2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[omahen]

Consistency

In the 40 games he played this season it was only 6 times he scored less than 10 points. In first 40 games of last season there were 11 games he scored less than 10 points.

[cow]

In the 40 games he played this season it was only 6 times he scored less than 10 points. In first 40 games of last season there were 11 games he scored less than 10 points.

He didn't start the first 13 games last season.  He played better once he became a starter.  He's making 18.9 million this year.  10 points is a very strange litmus test.  He's played well the past two games but was pretty awful the previous 6 or 7 games (going by memory).

[ClutchDirk]

I am against any free agency pipe dreams. Just not going to happen. The difference between the Suns and the Mavs is pretty obvious. They had and still have more assets. They could afford to give up a pick for CP3. They have more young talent and more picks. Suns did not rush the rebuild.
Mavs on the other hand have two tradeable 1sts (if they lift the restrictions on the 2025 1st). Luka and KP won´t be traded. Ignoring both Brunson is probably the most valuable asset and most posters want to keep him.

Yep 10+ years is not rushing it...

[omahen]

He didn't start the first 13 games last season.  He played better once he became a starter.  He's making 18.9 million this year.  10 points is a very strange litmus test.

Well I am sorry, but you didn't provide any data to back up your theory he is less consistent. Data I prsented actually show he is more consistent. And personally I like what I see this season, that's why I replied to you. He looks better defensively and he is way more aggresive on offense - more drives to the basket, not just shooting. Lifting team with aggresive dunks almost every game now.

[cow]

Well I am sorry, but you didn't provide any data to back up your theory he is less consistent. Data I prsented actually show he is more consistent. And personally I like what I see this season, that's why I replied to you. He looks better defensively and he is way more aggresive on offense - more drives to the basket, not just shooting. Lifting team with aggresive dunks almost every game now.

Scoring more than 10 points a game is bad data.  He isn't making Maxi/Powell money.

[omahen]

Oh, and in 40 games after he started last season, he had 8 games he scored less than 10 points.

---

Scoring more than 10 points a game is crappy data.

Still more data than you provided. And I am speaking about games he scored LESS than 10 points, not more. Which is a way to show inconsistency.

[Chicagojk]

I would have interest in Lowry.  We don't have enough to trade for him, so I am not even considering that.   As a free agent, we will see.  I don't know if I would sign him if I had to lose Hardaway.   But if we could keep Hardaway, yeah I would be interested.

Even if you factored in his age, playing for a really good coach, and the inevitable decline in play, Lowry is a winner.  It is my opinion that strong willed players are the best fit with Luka.   Lowry is that. 

When you get into big games, not only do you need talent, but you need toughness.   I would envision Lowry providing a Jason Kidd type experience here.  Kidd and Lowry are different players, but I want more toughness on this team.  When you match up against the Lakers, Nets or the other powerhouses, you need toughness.  Playoff games are a beast.  Right now, we have Luka and a few other tough guys.  But a lot of guys who are specialists.   These guys can excel in the playoffs but we need a few more players to take some of the heat off Luka.   Lowry is definitely a consideration. 

There are probably younger players and maybe guys who may be more talented, but sometimes having guys who refuse to lose beats talent.    Lowry has shown the ability to do that.   Sign me up depending on certain other moves.

[StepBackJay]

https://twitter.com/CallieCaplan/status/...9218609156
https://twitter.com/dalton_trigg/status/...0285603848

Holy crap this is huge news?

[StepBackJay]

Roby lasted a year and a half I think before he got dumped to OKC.

If Terry is already on the outs I could see him moved. He is on the 15 man roster. Mavs already had the extra high 2nd used on Bey who doesn't take up a roster spot so I could see Terry moved for a more useful role player or prospect.

[StepBackJay]

Any chance Terry and Powell find their way to OKC in exchange for George Hill?

[StepBackJay]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1373425242903871490

[MFFL]

Roby lasted a year and a half I think before he got dumped to OKC.

If Terry is already on the outs I could see him moved. He is on the 15 man roster. Mavs already had the extra high 2nd used on Bey who doesn't take up a roster spot so I could see Terry moved for a more useful role player or prospect.

Roby was only with us for six months before we dumped him to acquire the corpse of Randolph

[F Gump]

Roby was only with us for six months before we dumped him to acquire the corpse of Randolph

Yes as to the timing. But no as to why.

Mavs needed a roster spot opened up, and he was the bottom of the totem pole. So he was swapped for a cheaper player (Justin Patton) who was then waived ...

...the point of it being, they needed that roster spot to be able to get W Cauley-Stein (GS wasn't interested in taking back any salary, since they were buried in tax and trying to lower their payroll).

[StepBackJay]

Roby was only with us for six months before we dumped him to acquire the corpse of Randolph

Ah there you go

[DanSchwartzgan]

KP trade was awesome, I would repeat it 100 times out of 100. As a plus it turned out that THJ contract actually isn't all that bad, he is actually a very solid player. There is no turning back from this point. Mavs have a very solid base of 7 players. I don't believe our picks/rookies and expiring contracts aren't enough to add one piece in the starting lineup. Then add the second piece with MLE. The art of course is to nail those final two pieces of the puzzle.

I'd probably say we have 8 players with Willie Cauley-Powell serving as backup C.  So, in an 8 man rotation, bigs are KP, Maxi and WCP.  Wings are JRich, THJ and DFS and Ball handlers are Luka and Brunson.

I've long thought that the best use of assets is to trade for a keeper piece now and operate over the cap in the summer using the full MLE on another.  The fairly recent conversations about a trade that removes Powell from the cap probably provides an alternative.  You can keep one of THJ/JRich and add a FA this summer (so you don't have to lose future picks/rookies).  But, you don't get the full MLE unless you trade match for someone this summer.

That's the when, the next question is who.  Roland Beech used to be the Mav's advanced stats guy.  His site, 82games.com has a two part "simple rating" that measures production relative to one's on-court counterpart and On/Off.  You have to be careful with On/Off because who a player is replaced by makes a big difference.  You have to be careful with relative production because scheme can have an impact (especially for bigs).  WCP is (are) the worst on the team by Beech's Simple Rating.  Both impact the team quite positively on an On/Off basis, but get destroyed in relative production.  The other glaring issue is Richardson.  He holds his own vs. his positional opponent, but gets killed in On/Off.

Almost all of us look at this team and see different things as needs.  Tim Cato's recent trade piece rated 1. Elite Perimeter D, 2. Elite Perimeter Shooting and 3. Elite Shot Creation as those needs.  As much as I'd like to combine Willie Cauley and Powell into a single guy to play that role, KP's health probably demands there be two of them and there isn't a backup Center out there who solves the issues Cato has listed.  As far as TDL and Free Agency are concerned, I think it comes down to moving DFS or JRich.  I read more than one person recently say they wouldn't trade JRich for such-and-such.  I'm not sure I agree.  If we are being honest, Delon Wright put up much better numbers last year while being similarly bad in On/Off.  We couldn't move on from him fast enough.

JRich provides Elite Defensive reputation, though the D is actually better when he sits (same is true with DFS).  But, JRich kills us on Shot Creation and Perimeter Shooting at a position that should provide both.  He's the 79th rated SG by RPM.  If you look at the list of guards who make positive contributions compared to Power Wings, it would be much easier to find an upgrade for JRich than an upgrade for DFS.   So, I'm starting to take notice more of the rumors around Lonzo, Lowry, Fournier, Hill and Graham.

[MFFL]

Yes as to the timing. But no as to why.

Mavs needed a roster spot opened up, and he was the bottom of the totem pole. So he was swapped for a cheaper player (Justin Patton) who was then waived ...

...the point of it being, they needed that roster spot to be able to get W Cauley-Stein (GS wasn't interested in taking back any salary, since they were buried in tax and trying to lower their payroll).

Wrong year

We traded Roby on Jan of 2019, we traded for WCS on Jan 2020

[DanSchwartzgan]

Wrong year

We traded Roby on Jan of 2019, we traded for WCS on Jan 2020

Jan 24th of 2020 was Roby for Patton

Jan 25th of 2020 we cut Patton and traded for WCS.

[dynamicalVoid]

I'd probably say we have 8 players with Willie Cauley-Powell serving as backup C.  So, in an 8 man rotation, bigs are KP, Maxi and WCP.  Wings are JRich, THJ and DFS and Ball handlers are Luka and Brunson.

I've long thought that the best use of assets is to trade for a keeper piece now and operate over the cap in the summer using the full MLE on another.  The fairly recent conversations about a trade that removes Powell from the cap probably provides an alternative.  You can keep one of THJ/JRich and add a FA this summer (so you don't have to lose future picks/rookies).  But, you don't get the full MLE unless you trade match for someone this summer.

That's the when, the next question is who.  Roland Beech used to be the Mav's advanced stats guy.  His site, 82games.com has a two part "simple rating" that measures production relative to one's on-court counterpart and On/Off.  You have to be careful with On/Off because who a player is replaced by makes a big difference.  You have to be careful with relative production because scheme can have an impact (especially for bigs).  WCP is (are) the worst on the team by Beech's Simple Rating.  Both impact the team quite positively on an On/Off basis, but get destroyed in relative production.  The other glaring issue is Richardson.  He holds his own vs. his positional opponent, but gets killed in On/Off.

Almost all of us look at this team and see different things as needs.  Tim Cato's recent trade piece rated 1. Elite Perimeter D, 2. Elite Perimeter Shooting and 3. Elite Shot Creation as those needs.  As much as I'd like to combine Willie Cauley and Powell into a single guy to play that role, KP's health probably demands there be two of them and there isn't a backup Center out there who solves the issues Cato has listed.  As far as TDL and Free Agency are concerned, I think it comes down to moving DFS or JRich.  I read more than one person recently say they wouldn't trade JRich for such-and-such.  I'm not sure I agree.  If we are being honest, Delon Wright put up much better numbers last year while being similarly bad in On/Off.  We couldn't move on from him fast enough.

JRich provides Elite Defensive reputation, though the D is actually better when he sits (same is true with DFS).  But, JRich kills us on Shot Creation and Perimeter Shooting at a position that should provide both.  He's the 79th rated SG by RPM.  If you look at the list of guards who make positive contributions compared to Power Wings, it would be much easier to find an upgrade for JRich than an upgrade for DFS.   So, I'm starting to take notice more of the rumors around Lonzo, Lowry, Fournier, Hill and Graham.

Good post as usual.

Can I ask this forum to help me with the DFS vs JRich debate? Seems majority want to trade JRich.

Is the eye test not good indicator on these two guys?  Is my eye wrong when it tells me it sees JRich involved in more plays game in game out?  

Seems like JRich can be a real pest on defense when he is playing all out?  He seems to get deflections with his hands a lot...but stats say DFS and Luka have more per game.  I just seem to see JRich involved in more plays game in and game out.   Is that because DFS shuts his man down and teams dont pass to his man?  

Is it money?  Size and length?  Fit for this team?  Trade JRich before he walks?  JRich salary helps in trades?

I assume its money?  They are close talent wise but DFS is 1/3 the cost and better measurables? 

Neither are offensive weapons.  JRich can actually dribble...DFS just doesnt put the ball on the floor.

JRich all around seems to be the better player and provides emotional spark with his hustle plays.  Am I wrong on this?  Or...is he just sloppy with the small details?

[omahen]

I'd probably say we have 8 players with Willie Cauley-Powell serving as backup C.  So, in an 8 man rotation, bigs are KP, Maxi and WCP.  Wings are JRich, THJ and DFS and Ball handlers are Luka and Brunson.

I couldn't care less about WCS, he is just a vet min center for me. One of 100 out there. It will never be a problem to sign a couple of them. Mavs problem is they are paying 3 centers who barely play or not play at all over vet min money. Mavs went KP way and I think they fully understand KP injury limitations. You can't construct a roster paying premium back up center to be available to jump in when KP is injured but play just 10 minutes when he is not. You have to survive with WCS/Powell/Bobans of the world when KP is not available. You have to survive 20 or so regular season games without KP and hope he is available for playoffs. 

As for JRich. Wright had awesome advanced stats but eyetest looked awful. He was shooting 37 % from three... But what does it help when he is afraid to shoot it. JRich is not affraid to shoot it. In stats regard he is the other way around - good eyetest, bad stats. On defense he does his job. His defense against Lillard was great, he played great defense against Clippers to name just last couple of games. I am not sure why team stats are worse, but eye test tells me he does his job. We discussed a while ago the team performance of JRich might be affected by KP who had bad defense until some 10 games ago. As for offense, we hoped more in shot creation but it is passable imho. I am still hoping for his three point shooting to come around. Hopefully, when it matters most. I think replacing JRich with offensive oriented guy like Fournier would be a huge step in the wrong direction. I claim Curry trade was great and I would do it again. Mavs had no future with that personel totally unable to play defense. Curry for Fournier (via Richardson) is not a trade in the right direction, imho. You would have to move THJ for a better defender also. From the list you wrote Lonzo and Lowry are the only options imho. 

I listened to that Cato podcast and I agree with the discussion - there are a couple of guys we are just asking to do too much. Insert one guy in between and move them a spot lower and everything might start working well. Assuming we just upgrade JRich with a better player, lets say this is Ball. I don't think it would be enough as we would still be asking DFS and Kleber to do too much. I claim an upgrade in this case would be marginal. Unless you are bringing in a star, replacing one of the guys with a (slightly) better one is not a solution. That's why I firmly believe the solution is to add another guy to the rotation. In a sense DFS and JRich are similar players. Good defenders (perhaps not elite, but still good) with limited offense. When looking to replace any of them you have to bring in at least same amount of defensive capability to be able to have good defense. Still, I think JRich is better offensive player than DFS. That's why, when looking at upgrades, even if they come at guard, I would mainly reduce DFS minutes. I think Luka size allows us to play two guards with him. So trade for Ball or Lowry (for example) and start (for example) Ball-JRich-Luka-Kleber-KP with Brunson, THJ, DFS and a back-up center taking bench minutes.

The other hole we have is at big wing so that represents the other possible way to upgrade for me. Same way - keep the seven rotation guys and add another big wing in the rotation, reducing both Kleber and DFS minutes (but still keep them in the rotation). Collins pipedream, Gordon, OPJ and Young were often mentioned candidates who could fill that spot. 

To conclude - spending assets (this includes cap space) to replace one of the existing 7 rotation guys will bring a marginal improvement and further limit our possibility to really upgrade the team in the long term. We need to add another capable guy to the rotation.

[omahen]

Good post as usual.

Can I ask this forum to help me with the DFS vs JRich debate? Seems majority want to trade JRich.

I think it is just a matter of perception. People expected JRich to be a little short of a superstar guy, scoring 20 points per game and playing excellent defense. To be honest, I also though he will be much better offensively than he is. So, in this regard JRich is a dissapointment and in need of an upgrade for that star 20 ppg defender.

However, if you disregard expectations and salary, JRich is better than DFS. I think both are very good players to have around and I would like to keep both. But, unfortunately, Mavs need more to come to that contender status.