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[mavsluvr]

Updates from Mark and Brian


Frank Ntlikina

Stein says Mavs expect to sign him. Very good defensive player. Good guard build — long and rugged. Can defend point guards. But, extremely limited offensively. 

He spent his first three seasons playing a bench role for the Knicks. Then, last season, Thibs didn’t play him very much, in accordance with the coach's tendency of playing short rotations. In fact, Frank played only 33 games for an average 10mpg. Offensively, he has a history of very mediocre shooting. Last season, he unexpectedly shot 48% from three on 48 attempts, but only 19% on twos in 31 attempts. It remains to be seen whether that represented a trend or a fluke. 

This signing should be essentially a no-risk move. The hope is that Kidd might be able to coach him up to a different level in his system, and that they can improve his shot a little. They want a guy who can get stops when they really need them in certain situations. They could also use a little more roster balance, since the Mavs have six bigs and only four ball-handling guards, two of which may be unlikely to earn many minutes in normal circumstances.

Who will have to make way? If it turns out to be a training camp invite, the Mavs have already cleared a spot by waiving Onu. If it’s a regular roster spot, as expected, then a space will have to be opened. Probably Moses Brown, as they have so many big guys and his deal is only partly guaranteed. But Terry is also a possibility as the fourth point guard, or even Burke, although he has two years left on his deal.  

The proposed signing has not been announced, and there is no assurance that it will constitute anything more than an audition. But considering the overall situation, the podcasters will be surprised if Frank doesn’t make the team, assuming he is signed. If he is indeed signed, that will make seven international players on the Mavs’ 15-man roster.


John Wall 

Houston is rebuilding, and is shopping Wall. He is owed $92M, and it may take a FRP for the Rox to get off him. Mark and Brian don’t see a fit here, even with a FRP,  if we’re talking about a trade. The Mavs have only four players who make over $10M, and they would have to relinquish so much in the way of assets to salary-match that it wouldn’t make sense. Trading KP for Wall would be foolish, in the podcasters’ opinion. If there were a buyout, then the considerations would be be different, but even then, it would be a tough fit, perhaps producing negative synergy with Luka. Wall needs the ball too much, and still thinks he is “the guy.” 


Dragic

Mavs are still strongly hopeful that Dragic will make his way on to the roster this season, but it may be weeks, and in all probability, will be months. Maybe around the trade deadline if the Raps can’t find a trade partner. Mavs really like Dragic for the playoffs and to be a Luka whisperer. 


Roster-building

With Aaron Gordon’s recent signing, the marquee free agent class of 2022 is essentially gone. Any further big swings will need to be made via trade. However, the team also cannot afford to keep swinging and missing on smaller acquisitions, including the draft. The podcasters say that Nico is aware of this, and is looking forward to next season, where there will be time for a proper evaluation process. This summer, he had to leap into the deep end with only a few weeks to work, and it was a pretty tall order for a first-time GM. 


Other 

Other topics discussed include the COVID situation, the proposed mid-season tournament, and the status of a few other players that the Mavs have had interest in at one time or another (Gasol, DAJ, DSJ).


https://www.patreon.com/mavspod/posts

[ClutchDirk]

https://dcs.megaphone.fm/ESP6873849109.m...5be5a9affa

Lowe and McMahon podcast talking Wall and also talking Mavs...

[mavsluvr]

https://dcs.megaphone.fm/ESP6873849109.m...5be5a9affa

Lowe and McMahon podcast talking Wall and also talking Mavs...

Brief summary of the Mavs portion --

Zach and Tim McMahon discussed the Mavs for a short segment. 


They are a little more optimistic than most about the Mavs’ chances. Mavs are a really good team, but not yet contender status. 

The reason the Mavs weren’t a top-four seed last season was because they got hammered by COVID for the first three months. From February on, they had the league’s fifth-best record. 

They didn’t improve the roster much in the offseason, but they made a HUGE coaching change, which may or may not be for the better. Carlisle is one of the best x’s and o’s coaches in the NBA. Rick realized that it was time for a new voice — wrt Luka, and wrt the locker room in general, and decided that he would control the timing and direction of his departure, rather than being on the hot seat all season. 

Kidd has a LOT to prove. And Luka has something to prove. He has to show that he can win big even with an arguable downgrade in coaching, given it was a change that he was happy about. 

There are reasons for optimism. For one, KP is healthy going into the season. He was so bad defensively last season that even if he plays decently on that end of the floor, it will constitute a significant upgrade. 

Zach and Tim think the Mavs are closer to being a contender than people think, but that they aren’t there yet. It’s not outlandish to think they could reach the finals, but many, many things would have to break just right for that to happen. 

The pressure is on the front office to upgrade the team. Their timetable for reaching realistic contender status is probably two seasons. At that point, they will have a little more flexibility to make moves. The next important upcoming decisions are whether to extend DFS and JB. 

In case John Wall is on a listener's radar, it is hard to formulate a trade scenario with him involving any team in the league, and certainly not the Mavs. The Mavs will not trade KP for John Wall, and they shouldn’t. 

[Hypermav]

The reason the Mavs weren’t a top-four seed last season was because they got hammered by COVID for the first three months. From February on, they had the league’s fifth-best record. 

Not disputing Covid was the main factor but almost as bad was the tough schedule to start plus Luka and KP were not really ready to go so soon.  Luka was "one sandwich away from fat."  Yeah, I watched the Avengers last night...

[Jmaciscool]

Updates from Mark and Brian


Frank Ntlikina

Stein says Mavs expect to sign him. Very good defensive player. Good guard build — long and rugged. Can defend point guards. But, extremely limited offensively. 

He spent his first three seasons playing a bench role for the Knicks. Then, last season, Thibs didn’t play him very much, in accordance with the coach's tendency of playing short rotations. In fact, Frank played only 33 games for an average 10mpg. Offensively, he has a history of very mediocre shooting. Last season, he unexpectedly shot 48% from three on 48 attempts, but only 19% on twos in 31 attempts. It remains to be seen whether that represented a trend or a fluke. 

This signing should be essentially a no-risk move. The hope is that Kidd might be able to coach him up to a different level in his system, and that they can improve his shot a little. They want a guy who can get stops when they really need them in certain situations. They could also use a little more roster balance, since the Mavs have six bigs and only four ball-handling guards, two of which may be unlikely to earn many minutes in normal circumstances.

Who will have to make way? If it turns out to be a training camp invite, the Mavs have already cleared a spot by waiving Onu. If it’s a regular roster spot, as expected, then a space will have to be opened. Probably Moses Brown, as they have so many big guys and his deal is only partly guaranteed. But Terry is also a possibility as the fourth point guard, or even Burke, although he has two years left on his deal.  

The proposed signing has not been announced, and there is no assurance that it will constitute anything more than an audition. But considering the overall situation, the podcasters will be surprised if Frank doesn’t make the team, assuming he is signed. If he is indeed signed, that will make seven international players on the Mavs’ 15-man roster.


John Wall 

Houston is rebuilding, and is shopping Wall. He is owed $92M, and it may take a FRP for the Rox to get off him. Mark and Brian don’t see a fit here, even with a FRP,  if we’re talking about a trade. The Mavs have only four players who make over $10M, and they would have to relinquish so much in the way of assets to salary-match that it wouldn’t make sense. Trading KP for Wall would be foolish, in the podcasters’ opinion. If there were a buyout, then the considerations would be be different, but even then, it would be a tough fit, perhaps producing negative synergy with Luka. Wall needs the ball too much, and still thinks he is “the guy.” 


Dragic

Mavs are still strongly hopeful that Dragic will make his way on to the roster this season, but it may be weeks, and in all probability, will be months. Maybe around the trade deadline if the Raps can’t find a trade partner. Mavs really like Dragic for the playoffs and to be a Luka whisperer. 


Roster-building

With Aaron Gordon’s recent signing, the marquee free agent class of 2022 is essentially gone. Any further big swings will need to be made via trade. However, the team also cannot afford to keep swinging and missing on smaller acquisitions, including the draft. The podcasters say that Nico is aware of this, and is looking forward to next season, where there will be time for a proper evaluation process. This summer, he had to leap into the deep end with only a few weeks to work, and it was a pretty tall order for a first-time GM. 


Other 

Other topics discussed include the COVID situation, the proposed mid-season tournament, and the status of a few other players that the Mavs have had interest in at one time or another (Gasol, DAJ, DSJ).


https://www.patreon.com/mavspod/posts

Thanks again for putting this together, your recaps are a highlight!

If signed, if personally would like to see Frank replace Burke, but I think Mark and Brian are right in that it'll probably be Brown that goes. It's fun to think of him as an untapped amazing center that just needs the Mavs' guidance to blossom, but the reality is that he was a contract that was required to make a trade legal, not someone the Mavs really pursued.

I don't think he factors into the Mavs' current plans at all except as a tool to facilitate someone else joining the team if/when the opportunity comes up.

[ItsGoTime]

except as a tool to facilitate someone else joining the team if/when the opportunity comes up.

Ya, I think he's basically a replacement for a second round pick in trade.

[mavsluvr]

UPDATE:

Stein and Isaac Harris report that the Mavs have officially signed Ntlikina.

[mavsluvr]

Thanks again for putting this together, your recaps are a highlight!

If signed, if personally would like to see Frank replace Burke, but I think Mark and Brian are right in that it'll probably be Brown that goes. It's fun to think of him as an untapped amazing center that just needs the Mavs' guidance to blossom, but the reality is that he was a contract that was required to make a trade legal, not someone the Mavs really pursued.

I don't think he factors into the Mavs' current plans at all except as a tool to facilitate someone else joining the team if/when the opportunity comes up.

Thanks, Jmac!

Yes, the buzz we've heard since Moses was signed has been that the Mavs weren't counting on him. Things could change, of course.

I could easily see Burke being used as a trade piece, but I will be a little surprised if they waive him, as he still has two seasons left. Not sure what his independent trade value is, but have to think that he could be unloaded, if necessary. Terry might be ahead of Burke in the chopping block line, though. TT didn't have a great summer league, and I don't know how committed the new regime, who didn't sign him, are to him. 

And I guess it's still possible FN doesn't make the team. Somebody on the roster won't.

[Chicagojk]

Thanks as always for the writeups!

---

https://dcs.megaphone.fm/ESP6873849109.m...5be5a9affa

Lowe and McMahon podcast talking Wall and also talking Mavs...

Lowe had a podcast earlier in the week with Sport Illustrated Chris Herring where they both shared teams who they are higher and lower on than the majority.  I listened last night and the Mavs were discussed.  Herring was lower on the Mavs while Lowe was higher on them.   They spoke on the Mavs for about 5 minutes.

[mavsluvr]

Mavs are still strongly hopeful that Dragic will make his way on to the roster this season, but it may be weeks, and in all probability, will be months. Maybe around the trade deadline if the Raps can’t find a trade partner. Mavs really like Dragic for the playoffs and to be a Luka whisperer. 

The above is from the podcast. Dameris further added that he thinks getting Dragic at the deadline is good enough, since they only need him for the playoffs. 


I don't know that I really agree with that. I guess getting him late in the season is better than not at all, so in that sense, maybe so. 

But I fear that the later he is acquired in the season, the less help he can be in the playoffs. Somebody like Reddick (if healthy) or Peja, who essentially has one job, could realistically come in and contribute on short notice. But I don't know that a point guard you're going to heavily count on is a plug-and-play piece. Maybe as a Luka counselor. But on the court, it seems like taking advantage of that type of guy requires time to develop some chemistry. Maybe he helps more in the 2023 playoffs, if he is re-signed in the summer. 

It doesn't cost anything to sign him, other than cutting a player already on the roster, so it still might be worth doing. But I fear that the advantage may not be nearly what it would have been if he had come earlier. Hopefully, I will be proved wrong.

[KillerLeft]

But I fear that the later he is acquired in the season, the less help he can be in the playoffs. Somebody like Reddick (if healthy) or Peja, who essentially has one job, could realistically come in and contribute on short notice. But I don't know that a point guard you're going to heavily count on is a plug-and-play piece. Maybe as a Luka counselor. But on the court, it seems like taking advantage of that type of guy requires time to develop some chemistry. Maybe he helps more in the 2023 playoffs, if he is re-signed in the summer. 

I couldn't agree more, especially since Dragic is the assumed answer to what seems to be the team's biggest issue.

[mavsluvr]

MMB 9/15. Suggestions for Improving Luka's Efficiency

Mavs Moneyball has a new piece on Luka. Specifically, what can be done to improve his efficiency. The article is worth taking a look at, but it’s long, so here is a brief summary for those who don’t have the time. —

Luka’s shooting is one of the few aspects of his game standing between him and an MVP award (along with conditioning, defense, and free-throw shooting).

The statistics show that Luka is actually a better shooter than the numbers would indicate, but that his three-point shooting, particularly in the fourth quarter, is  really dragging him down.  The problem appears to be that he is taking too many extremely difficult shots. Luka leads the league in unassisted points scored by a wide margin. But he pays a price for this high amount of self-creation, in terms of efficiency. 

Last season, Luka’s efficiency from beyond the arc cratered in fourth quarters, along with the team’s offense as a whole. There were far too many times when the Mavs walked the ball slowly up the court, did not run any effective action, and relied on Luka for a bailout three. They led the league in three-point shots taken with 4 or fewer seconds left on the clock. Luka attempted most of those. 

The common explanation for Luka’s woes in the fourth quarter is lack of conditioning, and there is some truth in that. However, film analysis shows that something more is at play. Of his three-pointers in the fourth quarter, he shot 40% as the ball-handler in a PNR, 35% on spot-ups, and an atrocious 17% in isolations. How does Luka get easier shots?

He does much better when even a simple screen is set, as that gives him a split-second advantage, or a mismatch, for a less contested shot. When the Mavs can’t get anything out of their action, then Luka tries to bail them out with a late-clock isolation play. These shots tend to be next-level difficult. They are dramatic when he makes them, but he doesn’t actually complete very many. 

The fourth-quarter drop-off happened in the playoffs as well. There is no doubt that Luka needs help, but the front office failed to get him a secondary creator. So, we don’t know if Luka really wants to be this ball-dominant, or if he only plays that way because he has to. Dragic might provide a solution if he is eventually signed. 

In the absence of another creator, the improvement will have to come from within. The Mavericks have enough to be a good regular-season team. But, to advance further, they will have to  squeeze more juice out of the current roster. 

“Maybe Kidd can get the Mavericks to play faster and less deliberately in the fourth quarter. Get in early offense sets faster, so that a spread pick and roll with ten seconds left on the clock is not the only option. Because if that is the primary action and things don’t work out, we know what happens next. Another end of clock step-back three.”


https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2021/9/15/...th-quarter

There is an accompanying podcast. 

[mavsluvr]

In regard to the accompanying podcast --

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...05508?s=20

[ClutchDirk]

In regard to the accompanying podcast --

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...05508?s=20

https://media.giphy.com/media/2emJVDRMOZ...a2g9opomay&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

[mavsluvr]

https://media.giphy.com/media/2emJVDRMOZ...a2g9opomay&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g

lol

[ClutchDirk]

Just wanted to thank ML for breaking down games and podcasts into easy to read and understand posts...

Miss a game...just wait for the game recap and you will know exactly what happened and the contributing factors that won or loss us the game...

[fifteenth]

Man, know doubt, agree Clutch. Instead of creating MavsLuvrLine, ML sticks around here and blesses us. I guess, the good thing for him, is that it protects his secret identity.

[mavsluvr]

Just wanted to thank ML for breaking down games and podcasts into easy to read and understand posts...

Miss a game...just wait for the game recap and you will know exactly what happened and the contributing factors that won or loss us the game...

What a kind thing to say. Thanks, Clutch!

---

Man, know doubt, agree Clutch. Instead of creating MavsLuvrLine, ML sticks around here and blesses us. I guess, the good thing for him, is that it protects his secret identity.

hahaha

[DanSchwartzgan]

In regard to the accompanying podcast --

https://twitter.com/iztok_franko/status/...05508?s=20

I find this to be one of the more encouraging things I've seen this offseason.

How do we get better?  Eliminate January (Covid) and the late season stinkers against OKC, Sacramento (3) and Minnesota.  We finished what, 3 games behind Denver for 3rd?  I think the D will be better, so fewer above the line games.  I also happen to think health (and better outside shooting from Bullock/Brown) will take the O back to top 4-5 status.

[Kammrath]

How do we get better?  Eliminate January (Covid) and the late season stinkers against OKC, Sacramento (3) and Minnesota.  We finished what, 3 games behind Denver for 3rd?  I think the D will be better, so fewer above the line games.  I also happen to think health (and better outside shooting from Bullock/Brown) will take the O back to top 4-5 status.

And no JR.