RECENT PODCASTS AND ARTICLES

[ClutchDirk]

And no JR.

And soon hopefully no Burke either..

[DallasMaverick]

And soon hopefully no Burke either..

Seems like you're pretty disappointed with the performance of the 14th guy on the team. And his barely-over-vet-minimum salary.

Maybe HE'S the reason we didn't win the championship last year.

Wonder if the Phoenix fans are clamoring for Abdel Nader to be cut at all costs?

[ClutchDirk]

When that guy got picked over Luka's best friend and someone who could have had a better impact in limited minutes for the same price...

[DallasMaverick]

When that guy got picked over Luka's best friend and someone who could have had a better impact in limited minutes for the same price...

I suppose JJB instead of Burke is a different argument.

This argument is about what a horrible, negative cancer Burke is to the team, and how we need to get rid of him at almost any cost.

[Chicagojk]

On the most recent Bill Simmons podcast with Jackie MacMullan and Zach Lowe they begin the pod talking Mavs for 5-10 minutes.

[mavsluvr]

TAKE DAT WIT YOU 9/22

Brian and Mark with their latest thoughts. 


Who is getting cut? 

After learning of FN's contractual arrangement, it doesn’t appear that he is just a training camp audition, but either he or someone has to go by the start of the regular season. Money-wise, it looks like Moses is the odd man out, but other things could happen. There might be a trade market for someone on the roster, for example. At the time Willie was re-signed, there was some buzz that they anticipated trading him. We’ll know in a few weeks. 


WHERE DO THE MAVS STAND?

Compared to previous seasons

The offense was historic season before last, and it declined only a little bit last season. They went from 1st to 8th in net rating, but this was more a matter of their more or less running in place and other teams improving and leapfrogging them. 

They’re not that far off in an absolute sense from climbing to top four status. They need to aim at being in the top ten on both ends of the floor. That would require a little bit of improvement offensively and a somewhat more substantial improvement on D. 

Rotations

Kidd may try a number of things in camp in pre-season. Pending seeing that, the podcasters predict the follow places on the roster (order alphabetical within categories)—

1-5        Bullock, Luka, THJ, KP, DFS
6-7        JB, Maxi
8-9        DP, WCS 
10-15    SBrown, Burke, Boban, Ntilikina, Terry (MBrown sub if he is kept)
16-17    Two-way players

There is room for a lot of mixing and matching, of course. It is possible that Maxi could be the go-to starter instead of DFS, but the podcasters think that coming off the bench would be a tough pill to swallow for Doe-Doe, whereas a somewhat lighter role might be a good thing for Maxi. THJ mostly served as a sixth man last season, but given his new contract, they look for him to assume a starting position. They look for the finishing lineups to consist of LD-KP-THJ and some combination of the others, depending on the matchup and how the game is going. 

The offense benefits greatly from a big who can play vertically. Who will do that? DP played the role well once he recovered from his injury, but he doesn’t spread the floor. Also, he was good but not great at the vertical role, and they didn’t go to that very much in the playoffs, perhaps due to the matchup.

Since the Mavs did not make the offseason changes necessary to do much more than stay on the treadmill, they must look for improvement within the roster. Brunson can be expected to take another leap. KP is of course critical, but we won’t know for a while whether the hoped-for improvement materializes or not. Can he be the vertical guy? TBD. Kidd will surely use him in some different manners than Rick did, and a number of possibilities will probably be tried. For example, if he can’t/doesn’t want to post up guys and bully them for physical reasons, he could always turn around and do a fadeaway, a la Dirk, if he can develop that kind of attack. 

Compared to other teams

They are a little higher on the Mavs compared to other teams than Stein is, possibly as a result of the fact that Stein’s estimates are based on the teams as they exist today, and the podders are estimating based on the prospective season as a whole. Dameris has them 4th in the West, behind the Lakers, Phoenix and Utah. Mark wasn’t willing to go that far, but said he thought they were in a position to compete for that spot. Realistically, they need to attain at least the fifth seed to have a good shot at the second round (a “real” fifth seed, as opposed to a flukey rules-based tie for 5-7 like last season). They predict the Mavs to have wins in the neighborhood of the high forties or low fifties, and think they need to win 50 games to be a serious candidate for the second round. If they are healthy all season and fail to win 50 games, that should constitute the reddest of alerts. 

They think the fourth or fifth seed is a realistic target for the Mavs, and that the goal should be second round or bust. It is possible that they could make the WCF and/or the finals, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 

With the front office and coaching changes, this promises to be a very interesting season, despite the lackluster roster moves. Training camp opens next week!


https://www.patreon.com/posts/training-camp-56487691?utm_medium=post_notification_email&utm_source=post_link&utm_campaign=patron_engagement&token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJyZWRpc19rZXkiOiJpbnN0YW50LWFjY2VzczozZjM1NmU3Zi03NjUwLTRjYTEtOTdlYy03NGEyMjg1NDM0ZDIifQ.RzYPGaY7BNVCiMMi_dom7Cqal318V7EtxcllTyVhz8M

[fifteenth]

TAKE DAT WIT YOU 9/22



1-5        Bullock, Luka, THJ, KP, DFS
6-7        JB, Maxi
8-9        DP, WCS 
10-15    SBrown, Burke, Boban, Ntilikina, Terry (MBrown sub if he is kept)
16-17    Two-way players

Thanks, ML! I'm assuming Green is part of the 10-15 group?

[mavsluvr]

Thanks, ML! I'm assuming Green is part of the 10-15 group?

Oops! Yes, he was!

[michaeltex]

1-5        Bullock, Luka, THJ, KP, DFS
6-7        JB, Maxi
8-9        DP, WCS 
10-15    SBrown, Burke, Boban, Ntilikina, Terry (MBrown sub if he is kept)
16-17    Two-way players

Interesting how far DP has fallen in the rotation. 


Also that 3 of the top 4 subs are "bigs". So if both Luka and THJ sit, then should we expect a significant fall off in efficiency? That was something we saw last year for sure.

[mavsluvr]

Interesting how far DP has fallen in the rotation. 


Also that 3 of the top 4 subs are "bigs". So if both Luka and THJ sit, then should we expect a significant fall off in efficiency? That was something we saw last year for sure.

Well, it's just the prediction of Brian and Mark, and we don't know for sure yet, but it sounded reasonable. 

I would guess that an efficiency falloff is likely if both Luka and THJ are sitting. Unless maybe JB and KP can get something going. But I imagine that type of falloff wouldn't be too unexpected for a bench unit. 

Do you have a different outlook on it?

[fifteenth]

Interesting how far DP has fallen in the rotation. 


Also that 3 of the top 4 subs are "bigs". So if both Luka and THJ sit, then should we expect a significant fall off in efficiency? That was something we saw last year for sure.

They may not have a roster that allows for a stand alone second unit quite yet. You can't take the next 5 guys listed and create a lineup (JB, Maxi, DP, WCS, S. Brown). I think that list is more of an attempt at an ordering by current ability. 

If you wanted to create a stand alone second unit from the current roster, given the starting lineup from the pod cast, then it would probably be something like

Brunson, Sterling Brown, Josh Green, Maxi, DP

Hard to know if that unit would work. Probably not. After the first substitution, instead you might see something like:

Luka, Brunson, Bullock, Maxi, KP 

Then later

Luka, Brunson, Green (or Sterling), Maxi, DP (or Willie)

Then sometime in the second quarter

Brunson, THJ, Green (or Sterling), DFS, KP

But hard to tell. We have to see Kidd for a while so we can get Rick out of our heads. If I try to come up with lineups I'm too influenced by watching RC teams for so many years.

[mavsluvr]

They may not have a roster that allows for a stand alone second unit quite yet. You can't take the next 5 guys listed and create a lineup (JB, Maxi, DP, WCS, S. Brown). I think that list is more of an attempt at an ordering by current ability. 

If you wanted to create a stand alone second unit from the current roster, given the starting lineup from the pod cast, then it would probably be something like

Brunson, Sterling Brown, Josh Green, Maxi, DP

Hard to know if that unit would work. Probably not. After the first substitution, instead you might see something like:

Luka, Brunson, Bullock, Maxi, KP 

Then later

Luka, Brunson, Green (or Sterling), Maxi, DP (or Willie)

Then sometime in the second quarter

Brunson, THJ, Green (or Sterling), DFS, KP

But hard to tell. We have to see Kidd for a while so we can get Rick out of our heads. If I try to come up with lineups I'm too influenced by watching RC teams for so many years.

Agree with your assessment. I would expect they would endeavor to have two of Luka-KP-THJ on the floor at any given time, or something on that order. 

But, like you, I am still in the Carlisle mode of thinking, and maybe Kidd does something different.

[Chicagojk]

TAKE DAT WIT YOU 9/22

Brian and Mark with their latest thoughts. 


Who is getting cut? 

After learning of FN's contractual arrangement, it doesn’t appear that he is just a training camp audition, but either he or someone has to go by the start of the regular season. Money-wise, it looks like Moses is the odd man out, but other things could happen. There might be a trade market for someone on the roster, for example. At the time Willie was re-signed, there was some buzz that they anticipated trading him. We’ll know in a few weeks. 

This got me thinking.  If Powell is here to stay, I do wonder if WCS could be the odd man out.  Do you really need three specialty big man in Powell, WCS and Boban.   If Brown shows promise in camp, maybe he fits better as a developmental big man who you have on a real low salary for the next two years.    WCS is expiring and probably isn't in  our long range plans.   You would need to find a team to move him to though.    

Some may like Powell more than WCS, and I am sure there are others who prefer WCS.  But with Powell's salary he is probably here for at least another year.   I think both are a matter of personal preference and I wonder if both may have been helped by the Carlisle system.    We will see.

[mavsluvr]

This got me thinking.  If Powell is here to stay, I do wonder if WCS could be the odd man out.  Do you really need three specialty big man in Powell, WCS and Boban.   If Brown shows promise in camp, maybe he fits better as a developmental big man who you have on a real low salary for the next two years.    WCS is expiring and probably isn't in  our long range plans.   You would need to find a team to move him to though.    

Some may like Powell more than WCS, and I am sure there are others who prefer WCS.  But with Powell's salary he is probably here for at least another year.   I think both are a matter of personal preference and I wonder if both may have been helped by the Carlisle system.    We will see.

Yes, we may have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to back-half-of-the-roster bigs. All your points seem logical.

[michaeltex]

They may not have a roster that allows for a stand alone second unit quite yet. You can't take the next 5 guys listed and create a lineup (JB, Maxi, DP, WCS, S. Brown). I think that list is more of an attempt at an ordering by current ability. 

If you wanted to create a stand alone second unit from the current roster, given the starting lineup from the pod cast, then it would probably be something like

Brunson, Sterling Brown, Josh Green, Maxi, DP

Hard to know if that unit would work. Probably not. After the first substitution, instead you might see something like:

Luka, Brunson, Bullock, Maxi, KP 

Then later

Luka, Brunson, Green (or Sterling), Maxi, DP (or Willie)

Then sometime in the second quarter

Brunson, THJ, Green (or Sterling), DFS, KP

But hard to tell. We have to see Kidd for a while so we can get Rick out of our heads. If I try to come up with lineups I'm too influenced by watching RC teams for so many years.

I agree that the original list wasn't a B team lineup selection. My comment was how the backup wings (excepting Brunson) were in the bottom third of the hierarchy, when I would like to see a couple more ahead of at least WCS or Brown. 

But this is still the offseason and everything is just an opinion until we see how it all comes together.

[mavsluvr]

I agree that the original list wasn't a B team lineup selection. My comment was how the backup wings (excepting Brunson) were in the bottom third of the hierarchy, when I would like to see a couple more ahead of at least WCS or Brown. 

That could end up happening. A case could be made for putting Green at #10 and the other guys 11-15, and then ponder whether he should be in category 8-9-10 or 10-15.

I don't know that Green and the other deeper bench guards will be in direct competition with WCS and Powell, except in the sense that the coach could be expected to give the better players more minutes in a general sense. In any particular lineup situation, a lot would probably depend on whether they want to play with a bigger unit or a smaller one, and what skills they're looking for in the moment. 

The thing is, when you look at the guards, there is a pretty big drop from LD-THJ-JB to Green. Hopefully, Bullock will be also be notably better. And the other guards are probably even behind Green as an overall matter (of course, Burke and Green aren't fungible players, etc.) But they could do well and make a leap into a higher category. Or, conversely, DP and WCS could do poorly and drop to a lower one (yikes!). 

Of course, I'm just speculating here for the fun of it. Anything could happen!