2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[F Gump]

One thing is that I believe the Nets have limited ways of improving their roster as they are already over the hard cap so....

No.

There is no hard cap imposed, no matter what your payroll, unless you create one for yourself by your choices. And a hard cap in one year doesn't carry over to the next year. So at this point, no team is "over the hard cap" for 2021-22.

Oh, and this flowed into a pitch for Dinwiddie - who would be an AWFUL fit for the Mavs. He is J-Rich with a better handle, but no 3-point shot and horrendous defense. Or maybe that means he's a broke man's Derozan, with a good mid-range game and the lack of a 3 and no defense, but not nearly as good, not nearly the scorer, and who brings injury concerns. Please no. That solves nothing.

[StepBackJay]

No.

There is no hard cap imposed, no matter what your payroll, unless you create one for yourself by your choices. And a hard cap in one year doesn't carry over to the next year. So at this point, no team is "over the hard cap" for 2021-22.

Right so I don't mean they are right this second over the hard cap. What I mean is if they use an exception then their salary is over the hard cap. I didn't say it well. Bottom line is I don't think they would do anything to trigger a hard cap with their salary levels this high.

[ThisIStheYear]

Haliburton is just destroying the Mavs. It’s so frustrating to go around the league and see the promising rookies. We don’t have any I’m afraid to say.

[RedFlag41]

How much money do you think it would take to pry Richaun Holmes from the Sacramento Kings?

[SleepingHero]

How much money do you think it would take to pry Richaun Holmes from the Sacramento Kings?

12-15 mil a year at the very least.


Expensive for a guy of his playstyle. He is exactly what the Mavs need. At this point I don't really care if it's an overpay if he brings the energy and hustle this team desperately needs.

I'd be fine even going as high as 17mm.

[SleepingHero]

Haliburton is just destroying the Mavs. It’s so frustrating to go around the league and see the promising rookies. We don’t have any I’m afraid to say.

I liked what I saw from Green against the Kings. First time he got any significant burn and he performed well being a pest defensively. 

He's completely MIA on the offensive side. I don't know whether that's a conscious choice by the coaching staff having him be no more than a ball mover, or if it's actually Green being completely unable to perform there, but he definitely needs to find A move on the offensive end. 

Is he a Haliburton? No. But a DFS type? Sure. Not glamorous or a homerun but I can actually see Green being a productive Mav if he ever gets the chance.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I think it was more like one stat was provided with less than 500 minutes of sample (~20 games)  

It was probably too much to expect people would connect the assertion made in this thread with a similar one made the day before in the "Let's be Real" thread that contained more data.  That post contained the methodologies that rate Powell more highly as a defender including:

D-Lebron
D-Raptor
LA-DRAPM
D-LeBron Box
Box Plus Minus
On Court Defensive Points Allowed 
On Court Defensive EFG% Allowed. 
D Rating

This wasn't on the original list, but BBall Index tracks nine values in a category they call Perimeter Defensive Activity (like Deflections Per Possession).  Powell ranks higher in 8 of them. 

I mean literally the only thing that supports Maxi as the better defender this year (besides the eye tests of some people on some other board) is DRPM.

[Branduil]

I know people have talked about McCollum here before, but what about the younger version? The Cavaliers could soon face the dilemma of being Portland-East in that they have two undersized guards who, while very talented, are probably not the best long-term fit if you want to contend. From reading RealGM it seems most Cavs fans think Garland is the one to keep.  I don't think the Mavs themselves have anything Cleveland wants for Sexton, but if we can combine it with the proposed GS trade:

https://tradenba.com/trades/MttM09H2Z

Golden State gets two guys who will likely fit much better on their team, kind of a poor man's KD and Iggy. Cleveland gets two very young assets+Wiggins, so they get back the guy they traded for Love all those years ago.

And of course the Mavs get a young playmaking guard who could fit in very well with Luka. They also get some veteran presence with Love, who while certainly not in his prime any more, is probably better on a playoff team than his play this year shows. Also, the Mavs would still have cap room to go after someone like Holmes.

[Mavs2021]

12-15 mil a year at the very least.


Expensive for a guy of his playstyle. He is exactly what the Mavs need. At this point I don't really care if it's an overpay if he brings the energy and hustle this team desperately needs.

I'd be fine even going as high as 17mm.

We can´t pay 10M+ for his talents, when we have Powell and Porzingis on the roster.

Furthermore I can´t stress enough that you need to find these guys before they become expensive. And they are available every year. 

Washington just acquired Daniel Gafford for virtually nothing. That´s the kind of move the Mavs never make. Him and WCJ had ridiculous positive NetRtgs on the Bulls, while the other bigs had all been a net negative. The Mavs should have been all over him. 70% from the field for his career, over a BPG in just 13 minutes. That he has come good for Washington is the least surprising thing ever.

Mo Bamba. Now 12.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG, shooting 50/44/75 in just 13 MPG over the last eight games.

If you struggle with defensive concepts, there is no substitute for health and playing time. Given that everybody says he´s a smart kid, he´ll figure it out.

[omahen]

I know people have talked about McCollum here before, but what about the younger version?

I liked the idea. I think Mavs should get more, though. 

Washington just acquired Daniel Gafford for virtually nothing.

Yeah, I mentioned Gafford several times. No idea why Chicago didn't play him, as he was always good when I saw him. Great energy guy, definitely Holmes light on a rookie contract.

[Razzmatazz_Hopskidillydoo]

Richaun Holmes should be the Mavs main target.

* Big who can play at both ends.
* Has the toughness and physicality neither KP or DP has
* Not a third star, but would look like one with Luka
* Mobile big, can fit next to KP

But if the Mavs decide to trade KP, Richaun becomes a MUST.

Would love a SNT for Collins: A Collins-Holmes big combo will be tough to handle.
Would like a trade involving Detroit: Grant+Maxi+Holmes or DFS+Grant+Holmes or Grant+Holmes+WCS would let you have 3 bigs with defense

[StepBackJay]

Richaun Holmes should be the Mavs main target.

* Big who can play at both ends.
* Has the toughness and physicality neither KP or DP has
* Not a third star, but would look like one with Luka
* Mobile big, can fit next to KP

But if the Mavs decide to trade KP, Richaun becomes a MUST.

Would love a SNT for Collins: A Collins-Holmes big combo will be tough to handle.
Would like a trade involving Detroit: Grant+Maxi+Holmes or DFS+Grant+Holmes or Grant+Holmes+WCS would let you have 3 bigs with defense

Definitely like Holmes but you would have to move Powell somewhere to make the money make sense. I don't think you can pay Holmes starter money and have Powell there making 10 mil/yr, only playing 15 mpg.

[Kammrath]

I don't think you can pay Holmes starter money and have Powell there making 10 mil/yr, only playing 15 mpg.

I would be interested trying to do a sign and trade of RH for DP and see what else the Mavs might need to add to make that work for SAC. I think DP would be REALLY good for their culture.

[StepBackJay]

12-15 mil a year at the very least.


Expensive for a guy of his playstyle. He is exactly what the Mavs need. At this point I don't really care if it's an overpay if he brings the energy and hustle this team desperately needs.

I'd be fine even going as high as 17mm.

I think the 12-15 range sounds about right and there are several teams that need a starting center. Prying him away shouldn't be too hard given that the Kings are a garbage franchise. For the Mavs they would need to find a taker for Powell to make the math make sense.

[StepBackJay]

I would be interested trying to do a sign and trade of RH for DP and see what else the Mavs might need to add to make that work for SAC. I think DP would be REALLY good for their culture.

Ya that's not a bad idea. Hopefully DP finishes the year strong. I think last night was not ideal for him. His best fit on the court is next to KP imo. Him and Maxi work well against bench units but having to play against guys like Holmes is a challenge.

[StepBackJay]

I was against the RH idea when it was clear Rick wanted to play 5 out but since we have seen him go back to the 2 bigs system (ie Powell, KP) it would make sense to have a guy like RH who could be an upgrade in Powell's spot. Powell I think is still good and better than he showed last night but he definitely has limitations as a player.

[Kammrath]

Powell I think is still good and better than he showed last night but he definitely has limitations as a player.

Yeah I think DP is going to work his way back into consistency. I think so far that has been the biggest issue in recovering from his injury.

I personally am fine with them rolling with DP next year if they are going to USE him in the pick and roll with Luka, but I prefer upgrading him to RH because I think RH really is that much of an upgrade.

[loki]

I see Powell as a sunk cost. If the MBT decides Holmes is the guy, they should go get him regardless of the DP situation. I'd love to see them find a similar player for much less if possible, but I won't hold my breathe that they pull it off.

The Mavs would still have cap space left over to upgrade JRich/THJ and the room MLE to improve the bench. They wouldn't even be in the luxury tax after those signings.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Sign me up for Holmes after watching that.  Two way center that we could really use right now.

Interesting that everyone thinks we would need to move Powell to make the money work, I see it more as a "if KP is moved this is the new guy" sort of signing and you have either Holmes or Powell on the floor at all times so that we always have a hard rim runner on the court.

[mvossman]

It was probably too much to expect people would connect the assertion made in this thread with a similar one made the day before in the "Let's be Real" thread that contained more data.  That post contained the methodologies that rate Powell more highly as a defender including:

D-Lebron
D-Raptor
LA-DRAPM
D-LeBron Box
Box Plus Minus
On Court Defensive Points Allowed 
On Court Defensive EFG% Allowed. 
D Rating

This wasn't on the original list, but BBall Index tracks nine values in a category they call Perimeter Defensive Activity (like Deflections Per Possession).  Powell ranks higher in 8 of them. 

I mean literally the only thing that supports Maxi as the better defender this year (besides the eye tests of some people on some other board) is DRPM.

I did not see your prior post, but the main point of my argument is that because defense is so hard to capture in a stat, you need a very large sample size.  I would not expect a defensive stat to do a very good job in the relatively small sample that we have this year (that's why I went over 3 years).

I mean lets look at some of the context of this year.  Powell started the first 9 games and was terrible, both offensively and defensively.  He clearly was not ready to play anywhere near his prior level.  Yet the defensive rating of the team looked good.  Why is that?  Likely because opponent 3 percentage was abnormally low (another stat that needs a big sample to be of any value).  Then he played sparingly vs bench units as he tried to get back to his old self, only recently starting to get decent minutes.  He is still averaging less than 15 a game.

Maxi, has not looked the same since Covid.  Not sure if this is going to be a problem for the rest of the season.  He seemed to recover after the all star break but has really struggled the last several games he has played in (don't know if that is injury related).

The point is this is not really a good season to evaluate these guys as they have both been dealing with unique circumstances.  The question is who is the better defender in general, and for that I think it would be more useful to look at a multi year sample.

Also, not all stats are the same.  Some are more useful than others.  I'm a particular fan of RPM because it takes about as much context in account as you can.  There are others that I found useful, not as an overall stat, but something to contribute (like Raptor or the stat someone posted earlier showing the quality of offensive opponent).  I would be curious to see some of those stats over the last couple of years instead of just this year.