Mavs rotation

[omahen]

Looking at the current team, I have several questions. I will let who starts or comes from bench aside at this point and just look at minutes played on positions 1-3.

Last season Mavs that remain on the team:
Luka: 34 mpg, sounds reasonable, difficult to see less minutes
THJ: 28 mpg, sounds reasonable, difficult to see less minutes
DFS: 32 mpg, perhaps a bit on a high side, could play a bit less if Mavs had effective replacement
Brunson: 25 mpg, sounds reasonable if we want to keep him
Burke: 15 mpg, not needed
JRich: 30 mpg
Green 11 mpg (played only 39 games)

I would guess Bullock takes JRich minutes which basically reflects his load in NY. I think Brown takes Burke minutes. There are probably some reserves by playing small ball with DFS or Luka at PF. 

The questions:
- where does Green take his minutes he desperately needs if Mavs want to develop him? Or does it make more sense to trade him now, as he will have even less value next season.
- needless to say there are no available minutes for Terry, but I doubt he will be ready to contribute
- why would Mavs keep Burke? I guess it is not easy to trade him
- if Mavs get a facilitator, where will he get his minutes? I guess Mavs would have to play more small ball, which makes Powell and WCS even more redundant (not to mention the other two back up centers). But then it makes no sense to bring another PF. Or would this mean that one of regular minutes guys from last season would be on the move?

[DallasBasketball]

Is there any reason to assume Tim goes back to the bench? I don’t think it’s impossible, in fact I think it’s very possible he takes back over as the main cog scoring from the 2nd unit. But even if that happens, I think there’s another good chance he ends up back in the starting line up again. 

So going into camp I gotta assume Tim is the starter and it’s up to Bullock to put himself in that line up. He can take Tim’s spot bc Tim is an effective 6th man or he can take Powell/Kleber’s spot and allow us to run a smaller line up 1-4 w KP at five. Ultimately this is what I hope to see more often than not. 

But here I am operating as if Carlisle is still making the rotations. Who knows what Kidd will do!

More defense and more activity seems to be the direction intended by signing Bullock, and I think that’s continuing the thought process of how to build a contender around Luka that began with the old regime. So it should be interesting if anything looks markedly different under Kidd, the personnel being almost the same, but a few tweaks and fresh start can go a long way

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

The questions:
- where does Green take his minutes he desperately needs if Mavs want to develop him? Or does it make more sense to trade him now, as he will have even less value next season.
- needless to say there are no available minutes for Terry, but I doubt he will be ready to contribute
- why would Mavs keep Burke? I guess it is not easy to trade him
- if Mavs get a facilitator, where will he get his minutes? I guess Mavs would have to play more small ball, which makes Powell and WCS even more redundant (not to mention the other two back up centers). But then it makes no sense to bring another PF. Or would this mean that one of regular minutes guys from last season would be on the move?

Green will primarily play at SG and would be competing with Brown for backup minutes. Sterling looks like he can play better than his stats show, but can't count Green out IF he puts the work. It's NOT a given Green's value is less next season, IMHO, his value will only go up, Green has some talent, he is just too passive. Hopefully Kidd can work with him to make him better. 

Terry's minutes depends if the Mavs don't add Dragic or any other PG. He'd get his minutes if the Mavs start the season without one. He won't be ready, but the Mavs have no choice but throw him at the deep end. Would be a bit unfair for Tyrell, but his Mavs stint depends on the early days of the season when Mavs are without a Dragic or any other playmaker.

I'm sure if there's a trade out there for Burke, he would have been traded. But he's on a cheap deal, shouldn't be too hard for Cuban to just pay and cut him, but why do that if there are no more significant additions? If the Mavs can reclaim someone like DSJ or Frankie N on the cheap (and they are),  I rather have any of these two. At least, there's a better chance of a bounce back season for DSJ and Frank.

I'm going to slot Dragic in the facilitator role, so that means, he should eat up most of Green, Sterling, Burke and Terry's minutes. Will probably take some minutes off Luka and THJ too. One of the centers would be going out and that would most likely be WCS, maybe even Burke or Tyrell will be on the way out.

[ItsGoTime]

But here I am operating as if Carlisle is still making the rotations. Who knows what Kidd will do!

Good post. I think this is where the real question lies. I just said in another thread that THJ’s salary pretty much dictates that he starts, and I’m sure it is his spot to lose going into the season. Probably good way to look at it is that 2 out of the 3 of THJ, DFS and Bullock will get that start depending on how they look with Kidd’s scheme during training camp and preseason. Depending on how they catch on through the year, the season starters could change too!

[sterlingmallory]

Agreed we won't really know what Kidd will do at this point just yet. But here is my best guess on a few things: 

1) I think THJ is absolutely a full time starter from here on out. Signing him to this new deal is a significant investment and I think that signals that he will be a full time starter. We started Wes Matthews every game after we gave him that big contract and I am quite sure we'll do the same with Hardaway.

2) Considering we signed two 3&D wings as our new acquisitions this year, I think this signals we're going to try to give Luka maximum spacing possible and go 5 out whenever we can, surrounding him and KP with similarly sized wings to provide defense and shooting as much as possible. 

Here is my guess on the lineup:

Porzingis/Cauley-Stein/Powell/Boban/Moses
Finney-Smith/Kleber
Bullock/Green
Hardaway Jr/S. Brown/Burke
Doncic/Brunson/Terry

All that said, I could see them starting someone like Powell instead of DFS or Bullock to try to compensate for the roster imbalance. We have too many centers right now. We need a trade.

[KillerLeft]

Agreed we won't really know what Kidd will do at this point just yet. But here is my best guess on a few things: 

1) I think THJ is absolutely a full time starter from here on out. Signing him to this new deal is a significant investment and I think that signals that he will be a full time starter. We started Wes Matthews every game after we gave him that big contract and I am quite sure we'll do the same with Hardaway.

2) Considering we signed two 3&D wings as our new acquisitions this year, I think this signals we're going to try to give Luka maximum spacing possible and go 5 out whenever we can, surrounding him and KP with similarly sized wings to provide defense and shooting as much as possible. 

Here is my guess on the lineup:

Porzingis/Cauley-Stein/Powell/Boban/Moses
Finney-Smith/Kleber
Bullock/Green
Hardaway Jr/S. Brown/Burke
Doncic/Brunson/Terry

All that said, I could see them starting someone like Powell instead of DFS or Bullock to try to compensate for the roster imbalance. We have too many centers right now. We need a trade.

I think this is astute.

[ItsGoTime]

All that said, I could see them starting someone like Powell instead of DFS or Bullock to try to compensate for the roster imbalance. We have too many centers right now. We need a trade.

If DFS and Bullock trend up with their shooting and offensive performance I could absolutely see them squeezing THJ out of the starting spot. I’m sure Kidd doesn’t care about salaries, and THJ has accepted the bench role for a good while last year. On the other hand, if THJ keeps his offense and improves his defense, he could turn out to be a good starter!

[Kammrath]

I’m sure Kidd doesn’t care about salaries

RC sure did, generally speaking.

[KillerLeft]

If DFS and Bullock trend up with their shooting and offensive performance I could absolutely see them squeezing THJ out of the starting spot. I’m sure Kidd doesn’t care about salaries, and THJ has accepted the bench role for a good while last year.

This is possible, of course, and it's true that THJ has gone to the bench before like a professional, but...I think he made it as clear as he thought he could get away with without losing that "professional" cred that he much prefers to start. Terry never said that. Van Exel never said that. Stackhouse never said that. While THJ clearly always played hard and didn't cause problems (I really think he was the happiest to be out of NY and here in Dallas when that trade went down) he has made a few public statements about how he sees himself as a starter. 

Meanwhile, he was just a free agent and appears to have chosen to return at a slight discount, with more than one other team looking to sign him. I think it's almost a certainty that his future role here was discussed as part of these negotiations. Though you're right - things can change. 

But, the thing that I don't know gets enough grey matter devotion around here is that building a roster is a collaborative process. The coach probably has the most say in who plays when, but he's hired to play the team assembled, and the team is assembled with a strategy in mind. Do we think Kidd has the power to cut Luka's minutes by 10 per game if he thinks it's best? Does he have the power to bench KP consistently for the last 5 minutes of games? Could he roll into the front office the week before the season and say "you know, I've been thinking, and I really believe starting Boban every night is the way to go"? I think that stuff is all case by case and nuanced, but I'd say THJ is about 3rd on the pecking order around here and his salary reflects that. It seems pretty clear that the organization thought he was the most important thing they had to get done, whether we agree or not. He's the highest paid player they hired in free agency, the first they announced, etc. I really think he's a starter. 

Speaking of Terry, Stackhouse, Van Exel, etc...we've become used to having that kind of guy around here in that 6th man role over the years (although in JET's case he was really a starter who just happened to come off the bench), and I get the desire to view THJ in that same light, but both times they've tried that, the team (and the player) were worse for it. That's not to say that they'll never try it again, but I don't view any of the players currently on the roster as threats to his job or reason to give it a try. The closest thing to that, imo, is probably Brunson because of his handling. If I'm THJ I'm more worried about him than Bullock. 

DFS might need to be a little worried about Bullock, imo, but I sure hope not because he's an American treasure and has never done anything wrong in his life.

[KillerLeft]

RC sure did, generally speaking.

Yeah, case by case, with the variables being how many skins the coach has on the wall (Kidd has none, but has more built in cred here in Dallas than most failed coaches on their third trip around the block for sure), the player(s) in question, etc. 

But, I think it's safe to say every NBA GM has opinions about how the team they've assembled should be played strategically, and that every NBA coach is aware of that plan as well as how the salary structure of their team is determined.

[Kammrath]

But, I think it's safe to say every NBA GM has opinions about how the team they've assembled should be played strategically, and that every NBA coach is aware of that plan as well as how the salary structure of their team is determined.

No argument. 

I am just suggesting that salary hierarchy MATTERS in the NBA probably more than people realize.

[KillerLeft]

No argument. 

I am just suggesting that salary hierarchy MATTERS in the NBA probably more than people realize.

Oh, for sure. I didn't think you were saying otherwise. I was piggybacking on your astuteness!

[sterlingmallory]

RC sure did, generally speaking.

I think it's just one of those unspoken hierarchy things in the NBA. 4/74 is a big commitment and is too much money to give to a guy you're planning to bring off the bench most of the time. Anything could happen in the future with trades and whatnot, but I would bet money he will be a starter full time for the foreseeable future. He really came alive last year after we moved him back into the starting lineup just before the playoffs and I'm betting we'll want to keep up that momentum. 

It was different the last couple years because we didn't actually give him his previous contract, we traded for him, so it was a a little more acceptable to ask him to come off the bench. But even then, when anyone asked Carlisle about about it, he went out of his way to repeatedly state that Tim is a starting level NBA player, pointing out how much THJ was sacrificing for the team by coming off the bench. Now that we've given him the money, I just think we'll in turn make him a permanent starter.

[KillerLeft]

I think it's just one of those unspoken hierarchy things in the NBA. 4/74 is a big commitment and is too much money to give to a guy you're planning to bring off the bench most of the time. Anything could happen in the future with trades and whatnot, but I would bet money he will be a starter full time for the foreseeable future. He really came alive last year after we moved him back into the starting lineup just before the playoffs and I'm betting we'll want to keep up that momentum. 

It was different the last couple years because we didn't actually give him his previous contract, we traded for him, so it was a a little more acceptable to ask him to come off the bench. But even then, when anyone asked Carlisle about about it, he went out of his way to repeatedly state that Tim is a starting level NBA player, pointing out how much THJ was sacrificing for the team by coming off the bench. Now that we've given him the money, I just think we'll in turn make him a permanent starter.

100% agree. 

But, to @"ItsGoTime"'s point, this can change over time. Year 3 or year 4, if a difference maker is acquired? I can see it.

[KillerLeft]

I think a lot of fans have this vision that training camp starts and the coach "sees what he's got to work with" and then forms a plan. 

Here's the way to think about it that I believe is more accurate:

There are many roles on a pro basketball team, and I'm not talking about roster spots. Each team's strategy informs their definition of those roles, and how they prioritize them. They form a financial plan accordingly, and when they go into free agency, extend their players, make trades, whatever, they pay people based on those "jobs." 

9/10 times when fans think a player is overpaid, it's because they don't view that player's potential role the same way their team does (right or wrong). Example: I'd love Markannen here because you can never have too many bigs who can shoot, but I view him as a 3rd or 4th big in the rotation on a good team, so I see some of the contract suggestions around here for him as nut bar factor 7. Now, I'm not arriving at that opinion because I don't think he can play, it's just that I wouldn't pay anyone that kind of money to work the job I think he'd have here. I can only assume those in favor think those contract ideas are fair because they believe he'd be a starter. They might be right! 

That is why Dwight Powell got paid what he did - because they viewed him as a starter here at the time and they wanted him to feel like he was getting a promotion. They offered him a new job. And, it worked! That decision moved the team forward until the injury. If he was still starting as Luka's #1 option in the amazing pick and roll based offense they had that season, I believe there would be less complaining about the money around here (thought there will always be some about every player). 

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I will reserve my comments until I see Green and Terry play in the summer league next week.

[soog]

Agreed we won't really know what Kidd will do at this point just yet. But here is my best guess on a few things: 

1) I think THJ is absolutely a full time starter from here on out. Signing him to this new deal is a significant investment and I think that signals that he will be a full time starter. We started Wes Matthews every game after we gave him that big contract and I am quite sure we'll do the same with Hardaway.

2) Considering we signed two 3&D wings as our new acquisitions this year, I think this signals we're going to try to give Luka maximum spacing possible and go 5 out whenever we can, surrounding him and KP with similarly sized wings to provide defense and shooting as much as possible. 

Here is my guess on the lineup:

Porzingis/Cauley-Stein/Powell/Boban/Moses
Finney-Smith/Kleber
Bullock/Green
Hardaway Jr/S. Brown/Burke
Doncic/Brunson/Terry

All that said, I could see them starting someone like Powell instead of DFS or Bullock to try to compensate for the roster imbalance. We have too many centers right now. We need a trade.

This has been my thinking.  I think there are 2 more reasons to expect this:

1) Kidd’s statement about wanting to run more. That starting 5 is a very mobile unit.

2) That starting 5 would be very flexible on D.  I haven’t verified this but apparently Bullock marked Young a lot in that series this year.  Yes Young still had a great series, but it would be nice to have another guy like that to give Luka a break on the defensive end.

[KillerLeft]

1) Kidd’s statement about wanting to run more. That starting 5 is a very mobile unit.

When did he say this???? I was wondering, and we actually talked about it around here after the hire, but then @"dirkfansince1998" pointed out that his teams Milwaukee and Brooklyn both played at a slow pace. Plus, Luka seems to prefer a slower pace, honestly. 

I'd love a little more running though.

[sterlingmallory]

I think a lot of fans have this vision that training camp starts and the coach "sees what he's got to work with" and then forms a plan. 

Here's the way to think about it that I believe is more accurate:

There are many roles on a pro basketball team, and I'm not talking about roster spots. Each team's strategy informs their definition of those roles, and how they prioritize them. They form a financial plan accordingly, and when they go into free agency, extend their players, make trades, whatever, they pay people based on those "jobs." 

That is why Dwight Powell got paid what he did - because they viewed him as starter at the time and they wanted him to feel like he was getting a promotion.

Definitely. Fans are also disconnected from the off the court aspect of NBA team culture, things like player egos and status/hierarchy within the team. It's easy to look at it like it's NBA 2K and think coaches can always make the most cold, calculating decisions possible when it comes to lineup decisions. Committing 74 million dollars to me means you 100% intend to start that player barring some completely unforeseen scenario like a trade or something.

[Kammrath]

When did he say this????

He definitely said it. Can't remember where/when.