2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[DanSchwartzgan]

A few thoughts...

Dallas denials mean nothing.  We've seen this movie before.

Bertans can't be traded until March 3rd...less than a week away

I find it interesting that the likely packages from GS and Kamm's Washington deal are so similar.  Wiseman/Pick/Filler (Wiggins) vs. Avdija/Pick/Filler (Bertans and a C).

I think a Collins based deal could look roughly equivalent to these other deals with Collins/Pick/Filler (Bodganovic +).  Are the GS and Wash rumors designed to put pressure on Atlanta?

You have to be careful with these deals as you can only have two designated rookie max contracts.  Luka will be one.  Wiggins is one, but would expire before you'd extend Wiseman.  If you gave one to Collins, the player you'd get with Atlanta's pick would not be eligible.

You aren't adding a third star to Luka and KP in any of these deals (disappointing).  In fact, you are hoping you just replace KP with any Wiseman, Collins and Avdija.  But, with the lottery pick and cap room, you'd have more avenues to get that third star than you currently have.

In terms of sunk cost, count the pick we'd get as a replacement for our unprotected 2021 pick.  Count the filler as roughly equivalent to the filler we sent out in Jordan/Matthews/DSJ (nothing special there).  Count the true target of such a deal (Wiseman/Avdija/Collins) as roughly equivalent to the 2023 pick we gave up.  This doesn't sound crazy to me.

[ItsGoTime]

Went to the trade machine on that Ind/Atl package. Ind needs draft compensation, but the salaries work:

JRich/Maxi to Ind

KP/McConnell/WCS (or take their pick on any low salary player and low current impact player on the Mavs to match the amount of outgoing players If it's someone like Green, they need to add draft capital to Ind) to Atl

Turner/Collins/Gallinari/Snell to Dal

Luka/JB/TT
Snell/THJ/Burke
DFS/Green/Iwundu
Collins/Gallinari/JJ
Turner/Powell/Boban

Need to find a good defensive minded SG for JJ's salary and maybe Green's potential. Would like to go into the offseason looking to upgrade DFS's spot and put him on the bench.

---

Are the GS and Wash rumors designed to put pressure on Atlanta?

Very interesting thought.

[Kammrath]

I don't think the Mavs are going to be looking at trading KP at all until this summer at the earliest

Yes, 100% think this is the case............UNLESS.....unless there is more to the story....

[HanspardShowerVoice]

The Draymond love (at this point in his career) is as inexplicable to me as the Marcus Smart love.  I find no appeal in guards who can't shoot (even worse, a guard who can't shoot but is convinced he can) and   Curry is having  to put in an MVP type season to drag Draymond's decaying zombie corpse to a .500 season.    He's still a good passer, but he's about 3 steps behind where he used to be as a defender and the shooting .... MY GOD ... the shooting.  

35.8 FG%
22.6 3P%
67.6 FT%

You can go a long way with name recognition and swagger.

[Kammrath]

A few thoughts...

Dallas denials mean nothing.  We've seen this movie before.

Bertans can't be traded until March 3rd...less than a week away

I find it interesting that the likely packages from GS and Kamm's Washington deal are so similar.  Wiseman/Pick/Filler (Wiggins) vs. Avdija/Pick/Filler (Bertans and a C).

I think a Collins based deal could look roughly equivalent to these other deals with Collins/Pick/Filler (Bodganovic +).  Are the GS and Wash rumors designed to put pressure on Atlanta?

You have to be careful with these deals as you can only have two designated rookie max contracts.  Luka will be one.  Wiggins is one, but would expire before you'd extend Wiseman.  If you gave one to Collins, the player you'd get with Atlanta's pick would not be eligible.

You aren't adding a third star to Luka and KP in any of these deals (disappointing).  In fact, you are hoping you just replace KP with any Wiseman, Collins and Avdija.  But, with the lottery pick and cap room, you'd have more avenues to get that third star than you currently have.

In terms of sunk cost, count the pick we'd get as a replacement for our unprotected 2021 pick.  Count the filler as roughly equivalent to the filler we sent out in Jordan/Matthews/DSJ (nothing special there).  Count the true target of such a deal (Wiseman/Avdija/Collins) as roughly equivalent to the 2023 pick we gave up.  This doesn't sound crazy to me.

Great stuff as always. 

I think the smoke around GSW, ATL, WAS has this in common: They are all... 

1) underperforming teams, 
2) desperate to win now for various reasons, and 
3) have young talent to expend.

I think that is exactly the kind of team that will trade for KP. I think the Mavs are far better served aiming for young talent/pick in return for KP than an actually developed star (market for that is stupid inflated these days). 


Question for you @"DanSchwartzgan": What is your gut feeling on the timing of a KP trade if it were to happen? TDL? Summer? Next TDL?

[Kammrath]

P.S. I love the theory that ATL and DAL have been locked in discussions around KP and Collins for weeks and the "shopping KP," GSW, and WAS stuff has all been leaked in an effort for leverage in that situation.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

Yeah, the Collins for KP trade in the summer makes the most sense for me of all the speculation.

[Kammrath]

the Collins for KP trade in the summer makes the most sense for me of all the speculation.

But both teams are underperforming....so why wait?

[HanspardShowerVoice]

Great stuff as always. 

I think the smoke around GSW, ATL, WAS has this in common: They are all... 

1) underperforming teams, 
2) desperate to win now for various reasons, and 
3) have young talent to expend.

I think that is exactly the kind of team that will trade for KP. I think the Mavs are far better served aiming for young talent/pick in return for KP than an actually developed star (market for that is stupid inflated these days). 


Question for you @"DanSchwartzgan": What is your gut feeling on the timing of a KP trade if it were to happen? TDL? Summer? Next TDL?

Also similar analytic driven front office philosophies.   The Atlanta GM came from Golden State's front office.    The current Wizzards GM was promoted up from his previous position as head of their analytics department, and they plucked two high level front office personnel from the Clippers to put underneath him.    The appeal of KP for the Hawks makes sense that they also apparently highly valued Gallo ... that's what KP has always been to me (at least on office), a taller Gallo.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

But both teams are underperforming....so why wait?

Mavs have won 4 out of their last 5 after having the worst luck in the league in COVID absences and strength of schedule.    They are still entirely in line to  make the playoffs, and adding Collins ... who will still need time to adjust to new teammates and new system ... isn't going to really improve where they ultimately stand in the West this season.    Either with Collins or KP they're going to barely squeak into the playoff (or barely miss) and get steamrolled by a much better all around team.  

John Collins is the leader of the Hawks clubhouse and the Hawks are far and away better when he's on the floor in every metric.   If they're GM and HC's jobs are on the line for making the playoffs, why are they in a rush to trade him now and shake up their entire team for the rest of the year for a center who is still playing his way into shape (and possibly has a back problem) when that trade is still going to be on the table in the summer?   Also, what's the harm for Atlanta to wait and see if KP can stay healthy for longer than 2 weeks?

[Hypermav]

A few thoughts...

Dallas denials mean nothing.  We've seen this movie before.

Bertans can't be traded until March 3rd...less than a week away

I find it interesting that the likely packages from GS and Kamm's Washington deal are so similar.  Wiseman/Pick/Filler (Wiggins) vs. Avdija/Pick/Filler (Bertans and a C).

I think a Collins based deal could look roughly equivalent to these other deals with Collins/Pick/Filler (Bodganovic +).  Are the GS and Wash rumors designed to put pressure on Atlanta?

You have to be careful with these deals as you can only have two designated rookie max contracts.  Luka will be one.  Wiggins is one, but would expire before you'd extend Wiseman.  If you gave one to Collins, the player you'd get with Atlanta's pick would not be eligible.

You aren't adding a third star to Luka and KP in any of these deals (disappointing).  In fact, you are hoping you just replace KP with any Wiseman, Collins and Avdija.  But, with the lottery pick and cap room, you'd have more avenues to get that third star than you currently have.

In terms of sunk cost, count the pick we'd get as a replacement for our unprotected 2021 pick.  Count the filler as roughly equivalent to the filler we sent out in Jordan/Matthews/DSJ (nothing special there).  Count the true target of such a deal (Wiseman/Avdija/Collins) as roughly equivalent to the 2023 pick we gave up.  This doesn't sound crazy to me.

Good to know on the designated rookie max contracts.

I guess I would choose Collins but the other two could have higher upside in this scenario?  Not sure on that...

Still, put me in Camp Beal until this is sorted out.  If KP is here and playing well next year, then I am happy with that outcome.

[HanspardShowerVoice]

So what is the appeal for Wizards to trade Beal in exchange for KP + Making the worst  contract in the NBA disappear overnight + a young player + a 1sdt round pick?  


Mavs
Beal
Westbrook

Washington
KP 
THJ Expiring
Johnson Expiring
Josh Green
1st Round Pick

Washington would basically get a clean slate, but it would be a PR nightmare from the casual fan who doesn't realize that Westbrook is a gigantic liability that they would be unloading.

[Branduil]

A few thoughts...

Dallas denials mean nothing.  We've seen this movie before.

Bertans can't be traded until March 3rd...less than a week away

I find it interesting that the likely packages from GS and Kamm's Washington deal are so similar.  Wiseman/Pick/Filler (Wiggins) vs. Avdija/Pick/Filler (Bertans and a C).

I think a Collins based deal could look roughly equivalent to these other deals with Collins/Pick/Filler (Bodganovic +).  Are the GS and Wash rumors designed to put pressure on Atlanta?

You have to be careful with these deals as you can only have two designated rookie max contracts.  Luka will be one.  Wiggins is one, but would expire before you'd extend Wiseman.  If you gave one to Collins, the player you'd get with Atlanta's pick would not be eligible.

You aren't adding a third star to Luka and KP in any of these deals (disappointing).  In fact, you are hoping you just replace KP with any Wiseman, Collins and Avdija.  But, with the lottery pick and cap room, you'd have more avenues to get that third star than you currently have.

In terms of sunk cost, count the pick we'd get as a replacement for our unprotected 2021 pick.  Count the filler as roughly equivalent to the filler we sent out in Jordan/Matthews/DSJ (nothing special there).  Count the true target of such a deal (Wiseman/Avdija/Collins) as roughly equivalent to the 2023 pick we gave up.  This doesn't sound crazy to me.

Collins is easily the best get of those 3, I think. Wiseman could be good too but that would also include the bitterest pill to swallow(Wiggins).

[ItsGoTime]

Yeah, the Collins for KP trade in the summer makes the most sense for me of all the speculation.

I think if KP stays healthy for the rest of the year and into the playoffs that he will be worth much more than just Collins.

[StepBackJay]

So Washington is interesting what is the trade there? It's obviously not going to be Beal. And Washington isn't going to pair Beal with Westbrook either to "start over" because that's not how these deals go.

Washington would want KP + Beal on their team so then what do the Mavs get? I would imagine Bertans would be one piece for both salary matching and he fits the stretch big spot Rick likes. Robin Lopez would also be part of the salary filler and he's a useful player. 

My guess then is that Mavs would either want a young player or 2 picks. For the MBT to not lose face if they got 2 picks including this year's WAS pick back for KP + Bertans who is a good player (banged up some this year) then they are no worse than where they were two years ago.

The original KP trade was mostly taking on THJ's deal and we all know that THJ turned out to be a good player + giving up two picks. If Mavs get back a useful player or two plus get back 2 picks then they are still in good shape. I think short term Bertans would fit our system well and then Mavs would have ammunition and cap space to make a big move.

People would be disappointed that Mavs didn't get a star back for KP but KP isn't a star himself at this point so getting one back probably won't happen.

I could see the Mavs armed with a couple picks and cap space being able to wrestle Collins away from ATL. Maybe they send ATL one of those picks in a S&T situation.

You are still able to resign Rich and THJ to keep those assets + 1 more pick in your arsenal.

Your top 8 guys then are:
Luka
Rich
THJ
DFS
Collins
Bertans
Maxi
Brunson

Mavs would definitely have the best offense in the league but would need to figure out defense.

[haveitall]

I think that its not a good time to trade KP.  He's had injuries but you need him to play at a high level before dealing him which means its unlikely before the TDL.  I think he will either come back and play well or not at all.  His ceiling is very high and I would still see what he has this year before doing a knee jerk trade.  If someone makes a great offer sure but no one will do it at this this time.

[StepBackJay]

I think that its not a good time to trade KP.  He's had injuries but you need him to play at a high level before dealing him which means its unlikely before the TDL.  I think he will either come back and play well or not at all.  His ceiling is very high and I would still see what he has this year before doing a knee jerk trade.  If someone makes a great offer sure but no one will do it at this this time.

So the thing we don't know is if KP is rumbling behind the scenes. If he is being a good soldier but struggling a little bit as he gets healthier then maybe this whole thing blows over.

If KP is part of a locker room problem then the Mavs have shown in the past that they aren't very patient with that. They value a happy locker room so if someone is causing problems then they will get rid of them. We don't know if Rick and KP have a good relationship or not. We will see.

[StepBackJay]

The other thing to note is that I believe MBT understands the limited window they have with Doncic to build a contender and so they have been more aggressive making moves than maybe they would have been in the past.

[ItsGoTime]

We traded FOR KP while he was injured. That is the bottom of his value. Getting back the same type of package isn't gonna work for me. If he can't get back MORE than we gave up, I'm out on a KP trade and everyone else should be too. He might get worse, there is that possibility. I see that as a small possibility with the bigger one being that he gets much better.

[ClutchDirk]

One key item is we have not heard anything from KP's brother indicating anything is wrong...