2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[StepBackJay]

Some were suggesting that the Mavs (if JR opts out and have $34M in space) could sign RH for ~$14M and still have ~$20M to work with. I was just going with that for simplicity.

I think $15M is a good number for guessing RH's value (though I would consider up to $20M I think). 

But there are so many moving parts to what the Mavs might do as well. For one, if I get RH I would try to trade DP and retain WCS. And those kind of scenarios just domino effect change everything about how you build the rest of the roster.

I agree 15M is a good benchmark. Wood got 13/yr. I think 20M would be an overpay. I always look at comps: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/cap-hit/center/. In my view Wood is still the best comp even tho he is classified as a PF. I wouldn't go over 15 unless Powell is moved in which case you could overpay a little bit.

If we plug in 15M then 20M should still get you a good player. The issue is that they top guys (most of them older) are more like 25/yr. The starting caliber guys could go anywhere from like 12-18. 20M is enough to outbid other suitors for the 2nd starter you want to get but you don't want to overpay either.

I do like the prospect of potentially upgrading 2 starting positions with that 34M.

If you assume Luka, DFS, KP are slotted for starting positions then you can spend 15/19, 14/20, 16/18 on two starters. You could also front-load salaries and have them decline to make future salaries look better.

For that rMLE spot you might try to get another shooter off the bench.

[StepBackJay]

Wouldn't the bigger snag actually be that the Kings can only offer up to about 12M in a SnT instead of Holmes getting offered more in the open market?

Ya he is going to get more than 12M. I think that is the absolute floor and more likely he is getting 13-15.

[StepBackJay]

I like Devonte Graham if he is a legit good defender but I haven't watched him enough.

I have some interest if you got Dinwiddie, Dragic on team-friendly contracts + Holmes.

[Chicagojk]

I am still on the Holmes/Derozan offseason.   Lets get back to an elite offense with a little better '19 on defense.    Hopefully there is enough $.

Question, Can Holmes play next to KP 20 minutes a night?  If so, I wonder if Maxi could be moved?  I really like Maxi as a heavy minute bench player with his shooting and his defense.   So I don't think the Mavs would be very interested in moving him.   Although if Holmes can play next to KP, would bringing back Melli at a backup PF (12-15 minutes) while upgrading your wing be a interesting direction?  Maxi would be easier to move than Powell, I think.

[dirkfansince1998]

If I have to choose between Holmes in the 12-20m range and Theis in the 5-10m range that´s an easy decision for me.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I've been on the Holmes train for a while.  I took notice last season when one of the announcers spoke fairly strongly about how much the Mav's like him.  I've also been consistently in favor of two bigs (5-Out should be a gadget lineup).  This is usually the point where someone says "Dallas won't invest another $15mm on another big".  Someone else usually says "dump Powell".  The beauty of what you are proposing is when everyone is healthy, we get 48 minutes of Holmes/Powell and 48 minutes of KP/Maxi.  We can also pretty easily absorb a day off with three of the four and a cheap fifth big.  It isn't ideal to have $18mm tied up in backups, but that is where we find ourselves.

Holmes is a good perimeter defender, so it isn't like you are putting Gasol or some other statue out there next to KP.  538 rates Holmes as most similar to 2019 Powell and 2015 B. Wright. 

The question then becomes how do you replace THJ, JRich and Redick with $19mm and the rMLE?   The need for minutes at SF are reduced with DFS getting all of his time there.  I suspect our rookies will play a role and the exception can get you a veteran bench 3/2 guy.  What it comes down to is can you get a good enough two-way starter with the cap space not used on Holmes.  If you can't, can you live with a lesser Holmes if it lands you a better starting guard?

The only MAJOR problem I have with investing so much in 4 bigs is the playmaking load on Luka.  I think Luka needs more help with the roster the way it is now.  Subtract THJ and Jrich and add a SG.  In a 7 game playoff series, I'm ok with it.  Luka gets the ball every single time like Lebron.  Over a long 82 game season, I fear turning him into James Harden.  Highest usage rate in the league over six months.  Worn out by the playoffs.

[Hooper21]

I like a lot of the names being floated.  Graham has come a long way for the Hornets, but they may keep him and move Rozier now that Ball has shown what he's capable of.  
Dinwiddie would be a good fit, provided he comes back from the ACL injury.  
Dragic is older than ideal, but that fits Carlisle and he's got the Luka connection.  
Since Covington is making $12M a year, that would be a good comp for Holmes, but Covington might be underpaid.
I would really like it if we got a bull at the 4/5 to go toe-to-toe with the Embiids, Randalls, Drummonds, and Cousins of the league.  Had hoped James Johnson was the guy, but didn't pan out that way.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I think the two goals should be a rim-running center and a secondary playmaker. Holmes is the only obvious, available free agent fit for the first. I'm more than willing to part with KP if it means we can get a good playmaking guard along the lines of Brogdon, Sexton, etc.

Yep

I think you have to turn around and flip KP for a playmaker if you want to invest close to $30 million a year on Holmes and Powell.

In a vacuum, I get that we can replace THJ and JRich with an $18 million dollar Norman Powell.  But Powell makes THJ and Jrich look like Magic Johnson.  Career average of 1.4 assists a game.  Powell and DFS offer 0 playmaking.  

Honestly, if I wasn't a Mavs fan, I would say this team is already not that fun to watch.  It's the Luka show like the Harden Rockets.  I would like to get a secondary guy that can do things with the ball like they did with Chris Paul.  Also I hope that Luka is more concerned with winning than putting up Harden or Westbrook numbers.  Lebron could average 35/10/10 isntead of 27/7/7 but he's learned that the playoffs are what it's about.  

[Mapka]

I think you are overvaluing THJ and JR by quite a lot. I think replacing them (especially JR) should be quite easy with $20M in space IMO.

I also think you are undervaluing how much of an upgrade RH is and how much the Mavs frontcourt needs an infusion of pick and roll offense and good defense.

I think you are overvaluing the talent of RH. He was bouncing around like Wood, and there are reasons, one being this kind of player is kinda easy attainable with the MLE or via trade.

And you are undervaluing, what it will cost to get the needed upgrade for our 1/2 spot.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I think you are overvaluing the talent of RH. He was bouncing around like Wood, and there are reasons, one being this kind of player is kinda easy attainable with the MLE or via trade.

And you are undervaluing, what it will cost to get the needed upgrade for our 1/2 spot.

Do you agree that we need to improve our pick and roll game offensively with a hard rim runner who can also play high level front court defense?  If so do you have some names that you think would fit in the MLE or via trade?  I'm all for other options it just feels like he jumps off the page as the best player that fits that mold and is available.  Also, I think your Christian Wood comparison is kind of what people are hoping for...a big man who has obviously figured it out going into his prime who gets put in a situation to showcase that fact.

[Kammrath]

his kind of player is kinda easy attainable with the MLE or via trade.

Please share other viable options that meet these two criteria:

1) ELITE pick and roll man (at least 70th percentile, 1.20 PPP....RH is 86th percentile, 1.35 PPP). NOTE: Only Adebayo and Jarrett Allen are better than RH this year with high pick and roll usage.

2) A switchable big man who can move his feet effectively on the perimeter.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Question about the rMLE, can it be combined with remaining capspace?  Like at max space if we're at 34M and used 30 to go and sign like Holmes/Dimwiddie would that mean we would only have the 4 to sign another contributor or could we also start dipping into the 4 to 5 the rMLE gives us as well?  Like bring back Dougie McBuckets for the 7 or 8 he's currently getting paid using the remaining 4 and part of the rMLE?

I would assume that's against cap rules though.

[Mapka]

Do you agree that we need to improve our pick and roll game offensively with a hard rim runner who can also play high level front court defense?  If so do you have some names that you think would fit in the MLE or via trade?  I'm all for other options it just feels like he jumps off the page as the best player that fits that mold and is available.  Also, I think your Christian Wood comparison is kind of what people are hoping for...a big man who has obviously figured it out going into his prime who gets put in a situation to showcase that fact.

I didn't watch enough of Holmes to really say he is the best available or not. But the Guys on the SacTown board see him as a very good pick&roll/D energy player, but not much more.

We need that. But we need playmaking/ballhandling/production more.

If we get that, we will get by with adding someone like Theis, Baynes, Birch, Portis, Len maybe even WCS again, if he learns how to catch a pass.

Please share other viable options that meet these two criteria:

1) ELITE pick and roll man (at least 70th percentile, 1.20 PPP....RH is 86th percentile, 1.35 PPP). NOTE: Only Adebayo and Jarrett Allen are better than RH this year with high pick and roll usage.

2) A switchable big man who can move his feet effectively on the perimeter.

Birch, Powell fit that, WCS is at 69,5%.

[F Gump]

Wouldn't the bigger snag actually be that the Kings can only offer up to about 12M in a SnT instead of Holmes getting offered more in the open market?

You make a good point. The Kings salary limitations on any contract for Holmes are definitely there, if they don't do some payroll juggling. 

If they don't clear out more cap room, they'd only have about 10.5M to sign Holmes using the EB exception. And their guaranteed contracts plus their high 2021 draft pick leaves less than the MLE in cap room, which means they will be working over the cap (unless they do some major wheeling-and-dealing to clear more space).

But if they did do something to clear out more room for a Holmes deal, it would presumably be for a sign-and-keep deal, not sign-and-trade.

That does enhance the opportunity for Holmes to sign elsewhere, of course. But you've made a good point - the Mavs (or anyone else) would apparently have to use cap room to sign him, assuming they want to offer more than 10.5M.

[omahen]

Please share other viable options that meet these two criteria:

1) ELITE pick and roll man (at least 70th percentile, 1.20 PPP....RH is 86th percentile, 1.35 PPP). NOTE: Only Adebayo and Jarrett Allen are better than RH this year with high pick and roll usage.

2) A switchable big man who can move his feet effectively on the perimeter.

Khem Birch would be way cheaper and fits the description. Young energy center is Hartenstein.

[dynamicalVoid]

Please share other viable options that meet these two criteria:

1) ELITE pick and roll man (at least 70th percentile, 1.20 PPP....RH is 86th percentile, 1.35 PPP). NOTE: Only Adebayo and Jarrett Allen are better than RH this year with high pick and roll usage.

2) A switchable big man who can move his feet effectively on the perimeter.

It does seem like Holmes checks off two areas this board wants improvement in from a front court standpoint...Rim Roller and quick enough to switch on defense.   And he isnt 25M like Collins.   Collins might be a better scorer from 3 and around the rim though.

What are your thoughts on Theis for a lot less money than Holmes?   Can he rim roll?   He seems decent quick with his feet...can he switch effectively?   Few times Ive watched Theis he seems better than the guys we have all around(not including KP).  Maybe Powell's IQ and not missing assignments is super valuable and WCS's length and quickness make him better on defense than Theis.   Theis doesnt seem like a slouch when I watch him....doesnt seem to fumble the ball often like WCS or Powell.  Seems to be able to score around the basket.  Hes paid 5M for a reason though I guess.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Birch is an intriguing option for sure.

[omahen]

What are your thoughts on Theis for a lot less money than Holmes?   Can he rim roll?   He seems decent quick with his feet...can he switch effectively?   Few times Ive watched Theis he seems better than the guys we have all around(not including KP).  Maybe Powell's IQ and not missing assignments is super valuable and WCS's length and quickness make him better on defense than Theis.   Theis doesnt seem like a slouch when I watch him....doesnt seem to fumble the ball often like WCS or Powell.  Seems to be able to score around the basket.  Hes paid 5M for a reason though I guess.

Theis sets a killer screen. Really hard for defense to get around. He is a relentless fighter, very positive for the team. Limited offensively and undersized for a center is what keeps his price down. Chicago will probably try hard to retain him.

[F Gump]

If the Mavs can move Powell with no salary coming back (or use him as outgoing in getting a SNT player), and keep WCS, they can split about 43.3M in salary on 3 players.

So for example, they could add Holmes for 13M, one high-dollar scoring guard for 29.5M, and the 3rd a minimum salary guy. In essence, you've swapped Powell for Holmes, and J-Rich/THJ for a much better player (presumably) and a worse one. There are lots of ways to split that, of course.

There would still be the room MLE left (about 5M) plus minimums.

[Kammrath]

Khem Birch

Birch has only had 22 pick and roll possessions with TOR for 84.1 percentile. With ORL earlier this year he had 46 possessions and was 44.1 percentile. 

In 19-20 he had 48 possessions and was 47.0 percentile.


For perspective RH has had 211 possessions this year (4th in the whole NBA).

So yes, Birch would certainly be a lot cheaper (and is older and is worse) but I would not sign him thinking you could rely on him as a starting pick and roll partner for Luka. 

So I do not think he is a viable option that is a near equivalent to RH.