2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[dynamicalVoid]

John Collins last 2 games: 

Indiana: 25 points 7 rebounds 1 block

Washington: 28 points 8 rebounds 2 blocks

He's starting to play well for Atlanta.  For the season, he's averaging 18 points and 8 rebounds.  He's shooting 56% from the field, 39% from 3, 83% from the FT line.  Just envisioning a trio of Luka, KP, and Collins.  I know he's a restricted free agent, but we can make it uncomfortable for Atlanta with a front-loaded contract.  They have salary cap issues and for what it's worth, they've actually played decent without Collins at times throughout the season.  Okongwu has stepped up his game in Collins' absence.  However, he has a long way to go.  He's very unpolished.  But ultimately, Atlanta has to pay big money for Trae Young and Deandre Hunter in the next 2 years.  I believe they would like to keep Collins but are not willing to match a big contract.  Remember, they offered Collins 4 years 90 million at the beginning of the year which Collins rejected.  It also helps Collins' agent is Jeff Schwartz (a Mavs friendly agent)

I noticed that late game Collins was sitting behind 3 point line and they ran PNR with Young and Capela.  If that means anything.

I also noticed very late game they went to Collins in the paint close to the rim and he got it ripped away.  Only one play.

Does it mean anything that they prefer to go with Capela in the PNR late game?

Maybe it doesnt.  Maybe Capela and Collins are similar in PNR but Collins can shoot the 3.

[Scott41theMavs]

John Collins last 2 games: 

Indiana: 25 points 7 rebounds 1 block

Washington: 28 points 8 rebounds 2 blocks

He's starting to play well for Atlanta.  For the season, he's averaging 18 points and 8 rebounds.  He's shooting 56% from the field, 39% from 3, 83% from the FT line.  Just envisioning a trio of Luka, KP, and Collins.  I know he's a restricted free agent, but we can make it uncomfortable for Atlanta with a front-loaded contract.  They have salary cap issues and for what it's worth, they've actually played decent without Collins at times throughout the season.  Okongwu has stepped up his game in Collins' absence.  However, he has a long way to go.  He's very unpolished.  But ultimately, Atlanta has to pay big money for Trae Young and Deandre Hunter in the next 2 years.  I believe they would like to keep Collins but are not willing to match a big contract.  Remember, they offered Collins 4 years 90 million at the beginning of the year which Collins rejected.  It also helps Collins' agent is Jeff Schwartz (a Mavs friendly agent)

Going after Collins is only going work in a scenario in which 1) we conclusively move away from both THJ and JRich (presuming JRich opts out), or 2) we trade Porzingis.

Waiting around for the Hawks to match Collins with our thumbs up our butts is a great way to make this the third consecutive atrocious offseason, while virtually guaranteeing a worse roster next year.

[F Gump]

Going after Collins is only going work in a scenario in which 1) we conclusively move away from both THJ and JRich (presuming JRich opts out), or 2) we trade Porzingis.

Waiting around for the Hawks to match Collins with our thumbs up our butts is a great way to make this the third consecutive atrocious offseason, while virtually guaranteeing a worse roster next year.

I have to wonder if Collins is really good enough to be the "star #3" for the Mavs. Can you really build a team around a big 3 of Luka, KP, and Collins? Seems iffy to me.

He's definitely talented, but his play is consistently inconsistent, and he's only available if Atlanta (who knows him best) is convinced he's not that important to them.

And if he's not that 3rd star level, I don't think the Mavs will want to pay him what it takes, near or at the max. The guy they need to target seems more like a high talent two way wing.

[KillerLeft]

17m for THJ seems insane.

If THAT seems crazy, wait until you see what he's really going to get.

[KillerLeft]

I have always seen the idea of Holmes on this roster as something you add with DP, not to upgrade. 

I don't disagree. I think the resistance to this is that A) the two absolutely cannot be played together, and B) that's potentially a ton of money to spend on two guys who play the same role. 

But, if you can figure out how to do it without limiting your ability to complete the roster, then absolutely!

[Scott41theMavs]

If THAT seems crazy, wait until you see what he's really going to get.

As long as it isn't the Dallas Mavericks paying it, fine.

North of $17 mil per/starting is 3rd star money for a 4th-best-player-on-a-championship-team-level talent.

[KillerLeft]

North of $17 mil per/starting is 3rd star money for a 4th-best-player-on-a-championship-team-level talent.

That's cool for you to have that strong opinion, BUT: If KP is still here next season, after Luka signs his extension, will it really matter if THJ is paid more than you think he's worth? 

Now, if they're moving KP this summer and trying to extend the flexibility window (which I would absolutely be considering, if I was in their shoes) then sure, it's a tough conversation.

PLUS: (typing this with a straight face) to me, Hardaway IS a third star level player. It's just that the team has no 2nd best player.

[mvossman]

All of this is well put.  I like the idea of one of Holmes/Powell/WCS on the floor at all times.  DFS at PF has seemed to work well with Powell and WCS lately, where it hasn’t worked so well with KP.  Part of that has been THJ has been on fire.  But, you absolutely can’t even try KP/DFS/THJ as your front court.  I also think it would be MUCH easier to build a team around a specific prototype as long as the version of that prototype is good enough.  

With that said, I’m not totally convinced our PF rotation can’t be KP and Maxi as long as we have the right rim runners at center.  I’m not convinced it can work either, but I’d like to see a little of it.

A couple of thoughts:

If we get Holmes, it has been mentioned that it likely won't be sign and trade which means we will be operating under the cap.  In that scenario I don't see us taking on WCS team option.  Maybe we can sign him for minimum, but good chance he is not on the team.

I assume by "the right rim runners at center" you mean guys who can rim run, but play power forward on defense?  I feel like putting a rim runner on the court with KP takes away one of his most useful/unique skills (pulling centers to the three point line) but pushing him out to the 4 on defense would truly crater his value.

Powell fits that mold (you don't want him playing 5 on defense anyways) and Holmes would too.  But adding Holmes (another ~15 mil) seems like serious over investment in our frontcourt.  We desperately need a SG to take some pressure off Luka and I don't see fitting that in with Holmes (unless maybe it's Graham).

[dynamicalVoid]

If THAT seems crazy, wait until you see what he's really going to get.

Even with mediocre Playoff showing?

Can you please give your THJ value assessment based on the following:

Great post-season for a contender

Great post-season showing for a team with a lot of cap space

Mediocre post-season for contender

Mediocre post-season showing for a team with a lot of cap space

Bad post-season for a contender

Bad post-season showing for a team with a lot of cap space

There is probably a better way for me to describe what I am asking...but I think you get the point that I am asking knowing that there are various factors that make THJ's price fluctuate

[DanSchwartzgan]

So, is the current version of THJ more or less valuable than the one that signed in NY based on his last season in ATL?  I think it is hard to argue he's worse.  Similar or slightly better seem reasonable.

So, in 2017 THJ made up 16.67% of the cap.  At that same percentage of the 21/22 cap, his number is $18.7mm.  He has certainly been the loyal soldier and a team first guy doing everything he's been asked.  $17mm has always been the most likely number for me with a range from the 14's to the 18's.  Years matter here also.  Recall, you can always give him a lower number in the first three years and put some guaranteed money in the fourth year that is actually really a way of getting the total contract to a certain number without the starting number being so high.  $9mm guaranteed in year four means you can start in the $14mm area and spend $20mm in free agency.

I personally think THJ is a better fit in a Holmes & Trade KP scenario than in a scenario where we are trying to figure out how to cover for the defensive issues with KP/Luka and THJ being your three best players.

[mvossman]

I have to wonder if Collins is really good enough to be the "star #3" for the Mavs. Can you really build a team around a big 3 of Luka, KP, and Collins? Seems iffy to me.

He's definitely talented, but his play is consistently inconsistent, and he's only available if Atlanta (who knows him best) is convinced he's not that important to them.

And if he's not that 3rd star level, I don't think the Mavs will want to pay him what it takes, near or at the max. The guy they need to target seems more like a high talent two way wing.

I don't think that group is good enough defensively to legit contend.  Collins needs a stud rim protector (like Capella) to protect him defensively.  In fact, I think Collins has a lot of the same fit issues that KP does.  Most stud rim protecting centers spend most of their time offensively in the paint (see Capella) which pushes Collins out to the three point line.  This basically turns him into a poor defensive, good offensive stretch 4 (something we want to avoid with KP).  That is a good player, but not a max player.  

A KP/Collins match would be perfect offensively.  Collins would be free to rim run to his hearts content, but could also step out to the perimeter and give KP or Luka tons of room in the paint.  I just don't think KP is good enough defensively to completely cover for Collins.  

What Collins really needs is somebody like Turner, who could hang on the perimeter and let him do his thing in the paint, but also cover him defensively.

[ItsGoTime]

THJ so far goes just nuts on those bottom dwelling teams, let's pay him more!

No show last postseason, but...let's pay him more!

Can't play defense...let's pay him more! (I mean, if KP is getting lambasted for not playing D, why would we quit there?)

Can mostly do 1 thing well when there is noone challenging his play...let's pay him more!


I really hope it's not the Mavs that pay him more. More importantly I hope they don't outbid themselves in the process.

[KillerLeft]

Can't play defense...let's pay him more! (I mean, if KP is getting lambasted for not playing D, why would we quit there?)

I think Hardaway is a little underrated, defensively, as you well know. 

I don't WANT him to make more money, but it's silly to see what he got for THIS deal, see that he has IMPROVED since then, and that shooting is even MORE valuable now, and conclude that he's on his way to a big pay cut. I put the over/under at $18 mil, and I wouldn't be shocked at 3/$60 mil. Anything less than that is a good deal, imo.

[dirkfansince1998]

THJ so far goes just nuts on those bottom dwelling teams, let's pay him more!

Nets, Heat. Really bad teams...

[KillerLeft]

More importantly I hope they don't outbid themselves in the process.

I for sure agree with this.

[ItsGoTime]

Nets

The defensive juggernaut.

Heat

For every Heat game, I'll find you 3 other teams of poor performance.

[Mapka]

I think Hardaway is a little underrated, defensively, as you well know. 

I don't WANT him to make more money, but it's silly to see what he got for THIS deal, see that he has IMPROVED since then, and that shooting is even MORE valuable now, and conclude that he's on his way to a big pay cut. I put the over/under at $18 mil, and I wouldn't be shocked at 3/$60 mil. Anything less than that is a good deal, imo.

His last deal was a paid for potential - bribe him away as a RFA - deal. In NY he didn't live up to his contract.
You could argue he has or was even better in Dallas.

I think he will get about the same or more.

I'd bet on about 70-80 Mio /4 years with a player option.

[ItsGoTime]

I don't WANT him to make more money, but it's silly to see what he got for THIS deal, see that he has IMPROVED since then, and that shooting is even MORE valuable now, and conclude that he's on his way to a big pay cut.

When he got this deal he was a young player about to enter his prime playing well for Atl. He's not young anymore which makes teams overpay. He's basically one of the best bench players because he's a specialist in what he can do. 

I'm not arguing what he will get in offers for his services (there's always players that get more than they should...Gallinari comes to mind), I'm arguing that it's a bad idea to match that bad decision. However, he is a great end of game hugger, so I guess I can be wrong.

[Aussiebballer]

I don’t think the Mavs can afford to have $60-70 mil of the cap used by 2 big guys, if they signed Colins and kept KP.
If they keep KP they need to invest in a star guard to play with Luka.
Unfortunately I can’t see a star guard free agent available and the Mavs trade assets are pretty low.
So maybe they would plan to sign Collins and then trade KP for a guard.

[ItsGoTime]

I think Hardaway is a little underrated, defensively, as you well know. 

http://gph.is/1O8QClh