ARTICLES & PODS: ROSTER OVERHAUL NEEDED

[omahen]

I am scared poopless at the idea of Cuban feeding the press the idea that Bob was responsible for the Luka pick. If that's true, there's only one reason to do it: they're keeping Bob. 

I just don't get this Bob scare. Bob is not an illness. He is a symptom.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/MFollowill/status/14...9118407681

[F Gump]

So this was the impression I got (after synthesizing what I heard):

Voulgaris was NOT "responsible" for the pick....but he WAS in Cuban's ear about Luka, praising him effusively as the next big thing and that Cuban would regret passing on Luka if he did. Donnie also liked Luka and wanted him. Voulgaris being on the same page as Donnie about Luka helped Cuban pull the trigger and give up the extra 1st round pick (because all his advisors were saying the same thing). 

So the point wasn't that Donnie didn't like Luka, but that Voulgaris liking Luka so much helped 1) Cuban pull the trigger and 2) built Cuban's trust in Voulgaris as knowing what he was talking about (maybe even leading to his hire).

I will say about this "synthesis" the same thing I've said about the other possibilities as to how Bob has been operating - no one can think it happened like this, without also saying that Cuban has been the GM making the GM-type decisions for the Mavs.

If Donnie was the GM making the decisions, then Bob is taking his info to Donnie, who figures out how to value it along with what scouts are saying, and then pulls a trigger on what he thinks is best. But if Cuban is the GM, he gets input from Donnie, Bob, and others, decides what he likes, and it's his decision. And clearly we see it has been the latter path used by the Mavs.

Also this is NOT "typical owner behavior" around the NBA. It's very much the exception, and where we see owners operating this way, thinking they can be the basketball guy and outdo the pros, they tend to be pantsed and outclassed by the ones where the owners delegate and get out of the way.

[david75090]

I will say about this "synthesis" the same thing I've said about the other possibilities as to how Bob has been operating - no one can think it happened like this, without also saying that Cuban has been the GM making the GM-type decisions for the Mavs.

If Donnie was the GM making the decisions, then Bob is taking his info to Donnie, who figures out how to value it along with what scouts are saying, and then pulls a trigger on what he thinks is best. But if Cuban is the GM, he gets input from Donnie, Bob, and others, decides what he likes, and it's his decision. And clearly we see it has been the latter path used by the Mavs.

Also this is NOT "typical owner behavior" around the NBA. It's very much the exception, and where we see owners operating this way, thinking they can be the basketball guy and outdo the pros, they tend to be pantsed and outclassed by the ones where the owners delegate and get out of the way.

And Donnie takes the blame for following his boss's orders. Donnie looks like the incompetent.

[fifteenth]

And Donnie takes the blame for following his boss's orders. Donnie looks like the incompetent.

I'm sure there are plenty of things to blame Donnie for. But to be clear, Donnie should have prevented Bob from talking to Cuban? Or forbid Cuban from talking to Bob?

[F Gump]

And Donnie takes the blame for following his boss's orders. Donnie looks like the incompetent.

Perhaps, in a way. But ...

1 Donnie taking the bullets was always part of the landscape. That's more or less what he signed up for, I think. He was the face of the decision-making, even if Cuban was actually setting the direction and deciding the process.

So I don't think Donnie got a raw deal here in how it played out.

2 Nor do I think him being gone is necessarily a plus. They needed to change the decision maker, and the process, and the priorities, and the expertise. But I don't see how any of that has happened at all.

Changing Donnie for someone like Ujiri, and letting Ujiri run the show, was one way to fix it. Adding experts to assist Donnie in areas that needed massive improvement, and letting Donnie truly run the show, was another. But nothing like that happened. They have a bunch of trainees trying to figure it out, none of them the experts in these things, and the very same boss setting the direction and making the calls.
 
3 I do even wonder if Donnie is gone somewhat of his own volition. Which would mean, him getting fired wasn't unfair, it was just everyone moving on. I'm speculating he decided there was too much Bob (and Cuban) taking them in a subpar direction, Bob was trying to making himself look good at the expense of throwing others under the bus, and he didn't want to live in that world anymore.

4 I also don't think Donnie will offer some grand reveal to make himself look better, or throw Bob or Cuban under the bus. That's not who he is.

[KillerLeft]

Nekias is fast becoming my favorite analyst on the interwebs. 

https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/t...-porzingis

[duboh7]

KL wrote:  "Nekias is fast becoming my favorite analyst on the interwebs."

Thanks for the posting.  I thought it was an excellent, nuts & bolts explanation of KP's season vs. his 7 games vs. the Clips.  I am in the camp (perhaps differing with you) that he espoused in the last couple of paragraphs.  I hope Kidd is smart enough to utilize KP's talents (assuming KP stays and that additional talent is added, as described.)

[DanSchwartzgan]

Nekias is fast becoming my favorite analyst on the interwebs. 

https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/t...-porzingis

"What's clear, taking a 10,000-foot view of this thing, is that the Mavericks need a third guy. That third doesn't necessarily have to be better than Porzingis overall (though that'd be great for obvious reasons), but there is a pressure-the-rim, make-the-defense-bend gap that needs to be bridged." 


Thanks for this.  I think we all recognize this as does the team given their comments about prioritizing a shot creator.  We've tried two guys in this role who were theoretically defenders, passers and not particularly dynamic offensive threats.  It hasn't worked.  I think the spacing KP provides might make the DeRozan work in this capacity offensively.  Having two guys who can efficiently "get theirs" (DD has been .591 and .603 in TS% on high usage the last two seasons) and are good and willing passers would really help KP.  

Of course, DD isn't a good defender and putting him, Luka and KP on the floor at the same time isn't ideal.  

If that is a deal killer, then you get to choose from some older guys (Conley, Lowry), some restricted guys (Ball and maybe Graham) or some guys who are more backups than starters (Caruso, McConnell).  Conley was 30th in the league in DBPM and 64th in D Win Score if you like those metrics.  Utah was 10 points better defensively when he was in the game (which is why he's my favorite target).  Ball has a defensive reputation, but NO was worse defensively when he was in the game last season.  Lowry slipped quite a bit from some excellent career DWS and DBPM numbers.  Graham is essentially a carbon copy of Brunson by those metrics.   If you go to the Caruso/McConnell class you get some good defensive metrics, but you miss the self creation you are hoping for offensively.  

To me, Conley is the guy.  DeRozan is probably second for me and more attainable.  But go sell Conley that his chance for a Chris Paul moment is more realistic here with Luka than in Utah (a bad city) with Mitchell as the alpha.

[dirkfansince1998]

"What's clear, taking a 10,000-foot view of this thing, is that the Mavericks need a third guy. That third doesn't necessarily have to be better than Porzingis overall (though that'd be great for obvious reasons), but there is a pressure-the-rim, make-the-defense-bend gap that needs to be bridged." 


Thanks for this.  I think we all recognize this as does the team given their comments about prioritizing a shot creator.  We've tried two guys in this role who were theoretically defenders, passers and not particularly dynamic offensive threats.  It hasn't worked.  I think the spacing KP provides might make the DeRozan work in this capacity offensively.  Having two guys who can efficiently "get theirs" (DD has been .591 and .603 in TS% on high usage the last two seasons) and are good and willing passers would really help KP.  

Of course, DD isn't a good defender and putting him, Luka and KP on the floor at the same time isn't ideal.  

If that is a deal killer, then you get to choose from some older guys (Conley, Lowry), some restricted guys (Ball and maybe Graham) or some guys who are more backups than starters (Caruso, McConnell).  Conley was 30th in the league in DBPM and 64th in D Win Score if you like those metrics.  Utah was 10 points better defensively when he was in the game (which is why he's my favorite target).  Ball has a defensive reputation, but NO was worse defensively when he was in the game last season.  Lowry slipped quite a bit from some excellent career DWS and DBPM numbers.  Graham is essentially a carbon copy of Brunson by those metrics.   If you go to the Caruso/McConnell class you get some good defensive metrics, but you miss the self creation you are hoping for offensively.  

To me, Conley is the guy.  DeRozan is probably second for me and more attainable.  But go sell Conley that his chance for a Chris Paul moment is more realistic here with Luka than in Utah (a bad city) with Mitchell as the alpha.

Looking at Conley´s on/off metrics. Is this about his on defensive impact or about him playing most of his minutes next to 3x DPOY Gobert? Can easily see why Ball has mediocre on/off impact on defense. He plays next to Adams/Zion/Ingram.

[ThisIStheYear]

Nekias is fast becoming my favorite analyst on the interwebs. 

https://www.basketballnews.com/stories/t...-porzingis

It’s an article about his offense, which isn’t the issue.  For pretty much all his career, KP is not much better than the league average for 3 pt % and is often below average on TS%. This past year was actually about as good as it gets for him, so they must have been using him right on that end of the floor.  Regardless, on offense, he is what he is, just average to a whisker above average, no matter the volume or how cool it looks for a tall, lanky dude to shoot like the average guard. There’s no curve in the NBA.  Average is average.  But, he plays center, so defense is the name of the game anyway, and he couldn’t do that last year. KP is like a no glove, average hitting shortstop who makes a max salary.  That’s a terrible allocation of salary cap resources.  I’d like to see the article break down the defense.  After all, he used to be pretty good on that side of the floor, and until he is again, he’ll remain an albatross for Luka reaching his goals.

[KillerLeft]

It’s an article about his offense, which isn’t the issue.

Totally agree, and that's why I'm unswayed in my opinion that KP must go. 

But, it's a GREAT article about his offense.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Looking at Conley´s on/off metrics. Is this about his on defensive impact or about him playing most of his minutes next to 3x DPOY Gobert? Can easily see why Ball has mediocre on/off impact on defense. He plays next to Adams/Zion/Ingram.

Conley has always been positively impactful in on/off.  His career average is +6.2.  This season was double that.  His 108 D-Rating is very close to his 109 career average.  The bigger swing factor is typically more about who replaces you (or who you replace).  Playing with Gobert can help, especially to the extent your backup doesn't play with Gobert.  Dirk was always an on/off monster and no matter who you put with him, Dirk's backup was always going to look bad by this metric.

It is hard to prove this up with the data I have access to.  Perhaps Kamm can help here.  Conley had a 99.1 D-Rating when paired with Gobert.  He played very few minutes without Gobert, but the top lineups where this occured, the D Rating was actually better (small sample size alert).  Clarkson and Mitchell are sizable on/off negatives defensively.  Lineups with Gobert/Mitchell have a D rating of 103.7.  Clarkson/Gobert is 100.3.   You'd have to eliminate the overlap to really know, but that is tough because Utah typically has two of them on the court most of the time.

[KillerLeft]

Thanks for the posting.  I thought it was an excellent, nuts & bolts explanation of KP's season vs. his 7 games vs. the Clips.  I am in the camp (perhaps differing with you) that he espoused in the last couple of paragraphs.  I hope Kidd is smart enough to utilize KP's talents (assuming KP stays and that additional talent is added, as described.)

As @"ThisIStheYear" stated, the article doesn't address the defensive end at all, other than illustrating what opponents are doing to take Porzingis out of the game. I think that can be fixed by adding talent and through some hard work by KP to add a little more offensive versatility. I don't think he'll ever be a max player on offense, but he's already a useful one, and I believe he could be even better in time. 

But, the defense, though. I'm so skeptical that he'll ever not be the 10th best defender on the floor in an NBA game again. I keep seeing people suggest things like "KP's not a real center, so he should play with a real center" as if the team won't target him, simply because he has a different position written next to his name on the lineup card. To my thinking, his only realistic chance to contribute on the defensive end is at the 5, where his length has a chance to help in the paint, but in order to do that, he'll need to commit to the physicality required to rebound. And, in order to be on the floor at any position, he must learn how to play the pick-and-roll more aggressively. We've watched Brook Lopez make adjustments in these playoffs, so it's possible, I just don't know that KP's athletic problems and mindset are temporary. 

tl;dr: I'm not worried about his offense at all, even though it has been concerning at times. I posted the article because I thought it was a good explanation of why Luka and Carlisle might not have pandered to KP on that end as much as some people here might've wanted. I am extremely worried about his defense - so much so that if it were my decision, I'd move on from him and let someone else worry about it.

[Kammrath]

Conley has always been positively impactful in on/off.  His career average is +6.2.  This season was double that.  His 108 D-Rating is very close to his 109 career average.  The bigger swing factor is typically more about who replaces you (or who you replace).  Playing with Gobert can help, especially to the extent your backup doesn't play with Gobert.  Dirk was always an on/off monster and no matter who you put with him, Dirk's backup was always going to look bad by this metric.

It is hard to prove this up with the data I have access to.  Perhaps Kamm can help here.  Conley had a 99.1 D-Rating when paired with Gobert.  He played very few minutes without Gobert, but the top lineups where this occured, the D Rating was actually better (small sample size alert).  Clarkson and Mitchell are sizable on/off negatives defensively.  Lineups with Gobert/Mitchell have a D rating of 103.7.  Clarkson/Gobert is 100.3.   You'd have to eliminate the overlap to really know, but that is tough because Utah typically has two of them on the court most of the time.

I think Conley has been (along with CP3) one of the best small guard defensive players of the last 20 years. It seems to me from the data that Conley and Gobert were an INCREDIBLE defensive duo this past season, making each other better. 

My concern with Conley is age, he turns 34 real soon and he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Small guards tend to wear out at his age and minutes (in fact he has already exceeded expectations from my seat). 

I think the Mavs were right to chase him when he was a free agent last.....but now? I personally don't think it would be a wise investment.

[KillerLeft]

My concern with Conley is age, he turns 34 real soon and he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Small guards tend to wear out at his age and minutes (in fact he has already exceeded expectations from my seat). 

I think the Mavs were right to chase him when he was a free agent last.....but now? I personally don't think it would be a wise investment.

Yeah, I don't get the fascination with these types, I really don't. 

Maybe my paradigm on this is too limiting, and maybe we should just be happy with the Mavs adding talent like Conley or Lowry, but to me, their star is 22, and he is already almost beating the freaking Clippers in a 7-game series! Why not add younger prospects around Luka who can grow with him and the team? I mean, it's a totally different story if we're talking about Kawhi Leonard or Dame Lillard - I'd take that top tier of guy at any age. But these tier-2 types who are well into their 30's don't make a lot of sense, imo, because the Mavs' roster isn't ready to take full advantage of them.

[cow]

I think Conley has been (along with CP3) one of the best small guard defensive players of the last 20 years. It seems to me from the data that Conley and Gobert were an INCREDIBLE defensive duo this past season, making each other better. 

My concern with Conley is age, he turns 34 real soon and he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Small guards tend to wear out at his age and minutes (in fact he has already exceeded expectations from my seat). 

I think the Mavs were right to chase him when he was a free agent last.....but now? I personally don't think it would be a wise investment.

Not a knock on him but he's also played on some great defensive teams which wouldn't be the case here.  I'm with you on age as a concern but then again, look at CP3.

[KillerLeft]

I'm with you on age as a concern but then again, look at CP3.

Maybe I'm underrating Conley, but to me CP3 is like an all-time-great type of transcendent player who has always gotten the shaft with public opinion. I don't see those two as contemporaries at all. The age risks are the same, but the potential benefits are not, imo.

[cow]

Maybe I'm underrating Conley, but to me CP3 is like an all-time-great type of transcendent player who has always gotten the shaft with public opinion. I don't see those two as contemporaries at all. The age risks are the same, but the potential benefits are not, imo.

CP3 is a cheap shot artist and tends to wear out his welcome.  His reputation is well documented and deserved.  Further, I wasn't comparing CP3 to Conley as far as their place in the basketball pantheon, but rather showing how productive CP3 has been at 36.  It wouldn't surprise me if Conley can maintain his level of play for a few more years.

[KillerLeft]

CP3 is a cheap shot artist and tends to wear out his welcome.  His reputation is well documented and deserved.

Sorry, I wasn't talking about the reputation about his personality (I agree with you there). I was talking about the "he's not good enough to win" stuff. You might agree with that, too, but if so, that's where we start to disagree. I think his game and its impact have always been significantly underrated, possibly because of the personality stuff, in part. 

Further, I wasn't comparing CP3 to Conley as far as their place in the basketball pantheon, but rather showing how productive CP3 has been at 36.  It wouldn't surprise me if Conley can maintain his level of play for a few more years.

Tried to make it clear that I understood this to be your point (pretty obvious). 

MY point was: "who cares?" He will still only be Conley, not CP3, right? A very good player, and you can easily convince me he might be the best player the Mavs can get, but I don't think I'd see it as a victory since 1) he's unlikely to push the team over the top 2) his age makes it a temporary positive (even in the most optimistic of projections) and 3) he isn't likely to be some great trade asset with the combination of his age and the contract he's about to get. 

To my thinking, if Luka and Porzingis were fitting together like a glove and this team was super close to being a juggernaut, a Conley or Lowry might be perfect. I'm just saying that a younger guy (even if he's a little less established) makes more sense to me, personally.