07-01-2021, 04:12 AM
I have decided to try summarizing articles and pods in a separate thread, as the deep dives fit somewhat awkwardly into the mega-threads. We’ll see if this helps.
MMB: THE ROSTER ISN”T GOOD ENOUGH
Joe Hulbert wrote an article, and accompanied it with a podcast, about the team. He re-watched the playoff games in response to a lot of fingers pointed in Rick’s and Luka's direction and came away convinced that the roster needs a major overhaul. He thinks this roster’s ceiling is making the playoffs and MAYBE getting out of the first round if a lot of things go right, but that no coach can take them beyond that. He has some suggestions on how to fix things.
BIG-PICTURE CONCERNS
The Mavericks have a history of operating on a patchwork basis at a number of levels. They don’t have an overarching philosophy, whether we’re talking about player acquisition, or offensive/defensive systems. They have typically made moves to address particular holes that need filling at the time, and that has led to a cupboard of one-dimensional, ill-fitting pieces.
Luka can’t be blamed for hogging the ball. The front office needs to get him a second option who actually justifies reducing some of his usage. One-level scorers need to go, in favor of two- or three-level players. (He refers to the three levels of scoring as the ability to get to the rim, reliably complete jump shots inside the arc, and reliably hit threes — if you can do one of those things you’re a one-level scorer, and on up.) You can have a guy who is a one-level scorer if his one level is hitting threes, but you mostly need guys who can score in multiple ways.
Without a second option, the offense dies when Luka sits, the team is overly dependent on high-variance three-point shooting, and the offense tends to stagnate at the ends of games.
On the defensive end, the Mavs need a new philosophy and a clear plan. Overhauling the roster will be necessary to effectively improve the defense. Putting different faces in the same roles won’t be good enough. Finding a more versatile center is the first step. But they also have to spend some money/assets on long wings. The other teams who have made headway in the postseason are able to mix up their coverages and attacks, while Dallas cannot.
After putting together a coherent plan, the Mavs’ needs 1A and 1B are a secondary ball handler and a proper center. The one-trick ponies need to be weeded out or limited to smaller roles and replaced with better overall players whose skills and abilities match the way the Mavs want to play.
CURRENT PLAYERS
RICHARDSON. The offseason’s marquee move for JRich made sense on paper, but was a disaster in practice. Josh is an above-average defender for his position. However, he is not just a zero on offense, he actually tanks the O when he is on the floor, hanging on to the ball and dribbling out possessions that too often end in a missed shot or a turnover. He takes more long twos than just about anyone in the league, cannot complete the absurd number of open shots Luka creates for him, can’t get to the rim even against the weaker defenders who end up guarding him, and he kills the momentum. He has had these same problems — lack of touch around the basket, lack of burst, etc. — at multiple teams, and it’s definitely a problem with him, rather than the coach or the scheme. It is hard to operate as a playmaker when you can’t shoot, and nobody closes out hard on Josh, no matter how many shots he makes on the night. Not a guy who is suited to the playoffs. Has to go.
BRUNSON. Brunson has done far better than we could have expected as an offensive option, but is limited by his size in how much he can get to the basket and finish there. He does have a good touch around the basket, which separates him from JRich. But he doesn’t have a good pull-up jumper or an elite three-point shot. Under the current roster construction, Brunson is asked to do far too much. He doesn’t have the floor vision or the size to take on a bigger role. What he does extremely well is attack mismatches in second units and feast on smaller guards. However, he struggles against bigger players, and carving out a larger role for him only results in dwindling efficiency. He is good enough to keep around, but not to take on a starting role.
HARDAWAY. Tim is another excellent shooter, but cannot consistently get downhill or create for others. He would benefit greatly from a secondary ballhandler, who could get him cleaner looks and take the pressure off him to create.
BURKE. A microwave scorer, but doesn’t do much of anything else.
GREEN. Was not the greatest choice at #18. Think someone at the draft probably thought the team needed defense, so they picked Green. That is not a smart way to draft, since the Mavs were not planning on having to rely on him this season. At that point in the draft, you draft a guy for the next five years, not to fill a short-term need. They should have picked the best player available at that slot, rather than a player who might have been able to play a little defense now. If they need to use a youngster in a trade, may not be much in the way of demand for Josh.
PORZINGIS. KP is an excellent shooter, but doesn’t add much else offensively. If the Mavs decide to keep him, Joe would back him to have an improved season. However, even if he bounces back, he still doesn’t fill the need for a true center who can roll to the rim. Joe would try using him as a four offensively, and putting a real center next to him. Thinking of guys like Richaun Holmes, Larry Nance, Jr., and Jarrett Allen.
POWELL. Is a good rim runner, and can offer perimeter defense, but cannot defend traditional centers or protect the rim, and is not a shooter.
WILLIE. A slightly better rim protector than Powell, but has no offensive game. Despite his superior athleticism and great looks from Luka, he shoots only 53% at the rim, and only 65% on open dunks. You almost have to try to be that bad. Defensively, he gets some showy blocks, but the reason he has to make those acrobatic plays is usually because he’s out of position in the first place.
KLEBER. Maxi adds perimeter shooting and solid defense on the weak side and the perimeter, but does not protect the rim. He is good enough to be in the rotation, but if the Mavs need to trade some guys, he would probably be one of the players in demand.
MELLI. Not an NBA-level player. Might be okay to stand at the three-point line for like six minutes per game.
BOBAN. It’s okay to keep a one-way specialist like Bobi to come off the end of the bench in the special situations where he can be helpful, but he shouldn’t be a part of the regular rotation.
BIGS AS A GROUP. This is a collection of specialists. There is no proper center on the roster. The opponent can tell what coverage they are going to run by the big they put on the floor. With KP at center, the Mavs tend to run the increasingly ineffective drop coverage, to account for his lack of mobility. This doesn’t suit the rest of the roster, as none of the guards is effective at defending the point of attack. With Willie and Powell, the Mavs play more aggressive coverages, but they don’t have the personnel to commit to them for very long. Maxi and DFS are the only players long enough and aggressive enough to challenge the other opposition players while the Mavs are doubling up the opponent’s top scorer. They need more long wings if they want to defend aggressively.
SUMMARY
In addition to better players, the Mavs need a consistent philosophy on which to build a roster, instead of making piecemeal reactionary choices. Drafting Josh Green, a defensive project, doesn’t fit well with trading for JJ Redick, an ultimate win-now piece. This is an extremely talent-starved roster. The very young players aren’t ready to contribute. The veterans aren’t good enough to play the roles they have been assigned.
We can look at well-constructed rosters like Atlanta, Denver, and the Clippers as examples of how to put together teams that play somewhat like the Mavericks. The Mavs had only two of the best 10 players in the first round — Luka and Tim. On some nights, KP might have squeaked into ninth or tenth place. The conference finalists have very few one-way players. They can mix up their actions on both ends of the floor.
The logic of assembling the team made sense on paper. Surround Luka with shooters in a five-out scheme, or run a four-out scheme with an athletic big man. The problem was with the execution in filling out those roles. No one but Luka could create, forcing them to rely on threes. When the shots weren’t falling, they had no way to adjust. In that scheme, you need multiple guys who can consistently get downhill.
It is not going to be easy to completely overhaul the roster in one offseason, especially since the Mavs have almost no draft capital and a dearth of players that rebuilding teams are likely to covet in exchange for their stars/good players. The new secondary playmaker will probably need to be an older guard, along the lines of Mike Conley. If they spend their free agency money in that direction, they might be able to also get a good big man who doesn’t break the bank, with a little luck.
Overall, the Mavericks need to develop a consistent and clear philosophy about how to play, and match the players they acquire to the plan. They should stop acquiring rotation players by looking for discount solutions in reaction to specific deficiencies, and should spend some money/assets in acquiring versatile two-way players who have the quality to perform well against top-level competition. This summer may be their last best chance to upgrade to a roster suitable to Luka's talent.
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2021/6/22/...-porzingis
MMB: THE ROSTER ISN”T GOOD ENOUGH
Joe Hulbert wrote an article, and accompanied it with a podcast, about the team. He re-watched the playoff games in response to a lot of fingers pointed in Rick’s and Luka's direction and came away convinced that the roster needs a major overhaul. He thinks this roster’s ceiling is making the playoffs and MAYBE getting out of the first round if a lot of things go right, but that no coach can take them beyond that. He has some suggestions on how to fix things.
BIG-PICTURE CONCERNS
The Mavericks have a history of operating on a patchwork basis at a number of levels. They don’t have an overarching philosophy, whether we’re talking about player acquisition, or offensive/defensive systems. They have typically made moves to address particular holes that need filling at the time, and that has led to a cupboard of one-dimensional, ill-fitting pieces.
Luka can’t be blamed for hogging the ball. The front office needs to get him a second option who actually justifies reducing some of his usage. One-level scorers need to go, in favor of two- or three-level players. (He refers to the three levels of scoring as the ability to get to the rim, reliably complete jump shots inside the arc, and reliably hit threes — if you can do one of those things you’re a one-level scorer, and on up.) You can have a guy who is a one-level scorer if his one level is hitting threes, but you mostly need guys who can score in multiple ways.
Without a second option, the offense dies when Luka sits, the team is overly dependent on high-variance three-point shooting, and the offense tends to stagnate at the ends of games.
On the defensive end, the Mavs need a new philosophy and a clear plan. Overhauling the roster will be necessary to effectively improve the defense. Putting different faces in the same roles won’t be good enough. Finding a more versatile center is the first step. But they also have to spend some money/assets on long wings. The other teams who have made headway in the postseason are able to mix up their coverages and attacks, while Dallas cannot.
After putting together a coherent plan, the Mavs’ needs 1A and 1B are a secondary ball handler and a proper center. The one-trick ponies need to be weeded out or limited to smaller roles and replaced with better overall players whose skills and abilities match the way the Mavs want to play.
CURRENT PLAYERS
RICHARDSON. The offseason’s marquee move for JRich made sense on paper, but was a disaster in practice. Josh is an above-average defender for his position. However, he is not just a zero on offense, he actually tanks the O when he is on the floor, hanging on to the ball and dribbling out possessions that too often end in a missed shot or a turnover. He takes more long twos than just about anyone in the league, cannot complete the absurd number of open shots Luka creates for him, can’t get to the rim even against the weaker defenders who end up guarding him, and he kills the momentum. He has had these same problems — lack of touch around the basket, lack of burst, etc. — at multiple teams, and it’s definitely a problem with him, rather than the coach or the scheme. It is hard to operate as a playmaker when you can’t shoot, and nobody closes out hard on Josh, no matter how many shots he makes on the night. Not a guy who is suited to the playoffs. Has to go.
BRUNSON. Brunson has done far better than we could have expected as an offensive option, but is limited by his size in how much he can get to the basket and finish there. He does have a good touch around the basket, which separates him from JRich. But he doesn’t have a good pull-up jumper or an elite three-point shot. Under the current roster construction, Brunson is asked to do far too much. He doesn’t have the floor vision or the size to take on a bigger role. What he does extremely well is attack mismatches in second units and feast on smaller guards. However, he struggles against bigger players, and carving out a larger role for him only results in dwindling efficiency. He is good enough to keep around, but not to take on a starting role.
HARDAWAY. Tim is another excellent shooter, but cannot consistently get downhill or create for others. He would benefit greatly from a secondary ballhandler, who could get him cleaner looks and take the pressure off him to create.
BURKE. A microwave scorer, but doesn’t do much of anything else.
GREEN. Was not the greatest choice at #18. Think someone at the draft probably thought the team needed defense, so they picked Green. That is not a smart way to draft, since the Mavs were not planning on having to rely on him this season. At that point in the draft, you draft a guy for the next five years, not to fill a short-term need. They should have picked the best player available at that slot, rather than a player who might have been able to play a little defense now. If they need to use a youngster in a trade, may not be much in the way of demand for Josh.
PORZINGIS. KP is an excellent shooter, but doesn’t add much else offensively. If the Mavs decide to keep him, Joe would back him to have an improved season. However, even if he bounces back, he still doesn’t fill the need for a true center who can roll to the rim. Joe would try using him as a four offensively, and putting a real center next to him. Thinking of guys like Richaun Holmes, Larry Nance, Jr., and Jarrett Allen.
POWELL. Is a good rim runner, and can offer perimeter defense, but cannot defend traditional centers or protect the rim, and is not a shooter.
WILLIE. A slightly better rim protector than Powell, but has no offensive game. Despite his superior athleticism and great looks from Luka, he shoots only 53% at the rim, and only 65% on open dunks. You almost have to try to be that bad. Defensively, he gets some showy blocks, but the reason he has to make those acrobatic plays is usually because he’s out of position in the first place.
KLEBER. Maxi adds perimeter shooting and solid defense on the weak side and the perimeter, but does not protect the rim. He is good enough to be in the rotation, but if the Mavs need to trade some guys, he would probably be one of the players in demand.
MELLI. Not an NBA-level player. Might be okay to stand at the three-point line for like six minutes per game.
BOBAN. It’s okay to keep a one-way specialist like Bobi to come off the end of the bench in the special situations where he can be helpful, but he shouldn’t be a part of the regular rotation.
BIGS AS A GROUP. This is a collection of specialists. There is no proper center on the roster. The opponent can tell what coverage they are going to run by the big they put on the floor. With KP at center, the Mavs tend to run the increasingly ineffective drop coverage, to account for his lack of mobility. This doesn’t suit the rest of the roster, as none of the guards is effective at defending the point of attack. With Willie and Powell, the Mavs play more aggressive coverages, but they don’t have the personnel to commit to them for very long. Maxi and DFS are the only players long enough and aggressive enough to challenge the other opposition players while the Mavs are doubling up the opponent’s top scorer. They need more long wings if they want to defend aggressively.
SUMMARY
In addition to better players, the Mavs need a consistent philosophy on which to build a roster, instead of making piecemeal reactionary choices. Drafting Josh Green, a defensive project, doesn’t fit well with trading for JJ Redick, an ultimate win-now piece. This is an extremely talent-starved roster. The very young players aren’t ready to contribute. The veterans aren’t good enough to play the roles they have been assigned.
We can look at well-constructed rosters like Atlanta, Denver, and the Clippers as examples of how to put together teams that play somewhat like the Mavericks. The Mavs had only two of the best 10 players in the first round — Luka and Tim. On some nights, KP might have squeaked into ninth or tenth place. The conference finalists have very few one-way players. They can mix up their actions on both ends of the floor.
The logic of assembling the team made sense on paper. Surround Luka with shooters in a five-out scheme, or run a four-out scheme with an athletic big man. The problem was with the execution in filling out those roles. No one but Luka could create, forcing them to rely on threes. When the shots weren’t falling, they had no way to adjust. In that scheme, you need multiple guys who can consistently get downhill.
It is not going to be easy to completely overhaul the roster in one offseason, especially since the Mavs have almost no draft capital and a dearth of players that rebuilding teams are likely to covet in exchange for their stars/good players. The new secondary playmaker will probably need to be an older guard, along the lines of Mike Conley. If they spend their free agency money in that direction, they might be able to also get a good big man who doesn’t break the bank, with a little luck.
Overall, the Mavericks need to develop a consistent and clear philosophy about how to play, and match the players they acquire to the plan. They should stop acquiring rotation players by looking for discount solutions in reaction to specific deficiencies, and should spend some money/assets in acquiring versatile two-way players who have the quality to perform well against top-level competition. This summer may be their last best chance to upgrade to a roster suitable to Luka's talent.
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2021/6/22/...-porzingis
