Prediction: We will Start a Traditional Center

[Kammrath]

Closest loss was game 6, by 7 points. A game Richardson actually played reasonably well in his limited minutes. It was Kawhi going supernova and Luka below his average that won the game for Clipps. All other losses were arguably way too far apart to claim that a wing change would make such a difference.

But it was not just about JR at that point. He only got 9 mins. Maxi got 21 mins and was -13 and 0 for 4 shooting. I am very confident that Bullock would have gotten a lot of those 30 combined minutes and it is possible it would have been the difference.

[omahen]

Edit:  I think an issue with the board (and certainly with Cuban) is the lack of value placed on singles and doubles.  If it isn't a home run, it isn't worth doing.  The good news, is there is still time for the new addition.  Could be before the season opens.  Could be at the TDL.  Part of me wonders if Dallas will forgo both of those opportunities and wait until between the draft and the end of the 21-22 NBA year where we will have a trade-able pick, still have the TPE and have expiring Powell or Maxi to play around with.

Moving to a totally different discussion. I don't think it is wise for Mavs to use assets on those "singles and doubles" at this point. I don't think they are one solid player away. I can't imagine adding any of the middle quality starter level players that would make Mavs a contender. Imagine Schroeder, Bogdanovic, Hield, Markkanen type of guys. Dragic if you wish. 3rd-4th best players on the team. I think Mavs need one better 2-way player - number two or a very good number three type of guy. That is why I think Mavs are done, unless such a type becomes available. Trades this season (if any) will be limited to improving around the edges with throwing around second rounders. I think they will wait till 2022 draft.

What bothers me is the total defeat Mavs had with cap space in both 2019 and 2021. That was their opportunity to improve (without wasting assets) yet they failed. That was time when they could have added those 3rd or 4th best player type of players to the team, even if overpaying a little. But Mavs rather chose value contracts for 5th-7th best type of players. Both seasons. We could see all those sign and trades and it is not difficult to imagine signing one 3rd-4th best type and THJ while signing a wing with rMLE. I am not a Ball fan but I would have signed him for that 20 mil per and a second rounder Chicago had to pay for him.

[Mapka]

Moving to a totally different discussion. I don't think it is wise for Mavs to use assets on those "singles and doubles" at this point. I don't think they are one solid player away. I can't imagine adding any of the middle quality starter level players that would make Mavs a contender. Imagine Schroeder, Bogdanovic, Hield, Markkanen type of guys. Dragic if you wish. 3rd-4th best players on the team. I think Mavs need one better 2-way player - number two or a very good number three type of guy. That is why I think Mavs are done, unless such a type becomes available. Trades this season (if any) will be limited to improving around the edges with throwing around second rounders. I think they will wait till 2022 draft.

What bothers me is the total defeat Mavs had with cap space in both 2019 and 2021. That was their opportunity to improve (without wasting assets) yet they failed. That was time when they could have added those 3rd or 4th best player type of players to the team, even if overpaying a little. But Mavs rather chose value contracts for 5th-7th best type of players. Both seasons. We could see all those sign and trades and it is not difficult to imagine signing one 3rd-4th best type and THJ while signing a wing with rMLE. I am not a Ball fan but I would have signed him for that 20 mil per and a second rounder Chicago had to pay for him.

I kinda liked what they did in 2019 and I´m not sure what they could have done really better this year realistically. Ball was such a done deal so long, even the NBA realized. Every other useful player was paid more than we could and should offer. I hate everything they did last year.

[omahen]

I kinda liked what they did in 2019 and I´m not sure what they could have done really better this year realistically. Ball was such a done deal so long, even the NBA realized. Every other useful player was paid more than we could and should offer. I hate everything they did last year.

2019 was a disaster. All the mistakes Mavs made - Kemba left us at the altar (kind of happens to Dallas a lot), Miami trade fiasco, waiting like a teen in love for Green who was obviously in love with another "girl". This is before listing all the guys that would likely actually help Mavs - Brogdon (20), Bogdanovic (18), Young (15), Morris (15) just to name a few would enable Mavs to made all the other moves they made from 2019 on. 

Offseason is about recruiting. If you can't convince anyone you are a better destination than other teams, than you are unsuccessful by definition. If Chicago type of teams, who couldn't even make play-in last season, are seen as a more attractive destination than Mavs, then there is no hope... So let's just look at deals some players got this summer:
- Kemba signed for 9 mil, Schroeder and Mills for 6 mil. Mavs desperately need a PG and all of those at those numbers would be a reasonable gamble. Even Dinwiddie at 18 would be an upgrade over the current secondary facilitator (oh wait, we don't have one). 
- Fournier, Powell, Dinwiddie, Robinson, Trent, Ball could all be had and THJ retained with a little SnT creativity other teams showed.
- if we would lost Bullock because we wouldn't have full MLE, there were Monk, Oladipo, OPJ, Batum who all signed for vet min! Not even rMLE.

[Mapka]

2019 was a disaster. All the mistakes Mavs made - Kemba left us at the altar (kind of happens to Dallas a lot), Miami trade fiasco, waiting like a teen in love for Green who was obviously in love with another "girl". This is before listing all the guys that would likely actually help Mavs - Brogdon (20), Bogdanovic (18), Young (15), Morris (15) just to name a few would enable Mavs to made all the other moves they made from 2019 on. 

Offseason is about recruiting. If you can't convince anyone you are a better destination than other teams, than you are unsuccessful by definition. If Chicago type of teams, who couldn't even make play-in last season, are seen as a more attractive destination than Mavs, then there is no hope... So let's just look at deals some players got this summer:
- Kemba signed for 9 mil, Schroeder and Mills for 6 mil. Mavs desperately need a PG and all of those at those numbers would be a reasonable gamble. Even Dinwiddie at 18 would be an upgrade over the current secondary facilitator (oh wait, we don't have one). 
- Fournier, Powell, Dinwiddie, Robinson, Trent, Ball could all be had and THJ retained with a little SnT creativity other teams showed.
- if we would lost Bullock because we wouldn't have full MLE, there were Monk, Oladipo, OPJ, Batum who all signed for vet min! Not even rMLE.

I will never get this fixation on Brogdon. But ok. I like Seth better than all of them.

I would have taken Dinwiddie, but the Mavs really didn't care about him - they might know something we don't.

We could never get a hand on Powell - Fournier yeah ok but no big difference.

Again Ball was a Bull like a year ago.

Every other player in your list is on my do-not-touch-with-a-ten-foot-pole-list.

[DaRiv]

I'm late to this thread, but I have a couple of reactions:

"Why do we have so many centers?" - I could see the calculus being Kawhi is out for a year, and the reigning MVP is a 7 foot center in Denver, and we need to be able to throw a lot of bodies at him this year.  I love KP, but Jokic torched him last season. 

"Will we start a traditional center?" - Ok, perhaps, but let's take it a step further and ask "will traditional centers get a lot of minutes this year."  I can see Kidd seeing the value in Powell as he makes Luka's job a lot easier.  I bet Kidd would love to run more, and WCS would be a great dimension to that sort of game - who knows if Doncic decides to run this year (I am skeptical). Boban is here to sell BFF t-shirts.  Moses is probably a Jokic gamble matchup.  I bet the top 5 minutes guys this year are Doncic, DFS, KP, THJ, and Jalen.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Terry claimed Bullock could have made a big difference. I claim the big difference can only come from two spots - non Luka minutes and KP on both sides of the court. We didn't add a wing, we replaced one and the result is yet to be seen.

Well if you get to define that a “big difference” can only come in the way you define it, then by definition nothing can make a “bid difference” except what you say.  BTW, JRich got 6/9/6 minutes the final three games.  We DID add a wing.  He’s the guy who will be playing an average of 25 minutes more than what JRich played in those games in the next playoffs.

Interesting stat - NY was better when Bullock sat in playoffs. 

Isn’t that what you’d expect when you start for a team that goes 1-4 against a superior opponent?


Closest loss was game 6, by 7 points. A game Richardson actually played reasonably well in his limited minutes. It was Kawhi going supernova and Luka below his average that won the game for Clipps. All other losses were arguably way too far apart to claim that a wing change would make such a difference. 

I actually see a relationship between Kawhi going off and JRich only managing to earn 9 minutes.  My guess is even if Bullock and JRich are a wash defensively (which few believe), Bullock’s better shooting would keep him on the floor much more than JRich managed to be.  BTW, we both know final score is not indicative of how close a game might have been in the final five minutes.  I was very carefully to indicate that late game momentum can shift on a single stop or a single made three.  JRich couldn’t do either of those from the bench.


 Before claiming that Bullock is an upgrade we would have to understand what made both Wright and especially JRich worse players in Dallas than they were elsewhere and why they were essentially played off the court in playoffs. JRich was a good defender in both Miami and Philly. So why he suddenly became a bad defender in Dallas? I honestly have no answer. But that also makes me very careful before accepting as a fact, that Bullock will be a good defender, because he was a decent defender in NY.

I don't believe he is enough of an upgrade to be sure Mavs would win the Clippers series.

We have to be careful about how we keep switching the conversation from playoff series (where JRich averaged 7 minutes a game the last three games) to role and fit the entire season.  In terms of fit, I think it is easy.  If either of the former Mav’s could hit an open three, they would still be here.  They couldn’t.  I’ll add that both expected some amount of playing with the ball in their hands.  Bullock doesn’t expect that.  Defensively, I take solace in the fact that Bullock always took the other teams best perimeter scoring threat and did it on the third best D in the league.  When the playoffs rolled around, that third best D in the league raised Bullock’s minutes while the 20th best D in the league cut JRich to 7 a game the last three games.  We absolutely did add a wing…at least as far as the Clipper’s series is concerned.  

[omahen]

Terry claimed Bullock could have made a big difference. I claim the big difference can only come from two spots - non Luka minutes and KP on both sides of the court. We didn't add a wing, we replaced one and the result is yet to be seen.

Well if you get to define that a “big difference” can only come in the way you define it, then by definition nothing can make a “bid difference” except what you say.  

I don't get to define anything, I don't get this take of yours. It is my opinion where the big difference can (as in "would be able to" as in what change would make a difference and what wouldn't) come from. You can have another opinion where the difference can come from and we discuss or agree to disagree. Perhaps it is my English.

BTW, JRich got 6/9/6 minutes the final three games.  We DID add a wing.  He’s the guy who will be playing an average of 25 minutes more than what JRich played in those games in the next playoffs.

I don't agree. Number of wing options remains the same. How many minutes each of them gets depends on daily form, fit and so on. As I said I don't think it is a valid take to just take away all the bad wing minutes (JRich and others), insert new player and say these would turn into good minutes. I don't think it would work like that at all. Totally possible Bullock would play 30 minutes, but those minutes would likely come from DFS and THJ too. 

Interesting stat - NY was better when Bullock sat in playoffs. 

Isn’t that what you’d expect when you start for a team that goes 1-4 against a superior opponent?

Not necessary. Take Portland for example - starters were a nice positive in their Denver series, bench was a negative. 

I actually see a relationship between Kawhi going off and JRich only managing to earn 9 minutes.  My guess is even if Bullock and JRich are a wash defensively (which few believe), Bullock’s better shooting would keep him on the floor much more than JRich managed to be.  BTW, we both know final score is not indicative of how close a game might have been in the final five minutes.  I was very carefully to indicate that late game momentum can shift on a single stop or a single made three.  JRich couldn’t do either of those from the bench.

I actually don't think they are a wash defensively. I think it is the position Mavs puts them in preventing them to have good defensive numbers, imho. Wright also had bad defensive numbers in the playoffs a season ago. I would like to see an argument why good defenders on their former teams (JRich, Wright) turned to bad defenders with Mavs and why you are sure Bullock won't. That was my point.

Sure JRich couldn't turn the game around from the bench, but Bullock playing means it is another wing sitting. So I come back to original point. I don't think wing minutes were a problem and he is not replacing players where the problem did come from. Perhaps to better explain my view. I split Mavs into three parts: playmakers, wings, center. I think overall wing performance stays the same (or very similar) with Bullock. I don't think there is any level of certainty that this group would perform that one or two additional plays needed to win that close game. 

We have to be careful about how we keep switching the conversation from playoff series (where JRich averaged 7 minutes a game the last three games) to role and fit the entire season.  In terms of fit, I think it is easy.  If either of the former Mav’s could hit an open three, they would still be here.  They couldn’t.  I’ll add that both expected some amount of playing with the ball in their hands.  Bullock doesn’t expect that.  Defensively, I take solace in the fact that Bullock always took the other teams best perimeter scoring threat and did it on the third best D in the league.  When the playoffs rolled around, that third best D in the league raised Bullock’s minutes while the 20th best D in the league cut JRich to 7 a game the last three games.  We absolutely did add a wing…at least as far as the Clipper’s series is concerned.  

I am sticking to playoff series. I think main reason for JRich low minutes was team defense which just collapsed with him on the floor. Sure he wasn't good offensively, but he might have stayed on the court if his defense would be there. Similar thing happened to Wright a season ago.  

I agree Bullock always took opponents best player on one of best defenses, although it appears he was not guarding PG (he was guarding Huerter against Atlanta, Brooks against Memphis for example - just a quick matchup look). Doesn't matter, lets simplify the discussion. What I was trying to say, JRich did exactly the same thing in both Philly and Miami with both teams playing excellent defense (8th and 7th in the league respectively).

[omahen]

We absolutely did add a wing…at least as far as the Clipper’s series is concerned.

I don't think we will have an agreement. I think we just changed a wing and overall wing performance of the team will remain similar.

[Mapka]

I don't think we will have an agreement. I think we just changed a wing and overall wing performance of the team will remain similar.

We changed a non-shooter-wing into a shooter-wing.

That's like night and day.

You can play THJ and DFS less minutes without messing up everything.

[omahen]

We changed a non-shooter-wing into a shooter-wing.

Let's be exact. We changed a 33 % shooter with a 41 % shooter, looking at data from last season. Career number for JRich is 35 % and 39 % for Bullock. 

I am sorry, but I have my defense mechanisms from dissapointment on on full trottle, so I am sounding negative. I was sure JRich would be excellent for Mavs and it failed miserably. JRich and Bullock stats from seasons before joining Mavs don't seem that different. Please mind Bullock last year was his second best career season after 2017-18. Two seasons in between were quite different.

[Mapka]

Let's be exact. We changed a 33 % shooter with a 41 % shooter, looking at data from last season. Career number for JRich is 35 % and 39 % for Bullock. 

I am sorry, but I have my defense mechanisms from dissapointment on on full trottle, so I am sounding negative. I was sure JRich would be excellent for Mavs and it failed miserably. JRich and Bullock stats from seasons before joining Mavs don't seem that different. Please mind Bullock last year was his second best career season after 2017-18. Two seasons in between were quite different.

You being high on JRich was the only reason I didn't go full rage after trading away Seth.

It can't always work. There is no guarantee it will work with Bullock but watching his highlights (yes I know) he seems to have a faster release and more confidence in his shot.
I'm still disappointed Delon Was such a mess too.

[fifteenth]

We changed a 33 % shooter with a 41 % shooter, looking at data from last season.

The difference between 33% and 41% is considered pretty large in the NBA. Add in the fact that the 33% guy was receiving passes from Luka, while the 41% guy wasn't; and that the 41% guy won't be asked to do some of the things that the 33% failed at; and I think there are reasons to believe that the 41% guy will be a good sized upgrade.

[Kammrath]

The difference between 33% and 41% is considered pretty large in the NBA.

HUGE in the long run. 

At RB's 6.0 3PA per game that comes out to an extra 0.5 made threes a game. That is 1.5 extra points per game and over the course of the season that can easily be the difference between 2-3 spots in the standings.

[omahen]

Add in the fact that the 33% guy was receiving passes from Luka

The 33 % guy was a 34 % guy before he started receiving passes from Luka  

JRich actually had a higher ppg than Bullock.

[KillerLeft]

HUGE in the long run. 

At RB's 6.0 3PA per game that comes out to an extra 0.5 made threes a game. That is 1.5 extra points per game and over the course of the season that can easily be the difference between 2-3 spots in the standings.

Well, and really, the "lead" of the story on those numbers is the influence they will have on how opposing teams choose to defend each player. The Mavs' goal isn't just for Bullock or other catch-and-shoot guys to make 3's, though that's nice. The REAL goal is to have defenders not leave them open, creating more space for Luka, Brunson and KP.

[fifteenth]

The 33 % guy was a 34 % guy before he started receiving passes from Luka  

JRich actually had a higher ppg than Bullock.

You expect that playing with Luka will make Bullock's shooting worse? Do you think that Bullock will not be able to benefit from Luka's pocket passes the way that THJ and DFS have? If so, other than your current emotional state that you shared with us, why?

[omahen]

You expect that playing with Luka will make Bullock's shooting worse? Do you think that Bullock will not be able to benefit from Luka's pocket passes the way that THJ and DFS have? If so, other than your current emotional state that you shared with us, why?

I don't expect anything, I don't know. You said players benefit from Luka passes. I provided most recent example that is not (always) true as JRich shooting got worse despite receiving passes from Luka. This directly takes away the argument that it is certain Bullock will be better or it will be easier for him or whatever. We simply don't know.

Most of us thought JRich shooting will flourish coming from spaceless Philly to Dallas and Luka passes. It didn't.

[fifteenth]

This directly takes away the argument that it is certain

I'd never argument that anything in the NBA is certain. I'd argue that it's more likely that Bullock shoots a good bit better than JRich did. But "more likely" isn't certain. Do you think it's more likely that Bullock shoots 33%?

[omahen]

I'd never argument that anything in the NBA is certain. I'd argue that it's more likely that Bullock shoots a good bit better than JRich did. But "more likely" isn't certain. Do you think it's more likely that Bullock shoots 33%?

I would say it is most likely Bullock shoots around his career average of 39 %

Edit: less likely (but possible) he shoots better and less likely (but possible) he shoots worse