2021 FREE AGENCY: Markkanen wants out of CHI | DAL "definitely interested"

[Mapka]

Been saying for a while and will keep saying this until I hear any new rumor that would lead me away from this opinion: Collins is the number 1 target.

Mavs will offer him a lot of money, will do any kind of Schwartz favors required and send Maxi + stuff to Atlanta as compensation. The goal will be to get him with outgoing salary, likely involving at least 1 other team so that Mavs can retain THJ. 

MLE could be part of the Schwartz favors side of the deal where they give Dipo or another Schwartz client some money.

The Hawks didn't like Maxi and stuff at the TDL.
I don't see who we would send out with Maxi to get over 20 Mio unless we pay OKC to take opted in JRich or Powell.
But if it's Powell we further gut our bench and lose more "stuff" we don't have.
We killed all our chances for JC and if Dipo isn't miraclely back to being a player, still don't have someone making a single play if Luka sits.

I would rather sign the best playmaker we can get with the MLE and run it back as it is, looking at the next TDL.

[Jakeospikez]

He is a very good player, but he put up those number as a center, and his defense was poor from that spot.  He played much better defense as a 4 with Capella behind him, but his offensive numbers went down (18/7).  I don't think you get both the good defense and the big numbers unless you pair him with a floor spacing rim protecting center (last seasons KP and/or Maxi).

Defense was much better with Capela, but he can't be featured in the pnr sharing the floor with Capela. His pnr possessions went from 5.1/game in 19/20 to 2.5 in 20/21. Maybe why Atl decides they can't max him, they need Capela for defense and they don't get proper value out of JC if he's not the primary roll guy. He can be the primary roll man here.

[StepBackJay]

The Hawks didn't like Maxi and stuff at the TDL.
I don't see who we would send out with Maxi to get over 20 Mio unless we pay OKC to take opted in JRich  or Powell.
But if it's Powell we further gut our bench and lose more "stuff" we don't have.
We killed all our chances for JC and if Dipo isn't miraclely back to being a player, still don't have someone making a single play if Luka sits.

I would rather sign the best playmaker we can get with the MLE and run it back as it is, looking at the next TDL.

Right they didn't need to trade Collins at the TDL when they were winning games especially knowing they could get the same value or better in the summer, while also giving them time to decide whether or not to keep him.

Maxi has value so you could route him somewhere (Celtics for example) for some asset that goes back to ATL if they don't want him. Dipo should play this next year so I think he will be a usable player and that might be the cost of getting Schwartz on board.

J Rich I believe will also be sent somewhere. His contract I think has a little bit of value still so you could at least trade him for nothing basically to help with salary matching. Maxi + J Rich gets you pretty close depending on whatever the final number is for Collins. Mavs have other filler (WCS, Burke for example) that could always get tossed in. 

Atlanta might say no thanks, we will just pay the going rate for Collins and ship Gallo off to clean up the cap sheet a little bit. Reading their GM's comments from a week ago doesn't point to them wanting to do that. I would have expected him to double down on previous comments that they would match any contract offer, which he did not do.

At any rate I believe Collins is gettable and Cubes will go in hard to get him.

[Mapka]

Right they didn't need to trade Collins at the TDL when they were winning games especially knowing they could get the same value or better in the summer, while also giving them time to decide whether or not to keep him.

Maxi has value so you could route him somewhere (Celtics for example) for some asset that goes back to ATL if they don't want him. Dipo should play this next year so I think he will be a usable player and that might be the cost of getting Schwartz on board.

J Rich I believe will also be sent somewhere. His contract I think has a little bit of value still so you could at least trade him for nothing basically to help with salary matching. Maxi + J Rich gets you pretty close depending on whatever the final number is for Collins. Mavs have other filler (WCS, Burke for example) that could always get tossed in. 

Atlanta might say no thanks, we will just pay the going rate for Collins and ship Gallo off to clean up the cap sheet a little bit. Reading their GM's comments from a week ago doesn't point to them wanting to do that. I would have expected him to double down on previous comments that they would match any contract offer, which he did not do.

At any rate I believe Collins is gettable and Cubes will go in hard to get him.

You're saying, what I say
(I just don't think they will get something worth it in a SnT).
You just want it to happen  because you see it as something, that makes us better.

I see it as something that prevents us from getting better now and as a hindrance in the future.

[StepBackJay]

You're saying, what I say
(I just don't think they will get something worth it in a SnT).
You just want it to happen  because you see it as something, that makes us better.

I see it as something that prevents us from getting better now and as a hindrance in the future.

No actually I am predicting this is going to happen, at least the Collins part. I think Mavs will target him as their number 1 guy and have a good chance to get him. The wisdom of such a move is questionable.

Now plans could change, we will start hearing more rumors soon so I am open to changing my view if I hear something else. But up to this point since the TDL I have thought this is their guy. Obv Donnie isn't here but Cubes is the actual GM.

[TXBamanut]

We will have to money whip Collins to get him.  He wants to stay in Atlanta, and about the only way he'll leave is if we pay more than Atlanta for him.  I don't like having to do that.

I would much rather him really want to come here, rather than us having to break the bank for him.  Also, I'm worried about his defense.

I'm cheering for him if he's here, but until he is, I'm being straight up about stuff.

[Aussiebballer]

Can Collins and KP play together long term?
Or would adding Collins then require trading KP?
Guess it depends on what KP turns up for next season.

[TXBamanut]

Can Collins and KP play together long term?
Or would adding Collins then require trading KP?
Guess it depends on what KP turns up for next season.

The simple truth is that if KP's issue was a combination of frustration brought on by his unrecovered injury and limitations physically and he returns to KP from the bubble, when he was healthy...that changes everything and there's a lot of moves that will look genius for the Mavs.

[ItsGoTime]

and comes without these stickers:

To this point!

[DanSchwartzgan]

I mean is Oladipo that bad of a plan for a 1 year MLE prove it deal...?

I actually wouldn't want him on a one year MLE deal.  There would be no way to keep him if he did "prove it".  To me, the way you get him (if you want him) is to trade for him and retain his Bird rights.  That can be for air (a TPE), it can be for JRich after you've done other things or that could even be for THJ if you assume they don't want to give him years/money.

If Dipo is a target, I expect to be surprised by amount (surprised as in disappointed).  Maybe JRich and something goes to Toronto as part of Lowry deal for Miami with Dipo to Dallas.  Big win if he's healthy and good.  DWright volume 3 if it doesn't work.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Here are Hollinger's BORD$ numbers at PF today for those who believe we need another PF to share the position with Maxi assuming the Collins dream is a no-go.


Tier 1: Max players
1. John Collins, Hawks (restricted): $26,142,092 (third overall)
 
Barring a toxic offer sheet from the Spurs, this may come down to a staring contest between Collins and the Hawks. In the end, it’s strongly in the interests of both parties to get a long-term deal done.  

Tier 2: More than midlevel but less than max
Nobody

Tier 3: Midlevel guys
2. Lauri Markkanen, Bulls (restricted): $11,916,654 (23rd overall)

One of the offseason’s top mystery men,  Markkanen is a minus defender and doesn’t rebound nearly enough for a player of his height, but despite those deficiencies, there’s a lot to like. He’s a potent inside-outside threat who hit 40.2 percent of his 3s last season and nailed 58.2 percent of his shots inside the arc, pouring in 25.6 points per 100 possessions overall.

A restricted free agent, Markkannen is likely to have interest outside Chicago and may only have tepid interest from the Bulls. 

3. Paul Millsap, Nuggets: $11,284,924
 
4. Nicolas Batum, Clippers: $10,595,480

Nicolas Batum’s bounce-back season with the Clippers showed he can still contribute at a high level with his switchability, shooting and basketball IQ. But that means the Clippers are in a tough spot to retain him. He was on a minimum deal, and the Clippers have no Bird rights, meaning they would have to use their taxpayer MLE to have any shot at keeping him. Batum’s market could end up even stronger than that — he’s only 32 years old, believe it or not, and he should have interest from a number of teams around the midlevel exception.[b] [/b]

5. Derrick Jones, Jr. Blazers (player option): $8,264,796

6. Doug McDermott, Pacers: $7,947,236
 
Indiana has full Bird rights on McDermott but has a tight squeeze under the luxury tax if it wants to keep both him and T.J. McConnell; in the absence of a trade, the Pacers will likely have to choose one or the other. If it’s not the Pacers, expect several teams to have interest in McDermott with the full MLE.

7. Zach Collins, Blazers (restricted): $7,839,102

Collins might be best off signing a one-year deal with Portland, rehabbing his injury and entering next summer’s market as an unrestricted free agent with full Bird rights.

8. Nemanja Bjelica, Heat: $7,817,627

9. Rudy Gay, Spurs: $7,543,075

[DanSchwartzgan]

BTW, here was the write-up on Korkmaz from yesterday.  He's both an Excel guy and a Nike guy.  If you got him for the MLE, what percentage of what THJ gives you are you getting for half the price?  80%?  More?  Three attempts per 100 are very similar.  FK is actually better from the corner and much more willing to come off the bench to play the 2 or the 3.  He's unassisted on 55% of his two's vs. 45% for THJ.  So, he puts it on the floor more and has a higher Assist % (but lower 2% this last season).


7. Furkan Korkmaz, 76ers: $10,833,690

As a card-carrying Furkan Korkmaz fan, it was encouraging to see him get some playoff starts and more or less hold his own. He still needs to increase his 3-point percentage a bit to be a truly deadly perimeter threat (37.5 percent last season), but at 12.2 bombs per 100 possessions, his floor-spacing threat is real. Korkmaz isn’t going to overwhelm anybody physically and can get pushed around in the wrong matchup, but he’s a disruptive enough defender (2.2 steals per 100) with size. More subtly, he’s also a good passer at the offensive end.

Korkmaz has been around a while but is still quite young, turning 24 this summer, and that’s also why the valuation is positive. The Sixers have full Bird rights, and one would think they’d try to bring him back, but there are tax implications if the price on him and Danny Green gets too high. His fate may ultimately hinge on whether Ben Simmons is dealt, and if so, for whom.

[F Gump]

I actually wouldn't want him on a one year MLE deal.  There would be no way to keep him if he did "prove it".  To me, the way you get him (if you want him) is to trade for him and retain his Bird rights.  That can be for air (a TPE), it can be for JRich after you've done other things or that could even be for THJ if you assume they don't want to give him years/money.

Let's put this sign-and-trade thesis to bed before it becomes a thing. The idea of a "prove it" deal with Oladipo, and the Mavs getting Bird rights to use after a year (in case he proves it and they need to offer him a new deal with a massive raise), is not solved by a sign-and-trade.

A sign-and-trade has to be a 3-year contract or longer, with at least one year fully guaranteed.
-- Issue #1 is Bird rights. They only convey, for use on the next deal, if the full 3+-year contract is played to its end. So there's no way for VO after year one to turn that SNT deal into a new, bigger deal after he proves it (if he does).
-- Issue #2 is contract commitment. Oladipo would not commit to 3 years at a small MLE-like "prove it" salary in the first place. 

If VO wants a one-year reduced salary "prove it" deal, it's way more likely he'll either take someone's one-year MLE offer (perhaps with a PO for year 2), or re-sign with MIA on a deal like that, and then go back in the FA pool in 2022.

Personally I'm not all that enamored by Oladipo. He had a good stretch until he got injured a few years ago, and while it would be great to get THAT player, that was then, not now. That player no longer exists, unfortunately.

[mvossman]

Been saying for a while and will keep saying this until I hear any new rumor that would lead me away from this opinion: Collins is the number 1 target.

Mavs will offer him a lot of money, will do any kind of Schwartz favors required and send Maxi + stuff to Atlanta as compensation. The goal will be to get him with outgoing salary, likely involving at least 1 other team so that Mavs can retain THJ. 

MLE could be part of the Schwartz favors side of the deal where they give Dipo or another Schwartz client some money.

I'm still confused why we would want to send Maxi in a Collins trade.  He is the perfect fit for Collins.  He can protect the rim on defense and stretch the floor on offense.  Collins can hit a wide open 3, but most of his offensive value is in the paint.  He has similarities with Powell.  He is obviously a better player and more versatile, but he would be most valuable matched to somebody like Maxi (or bubble KP).  

I'm skeptical we are going to be able to orchestrate a trade where we are getting Collins over the cap.  And if we do, just to sign THJ, we have not really addressed any of clear issues (defense and secondary play making/creation), and watching Dipo sit on the bench does not really help.

[HoosierDaddyKid]

We will have to money whip Collins to get him.  He wants to stay in Atlanta, and about the only way he'll leave is if we pay more than Atlanta for him.  I don't like having to do that.

I would much rather him really want to come here, rather than us having to break the bank for him.  Also, I'm worried about his defense.

I'm cheering for him if he's here, but until he is, I'm being straight up about stuff.

I'd like to think he'll stay in Atlanta because they have built a good team there if it isn't about the money.  They make a few more tweaks, and they'll be a contender for the next few years. The window is there for them. Can't say the same for Dallas as they have work to do.

[VintagePejav2]

https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status...75648?s=21

[omahen]

https://twitter.com/shamscharania/status...75648?s=21

Holmes is good, but I have several concerns:
1. I am affraid he will want to be paid big time. Overpaid
2. I am affraid about his fit next to KP on defense. Also Powell and Holmes can't play together.
3. It makes very little sense to add another big to already overpaid line of KP, Powell and Kleber. I would expect a lot of player movement if Mavs really went after him.

[KillerLeft]

Holmes is good, but I have several concerns:
1. I am affraid he will want to be paid big time. Overpaid
2. I am affraid about his fit next to KP on defense. Also Powell and Holmes can't play together.
3. It makes very little sense to add another big to already overpaid line of KP, Powell and Kleber. I would expect a lot of player movement if Mavs really went after him.

Yeah, it gets complicated to track everyone's opinions around here, but while some probably just want Holmes, regardless, I don't want anything to do with him if KP is still here. To me, he's only interesting as KP's replacement.

[Mak]

Still never has made sense to me why the Hawks wouldn’t ultimately do whatever it takes to keep Collins. He’s a great fit there, they don’t really have anyone to replace what he brings to the table, and their cap situation isn’t horrible to the point of being completely inflexible and manageable. 

It’s also almost always a benefit to the player long term under the NBA’s CBAs to stick with a team long term than jump ship, contract-wise, even if that includes a slight home-team discount at certain points. The obvious exception is if the player believes that team will degrade his value over time due to use/fit/teammates on the court … but that isn’t looking like an issue for him in Atlanta and likely a unknown risk he would be taking going elsewhere. 


He’s consistently mentioned in rumors as a free agent teams will chase which makes it *feel* like there’s a decent chance he leaves but idk, it seems kinda just like a soft public negotiation tactic at best between him and the Hawks moreso than Collins actually being a realistic target.

[dirkfansince1998]

Still never has made sense to me why the Hawks wouldn’t ultimately do whatever it takes to keep Collins. He’s a great fit there, they don’t really have anyone to replace what he brings to the table, and their cap situation isn’t horrible to the point of being completely inflexible and manageable. 

Agree. Even if they have to create some capspace Collins isn´t the guy that I would let go. They could easily attach a couple of 2nds or even a first to Gallinari and send him somewhere else.