2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[ItsGoTime]

Looking at that list, some of which could be "peers" in terms of production, I still feel like that 13-18 range is pretty solid. Hield is the only big outlier I saw at first glance.

Hield, Bertans and THJ are the 3 outliers on all those lists. They don’t do anything else but have that high shooting % at high volume. It’s great to have off the bench at the right price. Hard to make a good roster when making too much. Get guys here that are more starting material and watch what THJ’s role has been diminish. That’s how it should be as well. Don’t count on the streaky shooter to be consistent, count on the consistent players to be what you need.

[DrMav]

"Holmes could find himself netting a deal worth upward of $80 million over four years, according to league personnel polled by Bleacher Report."

That seems a lot pricier than I would have thought.

[StepBackJay]

That seems a lot pricier than I would have thought.

Ya I don't believe he will go that high. We saw Christian Wood who was a hot name go for 3/40 and I would argue he had some more upside given his outside shot. Richaun Holmes is nice but he's been around and hasn't lit the world on fire. Looking at peer salaries I think 13-18 is the range and 13-15 seems more likely to me.

[DanSchwartzgan]

That seems a lot pricier than I would have thought.

My working number, based on something I heard around the TDL has been around $17mm.  The interesting thing with Holmes is there isn't a S&T path to anything like that.  So, if everyone with cap room that needed a Center suddenly found one, then he's screwed.  I suspect he will be one of those super early announcements with Dallas or Charlotte or someone else with cap room committing quickly.  He would be wise to not wait around for the music to stop and all the chairs be full.

That comes into play as regards Collins.  Holmes is gone if Dallas spends any time on Collins in terms of an outright offer sheet.  So, it means any Collins deal is something Dallas and Atlanta know they are doing before 5:01.  With Schwartz as the agent, that isn't hard to imagine (and I think we all know these conversations happen prior to the opening bell).  But, if Atlanta has any thought of getting something for Collins and using space themselves, they will have that agreement in place.  If not, Dallas will (or at least should) know that and can move on.

The big thing with Holmes and Dallas is the faction of the board who insists we need a playmaking guard more than a center.  IF we are moving on from THJ and JRich, there is money left to work with.  IF F Gump is correct and JRich opts in, then the options for replacing THJ after you've signed Holmes are largely on our team already.  Either that, or we need to be looking for JRich for a guard trade opportunities.

[HAguiar95]

39% >7 attempts

Stephen Curry
Zach Lavine
Damian Lillard
KyrieIrving
Jaylen Brown
Paul George
CJ McCollum
Malik Beasley
Kyle Lowry
Buddy Hield
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Duncan Robinson
Davis Bertans
Tim Hardaway

39% >6 attempts

Evan Fournier
Jamal Murray
Mike Conley
Joe Harris
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Nikola Vucevic
Michael Porter Jr
Danny Green
Reggie Bullock
OG Anunoby
Joe Ingles
Norman Powell
Wayne Ellington

38% > 7 attempts

Terry Rozier
D´Angelo Russell
Donovan Mitchell
Jayson Tatum
Gary Trent Jr
Armoni Brooks (barely qualified, only played 20 games)

Not a lot of cheap options.

Not sure why we have to replicate what he does. Can't we get a guy that shoots a lesser % or attempts but actually plays D or can handle the ball? Crunch time offense will always be a "problem" until we bring another playmaker next to Luka/Brunson. Norm/THJ/Richardson don't make the cut.

[KillerLeft]

Not sure why we have to replicate what he does.

With all due respect, I think this is why you don't appreciate him. 

Every good team has shooters. Nowadays, more than ever. And, he's not even close to the bad defender you make him out to be, imo.

[DrMav]

With all due respect, I think this is why you don't appreciate him. 

Every good team has shooters. Nowadays, more than ever. And, he's not even close to the bad defender you make him out to be, imo.

Agreed. He is far from a lockdown defender, but I think he plays reasonable man defense while often being stuck on the #1 or #2 perimeter player on the court, and he’s near the top of the league in charges drawn.

[StepBackJay]

IF F Gump is correct and JRich opts in, then the options for replacing THJ after you've signed Holmes are largely on our team already.  Either that, or we need to be looking for JRich for a guard trade opportunities.

Zero concern ab getting "stuck" with J Rich. Likely he can get his opt-in number or close enough to choose his destination. Worse case would be opt-in which to me is still easy to move for nothing. I have zero doubt he will not be on the Mavs if they don't want him back.

[StepBackJay]

I like Holmes, I feel like Charlotte will not be afraid to aggressively pay him bc they have nothing to lose really. That would be the challenge for Dallas. Hornets can keep their guys Monk/Graham with relatively low cap holds and still make a big offer to Holmes who they need. Noel is another guy they could look at or Robinson who could be made expendable with Noel playing well in NY. The Hornets are not afraid to overpay to get FA's so they would be a threat to the Mavs.

On the other hand, despite Collins being an RFA I think there is a deal to be made there.

My question with Holmes is don't you have too many bigs at that point - KP, Collins, Maxi, Powell? I guess in that scenario WCS is probably out as that's a lot of bigs. If Mavs are pretty focused on shoring up their big rotation Theis would be nice in that MLE-level range probably. He is on a Bulls team that isn't really going anywhere so he might consider a move.

[HAguiar95]

With all due respect, I think this is why you don't appreciate him. 

Every good team has shooters. Nowadays, more than ever. And, he's not even close to the bad defender you make him out to be, imo.

Yeah, I pretty much hate him and his playstyle (just watched 10 minutes of the Wizards game and already hate Bertans as well). As for his defense, we'll agree to disagree. To me he's hitting the Bradley Beal type of defense. LAC will hunt him and switch for an easy bucket or Jackson will blow by him easily. Most games you can see him resting and not even caring about D, focused on hunting his FGA. Total liability and by a good margin our worst defender (Luka 2nd worst). I know that guards have in average a negative impact on D, but it's just exausting watching him.

Can't we exchange our shooter for shooters that play D or can handle the ball? We will have the cap space for it. M. Morris is an example. Good shooter and all, but his contract is close to an albatross. Doubt any Clippers fan would choose him over straight cap space.

[Mapka]

My working number, based on something I heard around the TDL has been around $17mm.  The interesting thing with Holmes is there isn't a S&T path to anything like that.  So, if everyone with cap room that needed a Center suddenly found one, then he's screwed.  I suspect he will be one of those super early announcements with Dallas or Charlotte or someone else with cap room committing quickly.  He would be wise to not wait around for the music to stop and all the chairs be full.

That comes into play as regards Collins.  Holmes is gone if Dallas spends any time on Collins in terms of an outright offer sheet.  So, it means any Collins deal is something Dallas and Atlanta know they are doing before 5:01.  With Schwartz as the agent, that isn't hard to imagine (and I think we all know these conversations happen prior to the opening bell).  But, if Atlanta has any thought of getting something for Collins and using space themselves, they will have that agreement in place.  If not, Dallas will (or at least should) know that and can move on.

The big thing with Holmes and Dallas is the faction of the board who insists we need a playmaking guard more than a center.  IF we are moving on from THJ and JRich, there is money left to work with.  IF F Gump is correct and JRich opts in, then the options for replacing THJ after you've signed Holmes are largely on our team already.  Either that, or we need to be looking for JRich for a guard trade opportunities.

It's a game of chairs. We can sit someone on JRichs chair, we can add a chair with the MLE or we can burn a chair for a big we don't need.
Then we have to trade assets and bigs on better contracts for guard help.

I'd prefer keeping JRich than paying above market value to a big.

I'm fine with overpaing his upgrade after we kept THJ because it would be the last piece then.

[Branduil]

Given the cost, I would be more excited about Holmes, Brogdon, Turner, Lowry, and/or Conley. I hate to hurt KL's eyes, but likely Ball as well.

I would say that I'm close to believing that the ideal offseason would be KP and JB for Brogdon/Turner (don't think Indiana does that, but it would be great) with Collins as the cap room get. Gives us a fantastic starting lineup, but I'd still be pretty nervous with JB and THJ's shooting gone from the bench.

I don't think the Mavs would necessarily have to give up Brunson and THJ to get those guys. As I pointed out in the other thread, they can trade for Collins, re-sign THJ, and then make a trade of KP for Brogdon/Turner. As long as they do it in that order it would work within the cap.

[Mavs2021]

Holmes can only be a finishing piece, not a primary target. Holmes has ZERO re-trade value. As soon as you sign him, it´s over. He´s yours for the next four years. I don´t even care about the fit with Collins, but if you add him, he´s got huge trade value. He can easily be the centerpiece of a Beal or Lavine trade. Besides the fact that I do think he´s an excellent player.

If we learned one thing with Schwartz, he gets his deals done early. We don´t know his true intentions, whether he genuinely tries to convince his clients that Dallas is a good destination or whether we are just his preferred go to leverage play, because we always have capspace. If it is the former, the established God-mode Luka should help a lot with the arguments, compared to other years.

Either way we knew a week before FA started that Kemba was going to Boston and that Jordan "!$§%!"$§VOMIT%§&$"%$ here. So I´m confident he´ll have a pre-arranged deal for Collins around Kleber+X or we´ll know that Atlanta will match any offer and we can move toward different strategies.

[KillerLeft]

Holmes can only be a finishing piece, not a primary target. Holmes has ZERO re-trade value. As soon as you sign him, it´s over. He´s yours for the next four years. I don´t even care about the fit with Collins, but if you add him, he´s got huge trade value. He can easily be the centerpiece of a Beal or Lavine trade. Besides the fact that I do think he´s an excellent player.

This is a fair point.

[Branduil]

I wouldn't say Holmes has ZERO trade value because that's obviously false but if you're just talking about superstar trades, sure.

Really I think the key is getting it done ahead of free agency as a S&T. We all know that if it's an RFA offer sheet the Mavs will just screw themselves.

[Mavs2021]

I wouldn't say Holmes has ZERO trade value because that's obviously false but if you're just talking about superstar trades, sure.

Really I think the key is getting it done ahead of free agency as a S&T. We all know that if it's an RFA offer sheet the Mavs will just screw themselves.

I get the general scepticism, but how often have we tried to sign RFAs? Was Parsons restricted? Gortat? It´s not that often. In a sense signing somebody to an offer sheet would actually be progress, cause we usually can´t get anybody to sign anything in free agency.

[khaled1987]

I get the general scepticism, but how often have we tried to sign RFAs? Was Parsons restricted? Gortat? It´s not that often. In a sense signing somebody to an offer sheet would actually be progress, cause we usually can´t get anybody to sign anything in free agency.

Gortat, Parsons, Barnes were all RFA.
We agreed deal with Barnes before GSW agreed deal with KD iirc, but then they rescinded  QO before FA started

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

With all due respect, I think this is why you don't appreciate him. 

Every good team has shooters. Nowadays, more than ever. And, he's not even close to the bad defender you make him out to be, imo.

If the Heat go full press on THJ, I think some people might need to consider why the really smart organizations and front offices go so hard after our shooters like Seth and THJ.

[ItsGoTime]

If the Heat go full press on THJ, I think some people might need to consider why the really smart organizations and front offices go so hard after our shooters like Seth and THJ.

Because the smart FOs have the team in place to absorb the negatives of the shooters we develop.

[HanspardsShowerVoice]

Because the smart FOs have the team in place to absorb the negatives of the shooters we develop.

That would have more to do with Mavs flaws in roster construction circumventing THJ's value.  The smart front offices value THJ because he's extremely good at an extremely coveted and rare skillset, and he will be appreciated and paid accordingly by some smart front office.   It's also a skillset that the Mavs actually need more of rather than less of.   I would also caution that depleting our offense down to a mediocre unit in order to field a mediocre defense won't get us where we'll want to go, which is precisely why the JRich for Curry swap hasn't worked.