2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Meh they have lost value since then though. It remains to be seen if any of the guys we drafted can even rise to the value of the pick we used.

I don't understand this logic really.  Wouldn't unused picks be unknowns as well?  We have two 19 year olds that still have high upside, how different is that than an unused pick?  Also, RJ Hampton fits that same bill and I would argue he was just the centerpiece of the biggest trade this deadline.

[StepBackJay]

I don't understand this logic really.  Wouldn't unused picks be unknowns as well?  We have two 19 year olds that still have high upside, how different is that than an unused pick?  Also, RJ Hampton fits that same bill and I would argue he was just the centerpiece of the biggest trade this deadline.

Unused picks don't take up salary cap space for one and they are whoever the GM wants them to be. They may not want a Josh Green or a Tyrell Terry especially once they see them not really contributing much.

[StepBackJay]

So if Collins is the target I wonder if Mavs are going to rescind their TDL offer and just clear space to sign Collins to a max contract to see if the Hawks blink or use that as a way into forcing them into a negotiation?

Hawks know he is going to get maxed so they must be thinking they are either going to just sign him to that or try to get the best offer they can in a S&T.

[mvossman]

so is Bobby Marks right about $33.5 vs the $37.3 number?

I also wouldnt be surprised if they have a Powell deal as backup in case they can get Collins.

Collins max - $25 million
THJ - $16 - 18 million
bye bye JRich

That team is not good enough defensively to be contenders, has almost nobody who can play make other than Luka and has three max players with two of them stepping on each others toes.  I think if you go this route, you need to trade KP for a defensive center and a play maker.  Ideal would be for Turner/Brogdon.

[ItsGoTime]

That team is not good enough defensively to be contenders, has almost nobody who can play make other than Luka and has three max players with two of them stepping on each others toes.  I think if you go this route, you need to trade KP for a defensive center and a play maker.  Ideal would be for Turner/Brogdon.

I really want Turner if we move on from KP, have I said that before? Turner/Brogdon would be a dream return! I'm pretty sure we'd need more than KP outgoing as far as impact players because it was said that IND is not looking for picks as much as players. KP/JB might move the needle for them, depends on what they see in JB.

[F Gump]

so is Bobby Marks right about $33.5 vs the $37.3 number?

I also wouldnt be surprised if they have a Powell deal as backup in case they can get Collins.

Collins max - $25 million
THJ - $16 - 18 million
bye bye JRich

Not sure what 37.3M number you are talking about.

If Marks has 33.5 (J Rich and WCS options declined, don't retain Bird rights holds on THJ, J Rich, WCS, Redick, Melli, Boban), I've probably misadded somehow because the numbers I've seen leaves about 34.38M in cap room. But no biggie, 33.5 vs 34.3 is not enough difference to change the possibilities.

Using the vast majority of that for a serious pursuit of a higher salary like Collins using cap room would almost certainly require moving Powell's salary to have room for other needed talent too (bumping them up to 44.5M to start), but it seems far-fetched to think they'd find a taker with no salary coming back. So a splashy move, if contemplated, likely envisions working over the cap and using the sign-and-trade mechanism rather than freeing cap room.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

That team is not good enough defensively to be contenders, has almost nobody who can play make other than Luka and has three max players with two of them stepping on each others toes. 

Just guessing at this point but I think they’re still in acquire 3rd star mode. Figure out the missing pieces later when the Mavs are ready to truly contend. 

KP trade can’t be ruled out either.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Unused picks don't take up salary cap space for one and they are whoever the GM wants them to be. They may not want a Josh Green or a Tyrell Terry especially once they see them not really contributing much.

That's fair on the first part, I just feel like there's still a lot of value in any upside player on rookie deals because of restricted free agency and any sort of blockbuster trade that involves young prospects for a veteran player usually doesn't have any cap space issues for the team taking on those young guys.

The second point is something that no one on this board knows.  I would bet that Green is still seen has very valuable across the league from a prospect standpoint.  RJ Hampton wasn't contributing either but someone saw value there and wanted to take a swing on him.

[StepBackJay]

Just guessing at this point but I think they’re still in acquire 3rd star mode. Figure out the missing pieces later when the Mavs are ready to truly contend. 

I agree with this ^^. Also its possible they keep J Rich as a defensive piece or find another defensive piece somewhere. But ya priority would be get the third core player and then fill in around that. DFS I think is important to MBT as a glue piece including defensively.

[StepBackJay]

That's fair on the first part, I just feel like there's still a lot of value in any upside player on rookie deals because of restricted free agency and any sort of blockbuster trade that involves young prospects for a veteran player usually doesn't have any cap space issues for the team taking on those young guys.

The second point is something that no one on this board knows.  I would bet that Green is still seen has very valuable across the league from a prospect standpoint.  RJ Hampton wasn't contributing either but someone saw value there and wanted to take a swing on him.

Ya its just an open question honestly and its going to vary per team. If Mavs had a future first that has value to virtually every team and moreso than Green who is a specific player with specific upside/flaws that takes up cap space.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Not sure what 37.3M number you are talking about.

If Marks has 33.5 (J Rich and WCS options declined, don't retain Bird rights holds on THJ, J Rich, WCS, Redick, Melli, Boban), I've probably misadded somehow because the numbers I've seen leaves about 34.38M in cap room. But no biggie, 33.5 vs 34.3 is not enough difference to change the possibilities.

Using the vast majority of that for a serious pursuit of a higher salary like Collins using cap room would almost certainly require moving Powell's salary to have room for other needed talent too (bumping them up to 44.5M to start), but it seems far-fetched to think they'd find a taker with no salary coming back. So a splashy move, if contemplated, likely envisions working over the cap and using the sign-and-trade mechanism rather than freeing cap room.

The $37.3mm is Kamm's number in the spreadsheet on page one of this thread.  But, Kamm doesn't include cap holds.

I'm curious, what dollar amount are you using for the minimum holds for the slots on top of the nine returning players (KP, Powell, Luka, Maxi, DFS, Burke, Green, Brunson and Terry) and how many of those are you using?  I'm at $33.5, but I'm not positive (after our recent conversation) that I have the right number of holds.  I'm using $916,276 and I have four of them on top of the nine players.

One other place of possible confusion is Maxi's pay.  Spotrac has $8.65mm plus $175k in likely bonuses or $8.825mm.  Kamm is carrying him at $8.75mm.  He actually has a shot at triggering another $150k for keeping his 3% above 40%.

[cow]

What's everyone's gut on JRich opting out?  I'm starting to think he will despite his play.  Seems like the free agent pool is pretty shallow and there will be enough money out there for him to another long term deal.  Considering the Mavericks recent recruiting history, I'd consider them a decent safety net.

[Kammrath]

Made some changes....maybe this is more accurate:

[mvossman]

What's everyone's gut on JRich opting out?  I'm starting to think he will despite his play.  Seems like the free agent pool is pretty shallow and there will be enough money out there for him to another long term deal.  Considering the Mavericks recent recruiting history, I'd consider them a decent safety net.

Based on your posts, I am guessing you are going to hate this, but I kind of like the idea of offering him an extension.  I think the max we can offer him is something like 13?  I think he has had a down year shooting, and had some lingering struggles with the whole Covid thing.  He has been disappointing, but an extension at that price would be buying low.

[StepBackJay]

If J Rich opts out (which I think he will) does his caphold this offseason become that 17 number?

[StepBackJay]

Based on your posts, I am guessing you are going to hate this, but I kind of like the idea of offering him an extension.  I think the max we can offer him is something like 13?  I think he has had a down year shooting, and had some lingering struggles with the whole Covid thing.  He has been disappointing, but an extension at that price would be buying low.

While I think there is a chance he opts in I actually think its a low one just bc that 11 number is not high for a guy who's floor is still a top 7 rotation player on a lot of teams. That puts you in minimum MLE range which is so close to the opt-in number I don't see an advantage to him opting in. If he was making 18 mil or something like that then it would be an obvious opt-in situation (THJ had that this year).

There's little risk to him opting out. In Powell's situation I think his agent knew he was an MLE type player and so he was able to lock in a slightly above MLE deal through an extension. I believe J Rich will be in a better position despite his flaws as a player.

[mvossman]

If J Rich opts out (which I think he will) does his caphold this offseason become that 17 number?

Yes.  Does not matter if we operate over the cap, but it does mean that we would have to renounce him and THJ to make a big offer with cap space.  We lose bird rights at that point.  Another reason to go for an extension.

[DanSchwartzgan]

If J Rich opts out (which I think he will) does his caphold this offseason become that 17 number?

That 17 number is the cap hold in 22.  It is 150% of what he will be paid in 21 if he opts in.  If he doesn't opt in, the real hold for 21 is 150% of the 20/21 number, which is $16,298,928.  

As you and mvossman have said, it may or may not really matter.  Just thought I'd clarify.

[StepBackJay]

Yes.  Does not matter if we operate over the cap, but it does mean that we would have to renounce him and THJ to make a big offer with cap space.  We lose bird rights at that point.  Another reason to go for an extension.

Right but I think there's a chance the Mavs are going to do some combo of renouncing/trading perhaps to free up space for Collins. It remains to be seen. I could see them doing that and risking losing THJ/J Rich knowing that they can resign them or similar players or working out a trade for Collins.

[F Gump]

Made some changes....maybe this is more accurate:

That looks like what I was calculating from, and the 9 players with contracts plus 3 empty slot holds, leaves about 34.4M in cap room.

That means you can sign the next 4 players to 34.4, minimum, minimum, minimum. Or you can move some of the 34.4 to pay more to the other 3 (instead of just the minimum) and less to the first guy.