2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[Kammrath]

Conley has been near bullet proof his entire NBA career.

He has played 59% of the games in the last 4 seasons, or missed 41% of the games. My "half" of the games was a generalization and a fear of what was likely ahead for his body. 


Kemba was ALSO "bullet proof" early in his career. Small guards break down hardcore at the number of minutes Conley has played. There are exceptions, but I would NOT count on that.

[Kammrath]

You remember VP from the old board, right? He's pulling your leg.

Sorry, its been too long. 

Thanks for the reminder that this is all trolling.

[dirkfansince1998]

If we want to look at small sample sizes I would offer THJ the max before I offer Oubre more than the MLE. 21ppg on 69% TS in may. +12 in 29 minutes.

[Mavs2021]

I realize I’m snatching at small sample size straws here (or maybe I found a nugget that further proves Wiseman was a huge factor in hurting Oubre’s GS numbers  ).

Wiseman missed the month of February.  That happened to be Oubre’s best month by far.  In 15 games he scored 20 a night with 6.4 boards and was +1.5.  His O/D Ratings were 114/110.  He had a .604 TS% for the month and shot .425 from three on 5.7 attempts per night.

The best Warriors two man line-up involving Kelly Oubre (10+ minutes together) is Oubre/Looney and it ranks 54th on the team with a net rating of +1.7. Steph Curry has a negative net rating with three Warriors: Oubre, Wiseman and Payton III. Kelly Oubre has  a positive net rating with two Warriors: Looney and Draymond.

Hilariously the best three man line-up involving Oubre ranks 14th and includes Wiseman. Best four man line-ups ranks 14th on the team. There are multi-line ups including Toscano-Anderson, Damion Lee, Jordan Poole and even Brad Wanamaker and Mychal Mulder that rank higher.

There is a reason the Suns and Warriors gladly let him go. The Warriors will try to get something for him in a S&T, because his value is MLE. So if the Mavs offer him anything above the MLE, then they are surely the leader in the clubhouse.

Though I have faith this is just Peja trolling and the new MBT knows better than to chase Kelly Oubre. Well chasing as much as you need to chase a prostitute with 100 dollar bills.

[F Gump]

I realize I’m snatching at small sample size straws here (or maybe I found a nugget that further proves Wiseman was a huge factor in hurting Oubre’s GS numbers  ).

Wiseman missed the month of February.  That happened to be Oubre’s best month by far.  In 15 games he scored 20 a night with 6.4 boards and was +1.5.  His O/D Ratings were 114/110.  He had a .604 TS% for the month and shot .425 from three on 5.7 attempts per night.

GS is desperately committed to retaining Oubre. Right? If you want to search for a tell-tale sign of truths that may be "hidden by the numbers," GS's eagerness to keep him on the team, after seeing him up close for a season, should be helpful.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Stop it Dan you're going to convince me throwing 20mm at Oubre isn't a bad idea after all...

Small sample size theatre could explain those numbers like you suggested, but they could also be for real. If they are the Mavs could potentially sign the scoring forward they've been looking for. 

I'm coming around to nabbing Oubre at a cheap deal. Say 12mm per year. I have a sneaky suspicion that Oubre will want to make whatever he's making right now at the very least and wouldn't be open to a discount. So pencil him in for 15mm a year. 

Leaves the Mavs around 19mm to play with if they're renouncing everyone. Perhaps signing Conley first and then carving out the 15mm is the smarter move.

Just to be clear, no one is advocating $20 million for Oubre.  I believe that is a number he mentioned to a reporter or some such.  I don’t view it as realistic.

What I’ve said is you grab Conley with the $23.4mm in space you have if you assume JRich opts in (so, 2 years/$48mm or $3 years/$73mm).  Then, you sign and trade JRich to GS.  Unlike Utah, I think GS would be all over that deal.  That gives you a range of $16.7 million down to about $7 million for Oubre.  I tend to agree with your $15mm estimate as somewhat likely.  This gets trickier if JRich opts out, though you can still S&T JRich somewhere and trade match…just not to GS.

[DanSchwartzgan]

The best Warriors two man line-up involving Kelly Oubre (10+ minutes together) is Oubre/Looney and it ranks 54th on the team with a net rating of +1.7. Steph Curry has a negative net rating with three Warriors: Oubre, Wiseman and Payton III. Kelly Oubre has  a positive net rating with two Warriors: Looney and Draymond.

This might be helpful if you could eliminate Wiseman from all of these two man lineups.

[Mavs2021]

This might be helpful if you could eliminate Wiseman from all of these two man lineups.

 

What you mean?

I filtered for the best Warriors two man line-ups (players that spent more than 10+ minutes on the floor together), and Oubre is bad with almost every player, not just Wiseman. If Draymond (a top 10 defender) can barely keep his own net rating above zero, while playing with Oubre, how in the world is a rookie like Wiseman supposed to do it? Seriously Wiseman is supposed to play fall guy for Kelly Oubre being a statistical (advanced stats) bad player for his whole career, despite having top level supporting casts. Steph has a positive net rating with all regulars except two: Oubre and Wiseman.

Warriors went 12-3 without Oubre to finish the season.

Some heroes  here go mad crazy, when DFS misses two open threes and now they want to sign Kelly "44/33/76" Oubre. Something doesn´t add up here.

Hey you can talk me into Kelly Oubre at the MLE, but not to replace DFS in the starting line-up at 15M/year. That´s basically repeating the Crowder vs. Jefferson/Marion mess.

[DanSchwartzgan]

 

What you mean?

I filtered for the best Warriors two man line-ups (players that spent more than 10+ minutes on the floor together), and Oubre is bad with almost every player, not just Wiseman..

Warriors went 12-3 without Oubre to finish the season.

Really?  Go back and look at those final 15 games.  Who else was missing.

If you are filtering two man lineups, you don’t know who the other three players are.  To the extent Wiseman was in there also, you can’t make a judgement about who was having what impact.  What we do know is the most used five man Oubre lineup (with Wiseman) was trash and the next two most used Oubre lineups (without Wiseman) were +7 and +10.  After that, the sample sizes get pretty small (which obviously doesn’t bother me if it helps my argument).

[HAguiar95]

Really glad our board is not encouraging keeping THJ. Two and a half years should be enough evidence that we should not pay him what he wants (more than 15M would be bad), no matter what his father says. Hopefully without RC and Donnie, our board realizes that and operate under the cap, get another playmaker and bolster our frontcourt. Bullock for the rMLE should replicate THJ's role to a much lesser degree (C&S 3-pt shooter).

[ItsGoTime]

I agree that THJ shouldn’t get any more than $15M. However, I’d rather have him than Oubre honestly, if the money was the same.

[mvossman]

I agree that THJ shouldn’t get any more than $15M. However, I’d rather have him than Oubre honestly, if the money was the same.

Its not even close.  As Dan pointed out, losing THJ is going to be because we sign one of the big names (Kawhi, Ball, Collins, Conley, Lowry, DeRozan).  I would also put Norman Powell on that list and probably Devonte Graham.  You could make an argument for Fournier.  If we ended up trading KP, then Holmes would be on that list as well.  There is probably another 10 guys I would have on the list ahead of Oubre.

[BasketballJones41]

https://twitter.com/thenbacentral/status...87905?s=21

[BasketballJones41]

https://twitter.com/all_things_mavs/stat...14820?s=21

[ItsGoTime]

^ Tampering

[mvossman]

https://twitter.com/all_things_mavs/stat...14820?s=21

An injured crappier version of DeRozan.  Please god no!

[ClutchDirk]

^ Tampering

https://media.giphy.com/media/msKNSs8rmJ5m/giphy.gif

[Kammrath]

Dinwiddie is a career 41% FG, 31.8% 3P.....

[Mavs2021]

Really?  Go back and look at those final 15 games.  Who else was missing.

If you are filtering two man lineups, you don’t know who the other three players are.  To the extent Wiseman was in there also, you can’t make a judgement about who was having what impact.  What we do know is the most used five man Oubre lineup (with Wiseman) was trash and the next two most used Oubre lineups (without Wiseman) were +7 and +10.  After that, the sample sizes get pretty small (which obviously doesn’t bother me if it helps my argument).

So I ran the Warriors five man line-up with the same metric (at least 10+ minutes).

You know what the five worst line-ups have in common? Kelly Oubre. Only player to be on ALL five. Wiseman is on two of them.

The best five man unit with 40+ minutes, so a really large sample size, by far the best Kelly Oubre line-up INCLUDES Wiseman. NRtg of +27.8. The next best Oubre line-up is him playing with Seth, Draymond, Wiggins and Toscano-Anderson. So he´s basically the 4th or 5th best player in that line-up. That´s like putting Burke in a five man line-up with Luka, Porzingis, DFS and THJ and then acting like Burke is the reason it´s good.

You basically have to sell me that the Wizards, Suns and Warriors mis-judged the player that Kelly Oubre can be, but please don´t act like James Wiseman, who was in 7th grade, when Oubre´s NBA career started, is suddenly the driver of Oubre´s mediocre (advanced) career numbers.

Also what does that mean, if we by any chance acquire a top draft pick? Don´t we play him, because he allegedly makes Oubre look bad? Good players are supposed to carry and cover for rookies, not the other way around.

Sell me on the upside of 25 year old Oubre, since advanced numbers are not be all-end all to me, but don´t try to bring something up that is simply not there, to support the pro Oubre argument. He´s had plenty of veteran superstar/all-star teammates. His numbers have been mediocre on three teams and all seem to play better without him.

[HAguiar95]

Dinwiddie is a career 41% FG, 31.8% 3P.....

Would you prefer a carreer 45.3% FG 35.0% 3-pt? (edited)