2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[HanspardShowerVoice]

Also I want Fournier and AG as a package deal. I like those two coming over as a package rather than just AG. Fournier is a better third scoring option than anybody we have right now.

You also see games like last night where Luka + KP and our current crew isn't enough to beat a tough defense.

 In last night's case, it was Luka + KP + THJ (21 points on 8-12 shooting and basically the only reason the game was ever close)

I do agree that having 3 starters who COMBINE for 17 points on 7 for 20 shooting in JRich, DFS and Maxi is .... not ideal if you aspire to get in, much less thrive, in the playoffs.

[dirkfansince1998]

Interesting. I know AG has all the tools to be a defensive monster. His length, size, agility, all are amazing. But there is still something lacking about him.  know from the Magic games I've seen he takes plays off more often that I'd like. But I assume that can be attributed to being on pretty bad teams.

But I agree with you, AG locked in on defense is a huge selling point.

It´s difficult to isolate Gordons impact on defense. His raw on/off numbers aren´t impressive but that´s easy to explain. In the last few years he played most of his minutes next to guys like Fournier and Vucevic. His boxscore numbers are mediocre as well. Solid rebounder. Below average steal+block numbers.
I think his hustle numbers explain some of the issues. He isn´t getting any deflections. He isn´t contesting a lot of shots.

The eye test matches the numbers. When I watch Gordon I see a good on ball defender (especially against bigger wings like Luka) that plays mediocre team/help defense. I guess taking plays off is one way to say it. He just lacks the instinct/ IQ/intangibles (however we want to call it). Athleticism alone cannot fix the lack of fundamentals.

[Mavs2021]

I hate the idea of Aaron Gordon. DFS and Maxi have half the usage rate of Gordon, better shooting percentages. The reported replacement costs for an extra 5 PPG, 2RPG, 2APG are between 1-3 first round picks. Absolutely insane. We need a real playmaker that can put the ball on the floor, not a PF that averages four assists, because he has the same usage rate as DeRozan!

[HanspardShowerVoice]

Yeah, Gordon would need a Come to Jesus sitdown with the Mavs brass like they did with Shawn Marion, let him know where he stands in the organizational offensive pecking order and how he could still be an impact player if he becomes more defensive oriented and opportunistic on offense.   He should also take a good long look at the $$$ and accolades Ben Simmons has gotten since he focused on translating his athletic ability to being an All NBA defender.

[F Gump]

I have to think that Brunson is way more valuable to Dallas than to Orlando. Here, he's on his way to filling the JJB role. In Orlando, while he'd be the starting PG for this season, it's already over for the Magic, practically speaking, and they will get Fultz back for next season. So they wouldn't see enough value in JB to make it worthwhile to include him. Send them Burke instead, if they want a PG type.

Fiddling around with the possibilities, here's a massive 4-for-4 trade 

Powell --  Johnson -- DFS -- Burke -- plus cash /draft considerations
Gordon -- Aminu -- Bamba - Ennis

[HanspardShowerVoice]

I have to think that Brunson is way more valuable to Dallas than to Orlando. Here, he's on his way to filling the JJB role. In Orlando, while he'd be the starting PG for this season, it's already over for the Magic, practically speaking, and they will get Fultz back for next season. So they wouldn't see enough value in JB to make it worthwhile to include him. Send them Burke instead, if they want a PG type.

Fiddling around with the possibilities, here's a massive 4-for-4 trade 

Powell --  Johnson -- DFS -- Burke -- plus cash /draft considerations
Gordon -- Aminu -- Bamba - Ennis

I don't think Fultz is really a true PG, and he's still not a very good scorer.    He is still more of a familiar name than a good basketball player.   Still, they did spend a 1st round pick  on Cole Anthony, but they have been trying to find a dependable PG since Jameer Nelson's glory years.

[ItsGoTime]

I have to think that Brunson is way more valuable to Dallas than to Orlando. Here, he's on his way to filling the JJB role. In Orlando, while he'd be the starting PG for this season, it's already over for the Magic, practically speaking, and they will get Fultz back for next season. So they wouldn't see enough value in JB to make it worthwhile to include him. Send them Burke instead, if they want a PG type.

Fiddling around with the possibilities, here's a massive 4-for-4 trade 

Powell --  Johnson -- DFS -- Burke -- plus cash /draft considerations
Gordon -- Aminu -- Bamba - Ennis

When I was working a trade, Aminu and Powell weren’t needed cause their contracts are the same. Powell’s runs a year longer too. I imagine we’re having to make up for that elsewhere in the trade.

[cow]

I have to think that Brunson is way more valuable to Dallas than to Orlando. Here, he's on his way to filling the JJB role. In Orlando, while he'd be the starting PG for this season, it's already over for the Magic, practically speaking, and they will get Fultz back for next season. So they wouldn't see enough value in JB to make it worthwhile to include him. Send them Burke instead, if they want a PG type.

Fiddling around with the possibilities, here's a massive 4-for-4 trade 

Powell --  Johnson -- DFS -- Burke -- plus cash /draft considerations
Gordon -- Aminu -- Bamba - Ennis

Burke has been terrible this season.  Brunson has been great.  If I'm Orlando, I'd want Brunson.  He'd start for them right away and give them the cushion to not rush Fultz back.  Worst case is that he's a solid rotational piece for them.  They could also look to flip him before the 2022 TDL.  Jalen probably has the value of a mid round FRP at this point.  That would be a lot more attractive to me than a protected 2027 pick from Dallas.

I've never liked Evan back from his days in Denver.  He's also had back issues this season.  I also have a ton of reservations about Gordon.   It's the kind of move that just feels like we are spinning our wheels.

Vucevic is really the only interesting component from the Magic.  We couldn't afford him and the fit would be curious.  I'd love Bamba as a reclamation project.

[dirkfansince1998]

Burke has been terrible this season.

But it would be "bubble" Burke in Orlando. Just don´t give him any minutes on the road. 

[F Gump]

When I was working a trade, Aminu and Powell weren’t needed cause their contracts are the same. Powell’s runs a year longer too. I imagine we’re having to make up for that elsewhere in the trade.

Powell is presumed to have slight positive (or neutral) value for his contract in this deal, so the length of his contract would be a plus not a minus.
Aminu's is presumed to have considerable negative value. He's so bad he's barely playable.

Including both Powell and Aminu is added value for Orlando.

[ItsGoTime]

Powell is presumed to have slight positive (or neutral) value for his contract in this deal, so the length of his contract would be a plus not a minus.
Aminu's is presumed to have considerable negative value. He's so bad he's barely playable.

Including both Powell and Aminu is added value for Orlando.

Don’t buy it. Powell’s contract is negative value any way you slice it. He may be a better contributor than Aminu at this point, that might be debatable, but being better than really bad doesn’t make it good. One more year too.

[F Gump]

Brunson.  He'd start for them right away and give them the cushion to not rush Fultz back. 

ORL would see him as a 3rd stringer in ORL in the long run (behind both Fultz and Anthony), and for them the short run is unimportant. So yes he would start for a couple months, but who cares? They will be tanking in a few weeks. ORL wouldn't desire him enough to make it worth your while to include him instead of Burke, imo. To them, either one would just be a slot-filler and eventual deep backup that might have some later value, as they play out the season.

[mvossman]

Powell is presumed to have slight positive (or neutral) value for his contract in this deal, so the length of his contract would be a plus not a minus.
Aminu's is presumed to have considerable negative value. He's so bad he's barely playable.

Including both Powell and Aminu is added value for Orlando.

I have a hard time believing Powell is anywhere near positive value.  Pre injury he was somewhat overpaid, and now with him still recovering and no guarantee he will ever get back to what he was it's hard to imagine any GM looking at him as an asset.

[cow]

ORL would see him as a 3rd stringer in ORL in the long run (behind both Fultz and Anthony), and for them the short run is unimportant. So yes he would start for a couple months, but who cares? They will be tanking in a few weeks. ORL wouldn't desire him enough to make it worth your while to include him instead of Burke, imo. To them, either one would just be a slot-filler and eventual deep backup that might have some later value, as they play out the season.

Who cares?  Any team that values asset management would care.  Maybe Orlando doesn't and would think Burke's dumpster fire season would have similar value to Brunson but I doubt it.

[HAguiar95]

I hate the idea of Aaron Gordon. DFS and Maxi have half the usage rate of Gordon, better shooting percentages. The reported replacement costs for an extra 5 PPG, 2RPG, 2APG are between 1-3 first round picks. Absolutely insane. We need a real playmaker that can put the ball on the floor, not a PF that averages four assists, because he has the same usage rate as DeRozan!

Disagree. DFS and Maxi have half the USG% because they literally can't handle or pass the ball. They are a turnover waiting to happen if they use their dribble. They struggle to make simple post entries for KP. Both are fine being that 5th starter like Batum for example depending on the matchup, nothing more than that. Watching him play, it's clear that AG can handle the ball (James Johnson like) and make plays for others unlike 3 out of our 5 starters.

Also ORL is not stupid, there's a bunch of teams that reportedly wants AG, if it comes to a bidding war, Dallas doesn't have the assets to compete. Right now I'd say his value is a young prospect and a 1st. MIN can ship Culver/Rubio/1st and we can't really compete with that.

Having said that, yes I agree we need a competent playmaker and that's not J-Rich nor Hardaway. Brunson is good, I wonder if he can play in our starting 5 instead of Dorian (JB-Rich-Luka-Maxi-KP), I've looked and couldn't find +/- with this crew. Anyone that can start 2-4 would fit right in the lineup (with Luka's size, even PG that's not a liability defensively would do us fine).

[ItsGoTime]

I always pictured JB starting with Fultz. I thought one of the issues with him in Phil was he wasn’t working out as the PG. I thought I remembered reports out of Orl that he wasn’t all that great at it there although showing better than he did in Phil. JB being a real floor general type where he doesn’t always have the ball in his hands, but is directing the players on the floor has been my vision of him on any team he is traded to.

[F Gump]

Don’t buy it. Powell’s contract is negative value any way you slice it. He may be a better contributor than Aminu at this point, that might be debatable, but being better than really bad doesn’t make it good. One more year too.

You don't have to buy it, but I think it's spot on that Powell would offer ORL a solid upgrade over Aminu. That's not meant as high praise for DP. There is reason to think Powell will be much better going forward. But the main reason I think that is that Aminu is so horrendous that he's basically unplayable. (Aminu is a -21 off/def rating at B-Ref. His offense is a major drain because he just can't put the ball in the basket.)

Now whether ORL would be interested in Powell, who knows. I'm just riding along with the report that the core of a Dallas offer for Gordon was Powell. Take Aminu out of the equation if you wish.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

I always pictured JB starting with Fultz. I thought one of the issues with him in Phil was he wasn’t working out as the PG. I thought I remembered reports out of Orl that he wasn’t all that great at it there although showing better than he did in Phil. JB being a real floor general type where he doesn’t always have the ball in his hands, but is directing the players on the floor has been my vision of him on any team he is traded to.

Yeah, Fultz is not a good floor general.    Really has to make it in this league as an off ball defensive specialist, but how do you make it as an offball combo guard when you shoot 25% from 3P% and TS% below 50%?  (Brunson's current TS% is 65%).   Lonzo Ball turned his career around because he turned himself into a good 3P% so he could play off ball and focus on defense, and I don't see Fultz making the same transition.

[F Gump]

Who cares?  Any team that values asset management would care.  Maybe Orlando doesn't and would think Burke's dumpster fire season would have similar value to Brunson but I doubt it.

I understand what you're saying. But I don't think it usually works that way. Teams seem to trade for what a player means for them, not for some future trade value he might offer.

And I don't think "find/add a starting PG" is very high on the ORL list of desires these days. Therefore my guess is that any ole PG-type would offer them about the same value, in their minds.
 
I don't mind trading JB, but if he's worth X to you, you want to trade him to a team that craves someone like him and will be willing to give you X or more. I want ORL to want him bad enough that you can land Gordon for Brunson-Powell-2nd rounder package, because I think some team will eventually pay a price like that. And I don't think the Magic are there -- I think if he was traded to ORL, to them he's more a minor value and you only get 50% or 70% of X.

[vfromlmf]

This dude [Gordon] is a more versatile version of Powell who would jump ahead of Kleber in the rotation, imo, not DFS. 

This is in line with my whole argument that you need to replace at least one of Kleber or DFS. They're both fine role players and starters on most teams ... BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME.

DFS is a very smart player and a good defender but he's not a game-changing stopper. Good teams leave him totally unguarded. 

Kleber is a plus defender and fantastic, if hesitant, 3pt shooter. Teams won't leave him, which makes him much more valuable than DFS on offense. 

That said, if you run Kleber off the line, he's got nothing, which is why you can't play him with another zero on offense in the playoffs.

If I had the choice, I'd move DFS for Oladipo who can be a lock-down wing defender and give this team 15 efficient points per game. Then you have a decision with JRich & Kleber in the offseason.

Replacing Kleber with Gordon certainly helps but good teams still won't guard DFS in the playoffs.