Prediction: We will Start a Traditional Center

[DanSchwartzgan]

Now that the remaining roster question involves the last two-way slot, I wanted to deal with something I’ve been thinking about for a while.  I’m not ignoring the Dragic possibility here.  I don’t think he would start anyway.  But, I’m not sure those of us (myself included) who presume we will see KP at center and either DFS or Maxi at PF have it right.  I think either Powell or Willie will start and KP will be the starting PF in the AD role.

1.  To believe otherwise, you have to believe there is another explanation for all of the centers on the roster.  Take KP out of the mix and we still have four.  OK, one is a cheap project and one is a specialist.  But, if you go back over the last two years, Dwight has been given every opportunity to hold the spot.  Willie isn’t consistent, but in spurts he’s as good as any of the backup centers employed by LAL the last two seasons and the Bucks during Kidd’s time there.

2.  The big issue here has always been “KP wants to play center”.  That is largely because center here is much more involved in the offense (under Carlisle).  But there is a new sheriff in town and the last two seasons that sheriff saw an offensive minded shot blocking big do plenty of scoring at the four.  Kidd’s best finals success came next to a seven footer playing exclusively at PF.  I bet he’s seen a play of two in his day that had some offense running through the PF spot with the lesser offensive talent playing C.  The big offensive change Kidd might bring is that PF no longer stands in the corner, but is more of a focal point.

3.  Almost all of Kidd’s time in Milwaukee had GA playing the three on the floor with a traditional C and PF.  It wasn’t until Kidd’s final partial season that GA was used more as a four.  In LAL, Kidd was witness to Lebron having two bigs next to him the vast majority of the time.  I’m not saying five-out with KP at center is dead.  But, it is probably more of a specialty lineup than the standard given Kidd’s history in LA and Milwaukee.

4.  Kidd talks a lot about D and about KP returning to NY KP.  Our minds tend to go to offense, but defensively KP played very little center in NY.  He almost always had a big next to him doing the dirty work.  His best defensive talent is as a weak-side shot blocker.  He’s not good at taking on big burly guys like Valenciunus or Jokic one on one. I get that KP will be hunted on switches, but we hopefully have added a little more D on the perimeter than we had a year ago.

I get that the “Powell Sucks” crowd will go ballistic over this (note I’m not saying Powell will start, I’m saying a traditional center will start…Could be WCS).  BTW, probably the most credible reporting on Powell that we have is that Dallas didn’t want to put him in a package for Dragic.  I think this makes sense for the rest of the roster also with Sterling Brown as more of a Green insurance policy than a rotation player.

Powell/WCS
KP/Maxi
DFS/Bullock
THJ/Green-Sterling
Luka/Brunson

I could easily see Bullock starting (he started every game but one last season) and THJ coming off the bench. That would improve our D.  

Powell/WCS
KP/Maxi
DFS/THJ
Bullock/Green-Sterling
Luka Brunson

If you do it that way, then maybe the bench can be a self-sufficient.  It would be especially so if Dragic came and sat Green/Sterling.  We’d always have a roll man/dunker on the court and Moses spends a year developing and is a cheap WCS replacement in 22/23.  Unless we make a deal for someone, Burke is our insurance PG (Terry is developmental).  We are a little thin at PF, but there are enough wings that DFS can move up if we have an injury to KP or Maxi and the wings could pick up additional minutes.

[dirkfansince1998]

Not a fan but as of now (current roster) it is a very likely scenario. No reason to enter a season with four non shooting bigs if all of them are backups.

[Arioch]

Overall, I think that makes a lot of sense. My main critique would be that it looks to me like Bullock and THJ are both getting paid like starters--and they got those contracts from the new regime. So I suspect this is more likely

Powell/WCS
KP/Maxi
Bullock/DFS
THJ/Green-Sterling
Luka/Brunson


But I think your thoughts about the big man rotation under the new regime are spot on.

[Kammrath]

GREAT post.




1) This absolutely makes the most sense of the roster we see. 

2) You make a GREAT point here, that the reason KP wanted C in DAL was because he wanted to touch the ball and be involved in the motions. In NYK (if I am not mistaken) he much preferred PF.

3) I can totally see Kidd wanting to at least start by TRYING to play "big."

4) I think this is the most important point. DP+KP in 19-20: 117.1 O, 105.3 D, +11.8 Net. I think KP's best play defensively has been alongside DP. I think it is the Mavs best chance to be a good defensive team. KP needs to be a weakside shot blocker to be at his most effective.

[Kammrath]

RE: Starting Lineup

I am not so sure DFS won't be the odd man out. I could see Bullock and THJ starting and DFS coming off the bench. Salary hierarchy would suggest that as well. Also RC is gone, so DFS might be used differently.

[BigDirk41]

I agree with Kamm on this one. If they start a traditional center, DFS will be moving to the bench. Bullock is absolutely going to start. Luka, KP, THJ and Bullock are locks to start. The 5th starter depends if they go with KP at the 5 or the 4.  I don't have strong feelings one way or the other. I'm sure it will be decided on the court like it should be.

[rocky164]

While I agree the way our roster now stands, and with Kidd’s recent experience, starting a tradition center makes sense.  But I don’t necessarily see this as our closing unit.  I think its likely KP plays the 5 in a closing lineup with Luka-THJ-Bullock-DFS.  This lineup would maximize offense and possible perimeter defense.

[omahen]

I think this are valiant thoughts but let me provide some counter arguments. 

1.  To believe otherwise, you have to believe there is another explanation for all of the centers on the roster.  Take KP out of the mix and we still have four.  OK, one is a cheap project and one is a specialist.  But, if you go back over the last two years, Dwight has been given every opportunity to hold the spot.  Willie isn’t consistent, but in spurts he’s as good as any of the backup centers employed by LAL the last two seasons and the Bucks during Kidd’s time there.

Center number is exactly the same as last season. I am not counting Brown who I think was a throw-in Mavs didn't want and will be gone if (when?) Mavs bring another player. Last season Mavs played KP almost exclusively at C. Bobi is more of an mascott than actual rotation player. So looking that way, Mavs only have Powell and WCS behind KP.

That is largely because center here is much more involved in the offense (under Carlisle).

I think it was more Luka running the offense than Carlisle and I don't think that will change. Also looking at Olympics, if it means anything at all - 1 center and 3 wings next to Luka. KP should be capable of playing exactly like Tobey was playing. That role should give him plenty of touches and maximize his abilities. I don't think we can compare abilities of KP and AD. Also, AD still played most of his time at C in the playoffs.

Our minds tend to go to offense, but defensively KP played very little center in NY.

I think basketball changed a lot since then - most of teams had true bigs, now they are getting rare. Besides, NY didn't really have good defense.

[MrGoat]

I'm expecting different rotations with Carlisle gone and we're going to have to get an idea of the way Kidd likes to run them.

My guess. WCS starts. He's the most physically similar to Tyson Chandler on the roster and I think that's how Kidd will see him. I think that's part of why we kept him. Harlabob would be on board with this as well if you look at WCS' net rating last year. I'm not sure Powell's seniority will matter as much to Kidd as it did to RC but we'll have to see it in practice before we really have an idea of what Kidd will do

[ClutchDirk]

I would rather DFS be used as a defensive starter and THJ in the JET role where he feasts off 2nd units and hopefully a sharp shooting closer who you have to keep a defender close too...

[ClutchDirk]

I would rather DFS be used as a defensive starter and THJ in the JET role where he feasts off 2nd units and hopefully a sharp shooting closer who you have to keep a defender close too...

Starters:
Luka 
Bullock
DFS
KP
Powell

Closers:
Luka
Bullock
THJ
KP
Center by Committee or matchup...

[omahen]

A couple more thoughts. I don't think Mavs can afford to play KP on worst opponent perimeter player on defense. They are already hiding Luka on that player. I think Luka is most suited to play PF on defense, especially with his current playing weight.

The thing I didn't understand from the past season was why Mavs (almost) never played PnR with KP and Maxi. It was almost always PnP. A season before they were both successful in those actions. I think a role as Tobey played in Olympics is perfect for KP and he is a far better player.

I don't know what Mavs will do, but imho playing KP at center is the only thing that makes sense. My only dilemma would be if the fifth starter is Maxi or Bullock.

[ReunionMav]

I think how well DFS can defend his match up each game combined with how much his hustle plays and 3 point shooting are effecting the game will determine how much he plays. Some nights he tries hard but really can’t defend his guy. 

He might make a whole lot more difference with the second unit. It is nice to have Bullock for a legitimate option.

[KillerLeft]

I agree with the logic about the current roster (lots of bigs), but here are some equally relevant factors, imo:

1) They have said over and over that getting KP more involved is a priority. I think we assume this means more iso touches at the elbows or in the post, which absolutely will not be effective if there's a non-shooting big in the dunker spot. 

2) It could also mean more involvement of KP in the 2-man game with Luka. Again, I wonder about the wisdom of implementing this with a non-shooting big in the dunker spot. 

3) If a non-shooting big is on the floor in either of the above scenarios and NOT in the dunker spot, his defender will still be in the paint in either scenario. 

4) Playing KP with "traditional" center (I think that's exactly what KP is, tbqh, but I'm rolling with the narrative here) is, imo, the best possible way to ensure he has absolutely no chance at positively impacting the game on defense. 

Now, if the plan is to run a lot of two-man stuff with Powell or someone else, with KP spacing, fine, only that would NOT be involving KP more, as they have repeatedly said is their mission. And, I don't believe for a second that it's what KP wants, based on the many examples of him being asked. I suppose it's possible, though, and you could even convince me that it's the best path to choose (KP's opinion be damned). 

Again, I totally think this would help to explain the current makeup of the roster, so there's some supportive logic there. 

However, all-in-all, if this prediction winds up being correct, it will detract significantly from the early "benefit of the doubt" I have for both Harrison and Kidd. I think it would signal the coming of some major disappointment in our near future.

[Kammrath]

Playing KP with "traditional" center (I think that's exactly what KP is, tbqh, but I'm rolling with the narrative here) is, imo, the best possible way to ensure he has absolutely no chance at positively impacting the game on defense. 

This is the response to this I think:

Have we EVER seen KP effective defensively as the only big? (this is a serious question I have)

We have definitely seen him effective on D (I would argue the most effective in his career) when he has another big on the floor who takes the main big man matchup away from him and allows him to float as a rim protector.

[Kammrath]

The thing I didn't understand from the past season was why Mavs (almost) never played PnR with KP

This has been 100% my biggest issue with RC coaching KP. Force him to do pick and roll and develop that with Luka! But I have wondered if KP refuses to roll? Or if they didn't want that because of injury risk? 

Luka NEEDS a pick and roll partner (see my title) desperately. I THOUGHT KP would be an awesome one, but we have barely seen that in the last couple years. WHY?

[mavsluvr]

However, all-in-all, if this prediction winds up being correct, it will detract significantly from the early "benefit of the doubt" I have for both Harrison and Kidd.

Good points in your post. 


I honestly don't know how Harrison and Kidd really feel about KP and systems based on KP. 

This situation has all the earmarks of Cuban telling Harrison and Kidd from the first that he wanted to give KP another season, while not giving them any more help to make it work.

[KillerLeft]

Have we EVER seen KP effective defensively as the only big? (this is a serious question I have)

We have definitely seen him effective on D (I would argue the most effective in his career) when he has another big on the floor who takes the main big man matchup away from him and allows him to float as a rim protector.

I don't think he's going to be effective on D, PERIOD, unless he's noticeably better off this season in health, conditioning and mindset. 

But, with the type of player he is and what I think of as his collection of strengths and weaknesses, I don't really envision any scenario in which he's a positive on D not playing center. And, I'm really not interested in any data from before his time with the Mavericks, as A) the game has changed a ton recently, and B) NY wasn't a good team. I don't think we can really compare the results of how he was used there on either side of the ball to what we hope to see from him here, for a playoff team built around another player.

In fact, I'd pretty much point to any way he was used in NY as what NOT to do. He was younger, with a shorter injury injury history and the team was being built around him. Unsuccessfully, actually. Not to mention that, AGAIN, the offensive game (and of course, how teams approach defending the offensive game) has changed significantly since then. 

If we argued for two hours about this and you convinced me KP could be better as a 4 (I doubt you could) my thinking would shift back to "let's get rid of him at any cost" because I don't care what's best for KP - I care what's best for the Mavs, and I do not believe playing a player like him in a role like that is a road that leads to a championship. It's a dead end.

---

Luka NEEDS a pick and roll partner (see my title) desperately. I THOUGHT KP would be an awesome one, but we have barely seen that in the last couple years. WHY?

Imo, putting an ADDITIONAL 5 on the floor with KP for extended periods of time this season would signal the end of this dream. 

Since KP hasn't really developed an effective iso game yet, I believe the quickest path to relevance for him on the offensive side of the ball is to get him involved with Luka in the two-man game. Like you, I'm not sure what the problem has been with this, but I'm 99% sure trying to do it with WCS in the paint isn't going to help. If someone like that is on the floor, KP will be standing in the corner. Period.

[KillerLeft]

Three scenarios:

1) KP plays center on both sides of the ball, with a big wing or uncommonly athletic 4 next to him. This could be successful if KP is ready to play this year and has the right mindset, AND if that guy at the 4 is up to it and the right fit. If either/both of those conditions aren't met, I think it fails.

2) KP as the 5 on defense and spacing the floor on offense, while a special fit player (let's say Powell) reverses that by playing the 4 (running his balls off) on defense and is the primary screen-setter on offense. We've seen this work before, and it could be great...IF Porzingis is ok with NOT "touching the ball" much on offense. 

3) Having a Powell (or Boban, or WCS, or Brown) out there and running the actions through Luka/KP. This, imo, would be truly counterproductive and (I don't mind saying) stupid. Having a player who can't shoot perform the role of a spacer is no longer something you see good teams try. 

I sincerely hope it's either 1 or 2, and we don't have to watch this team try to make scenario 3 work this season, like ever. I want to believe Kidd is smarter than that, but I suppose we don't know yet.

My pessimistic takeaway: Can't wait until making Porzingis fit into a winning strategy is some other team's problem.

[Jason Terry]

DP, WCS and Brown as the screen setting and offensive glass crashing rollers. KP and Maxi as the pick and pop shooters. Save their bodies while the other guys do the dirty work. 

This does limit KP and yes will probably be standing in the corner often. It makes it harder for him to prove he’s worth max money IMO. 

Agreed we will go for a Lakers approach. If you look though you will see that Howard and Gasol barely play in the playoffs. Davis plays the 5 in crucial stretches. KP still needs to be able to play 5

This is more our regular season lineup