust. I am watching with interest with no need for conclusions yet.

[ReunionMav]

Right now our team seems focused on finding who we have that can better share the load of winning basketball. Brunson, FN, and maybe others are clearly rising. Player moves and playing time will follow evaluation. I am just glad that so far we haven’t made play positioning to hard to achieve later.

[fifteenth]

Right now our team seems focused on finding who we have that can better share the load of winning basketball. Brunson, FN, and maybe others are clearly rising. Player moves and playing time will follow evaluation. I am just glad that so far we haven’t made play positioning to hard to achieve later.

Good stuff.

BTW, looks like we have a chance to start the season on that ReunionMav 6 of 10 pace. :-)

[ReunionMav]

Well Mr positive here still hopes for 7 of 10 but won’t be excessively down with 5 of 10 as our team makes adjustments.

[fifteenth]

Well Mr positive here still hopes for 7 of 10 but won’t be excessively down with 5 of 10 as our team makes adjustments.

57.4 wins would be outstanding!!!