2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[cow]

https://twitter.com/ChrisBHaynes/status/...72578?s=20

I really want to overreact to this but I'm just too tired.

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Something I thought of with this summer: let's suppose that KP has a good postseason, stays healthy, but wants out. Let's suppose that Golden State thinks Klay will be healthy, and they want to take one more shot. Let's suppose Minny gets the 4th/5th pick. And let's suppose Atlanta doesn't want to pay Collins, and they don't think their current team is good enough for its payroll. They could work out a 3-team trade something like:

GOLDEN STATE GETS:
-KP
-Bogdan

ATLANTA GETS:
-Wiseman
-Wiggins
-Powell
-Minny pick

DALLAS GETS:
-Collins
-Capela

Golden State gets one more chance, Atlanta adds high-quality young talent while saving some money, and the Mavs get a new frontcourt.

Lot's of ifs.  What's the consensus of this draft class?

[Aussiebballer]

Mavs would be better off just taking Wiseman and the Min pick instead of Collins.
The top 5 guys in the us draft look legit and Wiseman at worst will be a quality starter.

[SleepingHero]

Mavs would be better off just taking Wiseman

Just saying Wiseman barely looks like an NBA basketball player right now and has battled injuries this entire year. He basically made a high school to NBA jump so it's not surprising he's struggling but he's going to need another year, maybe 2, to become competent. Why waste 2 years of Luka? 

The MIN pick is only good if it lands 4/5. If it does, then the Mavs have their choice at a top prospect in a pretty top heavy class which is good, but it's also putting even more faith in a rookie coming in and making an immediate impact. I think it's more of a gamble to hope 2 greenhorns turn out to be better than just KP even with his injury woes. 

Unless y'all are thinking to use Wiseman and the MIN pick to trade for another star? And if that's the case, why not just keep KP and use him to trade for that star you're going to use those assets for? 

It's been beaten to death. Mavs can't trade KP unless he breaks out, making him incredibly valuable. Any other scenario has the Mavs taking a multiple step backs from where they are now. It's a catch-22 because you need KP to play very well to make him a value target, but if he's playing super well there's no reason for the Mavs to trade him. 

Not trying to single you out btw, just using your post as a springboard.

[Mapka]

Mavs would be better off just taking Wiseman and the Min pick instead of Collins.
The top 5 guys in the us draft look legit and Wiseman at worst will be a quality starter.

Or they can just keep KP

I like a KP-DP back to relativ health frontcourt ten times better than anything containing Capela.

[sefant]

Yeah, the record-breaking offense really took a hit when Powell’s achilles snapped.

Is that true tho? The Mavs offense, especially from the starting 5 is still killing it right now. I am wondering what happens if Luka and KP build a little better chemistry. You wouldn't expect those numbers if you read the last 3 pages of this thread.


Luka - THJ - DFS - Powell - KP
120.3 offensive rating
in 205 min


Luka - Curry - THJ - DFS- KP
119.8 offensive rating
in 161 min


Luka - JRich - DFS - Kleber - KP
127.7 offensive rating
in 193 min


JRich is totally underrated around here and there are still a lot of people that want Curry back. People tend to only look at 3 pt shooting stats. But i believe JRich overall has career highs at midrange and the rim so far with the Mavs. And the Mavs defense got unquestionable better with Jrich than without.

https://twitter.com/bobbykaralla/status/...3438073860

[SleepingHero]

What do you guys think about adding Rondae Hollis Jefferson? Currently a FA. Only 26 and is a high energy defensive forward.

Could be a good Iwundu replacement.

[omahen]

What do you guys think about adding Rondae Hollis Jefferson? Currently a FA. Only 26 and is a high energy defensive forward.

Good idea for a body to fight with LeBron, Kawhi types. Better version of MKG imho

[Branduil]

JRich has been playing a lot better for sure, along with the entire team.

Really this whole thing comes down to KP and his ability to stay healthy+chemistry with Luka.

[Chicagojk]

Yeah I believe THJ is the guy gone. I've gone back and forth on it. 
But I think THJ has more value and arguably the better player but clearly worse on defense. 

If they really planned on him being back I don't think he's off the bench instead of DFS or Kleber. He said he believes he's a starter multiple times and while his attitude his good I don't think he likes being off the bench. I just have never gotten the vibe that's his end game. But he's a team player and will do it for now. 

I also think THJ's market will be much higher than Richardson. I'd suspect JR will get a deal somewhere around his current deal to 15 mill. I think THJ is getting 20 mill. It's a brutal market this summer overall and the shooting is very weak. 

I'm completely good with bringing them both back at this point. But I really don't see it happening. It's been my vibe from the minute we trade for Richardson.

Interesting.   The Mavs have a difficult tightrope.  This team isn't a MLE player away from a championship level team.   And the MLE most years, and probably this year especially, is best suited for a fringe starter or bench guy.   And Dallas has plenty of those.  

I don't believe Collins is a realistic target this offseason.  That just has blowup all over it.    

But what combination is better than keeping both Hardaway and Richardson or keeping one of them?   Holmes from Sacramento and Derozan?  Is that better?  Does that put us closer to a championship?

Dallas has a very tricky offseason up ahead and they really need to come through and make their team closer to a championship contender.  They are not there yet and at this point haven't fully taken advantage of their opportunities.

[Kammrath]

https://twitter.com/ChrisBHaynes/status/...6226072578

[Chicagojk]

With the Mavs scrambling to find a replacement for Lyles, I know have doubts they have any inside track on a buyout guy.  FYI, I am not sure Lyles wouldn't helped with our need either.   So Melli wasn't a target, he apparently was just a fill in.  BTW, are the Mavs the worst team finalizing trades?  I know this one may not have been their fault, but still.  

Mavs can't expect for a deep playoff run with this front court, especially at PF imo.    They are one injury or foul trouble where things can get messy real quick.  Rick would need to work his magic.   Maybe Powell continues strong play of the last few games, but this team is really thin with a bunch of backup specialists.   Free Boban!  Heck give him 10 minutes a night and see what happens.

edit: Maybe I am discounting Melli.  Pelican fans seem to think he stinks.  And his numbers back this up.   He looked to be a good international player.   But is probably not someone who is better than we already have.  And we need someone better than what we already have.

[Kammrath]

Luka - JRich - DFS - Kleber - KP
127.7 offensive rating
in 193 min


JRich is totally underrated around here and there are still a lot of people that want Curry back. People tend to only look at 3 pt shooting stats. But i believe JRich overall has career highs at midrange and the rim so far with the Mavs. And the Mavs defense got unquestionable better with Jrich than without.

A few things:

1) You make a GREAT point about the starting five. They continue to play amazing offense together and the best justification for the Mavs doing nothing at the TDL is their +12.5 net rating. Thanks for the reminder on that, we all need to be reminded of this data.

2) However your statement "the Mavs defense got unquestionable better with Jrich than without" is unequivocally false. The defense has been worse, MUCH worse with JR. The Mavs are 6.0 pts worse defensively this season in every minute he has played (1056 mins) versus when he has sat (965 mins). The offense has been better by 1.4 pts with JR, so if anything he has helped the offense.

3) The great starting lineup is playing better offense than anything the Mavs did last year, BUT they are also playing much worse defense, 5.8 pts worse in fact. So the net result of all the changes that happened this offseason have resulted in better offense and worse defense for what has become the starting core.

[Branduil]

I have always been of the opinion that judging defense solely based on on/off numbers is a bad idea but especially so when it's a player whose job is to guard the other team's stars. Like if JRich is sitting at the same time as Lillard or Steph Curry then of course the defensive numbers will improve, because the best defense against superstars will always be for them not to play.

[F Gump]

A few things:

1) You make a GREAT point about the starting five. They continue to play amazing offense together and the best justification for the Mavs doing nothing at the TDL is their +12.5 net rating. Thanks for the reminder on that, we all need to be reminded of this data.

2) However your statement "the Mavs defense got unquestionable better with Jrich than without" is unequivocally false. The defense has been worse, MUCH worse with JR. The Mavs are 6.0 pts worse defensively this season in every minute he has played (1056 mins) versus when he has sat (965 mins). The offense has been better by 1.4 pts with JR, so if anything he has helped the offense.

3) The great starting lineup is playing better offense than anything the Mavs did last year, BUT they are also playing much worse defense, 5.8 pts worse in fact. So the net result of all the changes that happened this offseason have resulted in better offense and worse defense for what has become the starting core.

What do the comparative results for J-Rich, and for the team, look like if we exclude everything before they recovered from covid and were able to start playing together healthy? Both player vs team, and year (2019-20) over year (the last part of 1920-21)?

There have been a lot of weird factors that have altered numbers this season, if we use them all at face value and equal value. Lop off the first half or so, when it was really a disaster on so many levels, and the rotations were really patchwork, and use the stats from g 22 onward, and I wonder if maybe it tells a different story.

[omahen]

A few things:

1) You make a GREAT point about the starting five. They continue to play amazing offense together and the best justification for the Mavs doing nothing at the TDL is their +12.5 net rating. Thanks for the reminder on that, we all need to be reminded of this data.

2) However your statement "the Mavs defense got unquestionable better with Jrich than without" is unequivocally false. The defense has been worse, MUCH worse with JR. The Mavs are 6.0 pts worse defensively this season in every minute he has played (1056 mins) versus when he has sat (965 mins). The offense has been better by 1.4 pts with JR, so if anything he has helped the offense.

3) The great starting lineup is playing better offense than anything the Mavs did last year, BUT they are also playing much worse defense, 5.8 pts worse in fact. So the net result of all the changes that happened this offseason have resulted in better offense and worse defense for what has become the starting core.

I don't agree with this interpretation at all. Team rating is a team rating, it is not an individual rating. Many different things affect the team rating, not just individual quality - quality of lineups you play with, quality of opponents lineups you play against and similar. If we take on off team ratings into account, Mavs defense is better when DFS sits and when JRich sits. So looks like what we think are our two best defenders actually suck at playing defense. On the other hand the defense improves with Burke while Powell and (check this!) Bobi are absolute defensive studs, according to this metric. Team index can only be used as a comparison between lineups imho, and evaluate defensive impact from here. Even this way, many factors are contributing. For example - KP was considerably better defensively last season than this one. 

Best comparison to the Luka-JRich-DFS-Kleber-KP lineup can be line-ups with THJ or Curry from last season instead of JRich. The one with THJ in had a defensive rating of 122 in 90+ minutes. Considerably worse than JRich lineup rating of 115. The one with Curry had a defensive rating of 112 in 70 minutes. Looks like Curry is a defensive stud

[HanspardShowerVoice]

How about let THJ and JRich walk, and spend the money on Markkanen and Lonzo.   Build  the core of the team around Luka 22 years old, KP 25 years old, Markkanen 23 years old and Lonzo 23 years old.  Add in an affordable switchable defensive wing (Maxi and DoDo?), and that would be a gigantic lineup length wise.

[haveitall]

How about let THJ and JRich walk, and spend the money on Markkanen and Lonzo.   Build  the core of the team around Luka 22 years old, KP 25 years old, Markkanen 23 years old and Lonzo 23 years old.  Add in an affordable switchable defensive wing (Maxi and DoDo?), and that would be a gigantic lineup length wise.

Lonzo needs the ball (pun intended) in his hands and would take touches away from Luka.  Markkanen is a poor man's KP.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

Lonzo needs the ball (pun intended) in his hands and would take touches away from Luka.  Markkanen is a poor man's KP.

Lonzo has adjusted his game to a defensive oriented off ball guard who shoots spot up 3s.

Markkanen is a forward who needs to be paired with a high level rim defender (which KP is).

[Jason Terry]

What do the comparative results for J-Rich, and for the team, look like if we exclude everything before they recovered from covid and were able to start playing together healthy? Both player vs team, and year (2019-20) over year (the last part of 1920-21)?

There have been a lot of weird factors that have altered numbers this season, if we use them all at face value and equal value. Lop off the first half or so, when it was really a disaster on so many levels, and the rotations were really patchwork, and use the stats from g 22 onward, and I wonder if maybe it tells a different story.

15-7 team record since game 1 of the season when maxi was back Feb 1 and we were at full strength. Started 1-2. 14-5 since then. Only stat that matters

[ItsGoTime]

But is probably not someone who is better than we already have.  And we need someone better than what we already have.

Can't be understated.

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(the last part of 1920-21)

That is a VERY long season!