2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[Mavs03]

I've spoken ad nauseum about how Dallas should go after John Collins.  However, he's a restricted free agent.  Richuan Holmes is an unrestricted free agent who would command less than Collins.  I think Holmes is a better defender than Collins.  Assuming J-Rich opts out (which who knows at this point...he may very well opt-in), could we sign Holmes and Norman Powell (who is also an unrestricted free agent)?  Portland is in salary cap hell.  If they end up in a play-in tournament, lose and not make the playoffs, will Portland simply blow it up?  Will they just let Powell go and not resign him?  If we get Holmes and Powell, how would you like this roster?

Luka
Powell
DFS
Holmes
KP

Brunson
Burke
Green
Kleber
Powell

Bey, Terry and Hinton rounding out the bench.  Still have the rMLE to sign another player.  The bench would be a little weak in my view...so if we could trade Powell and draft capital for Holmes...we could possibly resign THJ to strengthen our bench.  No question...it's a big offseason for Dallas.

[Kammrath]

I think you could bench J Rich the rest of the season and not really notice. THJ comes and goes but is replaceable.

100% here with you on this. 

I think THJ brings some intangibles that might be hard to replace, but I think the Mavs could replace and improve his shooting with McDermott for instance. I think JR is honestly replaceable with Josh Green.

[Kammrath]

Norman Powell

He is another player that I think is an easy and quick upgrade to THJ/JR.

[mvossman]

Of course I have to say something  

I have a really hard time accepting the fact that 18 mm tied up in reserves is acceptable and a sign of a successful summer. If you sign Holmes for 14 mil, it leaves you 20 mil. Not enough for top guard options CP3, Lowry, Conley, DeRozan, Ball). Is everything else like Graham, Powell, Fournier or Schroeder really that much better than THJ/JRich combo? Let me compare two offseason scenarios - "run it back" and "Holmes". 

With run it back you basically keep whole team and add full MLE and BaE. Let's say Reddick and Melli are gone to free roster spots. You can also say goodbye to Bobi or keep Bey on two way contract. I guess a bench MLE shooter and bench PF/C would be biggest missing links. Final line-up:

Luka, Brunson, Terry
JRich, THJ, Burke
DFS, MLE, Green
KP, Maxi, Bey
Powell, WCS, BaE

In the Holmes scenario you operate under the cap. Let's say you sign Holmes and Graham, which is a popular choice. For that you are losing THJ, JRich and WCS in addition to Reddick and Melli (and Boban). You have rMLE and BaE to fill the holes. Line-up would be:

Luka, Brunson, Terry
Graham, Burke
DFS, Green, rMLE
KP, Maxi, Bey
Holmes, Powell, WCS (let's say you bring him for exception money)

Can someone say with certainty that lineup in the Holmes scenario is any better than lineup in the run it back? Better at C but almost certainly worse on guard/wing spot. Offseason like this would be very dissapointing for me. 

This leads us to moving Powell. Assets attached, of course, I am not delusional someone will offer value for him alone. We can use him in a SnT move for Holmes, which would leave us cap space for top end guard. We can dump him and create enough cap space for Holmes and top guard this way. Or we can trade him for a wing behind DFS/Graham.

If I have to guess, I think Mavs will go after top end guy first, either one of the guards or Collins. Holmes doesn't fit unless a trade/dump is made.

That second lineup is significantly better than the first, especially the starters.  You just added two legit starters (something this team desperately needs) who also happen to be young while addressing your biggest needs (additional playmaking and physical defense in the frontcourt) all for taking a depth hit in the backcourt.  The thing is, this is the last time we can improve in free agency, and the following year we can easily address the depth issue with the MLE.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I think you are overvaluing THJ and JR by quite a lot. I think replacing them (especially JR) should be quite easy with $20M in space IMO.

I also think you are undervaluing how much of an upgrade RH is and how much the Mavs frontcourt needs an infusion of pick and roll offense and good defense.

Are you saying we'd have 20M after signing Holmes in this scenario?

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Side note, it was good to see the kids get some burn last night but I do hope that watching those kids run around like chickens with their heads cut off will quiet the "RICK NEEDS TO PLAY THE ROOKIES" crowd a bit.  It's going to take some time for all of them.  I love the potential that Tyler Bey has but man he was bad on defense last night, constantly ball watching and getting stuck behind screens.

[Kammrath]

Are you saying we'd have 20M after signing Holmes in this scenario?

Some were suggesting that the Mavs (if JR opts out and have $34M in space) could sign RH for ~$14M and still have ~$20M to work with. I was just going with that for simplicity.

I think $15M is a good number for guessing RH's value (though I would consider up to $20M I think). 

But there are so many moving parts to what the Mavs might do as well. For one, if I get RH I would try to trade DP and retain WCS. And those kind of scenarios just domino effect change everything about how you build the rest of the roster.

[KillerLeft]

Side note, it was good to see the kids get some burn last night but I do hope that watching those kids run around like chickens with their heads cut off will quiet the "RICK NEEDS TO PLAY THE ROOKIES" crowd a bit.  It's going to take some time for all of them.  I love the potential that Tyler Bey has but man he was bad on defense last night, constantly ball watching and getting stuck behind screens.

[Kammrath]

I love the potential that Tyler Bey has but man he was bad on defense last night, constantly ball watching and getting stuck behind screens.

He is adjusting to not being a ball-watching, help side defense big man, to being a wing who has to stay glued to his man. I believe in him and think when the "wing" light bulb goes on for him he will be a solid rotation player if not a starter one day. But the dude was asked to play the 5 at Colorado, so this is a whole world change for him.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Some were suggesting that the Mavs (if JR opts out and have $34M in space) could sign RH for ~$14M and still have ~$20M to work with. I was just going with that for simplicity.

I think $15M is a good number for guessing RH's value (though I would consider up to $20M I think). 

But there are so many moving parts to what the Mavs might do as well. For one, if I get RH I would try to trade DP and retain WCS. And those kind of scenarios just domino effect change everything about how you build the rest of the roster.

Gotcha, so the 34M comes from renouncing all bird rights as well as WCS team option then.  That would make sense.

[KillerLeft]

But the dude was asked to play the 5 at Colorado, so this is a whole world change for him.

I still think Carlisle looks at him and thinks "Dwight Powell replacement." 

I think he could be be a 3, someday, but it would take a whiiiiile. No reason he can't develop enough as a small ball big (something every team needs these days) in the meantime to carve some minutes out for himself.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

He is adjusting to not being a ball-watching, help side defense big man, to being a wing who has to stay glued to his man. I believe in him and think when the "wing" light bulb goes on for him he will be a solid rotation player if not a starter one day. But the dude was asked to play the 5 at Colorado, so this is a whole world change for him.

Oh I believe in him too, it's just clear he's not ready yet.  Seeing him hit a three for me was honestly very promising because I'm more worried about that aspect of him transforming into a wing than the defense.  I live up here in Boulder so got to see a lot of him in college and I agree, it's night and day compared to his role at CU so he's going to have to adjust but he has the tools physically.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I still think Carlisle looks at him and thinks "Dwight Powell replacement." 

I think he could be be a 3, someday, but it would take a whiiiiile. No reason he can't develop enough as a small ball big (something every team needs these days) in the meantime to carve some minutes out for himself.

Potentially, but he's teetering on the edge of being too small to play the 5 at all at this level.  I think it's wing or bust for him so it will take more time but he has the potential to basically guard 1-4 and certain 5s if he can figure it out so I'm rooting for him.  Totally agree it will take a lot of time for him to adjust to it but I think that's really his only option for a long career.  I see him in Frisco all next year, he needs a ton of minutes since the concepts are all brand new.

[michaeltex]

Potentially, but he's teetering on the edge of being too small to play the 5 at all at this level.  I think it's wing or bust for him so it will take more time but he has the potential to basically guard 1-4 and certain 5s if he can figure it out so I'm rooting for him.  Totally agree it will take a lot of time for him to adjust to it but I think that's really his only option for a long career.  I see him in Frisco all next year, he needs a ton of minutes since the concepts are all brand new.

Also, offseason training goals and summer league (potentially) to help the learning process.

[KillerLeft]

Potentially, but he's teetering on the edge of being too small to play the 5 at all at this level.

Well, I think he could play the 5 in extreme situations, but I mostly meant the 4, which, as others have said, is his most natural position. 

I agree that 6'6" isn't ideal there, either, but smaller guys have succeeded. I have an easier time envisioning him using foot speed and vertical spacing to his advantage at the 4 than I do imagining that he develops the handles and pull-up game of a 3 in this system. I'm not betting against the latter, but I think it's a fairly long term project, which is why he was a second rounder. 

In the relatively short-term, I think he could play the 4 better than DFS, for example.

EDIT: Defensively, Bey at the 4 allows you to do some good things with switching, because he's going to be able to guard 3's sooner than he'll be able to play the 3. Can you imagine Bey and DFS as the forwards with a good defensive 5??? Heart-eyes-emoji, tbh.

[Chicagojk]

Oh I believe in him too, it's just clear he's not ready yet.  Seeing him hit a three for me was honestly very promising because I'm more worried about that aspect of him transforming into a wing than the defense.  I live up here in Boulder so got to see a lot of him in college and I agree, it's night and day compared to his role at CU so he's going to have to adjust but he has the tools physically.

That is a fair take.   He is a little older for your normal rookie though at 23 years of age.  For me, his future depends on being able to defend on the perimeter and fill in the edges on offense as a guy who makes things happen without having plays run for him.

As a guy who watched Bey in college, do you think he can be a very good perimeter defender in time?   He was billed as a very good defender in college, but Sam Veccine of the Athletic prior to the draft was very low on Bey and thought his PAC 12 defensive player of the year award was a poor choice.   I want to see much more of these rookies but with limited chances to see him, I do worry about how he is going to defend wings.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Well, I think he could play the 5 in extreme situations, but I mostly meant the 4, which, as others have said, is his most natural position. 

I agree that 6'6" isn't ideal there, either, but smaller guys have succeeded. I have an easier time envisioning him using foot speed and vertical spacing to his advantage at the 4 than I do imagining that he develops the handles and pull-up game of a 3 in this system. I'm not betting against the latter, but I think it's a fairly long term project, which is why he was a second rounder. 

In the relatively short-term, I think he could play the 4 better than DFS, for example.

EDIT: Defensively, Bey at the 4 allows you to do some good things with switching, because he's going to be able to guard 3's sooner than he'll be able to play the 3. Can you imagine Bey and DFS as the forwards with a good defensive 5??? Heart-eyes-emoji, tbh.

I agree with every word here.  I really wanted Bey at 31 this year so definitely had a quick moment of being bummed until we traded for him and got excited again.  I've always felt what DFS needs next to him is simply a slightly bigger version of himself so that we can throw someone a little more athletic than Maxi at Kawhi or Lebron in a playoff series.  He's obviously not there yet but he has that Shawn Marion build that we desperately need.  

Everything I just wrote is also why I was pretty high on Aaron Gordon fitting here perfectly as well.  It's also why in the extreme hypothetical where we end up with a high draft pick I'm slowly becoming obsessed with Jonathan Kuminga fitting in here, he would also be a project but less so than Bey.

[F Gump]

In the Holmes scenario you operate under the cap. Let's say you sign Holmes and Graham, which is a popular choice. For that you are losing THJ, JRich and WCS in addition to Reddick and Melli (and Boban).

.......

This leads us to moving Powell. .... We can use him in a SnT move for Holmes, which would leave us cap space for top end guard.

The most efficient move is to persuade Holmes to sign, and then persuade Kings to do a SNT using Powell.

That not only helps the payroll, it also leaves the door open for:
a - operating OVER the cap,
b - keeping WCS on his very cost-efficient deal, and
c - being able to sign both J-Rich/THJ or alternately to use one or both of them as outgoing SNT assets to land someone else.

That's a lot of superior negotiating to do, but none of it is beyond the realm of top NBA front offices.

The biggest snag is that those moves require the Mavs to exhibit superior expertise at negotiating and at NBA cap craftsmanship. Unfortunately Cuban and his group have never been very slick at any of that, when it gets to anything beyond money-whipping an agent.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

That is a fair take.   He is a little older for your normal rookie though at 23 years of age.  For me, his future depends on being able to defend on the perimeter and fill in the edges on offense as a guy who makes things happen without having plays run for him.

As a guy who watched Bey in college, do you think he can be a very good perimeter defender in time?   He was billed as a very good defender in college, but Sam Veccine of the Athletic prior to the draft was very low on Bey and thought his PAC 12 defensive player of the year award was a poor choice.   I want to see much more of these rookies but with limited chances to see him, I do worry about how he is going to defend wings.

I absolutely think he can and I don't think defensive player of the year was that poor of a choice (although the choice of Mobley this year was much more obvious).  Kammarth made a really good point about the ball watching and how last year as a center he was always making plays from the help side which requires a small amount of ball watching where as now he needs to understand his responsibilities a little better.  He has a knack for making plays though, has all of the physical tools and takes defense very seriously so I feel like he can put it together, he just really really needs the reps which are very hard to come by in this weird season.  G League and as someone else mentioned, summer league and training camp, I think will do him wonders.  The ball watching last night can certainly be written off as a maturity thing but the getting lost behind screens was slightly concerning if I'm being honest, I trust he has the work ethic to get to where he needs to be though.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

The most efficient move is to persuade Holmes to sign, and then persuade Kings to do a SNT using Powell.

That not only helps the payroll, it also leaves the door open for:
a - operating OVER the cap,
b - keeping WCS on his very cost-efficient deal, and
c - being able to sign both J-Rich/THJ or alternately to use one or both of them as outgoing SNT assets to land someone else.

That's a lot of superior negotiating to do, but none of it is beyond the realm of top NBA front offices.

The biggest snag is that those moves require the Mavs to exhibit superior expertise at negotiating and at NBA cap craftsmanship. Unfortunately Cuban and his group have never been very slick at any of that, when it gets to anything beyond money-whipping an agent.

Wouldn't the bigger snag actually be that the Kings can only offer up to about 12M in a SnT instead of Holmes getting offered more in the open market?