2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[Kammrath]

you have either Holmes or Powell on the floor at all times so that we always have a hard rim runner on the court.

Yeah, that makes a ton of sense.

[michaeltex]

I see Powell as a sunk cost. If the MBT decides Holmes is the guy, they should go get him regardless of the DP situation. I'd love to see them find a similar player for much less if possible, but I won't hold my breathe that they pull it off.

I agree with your position on the economics. Go ahead and get Holmes. You can keep DP or trade DP later depending on team needs. 


While DAL needs SG consistency, bringing in Holmes and allowing KP to work outside in as a PF could lessen the dependence on having a SG score big every night.

As I understand, RH is unrestricted? So it's just a matter of $$'s and convincing him he'd be loved and treasured in DAL?

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I agree with your position on the economics. Go ahead and get Holmes. You can keep DP or trade DP later depending on team needs. 


While DAL needs SG consistency, bringing in Holmes and allowing KP to work outside in as a PF could lessen the dependence on having a SG score big every night.

As I understand, RH is unrestricted? So it's just a matter of $$'s and convincing him he'd be loved and treasured in DAL?

He's unrestricted and the kings only have early bird rights so it does seem like he'll leave for the right price.

I don't see trading DP as a realistic option honestly unless it's just a straight dump.  I'd rather see what we can do with him here until 2023 deadline when he becomes a more valuable asset as an expiring contract.

I can see a scenario where KP/Holmes frontcourt works together similar to the way DP/KP work together where Holmes is essentially playing the 4 spot on defense but that kind of takes away of what he can be as a defensive anchor.

The biggest issue with building around KP (at least for me) is that you can really only place him in that defensive anchor role or he'll get pretty exposed out on the perimeter.  The problem with that is that he's proven over the past two years that he has a lot of inefficiencies playing that role in our system.  He's still a good help side rim protector but I feel like we have enough of a sample size to see that he just isn't mobile enough to handle his drop coverage responsibilities in the pick and roll. I look at Holmes as more of a KP replacement in a world where KP gets moved for backcourt/wing help somehow (Wiggins/Pick?).  I feel strongly that you need a top 10 defense to win a championship in this league (the nets may become an exception to that rule but we'll see...) and also feel strongly that we'll always be an average to below average defensive team with KP as our anchor.  Building a top 10 offense with Luka should not be that much of a struggle so I feel like if you have the opportunity to really turn the defense around you should do so.

Having said that, if we just dump Powell and sign Holmes to play alongside KP I would easily talk myself into being excited about the potential results.

[Kammrath]

He's unrestricted and the kings only have early bird rights so it does seem like he'll leave for the right price.

I don't see trading DP as a realistic option honestly unless it's just a straight dump.  I'd rather see what we can do with him here until 2023 deadline when he becomes a more valuable asset as an expiring contract.

I can see a scenario where KP/Holmes frontcourt works together similar to the way DP/KP work together where Holmes is essentially playing the 4 spot on defense but that kind of takes away of what he can be as a defensive anchor.

The biggest issue with building around KP (at least for me) is that you can really only place him in that defensive anchor role or he'll get pretty exposed out on the perimeter.  The problem with that is that he's proven over the past two years that he has a lot of inefficiencies playing that role in our system.  He's still a good help side rim protector but I feel like we have enough of a sample size to see that he just isn't mobile enough to handle his drop coverage responsibilities in the pick and roll. I look at Holmes as more of a KP replacement in a world where KP gets moved for backcourt/wing help somehow (Wiggins/Pick?).  I feel strongly that you need a top 10 defense to win a championship in this league (the nets may become an exception to that rule but we'll see...) and also feel strongly that we'll always be an average to below average defensive team with KP as our anchor.  Building a top 10 offense with Luka should not be that much of a struggle so I feel like if you have the opportunity to really turn the defense around you should do so.

Having said that, if we just dump Powell and sign Holmes to play alongside KP I would easily talk myself into being excited about the potential results.

GREAT post.

[mvossman]

He's unrestricted and the kings only have early bird rights so it does seem like he'll leave for the right price.

I don't see trading DP as a realistic option honestly unless it's just a straight dump.  I'd rather see what we can do with him here until 2023 deadline when he becomes a more valuable asset as an expiring contract.

I can see a scenario where KP/Holmes frontcourt works together similar to the way DP/KP work together where Holmes is essentially playing the 4 spot on defense but that kind of takes away of what he can be as a defensive anchor.

The biggest issue with building around KP (at least for me) is that you can really only place him in that defensive anchor role or he'll get pretty exposed out on the perimeter.  The problem with that is that he's proven over the past two years that he has a lot of inefficiencies playing that role in our system.  He's still a good help side rim protector but I feel like we have enough of a sample size to see that he just isn't mobile enough to handle his drop coverage responsibilities in the pick and roll. I look at Holmes as more of a KP replacement in a world where KP gets moved for backcourt/wing help somehow (Wiggins/Pick?).  I feel strongly that you need a top 10 defense to win a championship in this league (the nets may become an exception to that rule but we'll see...) and also feel strongly that we'll always be an average to below average defensive team with KP as our anchor.  Building a top 10 offense with Luka should not be that much of a struggle so I feel like if you have the opportunity to really turn the defense around you should do so.

Having said that, if we just dump Powell and sign Holmes to play alongside KP I would easily talk myself into being excited about the potential results.

I agree on the likelihood of dumping Powell.  Not just because he currently has negative value, but also because they love him.  I suppose it is possible.  They did dump Barnes (and wasted his cap space) and they loved him, so there is some precedent, but I think right now it will take more than a second and I don't see them doing that.

Also agree that we need to have a top 10 defense to be a legit contender and have questions regarding KP being able to anchor that.  I had hopes that adding Maxi and JRich to the starting lineup would get us to that level, but other than a stretch after the all-star break the results have been disappointing.  If he can't be that anchor and we have to turn him into a poor defensive 4 then we need to move on from him.  Wiggins and a pick would be a disappointing return (rather the pick than Wiseman) but I would probably pull that trigger if we have to.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

I agree on the likelihood of dumping Powell.  Not just because he currently has negative value, but also because they love him.  I suppose it is possible.  They did dump Barnes (and wasted his cap space) and they loved him, so there is some precedent, but I think right now it will take more than a second and I don't see them doing that.

Also agree that we need to have a top 10 defense to be a legit contender and have questions regarding KP being able to anchor that.  I had hopes that adding Maxi and JRich to the starting lineup would get us to that level, but other than a stretch after the all-star break the results have been disappointing.  If he can't be that anchor and we have to turn him into a poor defensive 4 then we need to move on from him.  Wiggins and a pick would be a disappointing return (rather the pick than Wiseman) but I would probably pull that trigger if we have to.

I've gotten to the point now where I've talked myself into Wiggins/pick being the best return we can get.  Not sure if I'm just trying to brace myself for it because there did seem to be some legitimate smoke around those rumors or if I actually believe what I'm telling myself at this point but one thing I do believe in that scenario is that Wiggins (at least this year) is exactly what we were hoping Richardson to be.  Sometimes we act like Wiggins is just a terrible contract player but he's a dude averaging 18 a game, shooting 38% from deep playing next to a ball dominate guard while also guarding one of the best players on the other team night in and night out, isn't that exactly what we were hoping for with Richardson?

The one thing that's been on my mind recently is the fact that we don't have a single two way player on that roster, you trade for Wiggins and sign Holmes and you already have two.  If in this hypothetical where you also magically get the 4th or 5th pick (which I actually think would require us to give up a future first) then you could probably draft Kuminga and potentially have 3.

[StepBackJay]

Sign me up for Holmes after watching that.  Two way center that we could really use right now.

Interesting that everyone thinks we would need to move Powell to make the money work, I see it more as a "if KP is moved this is the new guy" sort of signing and you have either Holmes or Powell on the floor at all times so that we always have a hard rim runner on the court.

Ya I think its more likely that Holmes would happen in a KP-less situation, which I don't predict happening this offseason.

Signing Holmes, while keeping both KP and Powell is possible on paper but also unlikely to me. That's a lot of money to spend on the frontcourt. I imagine Holmes can get something like the Wood contract we saw last year that was 3/41.

My opinion is that Mavs will prioritize playmaking/scoring guards/wings over shoring up the "big" rotation. They might look at Holmes but I think it would be too late. Some team like Charlotte will make Holmes their number 1 priority and get him inked probably pretty quickly.

If you paid Holmes say 13 out of 35 mil cap space you still have a good chunk of money for an impact player or 2 pretty good 10 mil dollar pieces. I wouldn't be against the approach at all, it would be a hedge against KP in case he needs to get moved. If KP is unhappy then you can move him (for perhaps a backcourt player) and still have a good big rotation with Holmes and Maxi.

Just knowing MBT and how they operate they will go a different direction.

[mvossman]

I've gotten to the point now where I've talked myself into Wiggins/pick being the best return we can get.  Not sure if I'm just trying to brace myself for it because there did seem to be some legitimate smoke around those rumors or if I actually believe what I'm telling myself at this point but one thing I do believe in that scenario is that Wiggins (at least this year) is exactly what we were hoping Richardson to be.  Sometimes we act like Wiggins is just a terrible contract player but he's a dude averaging 18 a game, shooting 38% from deep playing next to a ball dominate guard while also guarding one of the best players on the other team night in and night out, isn't that exactly what we were hoping for with Richardson?

The one thing that's been on my mind recently is the fact that we don't have a single two way player on that roster, you trade for Wiggins and sign Holmes and you already have two.  If in this hypothetical where you also magically get the 4th or 5th pick (which I actually think would require us to give up a future first) then you could probably draft Kuminga and potentially have 3.

I could live with a Wiggins/Pick trade.  I would lose my shit if it was Wiggins/Wiseman trade.

A lot of us (and likely the FO) talked ourselves into what JRich could be here basically based on one year at Miami.  I don't want to make the same mistake with Wiggins based on one year at GS.

If we do trade for the pick, knowing this FO, it is much more likely we will trade it for an established player than actually use it in the draft.

[StepBackJay]

I've gotten to the point now where I've talked myself into Wiggins/pick being the best return we can get.  Not sure if I'm just trying to brace myself for it because there did seem to be some legitimate smoke around those rumors or if I actually believe what I'm telling myself at this point but one thing I do believe in that scenario is that Wiggins (at least this year) is exactly what we were hoping Richardson to be.  Sometimes we act like Wiggins is just a terrible contract player but he's a dude averaging 18 a game, shooting 38% from deep playing next to a ball dominate guard while also guarding one of the best players on the other team night in and night out, isn't that exactly what we were hoping for with Richardson?

The one thing that's been on my mind recently is the fact that we don't have a single two way player on that roster, you trade for Wiggins and sign Holmes and you already have two.  If in this hypothetical where you also magically get the 4th or 5th pick (which I actually think would require us to give up a future first) then you could probably draft Kuminga and potentially have 3.

I don't know that I agree that Wiggins/pick is the best the Mavs could get for KP. KP is having a very good year, I think on this board we overrate the injury management games off KP is taking off which is happening elsewhere in the league. 

I don't believe KP has missed that many games this season due to actual injury vs injury management. He and Doncic don't have a lot of chemistry yet but I also don't think it's a situation where the Mavs have to move him for the best deal they can get.

Maybe there is some stuff going on behind the scenes and if there are, especially locker room stuff, and if so then he will get moved.

The other piece is whether or not Mavericks believe they need to make a philosophical shift in terms of roster construction. Does KP make sense in a league that increasingly requires bigs to cover the perimeter? If they do decide his skillset doesn't match what they need then maybe he will get moved.

The final thing to raise is that a move with GSW entirely depends on whether or not they do get Minney's 2021 pick and whether or not the Mavs value that player. If Mavs see a star then maybe they think ya lets draft a guard of the future, plug in Wiggins for scoring and still have cap space to get a guy like Holmes who fits what they want to do in their frontcourt.

[cow]

Figure out a way to way to sign both THT/Holmes, talk to Toronto about a trade with the principles being Siakim and KP.  If the Mavs want defense, that seems like a plausible path forward.

[StepBackJay]

I could live with a Wiggins/Pick trade.  I would lose my shit if it was Wiggins/Wiseman trade.

A lot of us (and likely the FO) talked ourselves into what JRich could be here basically based on one year at Miami.  I don't want to make the same mistake with Wiggins based on one year at GS.

If we do trade for the pick, knowing this FO, it is much more likely we will trade it for an established player than actually use it in the draft.

I know ppl on this board really hate Wiggins. I have not watched him much, especially the GSW version of Wiggins. Has anyone watched a ton of GSW games the last year and a half that can give their perspective watching him play? I know his stats look good.

In a KP swap like this Wiggins would not be the prize, he would be a top 7 rotation player. It would really depend on that Minney pick and whether or not Mavs view that player as a star with a higher ceiling than KP.

[mvossman]

Ya I think its more likely that Holmes would happen in a KP-less situation, which I don't predict happening this offseason.

Signing Holmes, while keeping both KP and Powell is possible on paper but also unlikely to me. That's a lot of money to spend on the frontcourt. I imagine Holmes can get something like the Wood contract we saw last year that was 3/41.

My opinion is that Mavs will prioritize playmaking/scoring guards/wings over shoring up the "big" rotation. They might look at Holmes but I think it would be too late. Some team like Charlotte will make Holmes their number 1 priority and get him inked probably pretty quickly.

If you paid Holmes say 13 out of 35 mil cap space you still have a good chunk of money for an impact player or 2 pretty good 10 mil dollar pieces. I wouldn't be against the approach at all, it would be a hedge against KP in case he needs to get moved. If KP is unhappy then you can move him (for perhaps a backcourt player) and still have a good big rotation with Holmes and Maxi.

Just knowing MBT and how they operate they will go a different direction.

If we can get Holmes at anywhere near that contract we have to pull the trigger.  It would be overspending on the frontcourt and this team is in desperate need of upgrading the SG, but he would be such a good fit with Luka, and you would still have plenty of cap left to upgrade the SG.  If you don't trade KP or DP this offseason, you can trade one (or both) the following off season when you are over the cap.

[StepBackJay]

If we can get Holmes at anywhere near that contract we have to pull the trigger.  It would be overspending on the frontcourt and this team is in desperate need of upgrading the SG, but he would be such a good fit with Luka, and you would still have plenty of cap left to upgrade the SG.  If you don't trade KP or DP this offseason, you can trade one (or both) the following off season when you are over the cap.

I can be talked into that idea considering that Mavs have ample cap space for 2 impact players even with Powell's money on the books. I am not in the camp that believes THT will be a Mavs target but Mavs could still get at least one more starter in addition to Holmes for that cap space.

Mavs top 9 would look something like:

Luka
FA playmaker / Brunson
DFS / FA shooter
Holmes / Powell
KP / Maxi

[mvossman]

Figure out a way to way to sign both THT/Holmes, talk to Toronto about a trade with the principles being Siakim and KP.  If the Mavs want defense, that seems like a plausible path forward.

That's three guys that can't hit a three.  The defense would be stout but the spacing would be rough.

[dynamicalVoid]

I know ppl on this board really hate Wiggins. I have not watched him much, especially the GSW version of Wiggins. Has anyone watched a ton of GSW games the last year and a half that can give their perspective watching him play? I know his stats look good.

In a KP swap like this Wiggins would not be the prize, he would be a top 7 rotation player. It would really depend on that Minney pick and whether or not Mavs view that player as a star with a higher ceiling than KP.

I have watched numerous GSW games this year.   Wiggins is disruptive on defense, imo.   But I am not a scout.  I go by eye test.   He might have really bad habits.   But his defense jumps of the screen when he plays.  Maybe its only because of his length and when he tries hard on plays but is bad other plays.

People claim he is the same offensive player he has always been.   Puts up 18ppg but it doesnt equate to winning basketball.  Thats what I hear all the time on RealGM.

Just by eye test...Wiggins long arms disrupt a lot of shots.   RealGM crowd seems to think Wiggins is doing really well this year on both ends of the floor.   The contract sours that a little.

Anyway...I dont know if Wiggins has figure something out or something has clicked(or just a good team setting for him)...but he seems to be a positive in a lot of peoples eye this year.  If he can defend and is hitting 3's at a good clip(he is doing that this year)....seems like a very good fit for Luka if it was sustainable.

I would like to see what Wiggins does in a competitive playoff series.

[mvossman]

I can be talked into that idea considering that Mavs have ample cap space for 2 impact players even with Powell's money on the books. I am not in the camp that believes THT will be a Mavs target but Mavs could still get at least one more starter in addition to Holmes for that cap space.

Mavs top 9 would look something like:

Luka
FA playmaker / Brunson
DFS / FA shooter
Holmes / Powell
KP / Maxi

Yep.  Make that FA playmaker a two way player, and you now have a really good defense.  Conley is probably too expensive, but you might be able squeeze in Lowry, or maybe Ball, Schroder or Graham.  Feel like that team would be a big upgrade from what we have now (and unless it's Lowry you just upgraded with two young starters).

It's a shame we did not get Bey or Bane (or both) in the draft.  I would have felt comfortable penciling either (or both) of those guys into the rotation next year (or even this year).  Still not sure why we went for three projects in a shortened Covid year when trying to make the playoffs with a coach who has limited patience for projects.

[StepBackJay]

Yep.  Make that FA playmaker a two way player, and you now have a really good defense.  Conley is probably too expensive, but you might be able squeeze in Lowry, or maybe Ball, Schroder or Graham.  Feel like that team would be a big upgrade from what we have now (and unless it's Lowry you just upgraded with two young starters).

I feel like Lowry is going to Miami, Ball will go to NY or maybe Charlotte to play with his brother? Schroder could go to NY or stay in LA. I don't see Mavs interested in Schroder.

I like Graham as an idea. I also like Goran Dragic as an idea. Dragic is a good fit and won't cost a lot (I think 10 mil?). He is going to miss a good number of games so you will have to do some injury management stuff with him.

In my view you could do Holmes at like 13, Dragic 10, Graham 10 (give or take).

Top 9 guys would be:
Luka/Dragic
Graham/Brunson
DFS
Holmes/Powell
KP/Maxi

[F Gump]

In my view you could do Holmes at like 13, Dragic 10, Graham 10 (give or take).

If that was as easy as simply snapping your fingers and doing it, that would be great, with one disclaimer below.

But if you did this list, I'd much rather keep Powell than WCS, because of the relative salary cost. WCS is paid about what a backup center should make, and Powell is paid way more. Values are about the same - neither should be a starter. The extra money to spend would also be quite useful elsewhere, particularly in paying for cost over-runs that I think would result from the list and prices you have.

One disclaimer-  I would much prefer "3rd star" be the acquisition, over 3 "helpful role players," if that was an available alternative.

[cow]

One disclaimer-  I would much prefer "3rd star" be the acquisition, over 3 "helpful role players," if that was an available alternative.

I wise man once said, "If that was as easy as simply snapping your fingers and doing it, that would be great."

[loki]

Top 9 guys would be:
Luka/Dragic
Graham/Brunson
DFS
Holmes/Powell
KP/Maxi

This is where I'm at right now with a 2/3 subbed in for Dragic. I think Graham will cost more than 10, but he and Holmes still fit pretty easily even if you start them at around 14 on 4/60 deals.