2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[omahen]

Seems to me the team thinks we need something more than JRich (which is the message of the Redick trade and possible attempt to get Fournier).  Plus, just sticking with what we have doesn’t solve the issue with how bad we are when THJ and JRich share the floor.

I think playoffs will have a huge impact on the valuation of our guys. Personally I am expecting JRich to be good. I can be wrong, of course
I think moving on from Curry for a more defensive minded guy was the right thing to do. JRich might be less than what we expected, but he is still ok. In the long run, Luka and KP will have to be surrounded by good defenders. As you said - not many guys who can do everything well. I firmly believe moving from defensive oriented guy to an offensive specialist would be a step in the wrong direction. Out of the free agents I think Ball is the only guy resembling what Mavs are actually looking for at the SG spot next to Luka. SnT would be needed to get him and resign THJ. If we could do it operating over the cap, we could sign them and use MLE for Theis. I would love to have McConell.

As I said in one of the previous posts, I have most problems finding a spot for Brunson. He is not good enough on defense to be that SG next to Luka, imho. He is not really secondary facilitator as he mostly creates for himself. On the other hand he is really progressing well, so perhaps he deserves the shot and we can spend money elsewhere. Not many wings available to replace DFS though and good PF is more or less limited to Collins, if one has doubts about Markanen fit.

[StepBackJay]

Gordon took a starting caliber player, a player who was just taken in the 1st round 4 months ago and a future 1st.   So, no, Aaron Gordon didn't go for the #18 pick and a few 2nds.   And Aaron Gordon isn't a 3rd star.

I am pretty sure Denver was happy to dump Gary Harris' money. He was way overpaid. Good defensive player but not a lot on offensive.

[StepBackJay]

We still have all those things though, just in the form of players on rookie deals instead of raw picks.  Very strong chance of them getting flipped down the road so I wouldn't say we blew it just yet.

Meh they have lost value since then though. It remains to be seen if any of the guys we drafted can even rise to the value of the pick we used.

[omahen]

Plus, just sticking with what we have doesn’t solve the issue with how bad we are when THJ and JRich share the floor.

As for this part, I have checked stats since Feb 1st trying to take away some Covid noise.

Looking at 5 man lineups the standard starting 5 played most minutes together and they are great. Rest of lineups have far less minutes, but for example lineup where THJ is in for Kleber and Brunson for Doncic has second most minutes and net rating of 25,8. This is the lineup that starts after 5th minute of first quarter. Lineup with THJ instead of DFS is also good with net rating of almost 12 (third most used lineup, but only 50 minutes together). Lineup with THJ instead of Kleber is a disaster with negative 13 rating in 35 minutes together.

Looking at two man lineups, THJ and Richardson are bad. But 2 man lineups of Richardson with either Kleber, KP, DFS and Luka are all positive. On the other hand THJ is negative with Richardson, DFS and Kleber.

Based on all this it is difficult to point out a single man. A lot of stuff shows that team is performing well with both on the court.

[mvossman]

I would be a big fan of the Theis idea.

Seems to me the team thinks we need something more than JRich (which is the message of the Redick trade and possible attempt to get Fournier).  Plus, just sticking with what we have doesn’t solve the issue with how bad we are when THJ and JRich share the floor.  

The question, to me, is whether you replace JRich or add to JRich.  Older guys like Lowry or Conley could arguably replace him with a more complete skill set.  But, that is a band-aid.  Or, maybe you do something like Dinwiddie or Monk as a bench piece who can do things JRich can’t.  Green complicates this as he could possibly do the JRich defensive things from the bench in a couple of years.  If you knew he’d get to that level, I might replace JRich rather than add to him.  No one thinks of Devonte’ Graham as a great defender, but he apprears to hold his own statistically.  Rozier would be interesting too (what is it with Dan and Charlotte guards?).

Don't think there has been nearly big enough sample to determine THJ and JRich can't share the floor.  How many of those minutes were early in the season with no KP and Powell as the single big?  How many were when Luka was out?  Personally I would like to see THJ to replace DFS in the starting lineup.  Brunson can be the 6th man, and DFS can maybe help shore up the backup 4.

[StepBackJay]

I like Lowry and Ball, I just don't think either of those guys are possible. Maybe that could change once we get to the offseason and get some leaks. Lowry I think wants to stay on the Raps or do a S&T to a contender and I don't believe Dallas is on his radar.

Ball wants to play in a big market and NYK seems to be super into him. They have like 80 mil in cash and even assets they could throw at NO if they really needed to. I think a max offer is enough to keep NOP from matching. Like if you are the Knicks you might just take Adams to get Ball so that you don't have to give him a max deal and just do a S&T. At any rate I just don't see it. I do believe he would be a good fit next to Luka but I have not seen any tea leaves indicating a connection.

As we have speculated Mavs could just go all-in on Collins. Try to construct a trade, probably with at least one additional team that sends back assets Atlanta wants. Mavs have some nice players on good contracts (Maxi, DFS, Brunson) + kids but Atlanta may not want any of those guys. I don't think they cared ab the Mavs offer at the TDL bc really there was no rush to do anything then with the Hawks playing well. Mavs can raise the stakes in the summer by putting a max deal on the table and getting the Hawks to except a S&T deal instead of matching what they think is too rich of a deal for a player that doesn't get along with Trae.

The Mavs might be totally fine with the risk that THJ and/or Rich go elsewhere why this negotiation is happening. Since Mavs need to negotiate with the Hawks first I imagine they could get pretty far along by the time free agency opens so I am not sure time would get wasted. Mavs will probably have an idea whether they have a framework of a deal that can work or not by that time.

From my perspective this is shaping up as like a Collins-or-bust scenario where Mavs will take a stab at that "third star" route and if it fails, fall back on putting solid role players on value contracts. I don't think them going big on any other FA honestly.

[DanSchwartzgan]

As for this part, I have checked stats since Feb 1st trying to take away some Covid noise.

Looking at 5 man lineups the standard starting 5 played most minutes together and they are great. Rest of lineups have far less minutes, but for example lineup where THJ is in for Kleber and Brunson for Doncic has second most minutes and net rating of 25,8. This is the lineup that starts after 5th minute of first quarter. Lineup with THJ instead of DFS is also good with net rating of almost 12 (third most used lineup, but only 50 minutes together). Lineup with THJ instead of Kleber is a disaster with negative 13 rating in 35 minutes together.

Looking at two man lineups, THJ and Richardson are bad. But 2 man lineups of Richardson with either Kleber, KP, DFS and Luka are all positive. On the other hand THJ is negative with Richardson, DFS and Kleber.

Based on all this it is difficult to point out a single man. A lot of stuff shows that team is performing well with both on the court.

You might go to 82games.com.  You can see the most used lineups for each player and select stats for those lineups.  You can’t select periods of time, just the entire season.  But, it might help find patterns in what works and what doesn’t.  It is updated weekly rather than daily.

[dirkfansince1998]

I think @"omahen" nailed my favorit scenario:

Resign JRich and THJ
MLE for Theis
BAE for McConnell

Decline WCSs team option. Try to trade Burke, Powell. If necessary (other teams offer them a contract) match any offer for Hinton and Bey.

[StepBackJay]

I think @"omahen" nailed my favorit scenario:

Resign JRich and THJ
MLE for Theis
BAE for McConnell

Decline WCSs team option. Try to trade Burke, Powell. If necessary (other teams offer them a contract) match any offer for Hinton and Bey.

I wouldn't mind that. Are we sure the 2nd year of WCS is a team option?

[KillerLeft]

I think @"omahen" nailed my favorit scenario:

Resign JRich and THJ
MLE for Theis
BAE for McConnell

Decline WCSs team option. Try to trade Burke, Powell. If necessary (other teams offer them a contract) match any offer for Hinton and Bey.

I could live with this, but will hope for better.

[StepBackJay]

@dirkfansince1998 if we can dump Powell for anything that would also we a win.

[StepBackJay]

I wouldn't mind for example getting Aminu back for Powell. Not sure Chicago needs Aminu. Aminu only has one year left on his deal.

[cow]

Ball wants to play in a big market and NYK seems to be super into him. 

Do we really know what Lonzo wants?  We know what his dad wants:  For his son to be the center of the universe for a big market team.  The reason Lonzo is still with the Pelicans is that he sat down with the NOPBT and said he liked being on the team.  Maybe Lonzo just wants to be in a good basketball situation.  God knows, he understand what being in a major media market is like and the scrutiny that comes with it.  New York has had a Cinderella season but I think it's close to midnight for them.  

And that's not an endorsement for him to come to Dallas as much as that would be awesome.  I wouldn't be surprised if he just stays with the Pelicans long term.  I don't think it is safe to assume anything about his motivations right now.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

Looking long-term, I could see a likelihood of the Mavs signing both THJ and Richardson and then using the Full MLE as an above the cap team. Truly I don't see a way where relinquishing rights on a player to chase the white rabbit in FA makes us a better team, but I CAN see where that could hurt our asset accumulation greatly...

That's what I was expecting initially but...

Mark Stein keeps saying the Mavs will be super aggressive this summer.

Tim McMahon also said this is the summer for the Mavs to add that third piece.  It's a big summer for them.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

I am pretty sure Denver was happy to dump Gary Harris' money. He was way overpaid. Good defensive player but not a lot on offensive.

I don't think they were that thrilled with it, because they're trying to win a Championship and Garry Harris is pretty good at basketball.    Generally when you're trying to win Championships you like to keep all your players who are good at basketball.  The ultimately goal is to hoist the O'Brien trophy, not have the cleanest accounting ledger.   In the end they obviously felt that the cost was worth it and they had to make salaries match.

[DanSchwartzgan]

This is a couple of days old, but here is what Bobby Marks has to say about the Dallas off-season.   


Dallas Mavericks

Projected room: $20 million

Who returns: Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, Dwight Powell, Josh Richardson (option exercised), Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, Willie Cauley-Stein (option exercised), Josh Green, Trey Burke, Jalen Brunson and Tyrell Terry

Who might be gone: Tim Hardaway Jr., JJ Redick, Nicolo Melli and Boban Marjanovic

Other charges: None
 
The 2021 offseason presents an opportunity for Dallas to maximize cap flexibility, with Doncic heading into the final year of his rookie-scale contract.

By releasing the cap holds of free agents Redick and Hardaway, Dallas projects to have $20 million in cap space. If 

Richardson opts out of his $11.6 million contract and the $4.1 million team option of Cauley-Stein is not exercised, the Mavericks could have up to $33.5 million.

Because the cap in 2022-23 is projected to increase slightly ($112 million to $115 million), the Mavericks would still have $22 million if they punt on free agency this offseason, factoring in a max extension for Doncic.

[StepBackJay]

I don't think they were that thrilled with it, because they're trying to win a Championship and Garry Harris is pretty good at basketball.    Generally when you're trying to win Championships you like to keep all your players who are good at basketball.  The ultimately goal is to hoist the O'Brien trophy, not have the cleanest accounting ledger.   In the end they obviously felt that the cost was worth it and they had to make salaries match.

My point is I don't believe he was viewed as an asset in the trade, more like salary filler.

[StepBackJay]

That's what I was expecting initially but...

Mark Stein keeps saying the Mavs will be super aggressive this summer.

Tim McMahon also said this is the summer for the Mavs to add that third piece.  It's a big summer for them.

To be fair that was the case a couple of years ago which turned into Kemba or bust one e the big names were off the table. Then it became Danny Green will he or won't he and finally Curry and Wright as the big additions.

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

so is Bobby Marks right about $33.5 vs the $37.3 number?

I also wouldnt be surprised if they have a Powell deal as backup in case they can get Collins.

Collins max - $25 million
THJ - $16 - 18 million
bye bye JRich

[StepBackJay]

so is Bobby Marks right about $33.5 vs the $37.3 number?

I also wouldnt be surprised if they have a Powell deal as backup in case they can get Collins.

Collins max - $25 million
THJ - $16 - 18 million
bye bye JRich

Man I want Powell gone so bad regardless of Collins or no Collins.