2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[mvossman]

RE: Dinwiddie

I am NOT a fan....but I am more of a fan than DeRozan. Just want nothing to do with DDR. 

I can talk myself into Dinwiddie if I have to....DDR, not so much.

I've been trying to talk myself into DDR for the last month as I think it is the most likely outcome.  My only reasonable hope is that they manage to get Conley, who I would greatly prefer.

[Scott41theMavs]

My off-season hopes at this point are basically 

Plan A: Find some way to get Brogdon here and worry about everything else afterward.

Plan B: Trade KP for Murray or White, thus clearing more cap, barter off JRich's sorry butt, let THJ walk, trade Brunson for Robinson, and then give four NBA (semi-) Finals contract year hos more than their current teams can: Portis, Payne, Reggie, and Tucker. Use the rMLE to sign the best center available. Do you have any stars next to Luka? No, but you have three guys besides Luka in Murray/White, Reggie, and Payne who can create to some extent, plus a reasonable amount of playoff toughness added.

[mvossman]

My off-season hopes at this point are basically 

Plan A: Find some way to get Brogdon here and worry about everything else afterward.

Plan B: Trade KP for Murray or White, thus clearing more cap, barter off JRich's sorry butt, let THJ walk, trade Brunson for Robinson, and then give four NBA (semi-) Finals contract year hos more than their current teams can: Portis, Payne, Reggie, and Tucker. Use the rMLE to sign the best center available. Do you have any stars next to Luka? No, but you have three guys besides Luka in Murray/White, Reggie, and Payne who can create to some extent, plus a reasonable amount of playoff toughness added.

You should probably prepare yourself for disappointment.

[Scott41theMavs]

You should probably prepare yourself for disappointment.

Hell to the absolute no to any offseason which retains KP or acquires Oubre. Hell to the no to any offseason involving DDR (I'm off that bandwagon again after Kamm's cautions) or Lowry (too old and in clear decline). No to Dinwiddie. Lots of other possibilities like Collins or Conley could work. There's just a sense that Collins requires you to spend big assets without a way also to add a good shot creator next to Luka, while Conley is expensive and solves few other roster problems.

[Kammrath]

Hell to the absolute no to any offseason which retains KP or acquires Oubre. Hell to the no to any offseason involving DDR (I'm off that bandwagon again after Kamm's cautions) or Lowry (too old and in clear decline). No to Dinwiddie. Lots of other possibilities like Collins or Conley could work. There's just a sense that Collins requires you to spend big assets without a way also to add a good shot creator next to Luka, while Conley is expensive and solves few other roster problems.

The way forward is not obvious. 

This new regime has a chance to win me over REAL quick.....or lose me REAL quick. There are some middle ground routes where I will be in "wait and see" mode for the new leadership, but most of the routes will either get me on or off their bandwagon quickly.

[Okstate819]

Hell to the absolute no to any offseason which retains KP or acquires Oubre. Hell to the no to any offseason involving DDR (I'm off that bandwagon again after Kamm's cautions) or Lowry (too old and in clear decline. No to Dinwiddie. Lots of other possibilities like Collins or Conley could work. There's just a sense that Collins requires you to spend big assets without a way also to add a good shot creator next to Luka, while Conley is expensive and solves few other roster problems.

- Immediately sign Norm Powell (Or Dinwiddie IMO)  4yrs 80 Mill. 17.5 year 1 salary
- Trade Brunson & D Powell for Mitchell Robinson
- Trade KP for Hayward (maybe could get more from CHA?)
- Max out John Collins. (27.5 Yr 1 salary) and do the S&T with Maxi to ATL

Luka
Norm Powell
Gordon Hayward
John Collins
Mitchell Robinson

This is the type of roster overhaul I hope we see (and probably wont). Actually possible without even having to offload J-Rich even though they likely want to. 

The key to any KP trade is they need to have a frontcourt plan before pulling the trigger. Luka needs a rim protector/roll man type and with that the 4 needs to be able to shoot/score. This 5 man unit is very similar to what ATL had this year (expect way better because of Luka).

[Kammrath]

Luka
Norm Powell
Gordon Hayward
John Collins
Mitchell Robinson

That's a lot of changes....but I would be on board with this or even something approximating it. A Collins/Robinson front court would be incredible with Luka.

[Scott41theMavs]

Let's put it this way:

Base grades for major Mavs activities this offseason (adjustable in terms of what else they do around that):

Signing Kawhi: A+
Waiting on Kawhi and he eventually signs: a profoundly lucky C
Waiting on Kawhi and he goes elsewhere: F-
Signing CP3: A
Acquiring Brogdon: A+ or A, depending on what flexibility we have left afterward
Retaining KP: D (subject to move up if we make good moves around that; subject to tank to an F-, no matter what else we do, if he gets injured)
Signing any RFA to an offer sheet: D. Goes up to a C if the other team doesn't match, tanks to F- if they do.
Signing and trading for Collins without an offer sheet: A-, but subject to whatever else they do
Signing and trading for Ball: A
Signing and trading for Jarrett Allen: A. They would still need to add a playmaker, but this is a fantastic start.
Signing Richaun Holmes: A, if they find a way to add a playmaker; B if not.
Acquiring Turner: A-
Mike Conley: B+
Norman Powell: B
Acquiring THT (at less than $15M per): B (C for $15-$19M, D at more than $19M/year)
Acquiring Fournier: B-
Acquiring Dinwiddie: C
Acquiring Derozan: D
Acquiring Lowry: D
Inability to achieve any of the above: F
Acquiring Oubre: F-

Extra Credit:
Trading Brunson for Robinson straight up: A full grade level bump
Trading Brunson for Robinson with the Mavs adding a second rounder or two: Half a grade bump
Getting a star back in trade for KP (not happening): Two full grade level bumps.
Getting a young, longterm rotation player back in trade for KP: A grade level bump.
Getting a temporary rotation player back in trade for KP: Neutral
Taking on bad contracts back in trade for KP: A grade level deduction.
Clearing upwards of $7.5M on KP's salary in trade this year: Full grade level bump
Trading KP into space: Bump up a grade level and a half
Dumping Powell's salary without paying to do so: Bump up half a grade level
Acquiring a 2023 pick for future flexibility: Full grade level bump
Acquiring a 2021 lottery pick: Full grade level bump
Acquiring a 2021 non-lottery pick: Half grade level bump
Acquiring a 2021 2nd rounder: E for effort/teacher's pet for a day
Retaining THJ for sixth man money: Half a grade level bump
Retaining THJ at $15-$18M per: A half grade level deduction
Retaining THJ at more than $18M per: A full grade level deduction
Acquiring Portis, Reggie Jackson, Payne, or Tucker: A full grade level bump each for Portis and/or Jackson, a half grade bump each for Payne and/or Tucker
Acquiring Lauri: a half grade level bump if it's for more than MLE money, a full grade level bump if less
Operating over the cap and getting a top-five MLE player: A full grade level bump

[Okstate819]

That's a lot of changes....but I would be on board with this or even something approximating it. A Collins/Robinson front court would be incredible with Luka.

Agreed. That front court is a game changer with Luka. I would add in extra assets for either move to make it happen. 

Also, isint Hayward what we wish DDR was? Injuries aside, Hayward can run p&r and score in the mid-range. Is a legit 6"8,40% 3pt shooter, can play off the ball, probably better defender than DDR.... Just wondering what the overall opinion of a KP for GH swap would be. Preferably assuming we have a legit frontcourt plan to replace KP.

[cow]

You forgot THT but we'd need to bust out the SSS+++ rank for that.

[mvossman]

- Immediately sign Norm Powell (Or Dinwiddie IMO)  4yrs 80 Mill. 17.5 year 1 salary
- Trade Brunson & D Powell for Mitchell Robinson
- Trade KP for Hayward (maybe could get more from CHA?)
- Max out John Collins. (27.5 Yr 1 salary) and do the S&T with Maxi to ATL

Luka
Norm Powell
Gordon Hayward
John Collins
Mitchell Robinson

This is the type of roster overhaul I hope we see (and probably wont). Actually possible without even having to offload J-Rich even though they likely want to. 

The key to any KP trade is they need to have a frontcourt plan before pulling the trigger. Luka needs a rim protector/roll man type and with that the 4 needs to be able to shoot/score. This 5 man unit is very similar to what ATL had this year (expect way better because of Luka).

Lets go down that list:

Portland traded for Powell at the deadline and have no way to replace him if he walks.  I'm not sure there is any amount Portland wont match to keep him (and not further piss off Dame) but if there is a number they will balk at, it will be higher than starting at 17.5.

Not sure either the Nicks or the Mavs want to do a Brunson for Robinson deal.  Mavs are very likely in win now mode.  Not sure they want to take a project on as center (and it makes no sense unless they manage to dump KP).  Don't know why the Nicks would want to take on Powell?

I would love a KP/Hayward trade.  No idea if Charlotte is interested?  No idea if Mavs are interested?  This is probably my favorite reasonable dump KP route, but have no idea if anybody has even approached this.

I think the odds of Collins leaving Atlanta went down considerably after the playoff run.  I think they are going to want significant assets if they do let him go and Maxi is probably not enough.

I don't think any of these has a 50% of happening and most of them are approaching zero.  The chance of all of them happening is astronomically low.

I think a lot of people are setting themselves up for disappointment this offseason.  If anything, the new regime is less experienced/capable of pulling off trades than the old one.  I feel like the Nico pick was specifically to attract free agents.  My guess is the big move they make this offseason is DeRozan or Conley.  My guess is there would be a lot of disappointment/hate with the first and tolerance/hope with the later.

As for getting off KP, it may very well be that the best option to get off KP is Wiggins straight up (no picks).  Would you pull that trigger?

[ClutchDirk]

Collins and Brogdon will make me happy and give us 5 good starters...

[Okstate819]

Lets go down that list:

Portland traded for Powell at the deadline and have no way to replace him if he walks.  I'm not sure there is any amount Portland wont match to keep him (and not further piss off Dame) but if there is a number they will balk at, it will be higher than starting at 17.5.

TRUE. Replace with Dinwiddie or resign THJ in the same spot.

Not sure either the Nicks or the Mavs want to do a Brunson for Robinson deal.  Mavs are very likely in win now mode.  Not sure they want to take a project on as center (and it makes no sense unless they manage to dump KP).  Don't know why the Nicks would want to take on Powell?

Knicks had reported to be "monitoring" Brunson I believe. Like anything its unlikely, but view each guy as a similar value and similar contract status. So a need for need trade is possible IMO.

I would love a KP/Hayward trade.  No idea if Charlotte is interested?  No idea if Mavs are interested?  This is probably my favorite reasonable dump KP route, but have no idea if anybody has even approached this.

It seems plausible but your correct we have no reason to believe it will happen other than the random report that CHA would be "very interested" in KP from a month ago.

I think the odds of Collins leaving Atlanta went down considerably after the playoff run.  I think they are going to want significant assets if they do let him go and Maxi is probably not enough.

Comments from ATL owner lead me to believe otherwise. A max for Collins and hes gone IMO. If they want more assets (protected 2025 1st, Green, etc) Id part with them to get Collins.

I don't think any of these has a 50% of happening and most of them are approaching zero.  The chance of all of them happening is astronomically low.

Of course true.

I think a lot of people are setting themselves up for disappointment this offseason.  If anything, the new regime is less experienced/capable of pulling off trades than the old one.  I feel like the Nico pick was specifically to attract free agents.  My guess is the big move they make this offseason is DeRozan or Conley.  My guess is there would be a lot of disappointment/hate with the first and tolerance/hope with the later.

I agree, my biggest concern with NICO/Fin combo is the ability to complete trades and work the cap from the jump these first couple years.

As for getting off KP, it may very well be that the best option to get off KP is Wiggins straight up (no picks).  Would you pull that trigger?

100% yes. Trade a flawed big for a flawed wing every day of the week. Not even considering injury concerns.

[cow]

Knicks had reported to be "monitoring" Brunson I believe. Like anything its unlikely, but view each guy as a similar value and similar contract status. So a need for need trade is possible IMO.

I'd say JB has more value now. He's the better player. MR has more upside but hasn't put it all together yet and has had some injury problems.

I don't hate the idea of that swap conceptually, but I'm not sure you are getting equal value. I'd rather trade JB to the Knicks for one of our owed picks, preferably 2023 so that after this years draft, we have our full compliment of FRPs moving forward.

[Okstate819]

Knicks had reported to be "monitoring" Brunson I believe. Like anything its unlikely, but view each guy as a similar value and similar contract status. So a need for need trade is possible IMO.

I'd say JB has more value now.  He's the better player.  MR has more upside but hasn't put it all together yet and has had some injury problems. 

I don't hate the idea of that swap conceptually, but I'm not sure you are getting equal value.  I'd rather trade JB to the Knicks for one of our owed picks, preferably 2023 so that after this years draft, we have our full compliment of FRPs moving forward.

Wonder if we could get both? maybe we'd have throw in something else. Either way, I think its in our best interest to move Brunson for a wing or big this offseason.

[cow]

Wonder if we could get both? maybe we'd have throw in something else. Either way, I think its in our best interest to move Brunson for a wing or big this offseason.

I think that flip flops the trade value in that NY would be giving up too much.

[Kammrath]

As for getting off KP, it may very well be that the best option to get off KP is Wiggins straight up (no picks).  Would you pull that trigger?

100% yes. Trade a flawed big for a flawed wing every day of the week. Not even considering injury concerns.

100% with you that KP for Wiggins straight is something I would probably do. But I would TRY very hard to get a pick.

[Okstate819]

I think that flip flops the trade value in that NY would be giving up too much.

Probably. Its plausible a Brunson to NY deal can be made either way. 

Also wonder what happens with Nerlens and if NY tries to retain him. Wouldn't be a bad fall back option or rotational big here.

[cow]

100% with you that KP for Wiggins straight is something I would probably do. But I would TRY very hard to get a pick.

Just wait for Luka switches teams before investing in a #77 Jersey.

[Kammrath]

RE: Current Favorite Offseason Framework

1) Trade KP for Dejounte Murray (or Derrick White) + Jacob Poeltl

2) Sign and trade for John Collins

3) Sign Richaun Holmes (IF not able to get Poeltl in trade for KP)


Luka
Dejounte (or White)
DFS
Collins
Poeltl (or Holmes)