John Collins...Our Third Star

[StepBackJay]

I only pay attention bc he seems like a guy the MBT is enamored with. Something tells me he is plan A.

[Kammrath]

Something tells me he is plan A.

[StepBackJay]

I am about 95% sure plan A for the Mavs is Collins in a S&T that involves Maxi and J Rich.

Mavs would offer Collins the full max (27/yr which is yes an overpay) and offer Maxi in a S&T to Hawks.

J Rich would also need to be added for salary matching. He could either be part of the package to the Hawks or routed to a third team. If the latter then Hawks would have a pretty good trade exception.

Now Mavs might need to sweeten the deal if Hawks play hard to get, perhaps including Terry, Green or 2nds into the mix. I bet they would add at least 1 or 2 second round picks.

In the end "my guess" is that MBT want a Luka friendly Maxi -> Collins upgrade + Dragic for the MLE. That would be a very Luka-friendly offseason.

Luka/Dragic
THJ/Brunson
DFS/Green
KP/Collins
Collins/Powell/WCS

I believe you would have Collins playing both PF & center. When he plays with KP he would be the center on offense but when playing with other centers he would be PF as he is in Atlanta.

[Mavs03]

I am about 95% sure plan A for the Mavs is Collins in a S&T that involves Maxi and J Rich.

Mavs would offer Collins the full max (27/yr which is yes an overpay) and offer Maxi in a S&T to Hawks.

J Rich would also need to be added for salary matching. He could either be part of the package to the Hawks or routed to a third team. If the latter then Hawks would have a pretty good trade exception.

Now Mavs might need to sweeten the deal if Hawks play hard to get, perhaps including Terry, Green or 2nds into the mix. I bet they would add at least 1 or 2 second round picks.

In the end "my guess" is that MBT want a Luka friendly Maxi -> Collins upgrade + Dragic for the MLE. That would be a very Luka-friendly offseason.

Luka/Dragic
THJ/Brunson
DFS/Green
KP/Collins
Collins/Powell/WCS

I believe you would have Collins playing both PF & center. When he plays with KP he would be the center on offense but when playing with other centers he would be PF as he is in Atlanta.

I would be thrilled with that offseason.  Dragic would be a great addition to our bench and could also play alongside Luka down the stretch in a tight game.  I also hope Tyler Bey is ready to contribute.  Maybe not on the offensive end but at least be a factor on the defensive side.

[Mavs03]

I am about 95% sure plan A for the Mavs is Collins in a S&T that involves Maxi and J Rich.

Mavs would offer Collins the full max (27/yr which is yes an overpay) and offer Maxi in a S&T to Hawks.

J Rich would also need to be added for salary matching. He could either be part of the package to the Hawks or routed to a third team. If the latter then Hawks would have a pretty good trade exception.

Now Mavs might need to sweeten the deal if Hawks play hard to get, perhaps including Terry, Green or 2nds into the mix. I bet they would add at least 1 or 2 second round picks.

In the end "my guess" is that MBT want a Luka friendly Maxi -> Collins upgrade + Dragic for the MLE. That would be a very Luka-friendly offseason.

Luka/Dragic
THJ/Brunson
DFS/Green
KP/Collins
Collins/Powell/WCS

I believe you would have Collins playing both PF & center. When he plays with KP he would be the center on offense but when playing with other centers he would be PF as he is in Atlanta.

2 Questions:

1) How can we resign THJ if we're offering Collins a max or near max deal?

2) Do we have the full MLE at our disposal?

[StepBackJay]

2 Questions:

1) How can we resign THJ if we're offering Collins a max or near max deal?

2) Do we have the full MLE at our disposal?

Great question. So Collins max would be 27 mil for year 1 or 29 yr 1 in a S&T. My guess is that Mavs would be working with the 27 number. For salary matching you need to send out 18 mil in salary to get the 150% match, as long as they stay under the luxury tax line.

Mavs offered Maxi at the TDL and so I think he is a central piece of this deal. Maxi's outgoing salary would be 8.75. Josh Richardson's opt-in number would be 11.6. That adds up to over 20 which satisfies the matching rule.

Either the Hawks would take both players directly or if they don't care about say Richardson, he could be routed to a third team. Mavs may need more sweeteners but the max number is important in my view because it a) is a number Collins really wants (players want to be a "max" player not a "in the neighborhood of max: player) b) it's a number that makes Atlanta uncomfortable to match and thus is the leverage the Mavs have in this negotiation.

With the salary matching Mavs would be able to keep any of their guys and have the full MLE as long as they can stay under that 132 luxury tax number (it should be pretty close after all is said and done).

If the Hawks scoff then the Mavs can still clear up space to offer Collins a big deal and sign THJ but then it's harder to stretch their cap space. Starting with 34 if they pay Collins 27, that leaves only 7 mil. Moving Kleber would get you to 16. I bet you could offer Maxi "for free" to someone who also would take Burke. That gets you to 19-ish which I think is close enough to THJ's first year number. I believe THJ will fall somewhere btwn 15-20 for that first year.

You only make those additional moves if Atlanta matches, but you probably have it lined up beforehand. Atlanta if they don't match get no assets and if they do match they have a very tough cap situation going forward. They will be motivated to make a deal.

If Mavs did get Collins for a straight max offer sheet then they lose rights/holds to several guys including WCS. Mavs will have the rMLE but that's it for finding a ball-handler and center.

I am pretty sure signing Collins for cap space will not happen because it doesn't help Atlanta or Dallas to operate this way. Mavs lose over-the-cap tools and Hawks don't get any assets.

What's most likely the happen is Mavs come to an agreement with the Hawks before FA even begins so that they can offer Collins a max deal at the start of FA, knowing that they already have a trade in place. For Collins it should be an easy decision because I don't see any of the other talent-starved teams going all-in on Collins with a max contract.

Of the teams with max cap space, Dallas is the only one hot for Collins.

I really think this is a deal Mavs feel very confident in because they know they have a very competitive offer not only for Collins but also for the cap-strapped Hawks.

[F Gump]

So Collins max would be 27 mil for year 1 or 29 yr 1 in a S&T.  

Maximum salary is just what it says. It doesn't matter how you get him.

[StepBackJay]

Maximum salary is just what it says. It doesn't matter how you get him.

Someone said its more in a S&T. Do you know what the number would be for year 1 - is it going to be that 27 number?

[StepBackJay]

So if you want to be a Mavs optimist you would say Collins turned down the 90 mil and clearly wants a max deal. That is going to be tough for Atlanta to swallow with Young max extension the same summer + upcoming deals for Hunter, Huerter, Reddish who form their core group of young players on top of vets Gallo, Bog, Capella. Hawks might rather spread that money around rather than put it all into Collins. Collins numbers have gone down since Capella came back healthy. The extension for 90 mil was back when Collins was still a 20/10 guy.

The pessimist would say that Hawks and Collins were already in the neighborhood of a deal. If Hawks decline Mavs offers they could just offer Collins 100 mil and worry about cap issues when they get here. Hawks can probably stay under the luxury tax line this year and make moves next season to get under the tax line. Gallo would probably be the first cap casualty in 2022. It's possible that we even hear a deal is done as soon as FA opens which immediately puts Mavs into plan B-Z mode.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Someone said its more in a S&T. Do you know what the number would be for year 1 - is it going to be that 27 number?

25% of Cap projection of $112,400,000 = $28,100,000

[Mavs03]

Great question. So Collins max would be 27 mil for year 1 or 29 yr 1 in a S&T. My guess is that Mavs would be working with the 27 number. For salary matching you need to send out 18 mil in salary to get the 150% match, as long as they stay under the luxury tax line.

Mavs offered Maxi at the TDL and so I think he is a central piece of this deal. Maxi's outgoing salary would be 8.75. Josh Richardson's opt-in number would be 11.6. That adds up to over 20 which satisfies the matching rule.

Either the Hawks would take both players directly or if they don't care about say Richardson, he could be routed to a third team. Mavs may need more sweeteners but the max number is important in my view because it a) is a number Collins really wants (players want to be a "max" player not a "in the neighborhood of max: player) b) it's a number that makes Atlanta uncomfortable to match and thus is the leverage the Mavs have in this negotiation.

With the salary matching Mavs would be able to keep any of their guys and have the full MLE as long as they can stay under that 132 luxury tax number (it should be pretty close after all is said and done).

If the Hawks scoff then the Mavs can still clear up space to offer Collins a big deal and sign THJ but then it's harder to stretch their cap space. Starting with 34 if they pay Collins 27, that leaves only 7 mil. Moving Kleber would get you to 16. I bet you could offer Maxi "for free" to someone who also would take Burke. That gets you to 19-ish which I think is close enough to THJ's first year number. I believe THJ will fall somewhere btwn 15-20 for that first year.

You only make those additional moves if Atlanta matches, but you probably have it lined up beforehand. Atlanta if they don't match get no assets and if they do match they have a very tough cap situation going forward. They will be motivated to make a deal.

If Mavs did get Collins for a straight max offer sheet then they lose rights/holds to several guys including WCS. Mavs will have the rMLE but that's it for finding a ball-handler and center.

I am pretty sure signing Collins for cap space will not happen because it doesn't help Atlanta or Dallas to operate this way. Mavs lose over-the-cap tools and Hawks don't get any assets.

What's most likely the happen is Mavs come to an agreement with the Hawks before FA even begins so that they can offer Collins a max deal at the start of FA, knowing that they already have a trade in place. For Collins it should be an easy decision because I don't see any of the other talent-starved teams going all-in on Collins with a max contract.

Of the teams with max cap space, Dallas is the only one hot for Collins.

I really think this is a deal Mavs feel very confident in because they know they have a very competitive offer not only for Collins but also for the cap-strapped Hawks.

Thank you for answering those questions.  If we get Collins, Dragic, and resign THJ...I think this is a top 4 team in the West.  Assuming good health and the return of a defensive-minded KP.

[StepBackJay]

Thank you for answering those questions.  If we get Collins, Dragic, and resign THJ...I think this is a top 4 team in the West.  Assuming good health and the return of a defensive-minded KP.

I definitely feel like its MBT's plan A. Upgrade Maxi/Powell both by getting Collins (also probably keep Powell) then get that backup ball-handler. Collins makes your team more KP-proof I guess in that you should still probably have a good front-court even if KP is injured, sitting or traded for something else. Collins plays now with a rim-roller so it really seems like you can play him with any of the Mavs bigs, be they stretch big (KP, Maxi) or rim-roller (WCS, Powell).

[hakeemfaan]

Thank you for answering those questions.  If we get Collins, Dragic, and resign THJ...I think this is a top 4 team in the West.  Assuming good health and the return of a defensive-minded KP.

I am not as high on Collins as some others here. Not that I would complain too much if they get him.  He is still better than many other options and this sets up KP to be traded if so desired.  The only thing I want from the MBT though is to have a backup plan. Too many times in recent years plan A has been to get a specific player. Plan B has been to sit dazed and throw sht on the walll when Plan A fails.

[mvossman]

I definitely feel like its MBT's plan A. Upgrade Maxi/Powell both by getting Collins (also probably keep Powell) then get that backup ball-handler. Collins makes your team more KP-proof I guess in that you should still probably have a good front-court even if KP is injured, sitting or traded for something else. Collins plays now with a rim-roller so it really seems like you can play him with any of the Mavs bigs, be they stretch big (KP, Maxi) or rim-roller (WCS, Powell).

I'm not so sure Collins is "KP-proof".  Collins is a good 3 point shooter, but its at 3 attempts per game.  He does most of his damage down low, which will be a lot harder to do with WCS or Powell clogging the paint.  And a Collins/Powell pairing would be rough defensively as neither can protect the rim.  He would be a good fit with Maxi, but you are trading him away in this scenario.

I get the idea of taking last years starting lineup KP/Powell/DFS/Luka/THJ and trying to improve the weakest link, but that lineup was below average defensively and that was before KP lost his mobility.  I'm just not sure how much Collins is really going to address that.

[StepBackJay]

I'm not so sure Collins is "KP-proof".  Collins is a good 3 point shooter, but its at 3 attempts per game.  He does most of his damage down low, which will be a lot harder to do with WCS or Powell clogging the paint.  And a Collins/Powell pairing would be rough defensively as neither can protect the rim.  He would be a good fit with Maxi, but you are trading him away in this scenario.

I get the idea of taking last years starting lineup KP/Powell/DFS/Luka/THJ and trying to improve the weakest link, but that lineup was below average defensively and that was before KP lost his mobility.  I'm just not sure how much Collins is really going to address that.

When I say KP-proof its like you still have a pretty good frontcourt even if KP isn't playing. Last year Mavs still had a good record when KP didn't play and that includes some of the disaster Powell/DFS lineups that dragged down the record.

So you have Collins in there doing stuff at a high level I think it gives you more flexibility than you might have otherwise.

[dirkfansince1998]

Looking like prime KP right now...

[dirkfansince1998]

Looking like prime KP right now...

Looks like a completly different player when they run pick and roll with him.
Needs to play next to a stretch 4/5 that can defend inside/out and is happy with less touches on offense. That´s what I hate about the Maxi for Collins idea. They could be really good next to each other. Perfect fit would be someone like Turner. Collins is an inside player. He can shoot but only takes wide open jumpshots. He should be the primary option in the pick and roll.

[ItsGoTime]

Please get Turner and JC this offseason! Please figure out how to add Brogdon with those two as well!

[StepBackJay]

Looks like a completly different player when they run pick and roll with him.
Needs to play next to a stretch 4/5 that can defend inside/out and is happy with less touches on offense. That´s what I hate about the Maxi for Collins idea. They could be really good next to each other. Perfect fit would be someone like Turner. Collins is an inside player. He can shoot but only takes wide open jumpshots. He should be the primary option in the pick and roll.

Well don't you think he can play with KP then? That's the idea at least. Collins would still do a lot of PnR. We saw the Mavs go back to Powell late in the year and Collins is like a supercharged version of Powell (and obviously one that can play in the playoffs).

[dirkfansince1998]

Well don't you think he can play with KP then? That's the idea at least. Collins would still do a lot of PnR. We saw the Mavs go back to Powell late in the year and Collins is like a supercharged version of Powell (and obviously one that can play in the playoffs).

Don´t think so. Collins isn´t a full time rim protector. Also isn´t the best perimeter defender. Ideally he gets the easier matchup (just like in Atlanta). I guess if KP remembers that he wanted to be the DPOY it is an option.
Fit on offense isn´t bad if KP is happy in a Brook Lopez 2.0 kind of role. Don´t think that is the case.