2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[omahen]

Lakers...once the tax implications are considered

Just to add. Lakers are the last to care about tax. They are in prime position to contend for a couple of titles. It doesn't matter if tax bill will be 100 mil or 200 mil. Who knows when will be next time they will be so close to making it. One would expect a steep drop off in results once LeBron falls of the cliff or retires.

[dirkfansince1998]

Have the Mavs ever tried to sign a Klutch Sports guy?

Remember the Nerlens Noel /Rich Paul saga. Turned down a 4/70 extension. Cuban and Rich Paul exchanged some not so nice messages on twitter.

[StepBackJay]

Remember the Nerlens Noel /Rich Paul saga. Turned down a 4/70 extension. Cuban and Rich Paul exchanged some not so nice messages on twitter.

I thought Happy Walters was his agent back then.

[SamStetz]

I thought Happy Walters was his agent back then.

I believe Walters was his agent when 4/70 was offered, when Noel declined the offer was rescinded and then Walters was fired and Paul was hired. 

I don’t remember the Twitter convo between Cuban and Paul?

[dirkfansince1998]

I thought Happy Walters was his agent back then.

He fired Happy Walters, rejected the 4/70 deal, switched to Rich Paul and tried to get a max deal. Fired Rich Paul in 2019. Made less than 12m since he turned down the Mavs offer.

[dirkfansince1998]

I believe Walters was his agent when 4/70 was offered, when Noel declined the offer was rescinded and then Walters was fired and Paul was hired. 

I don’t remember the Twitter convo between Cuban and Paul?

Was wrong. Twitter beef was Happy Walters vs some Rich Paul guys. Cuban was just a witness. Confirmed the 4/70 offer. Mavs just stopped doing business with Rich Paul.

[omahen]

Mavs just stopped doing business with Rich Paul.

But why would there be beef? That is not good for business. Paul was trying to do what he thought is best for his client. Made a mistake and client was the one paying for it. It's not like Mavs can reach a deal with every player/agent.

[Jason Terry]

I think it’s important to note that this isn’t some typical Cuban beef. Many of the top agents out there don’t like the shady dealings of Rich Paul, Klutch and Lebron. They’re essentially free to do whatever they want with zero accountability from the NBA. This was all magnified when Lebron joined forces with the former top agent Rob Pelinka led golden goose LAL organization. Many of the other top agents have spoken out mostly anonymously for obvious reasons. 

Still, we can’t just write off all Klutch clients. We must do business with them when it makes sense. Much like how Pop did a super early extension with Dejounte Murray. We should just accept that we won’t be at the front of the line for any of their clients

Just means guys like Duffy and Bartlestein will be more willing to do us favors. So long as we are good with guys like that we’ll be fine. Excel and CAA are the real big time agencies anyways and we’ve always had a great relationship with Schwartz.

[soog]

Just to add. Lakers are the last to care about tax. They are in prime position to contend for a couple of titles. It doesn't matter if tax bill will be 100 mil or 200 mil. Who knows when will be next time they will be so close to making it. One would expect a steep drop off in results once LeBron falls of the cliff or retires.

Ok, people keep saying this, so I think it’s worth analyzing a bit.

Does luxury tax matter for teams during the championship window?

Remember that the reason owners have the money to own a team is that many of them were successful in business first.  You don’t find success in business by making dumb business decisions.  And let’s remember what players and teams say over and over, this is a business.

So now let’s talk about the Lakers specifically, they have approximately $122M committed to 7 players next year.  This includes Harrell, and for simplicity sake let’s assume he picks up his option.  They don’t have any point guards among these seven players. So let’s assume they retain Schroeder for $15M and Caruso for $5M.  Let’s also assume they let fill out 4 of the 5 remaining spots with min contracts worth $1.5M.  That’s $148M, $12M over the luxury tax line for next year.

Now let’s look at THT.  Say the Mavs offer him a $15M contract.  If the Lakers want to retain him that would take their team salary to $163M.

The total cost of THT’s contract for the Lakers (including luxury tax implications ) would be $51M PER YEAR. (If you up the contract to $18M per year this implies a cost of $63.75M per year for the Lakers)

now let’s say they hypothetically let him walk and sign a ring seeking vet with 7 years of service to fill his role for the vet min of $2.2M.  This contract would have a total cost (including luxury tax) of $8M per year.

This means that an owner has to make the business decision to spend an extra $43M per year for THT over this vet to come off the bench.  Let’s assume the window stays open for 4 years.  That’s $132M MORE for THT over a vet min during that time.  This is simple economics, is the marginal benefit of THT over a ring seeking vet greater than $43M/year (and $132M total)?

People on here are concerned about paying him $20M/year with no current tax implications....

I’ll agree that owners are willing to pay luxury tax during their championship window.  I’ll even give you that they will pay well over $100M, but I would say owners will only pay luxury tax for the right players.

I think we need to reframe the way we talk about contracts.  When discussing what to offer THT and whether we think the Lakers match, instead of asking “is he worth $15M/yr” we need to ask 3 separate questions:

1) Is he worth $15M/y to the Mavs? 
2) Is he worth $51M/y to the Lakers?
3) Would the Lakers rather let him walk and fill his bench roll with a ring-seeking-vet for $8M/y ($2.2M/y before taxes), saving them $43M/yr ?

[dirkfansince1998]

But why would there be beef? That is not good for business. Paul was trying to do what he thought is best for his client. Made a mistake and client was the one paying for it. It's not like Mavs can reach a deal with every player/agent.

Noel barely played for the Mavs. Had a questionable mid season surgery. Paul and Noel obviously weren´t happy that he had to play for the qualifying offer. RC wasn´t happy with Noel´s effort. Famous quote from a ringer article: Minutes have to be earned,” RC said. “If it’s between him and Salah, Salah has earned the minutes. There’s no doghouse here. It’s pretty simple. You compete, and if you earn minutes, you get minutes. And you’ve got to compete to keep them, because it’s a competitive situation.”
I think most uf still remember his highlight of the season. The hot dog incident. Perfect summary of his effort and willingness to make it work.
Not getting a bigger contract from Dallas basically ended the relationship. Noel played with zero effort. Mavs had no interest to develop a player that would leave anyway. A lot of posters at the time believed that his anti-drug violation at the end of the season was on purpose because he did not want to play the last 5 games.

[omahen]

2) Is he worth $51M/y to the Lakers?

It is not just about him. It is about ability to bring a 15+ mil player to the team. As Lakers are now, you have LeBron, Davis, Schroeder, KCP, Harrell and Kuzma as solid rotation players. Vet min guys are vet min for a reason. Look what guys like Matthews, Gasol, Dudley are giving them. Even Caruso and Morris are very limited. A capable rotation guy would mean gold for them. That's why I am confident they would match a 15 mil offer for THT. But of course, a cost controlled guy like Richardson (assuming he opts in) who is arguably better NOW, would mean a lot for them. 

Sure, they can be cheap. But Brooklyn payroll for next year is 164 mil on 8 guys (counting Dinwiddie), Golden state is at 164 mil, Clippers at 146 mil for 10 players and several other teams (Philly, Portland, Utah) at the tax line with far from complete rosters. Do you really think Lakers can afford to be cheap? I don't believe for a second they will jeopardize last couple of LeBron years, no matter the cost. Don't forget, if they let THT walk for nothing, they basically don't have an avenue to improve the team.

[soog]

It is not just about him. It is about ability to bring a 15+ mil player to the team. As Lakers are now, you have LeBron, Davis, Schroeder, KCP, Harrell and Kuzma as solid rotation players. Vet min guys are vet min for a reason. Look what guys like Matthews, Gasol, Dudley are giving them. Even Caruso and Morris are very limited. A capable rotation guy would mean gold for them. That's why I am confident they would match a 15 mil offer for THT. But of course, a cost controlled guy like Richardson (assuming he opts in) who is arguably better NOW, would mean a lot for them. 

Sure, they can be cheap. But Brooklyn payroll for next year is 164 mil on 8 guys (counting Dinwiddie), Golden state is at 164 mil, Clippers at 146 mil for 10 players and several other teams (Philly, Portland, Utah) at the tax line with far from complete rosters. Do you really think Lakers can afford to be cheap? I don't believe for a second they will jeopardize last couple of LeBron years, no matter the cost. Don't forget, if they let THT walk for nothing, they basically don't have an avenue to improve the team.

Wanting to save $48M to sign a vet ring chaser is cheap?  You still have to justify that THT is worth it.  At this point he is just potential.

And if your argument that the Lakers would be unable to add talent were true, how did the Nets just add Aldridge and Griffin?

[omahen]

And if your argument that the Lakers would be unable to add talent were true, how did the Nets just add Aldridge and Griffin?

Well, Nets added them, not Lakers. Lakers got Drummond. Betting on a buyout market might not be a very safe strategy.

Wanting to save $48M to sign a vet ring chaser is cheap?

Please tell me which vet ring chasers they got. I listed them to you. Matthews, Dudley, Morris, Gasol. And they are not getting much from any of them. Why am I just repeating myself. Last year it were Rondo, Howard and JaVale. Your min salary vet chasers are mostly fantasy. 

You still have to justify that THT is worth it.

He is a 15 mil contract they can trade. Without him they don't have a 15 mil contract to trade. And if you guys assume there are teams wiling to offer 15 mil to THT this also means there are teams willing to trade for THT. Just one example - one would imagine Houston would gladly trade Gordon to LAL for THT. So Lakers get a guy who is far better than vet min vet chasers. There is absolutely no way Lakers can trade for a guy like Gordon, unless they give up one from their core rotation.

SnT is best option for Lakers, unless they believe THT is able to produce NOW. If not SnT, keeping him still beats letting him walk for nothing, imho. Some here certainly think he is able to produce now, so I don't know why it would be so terrible for Lakers to keep him.

[mvossman]

Even though I hate him (defense/shot selection makes me go nuts), I have to aknowledge he's a good bench piece and a secure option in case of injuries (I just don't like this big love he gets here). I was actually thinking in giving THJ's minutes to JB (30) /Green (10) and 20mpg to this MLE guy, say like a McDermott (IND).

The THJ hate sounds two years ago.  Since then he has gotten more reasonable with his shot selection and improved his defense to where it is not terrible.  I'm not sure what metric you look at, but the ones I look at say his offense is more positive than his defense negative and he is one of the better contributors on the team.  

All that being said, I do like McDermott as a cheaper option of there is good reason to go that way.

[mvossman]

Let´s talk about the capspace approach. We already mentioned the max or near max options but with limited capspace around the league the Mavs could also try to play the market. Go for MLE, rE or BAE guys and use the capspace to outbid teams that can only offer the exceptions. Basically the 2019 summer without the Kemba, PatBev, and Danny Green drama. Just go for the mid tier (good role players) guys on day one of free agency. Obviously requires good talent and fit evaluation (more Seth Curry, less Delon Wright).

The trade off is THJ+JRich+Melli+MLE vs 34 mil.  Can you get more value out of 34 mil than those 4 slots.  I think that will be tough to do.  Free agency is not known for its bargains.  If you look at that free agency two years ago, how many Seth Curry value contracts were signed?  Most of them turned out closer to Delon Wright value.  There may be a couple this time, but a lot of buyers in the MLE market.  You would have to get it just right to be worth it.

[soog]

Well, Nets added them, not Lakers. Lakers got Drummond. Betting on a buyout market might not be a very safe strategy.




Please tell me which vet ring chasers they got. I listed them to you. Matthews, Dudley, Morris, Gasol. And they are not getting much from any of them. Why am I just repeating myself. Last year it were Rondo, Howard and JaVale. Your min salary vet chasers are mostly fantasy. 




He is a 15 mil contract they can trade. Without him they don't have a 15 mil contract to trade. And if you guys assume there are teams wiling to offer 15 mil to THT this also means there are teams willing to trade for THT. Just one example - one would imagine Houston would gladly trade Gordon to LAL for THT. So Lakers get a guy who is far better than vet min vet chasers. There is absolutely no way Lakers can trade for a guy like Gordon, unless they give up one from their core rotation.

SnT is best option for Lakers, unless they believe THT is able to produce NOW. If not SnT, keeping him still beats letting him walk for nothing, imho. Some here certainly think he is able to produce now, so I don't know why it would be so terrible for Lakers to keep him.

I’m really confused by your response.  You said if they were over the cap, their hands would be tied and they wouldn’t be able to sign anyone.  The Nets are well over the cap but just added a lot of talent, so that obviously isn’t true.
And then you ask me who my hypothetical vet ring chasers are and list 7 of them over the last two years, so you make my point for me.

I’m really struggling to understand your logic on either of your first two points.

I agree that if they want something in return, a trade would be best.  I also think that time for them is now. The only reason people are talking about overpaying him now is because he is a restricted free agent.  If the Lakers match and he doesn’t pan out to be the player people think he is, then he is just another player on a bloated contract; not necessarily the trade asset you are making him out to be.  The only way matching works out is if he shows his value, and in that case they would want to keep him. So either way, matching him comes down to whether they think he is worth what it will cost them.

and let’s say I even concede your point that he would be a trade asset, is ownership going to be willing to pay $51M per year for a $15M “trade asset”?

[omahen]

And then you ask me who my hypothetical vet ring chasers are and list 7 of them over the last two years, so you make my point for me.

I clearly said those vet ring chasers are not producing. Or do you think otherwise?

The Nets are well over the cap but just added a lot of talent, so that obviously isn’t true.

Nets added that talent, not Lakers. I clearly said buyout market is a lottery and this example just proves it. It's a cherry on top of cake not the cake. Nets added talent in buyout market on top of 160 mil team. Not build team with that guys...

and let’s say I even concede your point that he would be a trade asset, is ownership going to be willing to pay $51M per year for a $15M “trade asset”?

Yes. Do you really think Lakers brought in LeBron only to explain him - you know, we are not really willing to pay tax to build team around you... It is not about THT, it is about ability to build a team. Letting him go for nothing greatly reduces that ability.

[cow]

Something will get worked out. Ask KCP ab that.

Apples and Oranges.  Dude hasn't made money yet and will be a role player on the Lakers.  If he came to the Mavs, he'd obviously be making more money and be a starter with a chance to develop quicker and earn his next big contract sooner.

The great thing about getting Dan on #TeamTHT is that is only a matter of time until everyone else falls in line.

[StepBackJay]

This board and their hopeless dreams. A THT, Holmes super team is only months away!

Right now I am thinking Demar might be the BPA that Mavs actually have a shot at signing. There are other options for sure but since Spurs are in rebuild mode Demar seems like the most available and talented of the veteran group of FAs left.

Demar at least fits a position of need, even if it's not a perfect fit. I like THJ but I would rather have DR over Richardson and THJ. Mavs can try to add defense, shooting to the bench.

[Kammrath]

This board and their hopeless dreams. A THT, Holmes super team is only months away!

Hey! Don't lump me in the the THT guys!