2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[BasketballJones41]

I don't see the fit with Markkanen. Obv the Bulls had him and were like let's go get a better version of this player in Vuc and bring Lauri off the bench. That's not a vote of confidence. The fit with the Mavs doesn't seem to be there. I imagine he can get a starting job with a rebuilding team. Here he would sort of overlap too much offensively with KP. The thing ab Collins is that he would bring some things that compliment KP at least on paper (altho some have criticized the fit there too).

In my view a young team that doesn't have a PF really but has a good defensive center would be more interested in signing 23-yr-old Lauri to a multi-year deal.

I can certainly see and understand that side of it as well.

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MBT would say that Luka/KP/Collins is the offensive trio they want that's unguardable.

I really like Collins also. Definitely won’t be sad if we end up with him instead.

[StepBackJay]

To me if you are bringing in Lauri its bc you are trading KP bc they are too redundant. KP is a better defender oh so that seems to be going in the wrong direction.

[F Gump]

Also, does Luka HAVE to accept the 150/5 extension? Could he turn it down for a bigger payday the next year?

I don't know the economics of how it all works, so I'm asking the assembled geniuses here.

Yes Luka can decline the max extension when offered. (The dollars are almost certain to be way bigger than you cite, more like 5 years 200M - it will depend on whether he qualifies for the 30%, and how much the cap goes up in 2022.)

1 The max extension of 5/200 would begin in 2022, but will be offered to him in the summer of 2021. Players don't decline max extensions. It's just not a thing. 

2 But if he declined it, then he will be offered the identical max contract of 5/200 in the summer of 2022. Or less, if he was injured in a career threatening way or there was some dramatic fall off in his game during the 2021-22 season, in which case the 2022 offer could be very different.

3 Then if he wanted to decline that identical max contract 5/200 in the summer of 2022, he can opt for either the Qualifying Offer (one year, about 12.xM), or sign an offer sheet with a different team for 3 years or longer that would start at the same number as the Mavs' max offer but would have smaller max raises (about $1M less per year), or he can play in Europe or China or somewhere else. The Mavs would have the right to match any NBA offer (which would be a smaller contract) and pay him that smaller amount.

BUT - Players strive to get a max contract offer. When it's time for their first one, they don't decline max extensions. Luka won't be the first.

[cow]

Fortunately there are boatloads of Karl Malone clones out there, and the Mavs can just take their pick.

Or not.

[michaeltex]

BUT - Players strive to get a max contract offer. When it's time for their first one, they don't decline max extensions. Luka won't be the first.

Thanks for the clarification. In essence, Luka's only real path to get paid is through the max extension, which can be offered and signed this coming off season, but becomes effective in late 2022.


I was just wondering if his agent would try and get cute with turning down this years extension offer if it would be larger after next season. But it doesn't sound like that's a path anyone takes.

[StepBackJay]

Also I know everyone here are nervous Nellies ab Luka but even when he gets to UFA if the Mavs aren't completely mismanaged he is going to get that Supermax contract having already been named as an All-NBA player.

Anthony Davis is the only high profile guy that legit guy that was RFA maxed and decided he did not want to stay with his team to ink that Supermax. You could say Kawhi did the same thing but some say he felt jerked around with his first deal in SA which was not a max and that contributed (among other things) to the eventual fall-out.

Jokic and Embiid I believe are close to Supermax territory and I expect them to sign their deals as well. Mavs should have Luka for a long time.

[DaRiv]

Tim Cato’s take from a Q&A last week on Collins vs. Ball:

I am very unhappy that Tim Cato is the Athletics's beat writer.  He offers absolutely zero insider insight, and has no discernible sources within the organization. I recall one interview he did, and that was with Willie Cauley-Stein.  I feel that literally several people on this board could offer the same analysis that he provides.

[F Gump]

Thanks for the clarification. In essence, Luka's only real path to get paid is through the max extension, which can be offered and signed this coming off season, but becomes effective in late 2022.

I was just wondering if his agent would try and get cute with turning down this years extension offer if it would be larger after next season. But it doesn't sound like that's a path anyone takes.

yes.

There's nothing to be gained financially by waiting, if you have been offered a max extension. Not one penny. But plenty at risk, while you wait.

By waiting, the agent is risking his own payday too. So there's also that in the mix.

[F Gump]

1 Anthony Davis is the only high profile guy that legit guy that was RFA maxed and decided he did not want to stay with his team to ink that Supermax.

2 You could say Kawhi did the same thing but some say he felt jerked around with his first deal in SA which was not a max and that contributed (among other things) to the eventual fall-out.
 

To be clear, both AD and Kawhi signed two max-length deals with their team that drafted them, first as a rookie and then coming off the rookie deal. The problems only began when they got to contract 3.

Both AD and Kawhi added max length max salary deals when coming off rookie contracts. Neither could have been paid a penny more. And both took the max deal when offered.

AD signed a full max-max extension after year 3.

Kawhi signed a full max-max RFA contract after year 4, as the Spurs finessed his deal into free agency in order to max out their cap room that summer. The Spurs waited so they could free up cap space to chase other free agents, especially Aldridge. The rift with SA, which didn't happen until a season-and-a-half later, seemed to be over the way the team handled his injury issues, as they had paid him from day one as much as the rules allowed..

[StepBackJay]

Kawhi signed a full max-max RFA contract after year 4, as the Spurs finessed his deal into free agency in order to max out their cap room that summer. The Spurs waited so they could free up cap space to chase other free agents, especially Aldridge. The rift with SA, which didn't happen until a season-and-a-half later, seemed to be over the way the team handled his injury issues, as they had paid him from day one as much as the rules allowed..

I thought Bill Simmons mentioned something where the Spurs monkeyed around with his contract. I don't remember the details but its fine. Those are 2 guys that passed up the Supermax. I think each were sort of unique situations. I have a high degree of confidence that Luka will fall in line with the other stars that do sign their Supermax.

[Aussiebballer]

The only thing stopping Luka signing a 5 yr Max extension would be if the salary cap has a massive increase when the next TV deal kicks in, 2025.
If that means the salary cap doubles or triples then Luka may ask for a player option a year early to opt out and sign a new 5 year deal.

[MFFL]

Never happened before, don't think Luka is going to be the one to be the first to turn down a max RFA extension

I know it wasn't the max but the Nerlens Noel story is a scare tactic that every agent will use from now on

[MFFL]

I am very unhappy that Tim Cato is the Athletics's beat writer.  He offers absolutely zero insider insight, and has no discernible sources within the organization. I recall one interview he did, and that was with Willie Cauley-Stein.  I feel that literally several people on this board could offer the same analysis that he provides.

He's not very good but I'm only paying to read Bob Sturm's articles so everything else is just a bonus

[Jason Terry]

We needed a high motor backup 4 who could rebound and play some D........Melli looking like our BAE

[mvossman]

We needed a high motor backup 4 who could rebound and play some D........Melli looking like our BAE

Unless we operate over the cap.  Then we don't need to burn an exception to keep him.

[SamStetz]

https://twitter.com/tribjazz/status/1379...84321?s=20

For those looking to make Conley to Dallas connections...

[Scott41theMavs]

https://twitter.com/tribjazz/status/1379...84321?s=20

For those looking to make Conley to Dallas connections...

Very carefully stated. Can't be charged with tampering. Love it.

[StepBackJay]

I hate being right so much but I told ya'll about Conley. This dude is still balling at 33. He should be looked at. Not saying to get him a 9 year contract or anything but let's give him a look.

[cow]

I hate being right so much but I told ya'll about Conley. This dude is still balling at 33. He should be looked at. Not saying to get him a 9 year contract or anything but let's give him a look.

Utah has 134m committed next year without Conley.  He's going to want 30+ a year.

[DanSchwartzgan]

I hate being right so much but I told ya'll about Conley. This dude is still balling at 33. He should be looked at. Not saying to get him a 9 year contract or anything but let's give him a look.

Lowry has lost a step, but Conley is having a fantastic season.  Hollinger called Conley a likely re-sign in Utah (despite the committed salary).  But, never fear.  He listed another potential star PG as a target for Dallas (before you get too excited, he goes on to mention other teams after the excerpt below and then goes on to outline ways Phoenix can offer more money).  The discussion starts out as a look at the impact of the Holiday extension on Free Agency this summer:



And the player it impacts the most might be another extension-eligible player on a winning team … Phoenix’s Chris Paul.


The Point God turns 36 next month, but he’s still chugging along, deservedly making the Western Conference All-Star team while pushing the Suns into second place in the West. And in a 2021 free-agent market where Kawhi Leonard seems certain to re-sign in L.A. and Utah’s Mike Conley (another high probability re-signing) is the only other 2021 All-Star hitting free agency, it’s time to start wondering if CP3 could be this year’s Gordon Hayward.

I bring up Hayward because of the similarity of their contractual situations. Paul has a player option for 2021-22 that pays him $44 million, so he’s not walking away from that for just anything. But as with Hayward a year ago (who turned down a $35 million option once four years and $120 million were on the table from Charlotte), one wonders if Paul might walk away from the option year if a longer deal for less annual money were out there.

He won’t lack for suitors. Dallas, for instance, is craving a secondary ballhandler to pair next to Luka Doncic and just so happens to have about $35 million in cap room coming its way. Could the Mavs offer a three-year deal worth $110 million to lure CP3 to Texas as the third pillar of an All-Star triangle next to Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis?