Mavs rotation

[StepBackJay]

There is probably a mystery player that will be added at some point which will change the rotations but the main 8-10 guys I see would be something like:

Luka/Brunson
THJ/S. Brown
Bullock/DFS
Powell/WCS
KP/Maxi

Green seem like the likliest candidate to steal minutes. The other young guys probably will get garbage time. Burke/Boban will get spot minutes.

Remember Sterling Brown and Bullock are the only guys attached to this GM/new MBT so they should definitely both get a chance to succeed.

Maxi used to back up KP and I think there's a good chance that he resumes that role vs starting next to KP. 

The big question is who is starting next to KP in the frontcourt. Powell has had success there and I think would be a good choice to start the season. DFS is a little bit of a tweener to start in the frontcourt altho it does give him an advantage on offense.

The other thing is I think if you bring DFS off the bench it will help us have solid forward minutes throughout the game. The thing that bothered me last year was that the team had to over-rely on DFS as their only really small forward which I think is why he had to log so many minutes.

Looking at salaries this rotation also makes sense. I don't think you pay THJ 72 million to come off the bench. Anyways at least this rotation is pretty solid even if it lacks a new playmaker, it at least bolsters the shooting. The elephant in the room is that DFS is a great role player (Maxi too when healthy) but Mavs cannot over-rely on those guys.

[mavsluvr]

What I was trying to say is there is the possibility of overlap depending on improvement, declining and possible fit in whatever system Kidd brings to this group. Kidd talked the same defense game that RC did for years, if Kidd is more serious about that and THJ starts out the season making big mistakes on defense, does Kidd correct by starting guys who have the better defensive acumen. 


I think of it as 2 of the 3 in DFS, THJ and RB with the odd man out playing a big role off the bench. Could be all 3 starting and Kleber shows the better defensive ability so he (edit: THJ) loses the start to him. I mainly think of it as “we’ll see when we see”. I agree that the starting spot is THJ’s to lose to start the season. Will he keep it is the question.

Certainly, there is likely to be some interchange as far as who gets what minutes on any given night. 

Please do not take the following remarks as "aimed" at you, IGT. They're not addressed specifically to anybody in particular.

I just get a puzzling sense that some fans view (for example) all those guys as pretty much the same player, with THJ somewhat worse on defense. When they're so not. And even more puzzling, the idea that he is inherently a eighth to tenth man type who is only on the roster because the incompetent front office just can't find anybody else. And when they do, he'll certainly drop back to his rightful position at the end of the pine. 

I'm really not especially trying to be an apologist for THJ, I just don't get it. 

The only way I see THJ starting from the bench (circumstances being as they are) is if he is in a true sixth man role. Not just the first person off the bench. A guy who plays starter minutes regularly, and is on the floor at the end of the game. A JET role, essentially. 

It just seems very clear that he is going to play heavy minutes regularly, and I'm not seeing the point of view that there is even a debate about that. The Mavs aren't paying him $74M and calling him part of their core to play him 15 minutes per night. We may like it, or we may not, but he's going to be the third option unless they get someone better, because no one further down the chain can do what he does, and it's not even close. They're counting on him for offensive production, and if he makes a few defensive mistakes, they're going to tolerate it. They're just not going to take him out for a defensive error and put Josh Green or the like in his place for the rest of the game. And they shouldn't. 

They may tinker with lineups on any given night, and there may be times he just doesn't have it, but I'm not sure why there is a persistent question about whether he is going to generally start or play bench minutes, as if that were really some kind of live issue. The guy has his faults, but he's a starting-quality player. 

Re-reading the above, maybe I should just calm down and let people discuss what they want. I'm just trying to make sense of it, and possibly it just doesn't, or maybe I am just wrong and somehow not seeing the light. I hope I have not said anything that offended you, IGT. 

Carry on, bro.

[KillerLeft]

I just get a puzzling sense that some fans view (for example) all those guys as pretty much the same player, with THJ somewhat worse on defense.

This is the main point for me. 

Hardaway is skilled enough on offense to be used as a weapon. They run actions with the intent of creating shots for him, and it's his job to get them off. The opposing team knows this and plans ways of combatting it, so possessions sometimes end with him taking some of what fans who don't care for him consider bad shots, for sure, but that doesn't mean he's not required by the team to get those shots off. (I'm speaking about things in general here, not suggesting that THJ never takes a shot he shouldn't. Just about all players do that from time to time)

I think shooting percentage is absolutely a fair thing to factor into our opinions about how successful he/the team are with this strategy, but I don't think it's fair at all to compare his 3pt% with that of DFS (whom I love) and suggest that if DFS's is a little higher that he should be given that role. He's not remotely qualified for it, imo. He takes wide open shots that occur when the defense is forced to commit extra defenders to take away angles/looks from guys like Hardaway. It's an important role, but distinctly different, imo. 

I also don't think it's wise to consider taking away that role altogether in order to add an additional DFS-type role in its place. I think what the Mavs ask Hardaway to do on offense is extremely necessary, and it's just a matter of whether or not the player who plays that role is good enough to succeed. 

To be fair, I'm not abundantly familiar with Bullock yet, though what I do know about him so far has me thinking he's in line for a DFS type of role, not a Hardaway type of role. Who knows, though - maybe he's better at moving without the ball and has a quicker release than DFS. That would be an improvement for the team, regardless of how the players are used.

[DallasBasketball]

Let’s take a look from a minutes standpoint.

2-4 is 144 minutes total.

THJ +/- 30 min
Bullock +/- 30 min
DFS +/- 30 min

~ 54 minutes left to split b/n Kleber/Powell/Green/Brown/Brunson/Terry/Burke

Unless something changes drastically with Kleber/Powell, the two should combine for 30-40min per game.

———

KP can be penciled in 30min at C, leaving 18min for Kleber/Powell/Wcs/Brown/Boban

I’ll take the low of 30min total for Kleber/Powell, putting 10 of those minutes at C, so they get ~20min at PF. 

———

Best case scenario for Green/Brown/Brunson/Terry/Burke is an available 34min. Brunson could be at the front of the line for ~10 of those minutes. I have no idea what to expect from Brown.

So now we are down to ~ 24min at best for Green/Brown/Terry, and that’s assuming Powell/Kleber ONLY play a combined 20min at PF AND DFS/Bullock/THJ only average out to 30min each. Not to mention the scenario of WCS AND KP on the floor together.

—————

Lots of unknowns but Luka and KP are knowns. Bullock/DFS/THJ are mostly known.  Kleber/Powell are relatively known. Anything else is barely known. 

So if Green somehow made it to the rotation at ~15min that would be huge for him.



———
^and if I’m wrong calling Bullock a known, God help us all.

[mavsluvr]

This is the main point for me. 

Hardaway is skilled enough on offense to be used as a weapon. They run actions with the intent of creating shots for him, and it's his job to get them off. The opposing team knows this and plans ways of combatting it, so possessions sometimes end with him taking some of what fans who don't care for him consider bad shots, for sure, but that doesn't mean he's not required by the team to get those shots off. (I'm speaking about things in general here, not suggesting that THJ never takes a shot he shouldn't. Just about all players do that from time to time)

I think shooting percentage is absolutely a fair thing to factor into our opinions about how successful he/the team are with this strategy, but I don't think it's fair at all to compare his 3pt% with that of DFS (whom I love) and suggest that if DFS's is a little higher that he should be given that role. He's not remotely qualified for it, imo. He takes wide open shots that occur when the defense is forced to commit extra defenders to take away angles/looks from guys like Hardaway. It's an important role, but distinctly different, imo. 

To be fair, I'm not abundantly familiar with Bullock yet, though what I do know about him so far has me thinking he's in line for a DFS type of role, not a Hardaway type of role. Who knows, though - maybe he's better at moving without the ball and has a quicker release than DFS. That would be an improvement for the team, regardless of how the players are used.

Yes! That's exactly it! Thank you!

Yes, we haven't really seen Bullock yet. He was advertised as a 3&D guy, and paid like one, so that's what I am basing my assumptions on. If it turns out that he also has elite scoring skills, that will indeed be serendipitous!

[mavsluvr]

Best case scenario for Green/Brown/Brunson/Terry/Burke is an available 34min. Brunson could be at the front of the line for ~10 of those minutes.

Thanks for sorting all that out. As a nit, I will be surprised if Brunson doesn't get around 20 mpg, since he is really the only other guy who can run the offense outside of Luka. 


But that just serves your larger point, which is that a fair number of these guys are going to be situational players. Perhaps Green among them.

[DallasBasketball]

Thanks for sorting all that out. As a nit, I will be surprised if Brunson doesn't get around 20 mpg, since he is really the only other guy who can run the offense outside of Luka. 


But that just serves your larger point, which is that a fair number of these guys are going to be situational players. Perhaps Green among them.

I left out a mention of the remainder minutes for Brunson running the point behind Luka, so when you take ~10min at SG and ~10min+ at PG, you get to your 20mpg comfortably.

[mavsluvr]

I left out the remainder minutes for Brunson running the point behind Luka, so when you take ~10min at SG and ~10min+ at PG, you get to your 20mpg comfortably.

good point, thanks

[ItsGoTime]

That's a good point, and I'm sure they want Green to be something here. How could they not? 

I'm just seeing a ton of wings (hell yeah!) and I'm not extremely confident that he's better than any of them right now. My best guess is that he finds himself in early competition with Sterling Brown and Burke for 4th guard minutes. Those are different kinds of players, obviously, but I can make make a fairly believable argument for any of the three of them taking that minor role (not many minutes, honestly) and I just don't know how clear it can be right now how that will shake out. 

If it's Green who becomes the most regular occupant of that role, was Sterling Brown a good use of the BAE? 

I guess it's also possible that they REALLY want to play 5-out, like a lot, and Kleber will share minutes at the 4 with DFS (like more than DFS has played there in the past). That would probably open up a bigger backup role for Green to take some minutes behind Bullock and DFS (though still not a ton, right?). 

Or, maybe it's even more drastic and they're going to more consistently play two guards with Luka. That would mean Sterling Brown and Green are probably both very needed as regulars. 

Idk...it's fascinating. As much as I hated to see Carlisle go, I admit that the unknown aspect of all of this is intriguing.

Ya man, until as soon as the last couple preseason games, I think it is almost impossible to solidly know what this team will look like. Just having Kidd here makes everything we know an unknown!


I mean, could turn out that he coaches close to the same system as RC, but to be confident in KP as a C in Kidd’s system should not be a thing. If anything, the lack of big wings (we currently only have Maxi…and KP if that’s what Kidd figures him to be) would say that is Kidd’s thinking.

[ItsGoTime]

Certainly, there is likely to be some interchange as far as who gets what minutes on any given night. 

Please do not take the following remarks as "aimed" at you, IGT. They're not addressed specifically to anybody in particular.

I just get a puzzling sense that some fans view (for example) all those guys as pretty much the same player, with THJ somewhat worse on defense. When they're so not. And even more puzzling, the idea that he is inherently a eighth to tenth man type who is only on the roster because the incompetent front office just can't find anybody else. And when they do, he'll certainly drop back to his rightful position at the end of the pine. 

I'm really not especially trying to be an apologist for THJ, I just don't get it. 

The only way I see THJ starting from the bench (circumstances being as they are) is if he is in a true sixth man role. Not just the first person off the bench. A guy who plays starter minutes regularly, and is on the floor at the end of the game. A JET role, essentially. 

It just seems very clear that he is going to play heavy minutes regularly, and I'm not seeing the point of view that there is even a debate about that. The Mavs aren't paying him $74M and calling him part of their core to play him 15 minutes per night. We may like it, or we may not, but he's going to be the third option unless they get someone better, because no one further down the chain can do what he does, and it's not even close. They're counting on him for offensive production, and if he makes a few defensive mistakes, they're going to tolerate it. They're just not going to take him out for a defensive error and put Josh Green or the like in his place for the rest of the game. And they shouldn't. 

They may tinker with lineups on any given night, and there may be times he just doesn't have it, but I'm not sure why there is a persistent question about whether he is going to generally start or play bench minutes, as if that were really some kind of live issue. The guy has his faults, but he's a starting-quality player. 

Re-reading the above, maybe I should just calm down and let people discuss what they want. I'm just trying to make sense of it, and possibly it just doesn't, or maybe I am just wrong and somehow not seeing the light. I hope I have not said anything that offended you, IGT. 

Carry on, bro.

Dude! I don’t think you could ever offend me, also please know that deep in my mind, if we ever fully disagree with anything, I know, again deep down, you are probably more right than me!!!


I think I might have a bit of a better answer, but I think it’s better through quoting KL’s post. 

You guys tag team me so much…bastards!!! 

[ItsGoTime]

This is the main point for me. 

Hardaway is skilled enough on offense to be used as a weapon. They run actions with the intent of creating shots for him, and it's his job to get them off. The opposing team knows this and plans ways of combatting it, so possessions sometimes end with him taking some of what fans who don't care for him consider bad shots, for sure, but that doesn't mean he's not required by the team to get those shots off. (I'm speaking about things in general here, not suggesting that THJ never takes a shot he shouldn't. Just about all players do that from time to time)

Absolutely THJ is a weapon on offense! I would love him in a JET role! Not starting but mostly ending the game with roughly the same minutes as the starters. To me, with them signing defenders in Bullock and Brown, this is putting your money where your mouth is. Kidd said they will play defense. We’ve heard that from RC every single year and yet we’ve stayed mostly bottom 10 of teams in defense every year.

I think shooting percentage is absolutely a fair thing to factor into our opinions about how successful he/the team are with this strategy, but I don't think it's fair at all to compare his 3pt% with that of DFS (whom I love) and suggest that if DFS's is a little higher that he should be given that role. He's not remotely qualified for it, imo. He takes wide open shots that occur when the defense is forced to commit extra defenders to take away angles/looks from guys like Hardaway. It's an important role, but distinctly different, imo. 

I think it’s much more than shooting %. I think it’s the combination of shooting % and attempts pg. That combo is what makes THJ who he is on offense. It’s not the only thing he brings (I say this so you don’t have to), but it’s what makes the rest of his game so much more deadly.

Here’s the rub for me and what I’ve been trying to say. Instead of having 1 guy do all of that, what if 2 guys water that down and make up for the attempts he doesn’t get by increasing their attempts? What if those two guys can pick up that “slack” and are better on the defensive end than THJ? I think at that point a decision should be made by the coach and with what we know he’s said the defenders should get the nod in that situation. Either that or like I said, the 3 of them need to be good enough to fill the small, med and large wing spots. DFS hasn’t looked as good there, but maybe he would with this new system? Otherwise, the coach isn’t putting the team in the best position to succeed, right?

I also don't think it's wise to consider taking away that role altogether in order to add an additional DFS-type role in its place. I think what the Mavs ask Hardaway to do on offense is extremely necessary, and it's just a matter of whether or not the player who plays that role is good enough to succeed. 

To be fair, I'm not abundantly familiar with Bullock yet, though what I do know about him so far has me thinking he's in line for a DFS type of role, not a Hardaway type of role. Who knows, though - maybe he's better at moving without the ball and has a quicker release than DFS. That would be an improvement for the team, regardless of how the players are used.

I’ve tried to be mostly fair with THJ. I like him less than some and more than others. He has more to his offense than DFS can get to in 1 year and like you I don’t know much about Bullock to know if he can make up for some of the other things THJ brings to the offense. My point of contention is in the cost/benefit to the defense that our new coach is supposedly focused on? 

[soog]

I’m one who wants to see THJ come off the bench.  I’m not going to call it a JET role though, I’m going to call it a an OKC-Harden role.  No he’s not harden but I think (don’t hate me for saying this) that much more will be required of him to carry this team at times than was required of JET.  When KD and Westbrook went to the bench and harden came on the floor for OKC, that became his team. If THJ comes off of the bench he will need to take over games in a similar manner.

I think Bullock and DFS are very similar players as has been said - players who need someone else to open things up for them, someone like Luka.  I also think THJ can be that other creator when Luka goes to the bench, someone who can put up points.  I think starting Bullock and DFS with Luka is the best way to get the highest production from them while trying to get the opposing team’s stars off to a bad start.  I also think asking Timmy to come off of the bench and carry the team when Luka sits puts more responsibility on his shoulders and asks him to do more to earn that new contract.

I think this gets the most out of everyone’s skill sets after you consider timing of rotations and needs in the second unit.  I would also envision THJ being one of the team leaders in minutes.  I would also envision that with this your lineup to finish games looks something like:

Luka/THJ/Bullock/DFS/KP

[Branduil]

240 minutes to spend:

Luka 34 mpg

KP 28 mpg
THJ 28 mpg
Brunson 24 mpg
DFS 24 mpg
Bullock 24 mpg
Maxi 20 mpg
Powell 18 mpg

I view that as the core of the team. That adds up to 200 minutes. That leaves 40 minutes for the situational guys. WCS, both Browns, Boban, the sophomores... all those guys will be competing for those roughly 40 minutes.

[StepBackJay]

240 minutes to spend:

Luka 34 mpg

KP 28 mpg
THJ 28 mpg
Brunson 24 mpg
DFS 24 mpg
Bullock 24 mpg
Maxi 20 mpg
Powell 18 mpg

I view that as the core of the team. That adds up to 200 minutes. That leaves 40 minutes for the situational guys. WCS, both Browns, Boban, the sophomores... all those guys will be competing for those roughly 40 minutes.

I think THJ will go back up to 30 with J Rich out of the way. I don't see why they would drop KP under 30, I think he would be unhappy if he's not logging at least close to his career average. Bullock should also be 30 mpg. I think DFS could potentially drop a little bit but I still think he will be heavily used since he has position flex at SF/PF. Powell and Maxi being 20's also makes sense. Brunson was 25 last year which I think is a good number for him.

These are my numbers:

Luka 34 mpg
KP 30 mpg
THJ 30 mpg
Brunson 25 mpg
DFS 28 mpg
Bullock 30 mpg
Maxi 20 mpg
Powell 18 mpg

I think that is more like 215, with 25 to spare that either goes to these 8 or sprinkled in to the others. This is a pretty good 8 all things considered. 

Powell last year had a really rough start coming back from injury (as expected). He really shouldn't have been playing and to the extent he played Rick did not set him up for success playing next to DFS in the front court. Mavs went with Maxi/KP as the frontcourt for many months but eventually went back DP + KP before the season ended and then we had a couple trash games then the playoffs.

I have no idea what Kidd will go but it was clear that DP had a good impact late in the season setting screens, rolling to the basket, going after offensive rebounds, looking like his old self. I like DP (or any good roller) out there with Luka because it makes Luka's life much easier on offense. Maxi was injured and perhaps over-extended. I like Maxi back to the bench as KP's backup and a closer which to make makes more sense. 

Again I don't know how Kidd wants to run his lineups but I would be surprised if it strays too far from the "Luka" offense which is a lot of PnR and finding shooters. Maybe Kidd can get more off-ball movement, I am not sure. One of the bigger things I think he will do is make Luka push the ball more, which was a Jason Kidd staple. If Luka did this he would be basically unstoppable. Harden has done this his whole career which just makes it really hard on the defense bc they never get set and Luka's game is very similar to Harden.

The challenge for Luka of course is that he gets exhausted out there. I do wonder if Mavs can tinker with his rotations more to try to give him breaks without tanking the offense. A Dragic signing would help to that end. Maybe Kidd can figure out how to run the offense through KP more effectively. Who knows.

[Mak]

There’s a ton of different directions Kidd could go with the starting lineup / rotations, all of which could result in reasonable success as long as Luka is the centerpiece. 


I kinda like the idea of keeping it simple. Lock in Luka + KP as the offensive cornerstones, put the 3 most versatile defenders on the roster next to them, and keep the rest for a strong bench to be drawn from as needed during any given game. 


Which probably means a starting 5 of Luka, KP, Reggie, DFS, and whoever looks best in training camp I suppose — perhaps Maxi or Sterling.

[Branduil]

There’s a ton of different directions Kidd could go with the starting lineup / rotations, all of which could result in reasonable success as long as Luka is the centerpiece. 


I kinda like the idea of keeping it simple. Lock in Luka + KP as the offensive cornerstones, put the 3 most versatile defenders on the roster next to them, and keep the rest for a strong bench to be drawn from as needed during any given game. 


Which probably means a starting 5 of Luka, KP, Reggie, DFS, and whoever looks best in training camp I suppose — perhaps Maxi or Sterling.

They definitely did not re-sign THJ to come off the bench. So it's likely Luka, KP, and THJ plus two others.


I think the only way THJ goes to the bench is if our bench ends up having too much trouble scoring... but it's not likely it will be a complete bench platoon anyway, so I'm not sure how much that matters.

[soog]

They definitely did not re-sign THJ to come off the bench.

Can you explain how you are so sure of this?

[Branduil]

Can you explain how you are so sure of this?

THJ: "Hey so of course I want to come back, but the Pelicans are offering me more money. I've got that starters spot locked down here, right?"

[Mak]

Tbh it probably doesn’t matter too much who starts during the long grind of the regular season, as far as winning regular season games goes. Luka with another year of experience under his belt will likely be OP enough to make most iteration of any lineup he’s in look reasonably successfully. This is a GOAT-tier player starting the journey into his prime years. 



It will be nice if the coach doesn’t just lean on Luka tho and has a long term plan for his rest while also preparing the team overall for the playoffs. 


I’m not against THJ starting, especially since there isn’t really a clear-cut established player on the roster for his spot anyway. 


It just seems like bringing him off the bench would go along with a ton of stuff the Mavs have stated as goals. 1) getting KP more involved 2) playing more defense, and 3) extending Luka’s impact and stamina throughout the game / season by adding some serious firepower to the bench

[DallasBasketball]

THJ: "Hey so of course I want to come back, but the Pelicans are offering me more money. I've got that starters spot locked down here, right?"

“Hey we know we told you that you would be the starter, but the bench really needs your help right now. Can you take one for team and help out as 6th man again?”