Prediction: We will Start a Traditional Center

[Chicagojk]

Now that the remaining roster question involves the last two-way slot, I wanted to deal with something I’ve been thinking about for a while.  I’m not ignoring the Dragic possibility here.  I don’t think he would start anyway.  But, I’m not sure those of us (myself included) who presume we will see KP at center and either DFS or Maxi at PF have it right.  I think either Powell or Willie will start and KP will be the starting PF in the AD role.

1.  To believe otherwise, you have to believe there is another explanation for all of the centers on the roster.  Take KP out of the mix and we still have four.  OK, one is a cheap project and one is a specialist.  But, if you go back over the last two years, Dwight has been given every opportunity to hold the spot.  Willie isn’t consistent, but in spurts he’s as good as any of the backup centers employed by LAL the last two seasons and the Bucks during Kidd’s time there.

2.  The big issue here has always been “KP wants to play center”.  That is largely because center here is much more involved in the offense (under Carlisle).  But there is a new sheriff in town and the last two seasons that sheriff saw an offensive minded shot blocking big do plenty of scoring at the four.  Kidd’s best finals success came next to a seven footer playing exclusively at PF.  I bet he’s seen a play of two in his day that had some offense running through the PF spot with the lesser offensive talent playing C.  The big offensive change Kidd might bring is that PF no longer stands in the corner, but is more of a focal point.

3.  Almost all of Kidd’s time in Milwaukee had GA playing the three on the floor with a traditional C and PF.  It wasn’t until Kidd’s final partial season that GA was used more as a four.  In LAL, Kidd was witness to Lebron having two bigs next to him the vast majority of the time.  I’m not saying five-out with KP at center is dead.  But, it is probably more of a specialty lineup than the standard given Kidd’s history in LA and Milwaukee.

4.  Kidd talks a lot about D and about KP returning to NY KP.  Our minds tend to go to offense, but defensively KP played very little center in NY.  He almost always had a big next to him doing the dirty work.  His best defensive talent is as a weak-side shot blocker.  He’s not good at taking on big burly guys like Valenciunus or Jokic one on one. I get that KP will be hunted on switches, but we hopefully have added a little more D on the perimeter than we had a year ago.

I get that the “Powell Sucks” crowd will go ballistic over this (note I’m not saying Powell will start, I’m saying a traditional center will start…Could be WCS).  BTW, probably the most credible reporting on Powell that we have is that Dallas didn’t want to put him in a package for Dragic.  I think this makes sense for the rest of the roster also with Sterling Brown as more of a Green insurance policy than a rotation player.

Powell/WCS
KP/Maxi
DFS/Bullock
THJ/Green-Sterling
Luka/Brunson

I could easily see Bullock starting (he started every game but one last season) and THJ coming off the bench. That would improve our D.  

Powell/WCS
KP/Maxi
DFS/THJ
Bullock/Green-Sterling
Luka Brunson

If you do it that way, then maybe the bench can be a self-sufficient.  It would be especially so if Dragic came and sat Green/Sterling.  We’d always have a roll man/dunker on the court and Moses spends a year developing and is a cheap WCS replacement in 22/23.  Unless we make a deal for someone, Burke is our insurance PG (Terry is developmental).  We are a little thin at PF, but there are enough wings that DFS can move up if we have an injury to KP or Maxi and the wings could pick up additional minutes.

I guess it could work during the regular season, but not sure we have the right guys to pair with KP.    I keep going back to Zach Lowe's podcast with Tim McMahon right before Free Agency where he was adamant KP needs to play center.   I could see Powell fitting well at times but I think that is more of a regular season move and with the rest of our roster it is pretty limited overall.

What was so frustrating about the 2020 draft is I think Xavier Tillman would have been perfect for that type of role.    Not sure how well it would have worked in the playoffs but it would be a much better stopgap than our current options.  Powell is limited on defense and I am just not a fan of WCS basketball IQ.   So it will always be a mix and match with those guys and not something that works against every team imo. 

Although, with the limited moves this offseason we are really limited at the moment.  Maybe Powell is the best option for regular season wins.   Not sure though.   If this was the plan though, I would have much preferred a different path this offseason targeting a guy who combined both WCS and Powell's strengths.   I don't think that player is a 20 million a year player either.  .    I am not crazy with either WCS or Powell starting, but as is it could possibly be our best path.

[KillerLeft]

Agreed we will go for a Lakers approach. If you look though you will see that Howard and Gasol eventually get fewer minutes in the playoffs. Davis plays the 5 in crucial stretches. KP still needs to be able to play 5

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I have no idea what the Mavs will do.  We've got Cuban and Kidd running the team.  There probably aren't many braintrusts around the NBA I'd have less faith in.

I tend to agree with Zach Lowe that the Mavs highest ceiling (as a contender) is with KP playing center surrounded by four switchable wings.

[ItsGoTime]

I thought we just had a quote from KP saying he prefers to play C? The post came right after Kidd visited him. Was that an old tweet, or was KP telling Kidd something through the media? 

Either way, if I had to bet right now, I’d bet the Lakers way of KP in the AD role until the playoffs or at least L5M of every game. The lineup shown earlier of Luka/THJ/Bullock/DFS/KP closing looks about right with Maxi and JB as the main subs during that time.

[KillerLeft]

I thought we just had a quote from KP saying he prefers to play C? The post came right after Kidd visited him. Was that an old tweet, or was KP telling Kidd something through the media? 

There was a recent tweet to that effect, but I think it was from Dwain Price, which means that he could just be getting around to pointing out something that everyone has known for months. He's fairly prone to playing catchup on some pretty basic things.

[omahen]

There was a recent tweet to that effect, but I think it was from Dwain Price, which means that he could just be getting around to pointing out something that everyone has known for months. He's fairly prone to playing catchup on some pretty basic things.

That tweet was from 2020, I don't know why it was published again

[ItsGoTime]

There was a recent tweet to that effect, but I think it was from Dwain Price, which means that he could just be getting around to pointing out something that everyone has known for months. He's fairly prone to playing catchup on some pretty basic things.

Edit: Omahen answered!

[DanSchwartzgan]

This has been 100% my biggest issue with RC coaching KP. Force him to do pick and roll and develop that with Luka! But I have wondered if KP refuses to roll? Or if they didn't want that because of injury risk? 

Luka NEEDS a pick and roll partner (see my title) desperately. I THOUGHT KP would be an awesome one, but we have barely seen that in the last couple years. WHY?

I’m with you.  I totally reject the idea that the offense can’t work with a non-shooter (Powell or WCS) in the lineup.  In fact, the data says just the opposite.  Some of our best offensive lineups the last two seasons with KP have also included a rim rolling center.  Also, there are other things to be run besides KP in the corner and Powell or Willie setting screens.  Almost every team in the league deals with at least one non-shooting big in the lineup.

I think the DFS vs. THJ vs. Bullock take was the most interesting one.  Do you try to set a defensive tone with DFS and Bullock playing at the same time?  If you follow what has happened in LA and Milwaukee and also start Powell or WCS, then THJ is pushed to “the Terry role”.  In the playoffs and in end-of-game situations, when things tighten up in the lane, maybe you finish with KP and the three wings with Luka or KP/Maxi and two of the wings with Luka.  I found it interesting how consistently Kidd played Snell as a starter over multiple seasons.  Not sure who is out Snell, Bullock or DFS or both.  But there is a role for one or both to be very consistently in the starting lineup.

Maxi, Bullock, THJ, DFS, Powell, KP and Luka have all started 80% of the games they played in one of the last two seasons.  That is seven potential starters…three bigs, three wings and Luka for Kidd to mix and match.  The least positionally flexible of the bunch is Powell (and WCS).  One might say…wasn’t that true last year too?  Yes, but what we found out over time is they were trying to hide JRich.  I don’t think that will be the case with 40% shooting and take the other team’s best 1-3 guy Bullock on the squad.  If you buy the idea that LAL while Kidd was there and Milwaukee while Kidd was in charge almost always played two bigs, then almost anything can happen amongst Maxi, DFS, THJ and Bullock.  If you don’t buy that one of Powell or Willie will start, then the roster doesn’t make much sense.

[Kammrath]

If you don’t buy that one of Powell or Willie will start, then the roster doesn’t make much sense.

I thought a couple weeks ago that a September trade would be coming for the Mavs where DP or KP is out. It is hard to keep the faith on that, but I am going to stick to my prediction. I still think Ben Simmons could be clogging up the trade market and still think there is a real chance he is dealt before training camp (think PHI is just posturing). 

But if I am wrong on that, then I am with you on the roster construction.

[Chicagojk]

I thought a couple weeks ago that a September trade would be coming for the Mavs where DP or KP is out. It is hard to keep the faith on that, but I am going to stick to my prediction. I still think Ben Simmons could be clogging up the trade market and still think there is a real chance he is dealt before training camp (think PHI is just posturing). 

But if I am wrong on that, then I am with you on the roster construction.

I have not idea of knowing this, but just reading the tea leaves I think the mavs were caught off guard with Miami picking up Goran's option.    

I think clearly plan A was to get Lowry's commitment and then work with Toronto to see if they could have figured out a way for both Lowry and Hardaway.  Although looking back, this would have been a tough challenge with Toronto.  

When that didn't happen, I think the plan was to resign Hardaway, Look for a three and D wing like Batum or Bullock ( I think it was reported Dallas was interested in Batum).  Then use the rest of the money in the MLE range to sign Goran.    
When Miami picked up the option for Goran, Dallas was left without a dance partner and had to scramble as most player already had informal agreements.   WCS was picked up because they determined he was more valuable at 4 million than trying to find a better player at 4 million...not really as a guy who they have grand plans for.  Plus, maybe he could eventually be used in a trade.    Moses Brown was picked up as he may be a low cost asset on a cheap deal.   And Sterling Brown was signed for a small # with the BAE or the room they had left over.  

That is how I am reading the tea leaves.  Maybe it is wildly off, but it makes sense to me.  Dallas would have improved around the edges (something I was against at end of the season), but kept flexible moving forward.

[KillerLeft]

Some of our best offensive lineups the last two seasons with KP have also included a rim rolling center.  Also, there are other things to be run besides KP in the corner and Powell or Willie setting screens.

Yes, yes. We've been over this for over a year now - I agree! I'm a Powell fan too, remember? 

But, KP was NOT as involved as he (and many here) wanted him to be when they played that way (with Powell). I honestly don't think this is very debatable at this point. That's all I'm saying - it has to be factored into our thinking somewhere, right? 

Also, if the team is to be built around Luka's pick and roll game, which I suppose isn't a known thing now that Kidd is here but sure seems like the best way forward, given all of Luka's previous experience and how the roster is set up, what other things do you see them implementing that have the ball in KP's hands, but are NOT negatively impacted by the presence of someone like WCS? I'm always eager to learn new things.

[Kammrath]

During KP's first year there were three blocks of play:

10/23/2019 - 12/29/2019
31 gms
17.3 pts (40%/34%/72%)
9.4 rbds
1.5 asts
2.1 blks
0.6 stls
-1.7 Off
-2.6 Def



1/21/2020 - 3/11/2020
20 gms
22.3 pts (44%/35%/83%)
9.6 rbds
2.2 asts
2.0 blks
0.9 stls
+10.0 Off
+5.6 Def


7/31/2020 - 8/11/2020
6 gms
30.5 pts (47%/38%/89%)
9.5 rbds
2.2 asts
1.5 blks
0.8 stls
+3.4 Off
-17.9 Def


His middle stretch of 20 games was the one good run of overall D that KP has had in DAL. DP was injured and out. Luka was in and out with injury. The lineups were really inconsistent. Sometimes Maxi started, sometimes he didn't. 

And contrary to popular belief "terrible D" KP started in the bubble BEFORE the injury.

[mavsluvr]

I have not idea of knowing this, but just reading the tea leaves I think the mavs were caught off guard with Miami picking up Goran's option.    

I think clearly plan A was to get Lowry's commitment and then work with Toronto to see if they could have figured out a way for both Lowry and Hardaway.  Although looking back, this would have been a tough challenge with Toronto.  

When that didn't happen, I think the plan was to resign Hardaway, Look for a three and D wing like Batum or Bullock ( I think it was reported Dallas was interested in Batum).  Then use the rest of the money in the MLE range to sign Goran.    
When Miami picked up the option for Goran, Dallas was left without a dance partner and had to scramble as most player already had informal agreements.   WCS was picked up because they determined he was more valuable at 4 million than trying to find a better player at 4 million...not really as a guy who they have grand plans for.  Plus, maybe he could eventually be used in a trade.    Moses Brown was picked up as he may be a low cost asset on a cheap deal.   And Sterling Brown was signed for a small # with the BAE or the room they had left over.  

That is how I am reading the tea leaves.  Maybe it is wildly off, but it makes sense to me.  Dallas would have improved around the edges (something I was against at end of the season), but kept flexible moving forward.

That could well be a pretty close approximation of what happened. 

A few other things around the edges I saw reported from sources I consider credible --

Plan 1A was to take a shot at Kawhi. Kawhi, however, was disinclined to lead his suitors on a merry chase LeBron-style, and early on, told the teams he had no interest in (including Dallas) that they should move on. Good on him, I guess. 

Ideally, they hadn't really hoped to re-sign Willie or Boban. Willie may have been the situation you describe, as the player they considered the best guy realistically available for the price at that point. I don't know what the Boban signing/contract was about -- maybe they got spooked by having to rely on him heavily in the playoffs, and thought they needed a guy of his ilk? At any rate, his signing wasn't considered as something that was likely to prevent them from doing whatever else they wanted to do. 

Moses Brown was not a guy they intended to pick up -- was just a price of dumping J Rich. They were intending to hold Moses out, pending a determination of whether he could be used as trade filler. 

They had a degree of interest in some other guys, but either didn't have the assets to get them, or considered the asking price too high. 

All told, they improved the team slightly around the edges at best, but maintained flexibility going forward, as you point out.

[dirkfansince1998]

And contrary to popular belief "terrible D" KP started in the bubble BEFORE the injury.

Don´t think that´s a secret. @"KillerLeft" has been on it from the very beginning. Same for me. The eye opener was a game against the Blazers. Lillard dropped 61pts on the Mavs. Nearly all of them involved KP defending the pick and roll.

[IamDougieFresh]

Luka - Dragic - Terry
THJ - Brunson- Green
Bullock - Brown
DFS - Maxi
KP - WCS - Boban

These are our 13 active when the season starts or I make an angry post.

[KillerLeft]

And contrary to popular belief "terrible D" KP started in the bubble BEFORE the injury.

I know that’s right! I don’t think I will ever forget that Portland game, as long as I live.

[Mapka]

During KP's first year there were three blocks of play:

10/23/2019 - 12/29/2019
31 gms
17.3 pts (40%/34%/72%)
9.4 rbds
1.5 asts
2.1 blks
0.6 stls
-1.7 Off
-2.6 Def



1/21/2020 - 3/11/2020
20 gms
22.3 pts (44%/35%/83%)
9.6 rbds
2.2 asts
2.0 blks
0.9 stls
+10.0 Off
+5.6 Def


7/31/2020 - 8/11/2020
6 gms
30.5 pts (47%/38%/89%)
9.5 rbds
2.2 asts
1.5 blks
0.8 stls
+3.4 Off
-17.9 Def


His middle stretch of 20 games was the one good run of overall D that KP has had in DAL. DP was injured and out. Luka was in and out with injury. The lineups were really inconsistent. Sometimes Maxi started, sometimes he didn't. 

And contrary to popular belief "terrible D" KP started in the bubble BEFORE the injury.

The only thing this "stats" tell me is, this kind of stats is useless in a small sample size.

What does Dame going full Supernova against anyone and anything has to do with KP playing good or bad defence.

Don't get me wrong, I think the Mavs played aweful as a whole in the pre-playoffs bubble. KPs offense was the bright spot.

[dirkfansince1998]

What does Dame going full Supernova against anyone and anything has to do with KP playing good or bad defence.

Dame´s career high is just one of many examples but him scoring 61pts just spamming high pick and roll against KP is concerning. Other teams are doing the same and so far KP and the Mavs had no answer for it. They tried a lot. Nothing worked.
And it´s not only about KP. It´s the league wide trend to hunt mismatches and expose the weak link on defense. When it mattered the Jazz tried to hide Gobert on the worst shooter. Against the Mavs it was DFS. Against the Clippers it was Mann. Leading to career highs for both of them. Same case for Embiid. Whenever Simmons was on the bench Young and Capela scored at will. He had no answer and gave up the open floater or lob dunk every single time. Compared to KP both are way better defenders but even the best traditional bigs can be turned into defensive liabilities. The days where teams could get away with drop coverage are over.

[DallasMaverick]

Dame´s career high is just one of many examples but him scoring 61pts just spamming high pick and roll against KP is concerning. Other teams are doing the same and so far KP and the Mavs had no answer for it. They tried a lot. Nothing worked.
And it´s not only about KP. It´s the league wide trend to hunt mismatches and expose the weak link on defense. When it mattered the Jazz tried to hide Gobert on the worst shooter. Against the Mavs it was DFS. Against the Clippers it was Mann. Leading to career highs for both of them. Same case for Embiid. Whenever Simmons was on the bench Young and Capela scored at will. He had no answer and gave up the open floater or lob dunk every single time. Compared to KP both are way better defenders but even the best traditional bigs can be turned into defensive liabilities. The days where teams could get away with drop coverage are over.

Seems like the trick is to have the right tools in your kit to match up (or overload) against your opponents' lineup.  For example, the Mavericks never had enough wings to match up with the Clippers.  They just put 5 wings out there and hunted mismatches.

[KillerLeft]

Seems like the trick is to have the right tools in your kit to match up (or overload) against your opponents' lineup.  For example, the Mavericks never had enough wings to match up with the Clippers.  They just put 5 wings out there and hunted mismatches.

Absolutely. The ability to attack in different ways is really important, imo. 

The mistake people (and teams) make is thinking they can accomplish this by using down-the-depth-chart specialists. To be truly competitive, you kind of need to be able to jumble your top 8-9 guys into different lineups, each resulting in a different play-style, to accomplish that versatility. When "matching up" with your opponent calls for playing someone like Boban in the playoffs against one of the better teams in the league, something has gone terribly wrong.