2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[KillerLeft]

That´s why message boards have fallen behind social media. They should have implemented a keyword-based ignore function rather than a user-based. That way I could just put all content on ignore that has the words Powell + D-Raptor, Net rating, advanced, DRPM, RPM, percentile in it.

Instead, you quoted it, giving people a second chance to read it. Curious.

[SleepingHero]

Remember like 20 pages back I mentioned Andrew Wiggins as a way for the Mavs to get a 3rd scorer and potentially assets just for taking on his contract? (No KP was not involved in the trade)

Yeah forget about that idea. A momentary lapse in judgement. I will continue to think Wiggins is the Stephon Marbury of this generation without the attitude issues.

[Branduil]

Bet Golden State wishes they could get KP next year.

[Mavs2021]

Instead, you quoted it, giving people a second chance to read it. Curious.

I give that comeback a -2. Maybe wait till the 2021/2022 schedule comes out and circle the Lakers dates. Dwight Powell is back baby.

[DanSchwartzgan]

On that note (as this discussion has kind of lead me into the Maxi workload concern) I don't think we want Powell playing more than 20 minutes a game either.  Combine that with KP playing roughly 30 minutes a game and likely missing a lot of games, there is a strong argument that we could use another rotational big, and possibly a starter.  This ties back into the recent conversations on this thread regarding Holmes.  I'm liking that idea more and more as I think about it, especially if we can get him in the 12 range (I'm expecting him to be at least 15).

I've been on the Holmes train for a while.  I took notice last season when one of the announcers spoke fairly strongly about how much the Mav's like him.  I've also been consistently in favor of two bigs (5-Out should be a gadget lineup).  This is usually the point where someone says "Dallas won't invest another $15mm on another big".  Someone else usually says "dump Powell".  The beauty of what you are proposing is when everyone is healthy, we get 48 minutes of Holmes/Powell and 48 minutes of KP/Maxi.  We can also pretty easily absorb a day off with three of the four and a cheap fifth big.  It isn't ideal to have $18mm tied up in backups, but that is where we find ourselves.

Holmes is a good perimeter defender, so it isn't like you are putting Gasol or some other statue out there next to KP.  538 rates Holmes as most similar to 2019 Powell and 2015 B. Wright. 

The question then becomes how do you replace THJ, JRich and Redick with $19mm and the rMLE?   The need for minutes at SF are reduced with DFS getting all of his time there.  I suspect our rookies will play a role and the exception can get you a veteran bench 3/2 guy.  What it comes down to is can you get a good enough two-way starter with the cap space not used on Holmes.  If you can't, can you live with a lesser Holmes if it lands you a better starting guard?

[DanSchwartzgan]

Figure out a way to way to sign both THT/Holmes, talk to Toronto about a trade with the principles being Siakim and KP.  If the Mavs want defense, that seems like a plausible path forward.

I hear the phone ringing.  It is Toronto calling us...  Siakam 2 for 16 last night.  His 3% is just abysmal this season.  Trading for him requires you to rework your entire front court.  Someone like Holmes wouldn't work unless you are absolutely sure Siakam will get back to his normal self (which is just average from outside anyway).  

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=FGA&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022000930&PlayerID=1627783&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612761&flag=3&sct=plot§ion=game

[DanSchwartzgan]

It actually might be a little easier than that. (This is all based on memory but I’m fairly confident it’s right) Sacramento only had early bird rights on him, so they can only pay him up to a certain annual number (I believe it’s around 12-13mil). Because they don’t have cap space, they have no way to pay him more unless they can create cap room to sign him.

Good catch.  105% of the average salary unless they have cap room.  To get cap room greater than the EB amount they would have to move on from James, Silva, Guy, Harkless, Terence Davis and Metu.  They invested a 2nd in Davis and James was their second rounder (40th) in 2019.  Otherwise, those guys don't play much and the team hasn't invested much in them (other than the outgoing Bjelica for Harkless/Silva). 

Still, wiping out all of them only gets Sacramento $11mm in space.  If this goes much over the MLE, then the competition is someone like Charlotte more than Sacramento.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

IMHO, there are 2 obvious fits next to Luka and these are Adebayo and Holmes.

If the Mavs can conjure up a trade involving KP and Bam, I'd be all over that. But since that's not going to happen, I'd be extremely happy with Holmes. If the Mavs land Holmes and retain KP, I expect a Luka-Holmes show every night,  similar to Nash and Amare.

But in this scenario, I expect a disgruntled KP close to asking for a trade by the ASB. 

Now if KP, decides to be a good team player and accepts Robin duties with Holmes, while also taking 29M with paid leaves, that would mean, at least a trip to the WCF year in and year out.

But of course, they still need to get a decent secondary playmaker.

[Kammrath]

I expect a Luka-Holmes show every night,  similar to Nash and Amare.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If you are the Kings with no cap room and only the MLE to replace Holmes...would you rather lose him for nothing or take back two years of Powell?

Edit:  Sorry, stupid question.  If they are limited in what they can sign him for, they are limited in what they can S&T him for.

[Kammrath]

If you are the Kings with no cap room and only the MLE to replace Holmes...would you rather lose him for nothing or take back two years of Powell?

I think I take back DP because what SAC needs more than anything else is an infusion of culture change.

[omahen]

 It isn't ideal to have $18mm tied up in backups, but that is where we find ourselves.

Of course I have to say something  

I have a really hard time accepting the fact that 18 mm tied up in reserves is acceptable and a sign of a successful summer. If you sign Holmes for 14 mil, it leaves you 20 mil. Not enough for top guard options CP3, Lowry, Conley, DeRozan, Ball). Is everything else like Graham, Powell, Fournier or Schroeder really that much better than THJ/JRich combo? Let me compare two offseason scenarios - "run it back" and "Holmes". 

With run it back you basically keep whole team and add full MLE and BaE. Let's say Reddick and Melli are gone to free roster spots. You can also say goodbye to Bobi or keep Bey on two way contract. I guess a bench MLE shooter and bench PF/C would be biggest missing links. Final line-up:

Luka, Brunson, Terry
JRich, THJ, Burke
DFS, MLE, Green
KP, Maxi, Bey
Powell, WCS, BaE

In the Holmes scenario you operate under the cap. Let's say you sign Holmes and Graham, which is a popular choice. For that you are losing THJ, JRich and WCS in addition to Reddick and Melli (and Boban). You have rMLE and BaE to fill the holes. Line-up would be:

Luka, Brunson, Terry
Graham, Burke
DFS, Green, rMLE
KP, Maxi, Bey
Holmes, Powell, WCS (let's say you bring him for exception money)

Can someone say with certainty that lineup in the Holmes scenario is any better than lineup in the run it back? Better at C but almost certainly worse on guard/wing spot. Offseason like this would be very dissapointing for me. 

This leads us to moving Powell. Assets attached, of course, I am not delusional someone will offer value for him alone. We can use him in a SnT move for Holmes, which would leave us cap space for top end guard. We can dump him and create enough cap space for Holmes and top guard this way. Or we can trade him for a wing behind DFS/Graham.

If I have to guess, I think Mavs will go after top end guy first, either one of the guards or Collins. Holmes doesn't fit unless a trade/dump is made.

[Branduil]

I think the two goals should be a rim-running center and a secondary playmaker. Holmes is the only obvious, available free agent fit for the first. I'm more than willing to part with KP if it means we can get a good playmaking guard along the lines of Brogdon, Sexton, etc.

[omahen]

If you are the Kings with no cap room and only the MLE to replace Holmes...would you rather lose him for nothing or take back two years of Powell?

I would only take two years of Powell if draft assets are attached. No way Powell contract has at least neutral value on the market. Even if they lose Holmes they have MLE to fill the hole.

And let's not forget - Sacramento has Bagley first. Unless they decide to move on, it would actually make sense for them to start him as was the plan all along before Bagley was continously injured and Holmes surprised everyone and not look for another starting center. If they decide to move on from Bagley, they have to trade him and might be he still has enough value to bring in a decent piece.

[StepBackJay]

It actually might be a little easier than that. (This is all based on memory but I’m fairly confident it’s right) Sacramento only had early bird rights on him, so they can only pay him up to a certain annual number (I believe it’s around 12-13mil). Because they don’t have cap space, they have no way to pay him more unless they can create cap room to sign him.

I think Sacramento could move some money around to free up space. The other thing is what if they trade Buddy Hield? He makes a good amount of money, so maybe they find a trade for him and then have more cash to sign Holmes if that's the direction they want to go in. The challenge for them is that I imagine its hard for them to keep or sign UFA's if they aren't the highest bidder by a good margin.

[StepBackJay]

If you are the Kings with no cap room and only the MLE to replace Holmes...would you rather lose him for nothing or take back two years of Powell?

Edit:  Sorry, stupid question.  If they are limited in what they can sign him for, they are limited in what they can S&T him for.

I mean it's interesting. We need Powell to show better tho. I think Powell looks better on the court than he does in the box score. He is not really filling up the stat sheet so you would need a team like Sacramento to appreciate the things he does do well.

[Kammrath]

almost certainly worse on guard/wing spot

I think you are overvaluing THJ and JR by quite a lot. I think replacing them (especially JR) should be quite easy with $20M in space IMO.

I also think you are undervaluing how much of an upgrade RH is and how much the Mavs frontcourt needs an infusion of pick and roll offense and good defense.

[KillerLeft]

...and how much the Mavs frontcourt needs an infusion of pick and roll offense and good defense.

Agreed. Out of all the team’s needs, and there are quite a few, this is the most dire, imho.

[StepBackJay]

Can someone say with certainty that lineup in the Holmes scenario is any better than lineup in the run it back? Better at C but almost certainly worse on guard/wing spot. Offseason like this would be very dissapointing for me. 

I would take my chances that any new players we get to replace THJ and J Rich will be an upgrade. Sure Collins would be great but there are other combos that would still be better than what we have now. THJ and J Rich are zeros to me. I think you could bench J Rich the rest of the season and not really notice. THJ comes and goes but is replaceable.

So ya Holmes+ would be a big upgrade to me. I think a Holmes/Graham summer is possible. Even if Mavs end up needing to piece together tradable value contracts I can live with that. Running back THJ/J Rich and company would be the worst of all outcomes and I can't imagine Mavs would do that.

[StepBackJay]

And let's not forget - Sacramento has Bagley first. Unless they decide to move on, it would actually make sense for them to start him as was the plan all along before Bagley was continously injured and Holmes surprised everyone and not look for another starting center. If they decide to move on from Bagley, they have to trade him and might be he still has enough value to bring in a decent piece.

At the TDL there was basically zero interest for Bagley. Not sure they would have interest in Powell but maybe they could take Powell plus a 2nd or two and hope that Bagley eventually gets it together.