Mavs rotation

[DallasBasketball]

I have several thoughts on this idea that Timmy didn't flourish as a bench player and only showed promise as a starter.  Before I share them I'll share some analysis I did of Timmy’s stats as a starter vs coming off of the bench over the last two years.

I tried attaching a screenshot, though I'm not really sure how to do it.  Hopefully it shows up.

Tip top analysis.

I wonder how much of these statistics are influenced by his nature to be streaky? (When he’s playing bad he gets relegated to the bench; also when he’s playing good he gets promoted to start) do you have any feelings on this as a true/false context?

[ItsGoTime]

Good stuff soog. It also should be said that he got his previous contract based on coming off the bench in Atl. Maybe what the numbers say more than anything is that he flourishes when he has a set role. In 19-20 he got the start and kept it through the rest of the season, those 58 games show much better numbers than the 13. In 20-21 he basically played the same amount of games in each spot (his role in each spot was solidified each time). 

When he knows what he’s doing during the game he can prepare properly. Kinda goes against RC’s “be ready boys” mantra. I can imagine that mantra either gets old or is useless on some players, I will also accept that it does work well for others.

[soog]

Tip top analysis.

I wonder how much of these statistics are influenced by his nature to be streaky? (When he’s playing bad he gets relegated to the bench; also when he’s playing good he gets promoted to start) do you have any feelings on this as a true/false context?

Digging into it, I think it's something ever more simple than that.  The 13 games he came off of the bench in the 19/20 season were the first 13 games of the season.  He was moved into the starting line up on 11/20/2019 and everything changed.  I've added two rows to show his stats before and after 11/19/2019.  You can see that he has more or less been the same player after that date even after he was moved back to the bench for periods this year.  I still have several questions though:

1) Why has he been so consistent since 11/19/2019 regardless of whether he starts?  
- My guess is it could be the confidence in knowing the mavs are committed to him and he's not just a "throw in" from the KP trade. I’d also guess it has something to do with having a more defined/known role than he had prior to this point which was mentioned by @ItsGoTime.
2) Why is there a very minor drop off in performance when coming off of the bench?  
- My guess here is that Luka makes everything easier for everyone.  I would take that one step further and say that KP, regardless of your feelings about him, does the same.  When Timmy starts he is the 3rd person defenses are worrying about.  When Timmy comes off of the bench he is likely doing it with one of either Luka or KP going out meaning that he becomes more of a focal point of the opposing team's defense and possibly drawing the better wing defender in the case of Luka being out.

Regardless of those questions, this gives me confidence that Timmy has been and will continue to be consistent in his performance regardless of whether he starts or comes off of the bench given that is what he has shown the ability to do over the last 134 games.  And while I don't think we should "throw out" the 13 games he came off of the bench to start 2019, I do think they are outliers and don't support the argument that "Timmy is terrible as a 6th man".



   

[soog]

THJ: "Hey so of course I want to come back, but the Pelicans are offering me more money. I've got that starters spot locked down here, right?"

Ok, now I want to get back to these imaginary negotiations, let’s assume that was actually Timmy’s position.  If I were the Mavs I would have responded with something like this:

“Tim, do you remember when you came here 2 years ago?  Man we were so excited we got the knicks to send you here.  And you know what?  Even though you had never played here before, it felt like you were finally home.  Your heart, your effort, your pursuit of excellence - you embody what we’re all about here.  I know you have had a lot of success other places in this league, but it just feels like you were always meant to be a part of our family.

Now we really have the opportunity to build something special here and you are a huge part of that.  We want you to be one of the cornerstones of this franchise for years to come.  What you bring to the court is exactly what we need.  Not only do you thrive on the court next to Luka, you also have the ability and mental fortitude to take over a game and lead a team yourself.  Not many people in this league, or in the world for that matter, have the ability to do both.  That’s one of the things that makes you so important to our franchise, to our family.  

When we look our team now we have two star guards, you and Luka.  We expect both of you to log heavy minutes every game.  We will try to get you rest when we can, but we may need you to put in 36 minutes a night.  We know you have the ability to handle that and we know you are the sort of player that loves carrying that sort of burden.  

Now as the team is currently constructed our weakest point is what happens when both you and Luka leave the game. We immediately lose the shot creation and scoring that makes you two so amazing together.  Our thinking now is that you could be the drum beat that keeps our offense rolling by staggering you with Luka to start the game, this way we have no big drop off when we start our rotations.  We’ve looked at your numbers, over the last 134 games you’ve played with us you have shown the amazing ability to be just as efficient as the first man off of the bench as you are when you start.  Not many people in this league can do that.  So we think one key to our success this season is moving from strength to stretch; from Luka to you.  We’ll need you to come in and take over games when Luka comes off the floor in that first rotation.

Now here is where we’re really going to ask a lot of you - we also want you to finish out games to.  Like we said, you’re one of our cornerstones, one of our best players.  So we want need you on the court in crunch time.  We need you on the court to close out games because you are one of the best in the league at doing that.

Tim, we want you to be featured throughout every game, we want you to be 6th man of the year, we want you to be our Ironman, we want you to be a closer, we want to build a championship team around you and Luka, we want you to be a part of our family for years to come.  And we promise if you choose to be a part of our family long term, we’ll make sure you are well compensated.  What do you say? Want to build something special here?”

[fifteenth]

Can I be Tim?

Tim - That's a lot of words to tell me you want me to come off the bench.

[soog]

Can I be Tim?

Tim - That's a lot of words to tell me you want me to come off the bench.

Haha, that was pretty funny

[ItsGoTime]

Can I be Tim?

Tim - That's a lot of words to tell me you want me to come off the bench.

My reply to that would be.


Maybe, maybe not. That will be up to coach Kidd and what he feels is the best way for the team to win. What we’re saying is that right now, we ALL think of you as the guy we just described.

[Mapka]

Can I be Tim?

Tim - That's a lot of words to tell me you want me to come off the bench.

It's more like:

"So, you don't believe in me? And think I'm stupid?"

Winking his agent to get the deal done with NO.

[fifteenth]

My reply to that would be.


Maybe, maybe not. That will be up to coach Kidd and what he feels is the best way for the team to win. What we’re saying is that right now, we ALL think of you as the guy we just described.

Tim - So, you just told me you want me to come off the bench.  And now you're telling me it's up to coach. What are talking about here? The vibes are not immaculate right now.

[ItsGoTime]

Tim - So, you just told me you want me to come off the bench.  And now you're telling me it's up to coach. What are talking about here? The vibes are not immaculate right now.

I don’t care if you come off the bench or not. I think you are an important part of what we’re building here and I’m paying you accordingly. I’m not gonna tell you what you want to hear as far as a guaranteed spot on the team. I’m gonna guarantee a full 4 year contract. If that is not enough for you, I wish you well other than when you play against us.

[Branduil]

I don’t care if you come off the bench or not. I think you are an important part of what we’re building here and I’m paying you accordingly. I’m not gonna tell you what you want to hear as far as a guaranteed spot on the team. I’m gonna guarantee a full 4 year contract. If that is not enough for you, I wish you well other than when you play against us.

If Nico says that we're probably talking about his failure to secure our own free agents right now, and talking about how cheap Cuban is to not pay his market value.

[ItsGoTime]

If Nico says that we're probably talking about his failure to secure our own free agents right now, and talking about how cheap Cuban is to not pay his market value.

Not so sure THJ is as frail as that, but think what you want. Not a single person here knows what was said in that negotiation.

[ItsGoTime]

#nicotiator

[fifteenth]

Tim - Nico, I don't know who these other people are or who let them in, but don't come at me with this "frail" thing based in what they're saying. You and me are on the same page about Coach making the lineups. The problem is that before you came in the room Mark was giving me a long speech full of BS about how awesome it would be for me to come off the bench. I'm not the source of this confusion.

[ItsGoTime]

Nicotiator - So we have a deal!

[fifteenth]

Tim - I need free season tickets for my dad. If you're not sure whether you should day yes about that,  look at the stats.

[ItsGoTime]

Nicotiator - Can I throw in a private jet ride to make sure he comes? MARK!!!!

[fifteenth]

Deal

[ItsGoTime]

And THAT is how the Nicotiator DO!

[DallasBasketball]

Great, so Timmy is still signed? Just checking. I was worried there.